Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NFL Terminal

Game 5 of 14

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Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

IND

Indianapolis Colts · 2-4

Model 18.3 · ESPN 35.1%

Proj total 43.1

MIN

Minnesota Vikings · 5-0

Model 24.9 · ESPN 64.6%

50°F · gusts 8 mph · precip 47%· U.S. Bank Stadium

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

IND ML

Fair +232 · Model 30.1%

+235

Edge +0.3% · EV +0.8%

Kelly ¼: 0.09% of bankroll ($0.89 of $1000)

MIN ML

Fair -232 · Model 69.9%

-278

Edge -3.6% · EV -5.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Spread

IND +6.5

Fair -100 · Model 50.1%

-110

MGM

Edge -2.3% · EV -4.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

MIN -6.5

Fair +100 · Model 49.9%

-105

Edge -1.3% · EV -2.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 41.5

Fair -109 · Model 52.2%

-108

MGM

Edge +0.3% · EV +0.5%

Kelly ¼: 0.14% of bankroll ($1.44 of $1000)

Under 41.5

Fair +109 · Model 47.8%

-107

CZR

Edge -3.9% · EV -7.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	IND ML	MIN ML	IND Spread	MIN Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	+225	-278	+6.5-112	-6.5-108	o41.5-110	u41.5-110
FanDuel	+235	-290	+6.5-115	-6.5-105	o41.5-110	u41.5-110
BetMGM	+230	-285	+6.5-110	-6.5-108	o41.5-108	u41.5-110
Caesars	+225	-280	+6.5-112	-6.5-108	o41.5-113	u41.5-107
bet365	+235	-290	+6.5-112	-6.5-108	o41.5-110	u41.5-110
BetRivers	+225	-295	+6.5-112	-6.5-109	o41.5-112	u41.5-109
Unibet	+230	-294	+6.5-111	-6.5-110	o41.5-110	u41.5-111
Consensus	+230	-290	+6.5-112	-6.5-108	o41.5-110	u41.5-110
Opening Line	+120	-142	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	o46.5-110	u46.5-110

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Vikings favored, but value sits with Colts moneyline

Minnesota projects as the better team at home, 24.9-18.3, with a fair spread of -6.5 and implied win probability just under 70%. The market is close to that number on the spread, but the only clear pregame edge in the main markets is Indianapolis moneyline at +240, while the total shows only a slight lean over 41.5.

Model score is MIN 24.9, IND 18.3 for a 43.1 total, almost identical to the fair market numbers of MIN -6.5 and 43.0.
Minnesota is 5-0 over its last five, while Indianapolis is 2-3 in its last five games and enters at 2-4 overall.
Main market EV is limited: IND ML +240 shows +2.34% EV, Over 41.5 at -108 shows only +0.53% EV, while both spread sides are negative EV.
Minnesota has notable questionable tags with Christian Darrisaw and T.J. Hockenson, plus multiple players already on injured reserve; Indianapolis lists five questionable players but no major IR cluster here.
Weather should be a minimal factor with the game at U.S. Bank Stadium; listed 50 degrees, 8 mph gusts, and precipitation risk are less relevant indoors.

Props to watch

Daniel Jones Under 0.5 Pass TDs (+178): highest listed prop EV at +33.72% and aligns with a modest Minnesota team total projection of 24.9.
Josh Downs Under 3.5 Receptions (+133): +14.64% EV and fits an Indianapolis projection of just 18.3 points.
Justin Jefferson Under 5.5 Receptions (+104): +8.12% EV in a game the model projects near market total rather than as a clear shootout.

