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Game 11 of 14
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FINAL
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GB @ DET
Sun 3:25 PM CT
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Sun 3:25 PM CT
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Sun 7:20 PM CT
DAL @ PHI
Mon 7:15 PM CTSun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds
GB
Green Bay Packers · 4-2
Model 24.7 · ESPN 40.8%
@
Proj total 53
DET
Detroit Lions · 3-2
Model 28.3 · ESPN 58.9%
67°F · gusts 12 mph · precip 0%· Ford Field
Markets
Moneyline · Spread · Total
Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line
Moneyline
GB ML
Fair +153 · Model 39.5%
+155
365Edge +0.3% · EV +0.7%
Kelly ¼: 0.12% of bankroll ($1.17 of $1000)
DET ML
Fair -153 · Model 60.5%
-162
BREdge -1.3% · EV -2.1%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Spread
GB +3
Fair +106 · Model 48.6%
-100
FDEdge -1.4% · EV -2.8%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
DET -3.5
Fair -106 · Model 49.9%
-103
CZREdge -0.8% · EV -1.7%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Total
Over 52.5
Fair +100 · Model 53.0%
-120
FDEdge -1.6% · EV -2.9%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Under 53.5
Fair -100 · Model 50.1%
-105
DKEdge -1.1% · EV -2.2%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Line shopping · every book
| Book | GB ML | DET ML | GB Spread | DET Spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +142 | -170 | +3-105 | -3-115 | o53.5-115 | u53.5-105 |
| FanDuel | +148 | -176 | +3-100 | -3-122 | o52.5-120 | u52.5-102 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -175 | +3-102 | -3-118 | o53.5-110 | u53.5-108 |
| Caesars | +150 | -179 | +3.5-117 | -3.5-103 | o53.5-110 | u53.5-110 |
| bet365 | +155 | -185 | +3.5-112 | -3.5-108 | o53.5-112 | u53.5-108 |
| BetRivers | +135 | -162 | +3-106 | -3-115 | o53.5-108 | u53.5-113 |
| Unibet | +150 | -182 | +3.5-111 | -3.5-110 | o53.5-111 | u53.5-110 |
| Consensus | +141 | -175 | +3-105 | -3-116 | o53.5-112 | u53.5-108 |
| Opening Line | +120 | -142 | +2.5-110 | -2.5-110 | o50.5-110 | u50.5-110 |
Game Props
GB @ DET · Player Props
60 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jared Goff DET QB · vs GB | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2.22 | -0.28 | +174UD | -110*DK | Over 2.5 | 47.5 | 36.5 | +111 | +11.0% | +30.1% | +1 | ||
 Jordan Love GB QB · vs DET | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.71 | +0.21 | -110*DK | +139UD | Under 1.5 | 49.8 | 41.8 | +101 | +8.0% | +19.0% | 0 | ||
 Pierre Strong Jr. GB RB · vs DET | Rush Yds | 9.5 | 12.17 | +2.67 | +116UD | -110*DK | Over 9.5 | 51.8 | 46.3 | -107 | +5.5% | +11.9% | -1 | ||
 Savion Williams GB WR · vs DET | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.8 | +0.3 | +120UD | -110*DK | Over 2.5 | 50.6 | 45.5 | -102 | +5.2% | +11.3% | 0— | ||
 Sam LaPorta DET TE · vs GB | Receptions | 5.5 | 4.98 | -0.52 | o4.5-143UD | -110*DK | Over 4.5 | 65.0 | 58.8 | -186 | +6.2% | +10.5% | 0 | ||
Pierre Strong Jr. GB RB · vs DET | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.33 | +0.83 | +110UD | -110*DK | Over 1.5 | 52.3 | 47.6 | -110 | +4.7% | +9.8% | 0— | ||
 MarShawn Lloyd GB RB · vs DET | First TD | 1st | 4.8% | +1.2pp | +2200UD | — | First TD | 4.8 | 4.3 | +1999 | +0.4% | +9.6% | — | ||
Pierre Strong Jr. GB RB · vs DET | Rec Yds | 7.5 | 13.33 | +5.83 | o9.5+139UD | -110*DK | Over 9.5 | 45.7 | 41.8 | +119 | +3.8% | +9.2% | 0 | ||
MarShawn Lloyd GB RB · vs DET | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.4 | -0.6 | +306UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 26.6 | 24.6 | +276 | +2.0% | +8.0% | 0— | ||
 Matthew Golden GB WR · vs DET | Receptions | 5.5 | 3.83 | -1.67 | o4.5-152UD | -110*DK | Under 5.5 | 56.5 | 52.4 | -130 | +4.1% | +7.9% | +1 | ||
 Josh Jacobs GB RB · vs DET | Carries | 12.5 | 15.6 | +3.1 | -110*DK | +105UD | Over 12.5 | 55.9 | 52.4 | -127 | +3.5% | +6.7% | +2 | ||
Josh Jacobs GB RB · vs DET | Rec Yds | 9.5 | 18.8 | +9.3 | +103UD | -110*DK | Over 9.5 | 52.1 | 49.3 | -109 | +2.8% | +5.8% | -1 | ||
 Jonnu Smith GB TE · vs DET | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.18 | -0.82 | +691UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 13.3 | 12.6 | +652 | +0.7% | +5.2% | 0— | ||
 Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB · vs GB | Receptions | 4.5 | 5.01 | +0.51 | -110*DK | +116UD | Under 4.5 | 48.7 | 46.3 | +105 | +2.4% | +5.2% | 0 | ||
Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB · vs GB | Carries | 20.5 | 18.02 | -2.48 | +103UD | -110*DK | Under 20.5 | 54.8 | 52.4 | -121 | +2.4% | +4.6% | +1 | ||
Jared Goff DET QB · vs GB | Rush Yds | 0.5 | 2.95 | +2.45 | -110*DK | +109UD | Under 0.5 | 49.8 | 47.8 | +101 | +1.9% | +4.1% | 0 | ||
 Christian Watson GB WR · vs DET | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.84 | -0.16 | +117UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 47.9 | 46.1 | +109 | +1.8% | +3.9% | 0 | ||
Jordan Love GB QB · vs DET | Pass Yds | 281.5 | 258.56 | -22.94 | -110*DK | u274.5+112UD | Under 274.5 | 48.8 | 47.2 | +105 | +1.6% | +3.5% | +4 | ||
Jordan Love GB QB · vs DET | Completions | 23.5 | 21.26 | -2.24 | +105UD | -110*DK | Under 23.5 | 54.2 | 52.4 | -118 | +1.8% | +3.5% | +1 | ||
Josh Jacobs GB RB · vs DET | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.93 | -0.07 | -102UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 51.9 | 50.5 | -108 | +1.4% | +2.8% | 0 | ||
Matthew Golden GB WR · vs DET | Rec Yds | 74.5 | 60.41 | -14.09 | o69.5-129UD | -110*DK | Under 74.5 | 53.4 | 52.4 | -115 | +1.0% | +1.9% | +2 | ||
Josh Jacobs GB RB · vs DET | Rush Yds | 49.5 | 61.93 | +12.43 | -110*DK | +105UD | Over 49.5 | 53.4 | 52.4 | -115 | +1.0% | +1.9% | +8 | ||
Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB · vs GB | Rec Yds | 40.5 | 43.1 | +2.6 | o39.5-107UD | -110*DK | Over 39.5 | 52.6 | 51.7 | -111 | +0.9% | +1.7% | +2 | ||
 Jameson Williams DET WR · vs GB | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.7 | +0.2 | -110*DK | +102UD | Under 3.5 | 49.9 | 49.5 | +100 | +0.4% | +0.8% | 0— | ||
Savion Williams GB WR · vs DET | Rec Yds | 22.5 | 24.4 | +1.9 | o24.5+122UD | -110*DK | Over 24.5 | 45.3 | 45.0 | +121 | +0.2% | +0.5% | +4 | ||
Sam LaPorta DET TE · vs GB | Rec Yds | 49.5 | 59.26 | +9.76 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Over 49.5 | 52.5 | 52.4 | -111 | +0.1% | +0.2% | -1 | ||
MarShawn Lloyd GB RB · vs DET | Rush Yds | 10.5 | 16.4 | +5.9 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Over 10.5 | 52.5 | 52.4 | -111 | +0.1% | +0.2% | -6 | ||
Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB · vs GB | Anytime TD | 2+ | 1.47 | -0.53 | +161UD | — | 2+ Anytime TD | 38.4 | 38.3 | +160 | +0.1% | +0.2% | 0 | ||
 Tucker Kraft GB TE · vs DET | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.4 | +102UD | -110*DK | Under 4.5 | 52.3 | 52.4 | -110 | -0.1% | -0.1% | +1 | ||
Josh Jacobs GB RB · vs DET | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.4 | +0.9 | -110*DK | -107UD | Over 1.5 | 52.3 | 52.4 | -110 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0— | ||
Jared Goff DET QB · vs GB | Completions | 25.5 | 24.5 | -1 | +106UD | -110*DK | Over 25.5 | 48.3 | 48.5 | +107 | -0.2% | -0.5% | +1 | ||
Christian Watson GB WR · vs DET | Rec Yds | 76.5 | 78.24 | +1.74 | o79.5+109UD | -110*DK | Over 79.5 | 47.5 | 47.8 | +110 | -0.3% | -0.7% | +4 | ||
Jahmyr Gibbs DET RB · vs GB | Rush Yds | 93.5 | 87.97 | -5.53 | -110*DK | u99.5-134UD | Under 99.5 | 56.6 | 57.3 | -131 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -1 | ||
Jordan Love GB QB · vs DET | Carries | 2.5 | 2.35 | -0.15 | +103UD | -110*DK | Under 2.5 | 51.7 | 52.4 | -107 | -0.7% | -1.3% | 0— | ||
 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR · vs GB | Receptions | 7.5 | 7.17 | -0.33 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Under 7.5 | 51.5 | 52.4 | -106 | -0.9% | -1.7% | 0— | ||
Christian Watson GB WR · vs DET | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.3 | -0.2 | -105UD | -110*DK | Under 4.5 | 51.5 | 52.4 | -106 | -0.9% | -1.7% | 0— | ||
Jameson Williams DET WR · vs GB | Rec Yds | 54.5 | 59.87 | +5.37 | -110*DK | u59.5-134UD | Over 54.5 | 51.4 | 52.4 | -106 | -1.0% | -1.9% | +2 | ||
Tucker Kraft GB TE · vs DET | Rec Yds | 49.5 | 49.35 | -0.15 | -110*DK | -104UD | Under 49.5 | 50.0 | 51.0 | -100 | -1.0% | -1.9% | +9 | ||
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR · vs GB | Rec Yds | 80.5 | 77.96 | -2.54 | o79.5-107UD | -110*DK | Over 79.5 | 50.4 | 51.7 | -102 | -1.3% | -2.4% | +2 | ||
Jordan Love GB QB · vs DET | Rush Yds | 7.5 | 6.31 | -1.19 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Under 7.5 | 50.8 | 52.4 | -103 | -1.6% | -3.0% | -1 |
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