Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NFL Terminal

Game 7 of 14

PrevMIA @ NYJ

NextCIN @ BAL

Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 1-5

Model 20.9 · ESPN 42.9%

Proj total 46.4

CAR

Carolina Panthers · 3-2

Model 25.4 · ESPN 56.8%

63°F · gusts 20 mph · precip 0%· Bank of America Stadium

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

TB ML

Fair +157 · Model 38.9%

+136

Edge -3.5% · EV -8.2%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

CAR ML

Fair -157 · Model 61.1%

-152

Edge +0.8% · EV +1.3%

Kelly ¼: 0.49% of bankroll ($4.93 of $1000)

Spread

TB +2.5

Fair +111 · Model 45.9%

+106

365

Edge -2.6% · EV -5.4%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

CAR -3

Fair -111 · Model 52.6%

+105

CZR

Edge +3.8% · EV +7.8%

Kelly ¼: 1.86% of bankroll ($18.64 of $1000)

Total

Over 44

Fair -111 · Model 54.1%

-112

Edge +1.3% · EV +2.4%

Kelly ¼: 0.67% of bankroll ($6.73 of $1000)

Under 44.5

Fair +111 · Model 47.4%

-110

Edge -5.0% · EV -9.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	TB ML	CAR ML	TB Spread	CAR Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	+136	-162	+3-105	-3-115	o44.5-110	u44.5-110
FanDuel	+136	-162	+2.5-100	-2.5-122	o44.5-110	u44.5-110
BetMGM	+130	-155	+3-118	-3-102	o44.5-108	u44.5-110
Caesars	+133	-159	+3-122	-3+105	o44.5-110	u44.5-110
bet365	+134	-159	+2.5+106	-2.5-126	o44.5-110	u44.5-110
BetRivers	+128	-152	+3-114	-3-107	o44-112	u44-108
Unibet	+130	-156	+3.5-133	-3.5+108	o44.5-110	u44.5-111
Consensus	+134	-161	+3+100	-3-118	o44.5-110	u44.5-110
Opening Line	-125	+105	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	o45.5-110	u45.5-110

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Panthers project as modest home value

Carolina is projected to win 25.4-20.9, with the model making the Panthers -4.5 on a market dealing -3 at plus money. The total sits close to fair, but the model still shows a small edge to Over 44 in a game with a 46.4 projected total. Tampa Bay’s 1-5 record and Baker Mayfield’s questionable tag add volatility to the underdog side.

Model margin is CAR by 4.5, while CAR -3 is priced at +105 with 52.6% cover probability and +7.83% EV.
Moneyline is tighter: CAR ML is only a small edge at -152 with 61.1% model win probability and +1.3% EV.
Projected total is 46.4 versus a fair total of 46.5; Over 44 still carries a modest +2.43% EV with 54.1% model probability.
Recent form favors Carolina: Panthers are 3-2 and 3-2 in their last five, while Tampa Bay is 1-5 overall and 1-4 in its last five.
Weather looks playable overall at 63 degrees with no precipitation, though 20 mph gusts could create some passing and kicking variance.

Props to watch

Tommy Tremble Under 1.5 Receptions (+157): highest listed prop EV at +22.59%.
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Pass TDs (+160): strong payout with +20.38% EV, but his questionable status makes availability important.
Chuba Hubbard Under 17.5 Carries (-110): 57.1% model probability and +9.01% EV, consistent with a workload staying below a heavy volume threshold.

Lean: CAR -3

Injury Report

Christian Rozeboom LBInjured Reserve · Finger
Luke Goedeke OTQuestionable · Calf
Zyon McCollum CBQuestionable · Illness
Baker Mayfield QBQuestionable · Thumb
Emeka Egbuka WRQuestionable · Concussion

CAR

Jaelan Phillips LBDoubtful · Hamstring
Bam Martin-Scott LBInjured Reserve · Hamstring
Thomas Incoom LBQuestionable · Calf
Jonathon Brooks RBInjured Reserve · Abdomen
Cam Jackson DTInjured Reserve · Shoulder