Lean: IND ML +240

Injury Report

IND

Anthony Gould WRQuestionable · Concussion
Ashton Dulin WRQuestionable · Hamstring
Tyler Warren TEQuestionable · Groin
CJ Allen LBQuestionable · Ankle
Justin Walley CBQuestionable · Knee

MIN

Christian Darrisaw OTQuestionable · Concussion
T.J. Hockenson TEQuestionable · Concussion
Jordan Mason RBInjured Reserve · Thumb
Donovan Jackson GInjured Reserve · Knee - Meniscus
Josh Oliver TEInjured Reserve · Biceps

Recent Form · Series

IND

LWWLL

MIN

WWWWW

Game Props

IND @ MIN · Player Props

50 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Daniel Jones IND QB · vs MIN	Pass TDs	0.5	0.98	+0.48	-110*DK	+178UD	Under 0.5	48.1	36.0	+108	+12.1%	+33.7%	0—
Jauan Jennings MIN WR · vs IND	Anytime TD	1+	0.6	-0.4	+509UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	19.9	16.4	+403	+3.5%	+21.2%	0
Josh Downs IND WR · vs MIN	Receptions	3.5	3.85	+0.35	-110*DK	+133UD	Under 3.5	49.2	42.9	+103	+6.3%	+14.6%	0
Daniel Jones IND QB · vs MIN	Anytime TD	1+	0.25	-0.75	+541UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	17.3	15.6	+478	+1.7%	+10.9%	0
Keenan Allen IND WR · vs MIN	Receptions	4.5	5.01	+0.51	-110*DK	+124UD	Under 4.5	48.7	44.6	+105	+4.1%	+9.1%	-1
Justin Jefferson MIN WR · vs IND	Receptions	5.5	4.85	-0.65	-110*DK	+104UD	Under 5.5	53.0	49.0	-113	+4.0%	+8.1%	0—
Kyler Murray MIN QB · vs IND	Completions	20.5	19.62	-0.88	-110*DK	+107UD	Under 20.5	51.9	48.3	-108	+3.6%	+7.4%	0—
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN RB · vs IND	Carries	10.5	15.67	+5.17	-110*DK	+104UD	Over 10.5	56.1	52.4	-128	+3.7%	+7.1%	0—
Jauan Jennings MIN WR · vs IND	First TD	1st	8.6%	+2.2pp	+1140UD	—	First TD	8.6	8.1	+1068	+0.5%	+6.2%	—
Daniel Jones IND QB · vs MIN	Completions	19.5	21.03	+1.53	+100UD	-110*DK	Over 19.5	53.0	50.0	-113	+3.0%	+6.0%	0—
Kyler Murray MIN QB · vs IND	Pass Yds	204.5	178.95	-25.55	-110*DK	u199.5+108UD	Under 199.5	50.6	48.1	-102	+2.5%	+5.3%	0
Jonathan Taylor IND RB · vs MIN	Anytime TD	1+	1.17	+0.17	-108UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	54.5	51.9	-120	+2.6%	+5.0%	0
Jonathan Taylor IND RB · vs MIN	Receptions	2.5	2.58	+0.08	+112UD	-110*DK	Over 2.5	49.5	47.2	+102	+2.3%	+4.9%	0—
Kyler Murray MIN QB · vs IND	Pass TDs	1.5	0.85	-0.65	+106UD	-110*DK	Under 1.5	54.9	52.4	-122	+2.5%	+4.8%	0—
Jordan Mason MIN RB · vs IND	Carries	11.5	10.95	-0.55	-110*DK	+101UD	Under 11.5	51.8	49.8	-107	+2.0%	+4.1%	0—
Daniel Jones IND QB · vs MIN	Pass Yds	194.5	224.42	+29.92	o199.5+104UD	-110*DK	Over 199.5	51.0	49.0	-104	+2.0%	+4.1%	-4
Kyler Murray MIN QB · vs IND	Rush Yds	25.5	28.93	+3.43	o24.5-112UD	-110*DK	Over 24.5	54.8	52.8	-121	+1.9%	+3.6%	0—
Jordan Addison MIN WR · vs IND	Receptions	3.5	2.88	-0.62	+120UD	-110*DK	Under 3.5	53.7	52.4	-116	+1.3%	+2.5%	0—
