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Game 12 of 14
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LAR @ LV
Sun 3:25 PM CT
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Sun 7:20 PM CT
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Mon 7:15 PM CTSun, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds
LAR
Los Angeles Rams · 2-4
Model 26.9 · ESPN 66.2%
@
Proj total 49.3
LV
Las Vegas Raiders · 3-3
Model 22.4 · ESPN 33.5%
72°F · gusts 8 mph · precip 0%· Allegiant Stadium
Markets
Moneyline · Spread · Total
Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line
Moneyline
LAR ML
Fair -173 · Model 63.3%
-192
DKEdge -2.5% · EV -3.7%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
LV ML
Fair +173 · Model 36.7%
+180
BREdge +1.0% · EV +2.8%
Kelly ¼: 0.38% of bankroll ($3.83 of $1000)
Spread
LAR -3.5
Fair -106 · Model 51.5%
-110
DKEdge -0.9% · EV -1.7%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
LV +4
Fair +106 · Model 50.0%
-110
BREdge -2.4% · EV -4.5%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Total
Over 48
Fair -105 · Model 52.6%
-110
MGMEdge +0.3% · EV +0.5%
Kelly ¼: 0.12% of bankroll ($1.15 of $1000)
Under 48.5
Fair +105 · Model 48.9%
-110
DKEdge -3.5% · EV -6.7%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Line shopping · every book
| Book | LAR ML | LV ML | LAR Spread | LV Spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -192 | +160 | -3.5-110 | +3.5-110 | o48.5-110 | u48.5-110 |
| FanDuel | -198 | +166 | -3.5-114 | +3.5-106 | o48.5-104 | u48.5-118 |
| BetMGM | -200 | +160 | -3.5-110 | +3.5-108 | o48-110 | u48-108 |
| Caesars | -197 | +165 | -3.5-115 | +3.5-105 | o48.5-106 | u48.5-114 |
| bet365 | -192 | +161 | -3.5-111 | +3.5-109 | o48.5-107 | u48.5-113 |
| BetRivers | -225 | +180 | -4-110 | +4-110 | o48.5-108 | u48.5-112 |
| Unibet | -200 | +160 | -3.5-114 | +3.5-106 | o48.5-110 | u48.5-114 |
| Consensus | -197 | +160 | -3.5-111 | +3.5-108 | o48.5-104 | u48.5-111 |
| Opening Line | -345 | +275 | -7.5-110 | +7.5-110 | o46.5-110 | u46.5-110 |
Game Props
LAR @ LV · Player Props
44 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kirk Cousins LV QB · vs LAR | Rush Yds | 1.5 | 0.08 | -1.42 | o9.5+362UD | -110*DK | Over 9.5 | 25.9 | 21.6 | +286 | +4.3% | +19.8% | 0 | ||
 Tre Tucker LV WR · vs LAR | First TD | 1st | 7% | +1.5pp | +1530UD | — | First TD | 7.0 | 6.1 | +1321 | +0.9% | +14.7% | — | ||
 Blake Corum LAR RB · vs LV | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.09 | -0.41 | +149UD | -110*DK | Over 1.5 | 45.7 | 40.2 | +119 | +5.5% | +13.8% | +1 | ||
 Colby Parkinson LAR TE · vs LV | First TD | 1st | 9.1% | +1.9pp | +1150UD | — | First TD | 9.1 | 8.0 | +1001 | +1.1% | +13.5% | — | ||
Tre Tucker LV WR · vs LAR | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.42 | -0.58 | +292UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 27.4 | 25.5 | +265 | +1.9% | +7.4% | 0 | ||
 Matthew Stafford LAR QB · vs LV | Completions | 23.5 | 25.53 | +2.03 | +100UD | -110*DK | Over 23.5 | 53.2 | 50.0 | -114 | +3.2% | +6.4% | 0 | ||
 Brock Bowers LV TE · vs LAR | Receptions | 6.5 | 6.17 | -0.33 | +120UD | -110*DK | Over 6.5 | 48.3 | 45.5 | +107 | +2.9% | +6.3% | 0 | ||
Tre Tucker LV WR · vs LAR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.74 | +0.24 | +110UD | -110*DK | Over 3.5 | 50.3 | 47.6 | -101 | +2.7% | +5.6% | 0— | ||
Blake Corum LAR RB · vs LV | Rec Yds | 11.5 | 9.95 | -1.55 | o9.5-112UD | -110*DK | Over 9.5 | 55.5 | 52.8 | -125 | +2.7% | +5.1% | +5 | ||
Kirk Cousins LV QB · vs LAR | Completions | 22.5 | 20.14 | -2.36 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Under 22.5 | 54.6 | 52.4 | -120 | +2.2% | +4.2% | +1 | ||
Kirk Cousins LV QB · vs LAR | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.8 | +0.3 | +102UD | -110*DK | Over 1.5 | 50.8 | 49.5 | -103 | +1.3% | +2.6% | 0— | ||
 Kyren Williams LAR RB · vs LV | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.85 | +0.35 | -110*DK | +108UD | Under 3.5 | 49.2 | 48.1 | +103 | +1.1% | +2.3% | 0— | ||
Tre Tucker LV WR · vs LAR | Rec Yds | 40.5 | 53.48 | +12.98 | -110*DK | u39.5+100UD | Over 40.5 | 53.6 | 52.4 | -116 | +1.2% | +2.3% | +2 | ||
 Ashton Jeanty LV RB · vs LAR | Rec Yds | 25.5 | 33.24 | +7.74 | -110*DK | u24.5+103UD | Over 25.5 | 53.4 | 52.4 | -115 | +1.0% | +1.9% | -2 | ||