Recent Form · Series

LLLWL

CAR

LWLWW

Game Props

TB @ CAR · Player Props

56 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Tommy Tremble CAR TE · vs TB	Receptions	1.5	2.33	+0.83	-110*DK	+157UD	Under 1.5	47.7	38.9	+110	+8.8%	+22.6%	-1
Baker Mayfield TB QB · vs CAR	Pass TDs	1.5	1.16	-0.34	+160UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	46.3	38.5	+116	+7.8%	+20.4%	0—
Bucky Irving TB RB · vs CAR	Receptions	2.5	2.9	+0.4	-110*DK	+137UD	Under 2.5	48.9	42.2	+104	+6.7%	+15.9%	0—
Cade Otton TB TE · vs CAR	Receptions	3.5	3.38	-0.12	-110*DK	+124UD	Under 3.5	51.3	44.6	-105	+6.7%	+14.9%	0—
Darren Waller CAR TE · vs TB	Receptions	2.5	2.63	+0.13	+124UD	-110*DK	Over 2.5	49.8	44.6	+101	+5.2%	+11.6%	0—
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB · vs TB	Carries	17.5	13.86	-3.64	+100UD	-110*DK	Under 17.5	57.1	52.4	-133	+4.7%	+9.0%	0—
Darren Waller CAR TE · vs TB	Anytime TD	1+	0.52	-0.48	+239UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	32.1	29.5	+212	+2.6%	+8.8%	0
Cade Otton TB TE · vs CAR	Rec Yds	39.5	32.9	-6.6	-110*DK	+100UD	Under 39.5	53.0	50.0	-113	+3.0%	+6.0%	0—
Darren Waller CAR TE · vs TB	First TD	1st	10.5%	+1.9pp	+910UD	—	First TD	10.5	9.9	+854	+0.6%	+5.8%	—
John Metchie III CAR WR · vs TB	Receptions	1.5	2.06	+0.56	+102UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	52.2	49.5	-109	+2.7%	+5.4%	0—
Tetairoa McMillan CAR WR · vs TB	Receptions	5.5	5.39	-0.11	+114UD	-110*DK	Over 5.5	49.0	46.7	+104	+2.3%	+4.9%	0—
Bryce Young CAR QB · vs TB	Pass TDs	1.5	1.86	+0.36	-110*DK	+114UD	Under 1.5	48.8	46.7	+105	+2.1%	+4.4%	0—
Jalen Coker CAR WR · vs TB	Receptions	5.5	4.5	-1	+111UD	-110*DK	Under 5.5	54.3	52.4	-119	+1.9%	+3.7%	0—
Baker Mayfield TB QB · vs CAR	Rush Yds	16.5	22.13	+5.63	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 16.5	53.8	52.4	-116	+1.4%	+2.7%	0—
Chris Godwin Jr. TB WR · vs CAR	Receptions	4.5	3.77	-0.73	+120UD	-110*DK	Under 4.5	53.7	52.4	-116	+1.3%	+2.5%	0—
Tommy Tremble CAR TE · vs TB	Rec Yds	15.5	21.11	+5.61	-110*DK	u14.5+113UD	Over 15.5	53.7	52.4	-116	+1.3%	+2.5%	-1
Kenny Gainwell TB RB · vs CAR	Receptions	2.5	2.92	+0.42	+100UD	-110*DK	Over 2.5	51.2	50.0	-105	+1.2%	+2.4%	0—
Bucky Irving TB RB · vs CAR	Rec Yds	16.5	18.48	+1.98	o14.5-130UD	-110*DK	Over 14.5	57.8	56.5	-137	+1.3%	+2.3%	0—
Darren Waller CAR TE · vs TB	Rec Yds	20.5	30.42	+9.92	-110*DK	u24.5-125UD	Over 20.5	53.4	52.4	-115	+1.0%	+1.9%	-2
Baker Mayfield TB QB · vs CAR	Pass Yds	212.5	211.99	-0.51	-110*DK	u224.5-136UD	Under 224.5	58.7	57.6	-142	+1.1%	+1.9%	-1