Justin Jefferson MIN WR · vs IND	Rec Yds	71.5	63.07	-8.43	-110*DK	u69.5+106UD	Under 69.5	49.8	48.5	+101	+1.2%	+2.5%	-3
T.J. Hockenson MIN TE · vs IND	Receptions	4.5	4.07	-0.43	+114UD	-110*DK	Over 4.5	47.6	46.7	+110	+0.9%	+1.9%	0—
Jonathan Taylor IND RB · vs MIN	Rec Yds	16.5	25.19	+8.69	-110*DK	u14.5+117UD	Over 16.5	53.3	52.4	-114	+0.9%	+1.8%	0
Daniel Jones IND QB · vs MIN	Rush Yds	6.5	10.55	+4.05	o9.5+143UD	-110*DK	Over 9.5	41.9	41.2	+139	+0.7%	+1.8%	0—
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN RB · vs IND	Rush Yds	39.5	65.85	+26.35	-110*DK	-102UD	Over 39.5	53.3	52.4	-114	+0.9%	+1.8%	-1
Jonathan Taylor IND RB · vs MIN	Rush Yds	72.5	86.49	+13.99	-110*DK	u69.5+103UD	Over 72.5	52.8	52.4	-112	+0.4%	+0.8%	+3
Jonathan Taylor IND RB · vs MIN	Carries	18.5	19.8	+1.3	-107UD	-110*DK	Over 18.5	52.1	51.7	-109	+0.4%	+0.8%	0—
Jordan Mason MIN RB · vs IND	Rush Yds	47.5	49.7	+2.2	-110*DK	u49.5-112UD	Under 49.5	52.5	52.8	-111	-0.3%	-0.6%	+1
Keenan Allen IND WR · vs MIN	Rec Yds	40.5	45.54	+5.04	-110*DK	u39.5+101UD	Over 40.5	51.7	52.4	-107	-0.7%	-1.3%	0
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN RB · vs IND	Receptions	2.5	2.37	-0.13	-110*DK	-110*DK	Under 2.5	51.6	52.4	-107	-0.8%	-1.5%	0—
Jonathan Taylor IND RB · vs MIN	First TD	1st	20%	+4pp	+391UD	—	First TD	20.0	20.4	+400	-0.3%	-1.7%	—
T.J. Hockenson MIN TE · vs IND	Rec Yds	37.5	35.42	-2.08	o39.5+110UD	-110*DK	Under 37.5	50.9	52.4	-104	-1.5%	-2.8%	-1
Jordan Addison MIN WR · vs IND	Rec Yds	43.5	42.16	-1.34	o39.5-139UD	-110*DK	Over 39.5	56.4	58.2	-129	-1.8%	-3.1%	0
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN RB · vs IND	Rec Yds	14.5	15.37	+0.87	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 14.5	50.6	52.4	-102	-1.8%	-3.4%	0
Josh Downs IND WR · vs MIN	Rec Yds	42.5	43.05	+0.55	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 42.5	50.2	52.4	-101	-2.2%	-4.2%	0—
Justin Jefferson MIN WR · vs IND	Anytime TD	1+	0.43	-0.57	+136UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	38.1	42.4	+162	-4.3%	-10.1%	0
Jordan Addison MIN WR · vs IND	Anytime TD	1+	0.27	-0.73	+235UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	26.4	29.9	+279	-3.5%	-11.6%	0—
Will Mallory IND TE · vs MIN	Anytime TD	1+	0.12	-0.88	+572UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	13.0	14.9	+669	-1.9%	-12.6%	0—
Aaron Jones Sr. MIN RB · vs IND	Anytime TD	1+	0.33	-0.67	+126UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	36.8	44.2	+172	-7.5%	-16.8%	0
Jordan Mason MIN RB · vs IND	Anytime TD	3+	0.5	-2.5	+4420UD	—	3+ Anytime TD	1.8	2.2	+5456	-0.4%	-18.6%	0—
T.J. Hockenson MIN TE · vs IND	Anytime TD	1+	0.2	-0.8	+190UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	27.3	34.5	+266	-7.2%	-20.8%	0
Laquon Treadwell IND WR · vs MIN	First TD	1st	3.8%	0pp	+1980UD	—	First TD	3.8	4.8	+2544	-1.0%	-21.3%	—

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