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NE @ CHI
FINAL
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Sun 8:30 AM CT
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Sun 12:00 PM CT
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Sun 12:00 PM CT
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Sun 12:00 PM CT
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Sun 12:00 PM CT
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Sun 12:00 PM CT
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Sun 3:25 PM CT
KC @ SEA
Sun 7:20 PM CT
DAL @ PHI
Mon 7:15 PM CTSun, Oct 25 · 7:20 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · 5-0
Model 20.8 · ESPN 52.3%
@
Proj total 43
SEA
Seattle Seahawks · 3-3
Model 22.1 · ESPN 47.3%
52°F · gusts 7 mph · precip 59%· Lumen Field
Markets
Moneyline · Spread · Total
Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line
Moneyline
KC ML
Fair +123 · Model 44.7%
+126
CZREdge +0.5% · EV +1.0%
Kelly ¼: 0.20% of bankroll ($2.03 of $1000)
SEA ML
Fair -123 · Model 55.3%
-142
DKEdge -3.4% · EV -5.8%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Spread
KC +2.5
Fair -115 · Model 52.0%
-100
UNIEdge +2.0% · EV +4.0%
Kelly ¼: 1.00% of bankroll ($10.00 of $1000)
SEA -3
Fair +115 · Model 46.5%
+100
DKEdge -3.5% · EV -7.0%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Total
Over 42.5
Fair -103 · Model 50.7%
-107
CZREdge -1.0% · EV -1.9%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Under 42.5
Fair +103 · Model 49.3%
-108
FDEdge -2.6% · EV -5.0%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Line shopping · every book
| Book | KC ML | SEA ML | KC Spread | SEA Spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +120 | -142 | +3-120 | -3+100 | o42.5-110 | u42.5-110 |
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 | +2.5-104 | -2.5-118 | o42.5-112 | u42.5-108 |
| BetMGM | +120 | -145 | +2.5-102 | -2.5-118 | o42.5-108 | u42.5-110 |
| Caesars | +126 | -150 | +2.5-103 | -2.5-118 | o42.5-107 | u42.5-113 |
| bet365 | +124 | -148 | +2.5-103 | -2.5-117 | o42.5-111 | u42.5-109 |
| BetRivers | +117 | -143 | +2.5-105 | -2.5-117 | o42.5-109 | u42.5-112 |
| Unibet | +120 | -149 | +2.5-100 | -2.5-125 | o42.5-111 | u42.5-110 |
| Consensus | +120 | -145 | +2.5-103 | -2.5-117 | o42.5-110 | u42.5-110 |
| Opening Line | +145 | -175 | +3-110 | -3-110 | o45.5-110 | u45.5-110 |
Game Props
KC @ SEA · Player Props
46 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes KC QB · vs SEA | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.7 | +0.2 | +157UD | -110*DK | Over 1.5 | 50.1 | 38.9 | -100 | +11.2% | +28.8% | 0— | ||
Patrick Mahomes KC QB · vs SEA | Carries | 3.5 | 3.92 | +0.42 | +127UD | -110*DK | Over 3.5 | 51.1 | 44.1 | -104 | +7.0% | +16.0% | 0— | ||
 AJ Barner SEA TE · vs KC | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.72 | +0.22 | -110*DK | +123UD | Under 2.5 | 49.7 | 44.8 | +101 | +4.9% | +10.8% | 0— | ||
 Sam Darnold SEA QB · vs KC | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.43 | -0.07 | +124UD | -110*DK | Over 1.5 | 48.3 | 44.6 | +107 | +3.7% | +8.2% | 0— | ||
Patrick Mahomes KC QB · vs SEA | Pass Yds | 221.5 | 259.32 | +37.82 | o224.5+103UD | -110*DK | Over 224.5 | 53.0 | 49.3 | -113 | +3.7% | +7.5% | +1 | ||
 Kenneth Walker III KC RB · vs SEA | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.37 | -1.13 | +124UD | -110*DK | Under 3.5 | 56.0 | 52.4 | -127 | +3.6% | +6.9% | 0— | ||
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR · vs KC | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.94 | -0.06 | +121UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 48.3 | 45.2 | +107 | +3.0% | +6.7% | 0 | ||
Patrick Mahomes KC QB · vs SEA | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.27 | -0.73 | +448UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 19.4 | 18.2 | +415 | +1.1% | +6.3% | 0 | ||
Patrick Mahomes KC QB · vs SEA | Completions | 20.5 | 21.67 | +1.17 | +103UD | -110*DK | Over 20.5 | 52.2 | 49.3 | -109 | +2.9% | +6.0% | +1 | ||
 Travis Kelce KC TE · vs SEA | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.21 | -0.29 | +115UD | -110*DK | Over 4.5 | 48.2 | 46.5 | +107 | +1.7% | +3.6% | 0— | ||
 Rashid Shaheed SEA WR · vs KC | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.71 | +0.21 | +106UD | -110*DK | Over 2.5 | 50.2 | 48.5 | -101 | +1.7% | +3.4% | 0— | ||
 Xavier Worthy KC WR · vs SEA | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.67 | -0.83 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Under 4.5 | 54.1 | 52.4 | -118 | +1.7% | +3.3% | 0— | ||
Sam Darnold SEA QB · vs KC | Completions | 19.5 | 18.44 | -1.06 | -110*DK | -103UD | Under 19.5 | 52.4 | 50.7 | -110 | +1.7% | +3.3% | 0— | ||
