Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

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Game 14 of 14

PrevKC @ SEA

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Mon, Oct 26 · 7:15 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

DAL

Dallas Cowboys · 2-4

Model 23.4 · ESPN 69%

Proj total 48.2

PHI

Philadelphia Eagles · 2-4

Model 24.8 · ESPN 30.8%

61°F · gusts 12 mph · precip 0%· Lincoln Financial Field

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

DAL ML

Fair -137 · Model 57.7%

-198

Edge -8.7% · EV -13.2%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

PHI ML

Fair +137 · Model 42.3%

+180

Edge +6.6% · EV +18.4%

Kelly ¼: 2.56% of bankroll ($25.61 of $1000)

Spread

DAL -4

Fair +135 · Model 44.0%

-108

MGM

Edge -7.9% · EV -15.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

PHI +4.5

Fair -135 · Model 57.4%

-108

Edge +5.5% · EV +10.6%

Kelly ¼: 2.85% of bankroll ($28.48 of $1000)

Total

Over 44

Fair -122 · Model 56.5%

-110

CZR

Edge +4.1% · EV +7.8%

Kelly ¼: 2.16% of bankroll ($21.62 of $1000)

Under 44.5

Fair +122 · Model 45.0%

-110

Edge -7.4% · EV -14.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	DAL ML	PHI ML	DAL Spread	PHI Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	-218	+180	-4.5-112	+4.5-108	o44.5-110	u44.5-110
FanDuel	-198	+166	-4.5-104	+4.5-118	o44.5-110	u44.5-110
BetMGM	-210	+170	-4-108	+4-110	o44-112	u44-105
Caesars	-209	+174	-4-109	+4-109	o44-110	u44-110
bet365	-210	+175	-4.5-108	+4.5-112	o44.5-110	u44.5-110
BetRivers	-215	+180	-4.5-113	+4.5-108	o44.5-109	u44.5-112
Unibet	-208	+170	-4.5-105	+4.5-114	o44.5-106	u44.5-114
Consensus	-210	+172	-4.5-110	+4.5-109	o44.5-110	u44.5-110
Opening Line	+136	-162	+3-110	-3-110	o48.5-110	u48.5-110