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB · vs TB	Receptions	2.5	2.11	-0.39	+116UD	-110*DK	Under 2.5	53.1	52.4	-113	+0.7%	+1.4%	0—
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB · vs TB	Rush Yds	69.5	62.47	-7.03	-110*DK	-105UD	Under 69.5	51.9	51.2	-108	+0.7%	+1.3%	-1
Kenny Gainwell TB RB · vs CAR	Rec Yds	13.5	17.54	+4.04	-110*DK	u14.5-121UD	Over 13.5	52.8	52.4	-112	+0.4%	+0.8%	0—
Tetairoa McMillan CAR WR · vs TB	Rec Yds	71.5	78.84	+7.34	o69.5-112UD	-110*DK	Over 69.5	53.2	52.8	-114	+0.4%	+0.7%	+1
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB · vs TB	Rec Yds	14.5	16.05	+1.55	-103UD	-110*DK	Over 14.5	51.1	50.7	-104	+0.4%	+0.7%	+2
John Metchie III CAR WR · vs TB	Rec Yds	11.5	17.12	+5.62	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 11.5	52.7	52.4	-111	+0.3%	+0.6%	0—
Jalen Coker CAR WR · vs TB	Rec Yds	66.5	57.78	-8.72	-110*DK	u69.5-125UD	Under 69.5	55.9	55.6	-127	+0.3%	+0.6%	+1
Kenny Gainwell TB RB · vs CAR	Rush Yds	11.5	18.74	+7.24	-110*DK	u9.5+126UD	Over 11.5	52.6	52.4	-111	+0.2%	+0.4%	0—
Bryce Young CAR QB · vs TB	Rush Yds	10.5	8.78	-1.72	-110*DK	u9.5+109UD	Under 9.5	47.9	47.8	+109	+0.1%	+0.1%	0
Kenny Gainwell TB RB · vs CAR	First TD	1st	6.3%	+0.8pp	+1490UD	—	First TD	6.3	6.3	+1496	-0.0%	-0.3%	—
Bucky Irving TB RB · vs CAR	Carries	15.5	16.52	+1.02	-109UD	-110*DK	Over 15.5	51.8	52.2	-107	-0.3%	-0.7%	0—
Chris Godwin Jr. TB WR · vs CAR	Rec Yds	42.5	37.6	-4.9	o39.5-129UD	-110*DK	Under 42.5	52.0	52.4	-108	-0.4%	-0.7%	+1
Tommy Tremble CAR TE · vs TB	Anytime TD	1+	0.35	-0.65	+267UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	27.0	27.2	+270	-0.3%	-0.9%	0—
Tommy Tremble CAR TE · vs TB	First TD	1st	8.8%	+1.1pp	+1020UD	—	First TD	8.8	8.9	+1035	-0.1%	-1.3%	—
Baker Mayfield TB QB · vs CAR	First TD	1st	3.9%	+0.5pp	+2410UD	—	First TD	3.9	4.0	+2456	-0.1%	-1.8%	—
Bryce Young CAR QB · vs TB	Completions	22.5	21.89	-0.61	-106UD	-110*DK	Under 22.5	51.2	52.4	-105	-1.2%	-2.3%	+1
Bryce Young CAR QB · vs TB	Pass Yds	253.5	255.75	+2.25	-110*DK	u249.5+106UD	Under 249.5	47.3	48.5	+111	-1.2%	-2.5%	+2
Kenny Gainwell TB RB · vs CAR	Anytime TD	1+	0.29	-0.71	+314UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	23.4	24.2	+327	-0.8%	-3.1%	0
Bucky Irving TB RB · vs CAR	Rush Yds	66.5	68.72	+2.22	-110*DK	u69.5-125UD	Over 66.5	50.6	52.4	-102	-1.8%	-3.4%	0
Baker Mayfield TB QB · vs CAR	Completions	20.5	20.24	-0.26	-108UD	-110*DK	Under 20.5	50.5	52.4	-102	-1.9%	-3.6%	0—

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