 Michael Mayer LV TE · vs LAR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.88 | +0.38 | -110*DK | +107UD | Under 3.5 | 49.1 | 48.3 | +104 | +0.8% | +1.6% | 0— | ||
Matthew Stafford LAR QB · vs LV | Pass Yds | 260.5 | 290.15 | +29.65 | -110*DK | u249.5+118UD | Over 260.5 | 53.2 | 52.4 | -114 | +0.8% | +1.6% | -10 | ||
Matthew Stafford LAR QB · vs LV | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2.18 | +0.68 | -110*DK | +112UD | Under 1.5 | 47.7 | 47.2 | +110 | +0.5% | +1.1% | 0— | ||
Michael Mayer LV TE · vs LAR | Rec Yds | 29.5 | 36.69 | +7.19 | -110*DK | u24.5+147UD | Over 29.5 | 52.9 | 52.4 | -112 | +0.5% | +1.0% | -2 | ||
Ashton Jeanty LV RB · vs LAR | Carries | 14.5 | 16.06 | +1.56 | -110*DK | -106UD | Over 14.5 | 52.9 | 52.4 | -112 | +0.5% | +1.0% | 0 | ||
Brock Bowers LV TE · vs LAR | First TD | 1st | 13.2% | +1.3pp | +659UD | — | First TD | 13.2 | 13.2 | +657 | +0.0% | +0.3% | — | ||
Colby Parkinson LAR TE · vs LV | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.53 | -0.47 | +173UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 36.7 | 36.6 | +172 | +0.1% | +0.2% | 0 | ||
Blake Corum LAR RB · vs LV | Rush Yds | 34.5 | 39.85 | +5.35 | -110*DK | u39.5-143UD | Over 34.5 | 52.3 | 52.4 | -110 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -3 | ||
Blake Corum LAR RB · vs LV | Carries | 7.5 | 8.11 | +0.61 | -110*DK | +104UD | Under 7.5 | 48.7 | 49.0 | +105 | -0.3% | -0.7% | -1 | ||
Kyren Williams LAR RB · vs LV | Rush Yds | 62.5 | 68.76 | +6.26 | -110*DK | u59.5+112UD | Over 62.5 | 51.6 | 52.4 | -107 | -0.8% | -1.5% | -2 | ||
Kirk Cousins LV QB · vs LAR | Pass Yds | 238.5 | 227.04 | -11.46 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Under 238.5 | 51.6 | 52.4 | -107 | -0.8% | -1.5% | +6 | ||
Kyren Williams LAR RB · vs LV | Rec Yds | 25.5 | 28.31 | +2.81 | -110*DK | u24.5+110UD | Over 25.5 | 51.5 | 52.4 | -106 | -0.9% | -1.7% | 0 | ||
Kyren Williams LAR RB · vs LV | Carries | 14.5 | 14.09 | -0.41 | -106UD | -110*DK | Under 14.5 | 51.3 | 52.4 | -105 | -1.1% | -2.1% | 0 | ||
Ashton Jeanty LV RB · vs LAR | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.89 | +0.39 | -110*DK | -105UD | Over 3.5 | 51.0 | 52.4 | -104 | -1.4% | -2.6% | 0— | ||
Brock Bowers LV TE · vs LAR | Rec Yds | 71.5 | 76.08 | +4.58 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Over 71.5 | 50.9 | 52.4 | -104 | -1.5% | -2.8% | +2 | ||
Ashton Jeanty LV RB · vs LAR | Rush Yds | 51.5 | 54.24 | +2.74 | -110*DK | u49.5+108UD | Over 51.5 | 50.9 | 52.4 | -104 | -1.5% | -2.8% | +2 | ||
Brock Bowers LV TE · vs LAR | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.67 | -0.33 | -106UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 48.3 | 51.5 | +107 | -3.2% | -6.1% | 0 | ||
Kyren Williams LAR RB · vs LV | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.81 | -0.19 | -141UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 54.9 | 58.5 | -122 | -3.6% | -6.2% | 0 | ||
Kyren Williams LAR RB · vs LV | First TD | 1st | 19% | 0pp | +373UD | — | First TD | 19.0 | 21.1 | +426 | -2.1% | -10.0% | — | ||
 Puka Nacua LAR WR · vs LV | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.59 | -0.41 | -137UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 50.8 | 57.8 | -103 | -7.0% | -12.1% | 0 | ||
Puka Nacua LAR WR · vs LV | First TD | 1st | 14.7% | -0.4pp | +496UD | — | First TD | 14.7 | 16.8 | +579 | -2.1% | -12.3% | — | ||
Ashton Jeanty LV RB · vs LAR | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.54 | -0.46 | -117UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 47.3 | 53.9 | +111 | -6.6% | -12.3% | 0 | ||
Blake Corum LAR RB · vs LV | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.34 | -0.66 | +143UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 35.1 | 41.2 | +185 | -6.0% | -14.7% | 0 | ||
Ashton Jeanty LV RB · vs LAR | First TD | 1st | 15.2% | -1.4pp | +443UD | — | First TD | 15.2 | 18.4 | +558 | -3.2% | -17.5% | — | ||
Blake Corum LAR RB · vs LV | First TD | 1st | 9.9% | -1pp | +723UD | — | First TD | 9.9 | 12.2 | +907 | -2.2% | -18.3% | — | ||
 Tyler Higbee LAR TE · vs LV | First TD | 1st | 6.7% | -0.8pp | +1110UD | — | First TD | 6.7 | 8.3 | +1403 | -1.6% | -19.5% | — |
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