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR · vs KC | Receptions | 6.5 | 7.7 | +1.2 | -110*DK | +120UD | Under 6.5 | 46.9 | 45.5 | +113 | +1.4% | +3.2% | 0— | ||
 Cooper Kupp SEA WR · vs KC | Rec Yds | 24.5 | 32.73 | +8.23 | -110*DK | +100UD | Over 24.5 | 53.7 | 52.4 | -116 | +1.3% | +2.5% | 0— | ||
Kenneth Walker III KC RB · vs SEA | Rec Yds | 20.5 | 17.93 | -2.57 | -110*DK | u24.5-167UD | Under 24.5 | 64.1 | 62.5 | -179 | +1.6% | +2.5% | +1 | ||
Xavier Worthy KC WR · vs SEA | Rec Yds | 49.5 | 39.78 | -9.72 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Under 49.5 | 53.6 | 52.4 | -116 | +1.2% | +2.3% | 0— | ||
Sam Darnold SEA QB · vs KC | Rush Yds | 5.5 | 6.37 | +0.87 | o4.5-112UD | -110*DK | Over 4.5 | 53.9 | 52.8 | -117 | +1.1% | +2.0% | 0— | ||
Cooper Kupp SEA WR · vs KC | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.77 | +0.27 | +102UD | -110*DK | Over 2.5 | 50.5 | 49.5 | -102 | +1.0% | +2.0% | 0— | ||
Patrick Mahomes KC QB · vs SEA | Rush Yds | 14.5 | 19.73 | +5.23 | -110*DK | -108UD | Over 14.5 | 53.4 | 52.4 | -115 | +1.0% | +1.9% | 0 | ||
Rashid Shaheed SEA WR · vs KC | Rec Yds | 24.5 | 31.47 | +6.97 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Over 24.5 | 53.3 | 52.4 | -114 | +0.9% | +1.8% | -1 | ||
Kenneth Walker III KC RB · vs SEA | Rush Yds | 84.5 | 100.74 | +16.24 | -110*DK | u79.5+109UD | Over 84.5 | 52.8 | 52.4 | -112 | +0.4% | +0.8% | -7 | ||
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR · vs KC | Rec Yds | 93.5 | 113.89 | +20.39 | -110*DK | u89.5+106UD | Over 93.5 | 52.7 | 52.4 | -111 | +0.3% | +0.6% | +1 | ||
Travis Kelce KC TE · vs SEA | Rec Yds | 46.5 | 55.47 | +8.97 | -110*DK | u49.5-125UD | Over 46.5 | 52.4 | 52.4 | -110 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0 | ||
Kenneth Walker III KC RB · vs SEA | Carries | 18.5 | 17.56 | -0.94 | -108UD | -110*DK | Under 18.5 | 52.2 | 52.4 | -109 | -0.2% | -0.3% | 0— | ||
Kenneth Walker III KC RB · vs SEA | Anytime TD | 1+ | 1.02 | +0.02 | -139UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 57.7 | 58.2 | -136 | -0.5% | -0.8% | 0 | ||
 Rashee Rice KC WR · vs SEA | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.5 | -0.5 | +177UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 35.7 | 36.1 | +180 | -0.4% | -1.1% | 0— | ||
AJ Barner SEA TE · vs KC | Rec Yds | 24.5 | 26.01 | +1.51 | -109UD | -110*DK | Over 24.5 | 50.9 | 52.2 | -104 | -1.3% | -2.4% | -1 | ||
 Zach Charbonnet SEA RB · vs KC | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.75 | -0.25 | -102UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 49.1 | 50.5 | +104 | -1.4% | -2.8% | 0— | ||
Travis Kelce KC TE · vs SEA | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.35 | -0.65 | +194UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 31.1 | 34.0 | +222 | -2.9% | -8.6% | 0 | ||
Patrick Mahomes KC QB · vs SEA | First TD | 1st | 4.2% | +0.7pp | +2030UD | — | First TD | 4.2 | 4.7 | +2305 | -0.5% | -11.4% | — | ||
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA WR · vs KC | First TD | 1st | 14.5% | +2.5pp | +509UD | — | First TD | 14.5 | 16.4 | +591 | -1.9% | -11.8% | — | ||
AJ Barner SEA TE · vs KC | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.26 | -0.74 | +235UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 26.3 | 29.9 | +280 | -3.5% | -11.9% | 0 | ||
Kenneth Walker III KC RB · vs SEA | First TD | 1st | 17.2% | +2pp | +380UD | — | First TD | 17.2 | 20.8 | +482 | -3.7% | -17.5% | — | ||
 Emanuel Wilson SEA RB · vs KC | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.37 | -0.63 | -102UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 41.5 | 50.5 | +141 | -9.0% | -17.8% | 0— | ||
Cooper Kupp SEA WR · vs KC | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.15 | -0.85 | +329UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 19.0 | 23.3 | +426 | -4.3% | -18.5% | 0— | ||
Rashee Rice KC WR · vs SEA | First TD | 1st | 8.9% | +0.7pp | +785UD | — | First TD | 8.9 | 11.3 | +1019 | -2.4% | -20.9% | — | ||
Rashid Shaheed SEA WR · vs KC | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.14 | -0.86 | +283UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 20.6 | 26.1 | +385 | -5.5% | -21.1% | 0— | ||
Xavier Worthy KC WR · vs SEA | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.14 | -0.86 | +177UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 27.7 | 36.1 | +261 | -8.4% | -23.3% | 0— | ||
Zach Charbonnet SEA RB · vs KC | First TD | 1st | 14.1% | +0.6pp | +443UD | — | First TD | 14.1 | 18.4 | +609 | -4.3% | -23.4% | — |
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