Game Props

DAL @ PHI · Player Props

50 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Tanner McKee PHI QB · vs DAL	Pass TDs	1.5	1.4	-0.1	+141UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	48.1	41.5	+108	+6.6%	+15.9%	0—
Saquon Barkley PHI RB · vs DAL	Carries	16.5	13.25	-3.25	-110*DK	-104UD	Under 16.5	56.7	51.0	-131	+5.7%	+11.2%	0—
Dameon Pierce PHI RB · vs DAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.3	-0.7	+433UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	20.3	18.8	+393	+1.5%	+8.2%	0
Javonte Williams DAL RB · vs PHI	Receptions	2.5	2.77	+0.27	+110UD	-110*DK	Over 2.5	50.5	47.6	-102	+2.9%	+6.0%	0—
Dak Prescott DAL QB · vs PHI	Pass Yds	262.5	271.01	+8.51	o274.5+138UD	-110*DK	Over 274.5	44.2	42.0	+126	+2.2%	+5.2%	-3
Jake Ferguson DAL TE · vs PHI	Anytime TD	1+	0.49	-0.51	+227UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	32.1	30.6	+212	+1.5%	+5.0%	0
Dak Prescott DAL QB · vs PHI	Pass TDs	1.5	1.71	+0.21	-110*DK	+110UD	Under 1.5	49.8	47.6	+101	+2.2%	+4.6%	0—
Dallas Goedert PHI TE · vs DAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.62	-0.38	+169UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	38.7	37.2	+158	+1.5%	+4.1%	0
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR · vs PHI	Receptions	7.5	6.94	-0.56	+118UD	-110*DK	Over 7.5	47.7	45.9	+110	+1.8%	+4.0%	0
Tanner McKee PHI QB · vs DAL	Pass Yds	210.5	211.4	+0.9	-110*DK	u224.5-137UD	Under 224.5	60.0	57.8	-150	+2.2%	+3.8%	-3
Javonte Williams DAL RB · vs PHI	Carries	16.5	14.8	-1.7	-110*DK	-108UD	Under 16.5	53.8	51.9	-116	+1.9%	+3.6%	0—
Jake Ferguson DAL TE · vs PHI	Rec Yds	17.5	25.62	+8.12	-110*DK	u24.5-170UD	Under 24.5	65.1	63.0	-187	+2.1%	+3.4%	-1
Tanner McKee PHI QB · vs DAL	Rush Yds	6.5	5.2	-1.3	-110*DK	u4.5+133UD	Under 4.5	44.3	42.9	+126	+1.3%	+3.1%	-1
George Pickens DAL WR · vs PHI	Receptions	4.5	5.49	+0.99	-110*DK	+119UD	Under 4.5	47.0	45.7	+113	+1.3%	+2.9%	0—
DeVonta Smith PHI WR · vs DAL	Receptions	6.5	5.51	-0.99	+120UD	-110*DK	Under 6.5	53.9	52.4	-117	+1.5%	+2.9%	0—
Dak Prescott DAL QB · vs PHI	Completions	23.5	25.81	+2.31	-110*DK	-108UD	Over 23.5	53.6	52.4	-116	+1.2%	+2.3%	0
Jake Ferguson DAL TE · vs PHI	Receptions	2.5	3.63	+1.13	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 2.5	53.3	52.4	-114	+0.9%	+1.8%	0—
Tanner McKee PHI QB · vs DAL	Completions	20.5	21.6	+1.1	-106UD	-110*DK	Over 20.5	52.1	51.5	-109	+0.6%	+1.3%	0—
Dallas Goedert PHI TE · vs DAL	Receptions	4.5	4.12	-0.38	-110*DK	-107UD	Under 4.5	52.2	51.7	-109	+0.5%	+1.0%	0—
Dallas Goedert PHI TE · vs DAL	First TD	1st	10%	+2.1pp	+910UD	—	First TD	10.0	9.9	+904	+0.1%	+0.6%	—
George Pickens DAL WR · vs PHI	Rec Yds	65.5	76.42	+10.92	o69.5+107UD	-110*DK	Over 69.5	48.5	48.3	+106	+0.2%	+0.4%	+3
Javonte Williams DAL RB · vs PHI	Anytime TD	1+	1.12	+0.12	-150UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	60.1	60.0	-151	+0.1%	+0.2%	0
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR · vs PHI	Rec Yds	83.5	88.47	+4.97	o79.5-118UD	-110*DK	Over 79.5	54.1	54.1	-118	+0.0%	+0.0%	+1
Dallas Goedert PHI TE · vs DAL	Rec Yds	40.5	42.2	+1.7	o39.5-112UD	-110*DK	Over 39.5	52.3	52.8	-110	-0.5%	-1.0%	-2
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR · vs PHI	Receptions	3.5	3.3	-0.2	+104UD	-110*DK	Under 3.5	51.7	52.4	-107	-0.7%	-1.3%	0—
Dak Prescott DAL QB · vs PHI	Rush Yds	9.5	11.46	+1.96	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 9.5	51.4	52.4	-106	-1.0%	-1.9%	0—
Javonte Williams DAL RB · vs PHI	Rush Yds	65.5	61.73	-3.77	-110*DK	-110*DK	Under 65.5	51.1	52.4	-104	-1.3%	-2.5%	-1
Javonte Williams DAL RB · vs PHI	Rec Yds	12.5	13.72	+1.22	-110*DK	u14.5-137UD	Over 12.5	50.9	52.4	-104	-1.5%	-2.8%	0—
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR · vs PHI	Rec Yds	33.5	35.27	+1.77	-110*DK	u39.5-173UD	Under 39.5	61.5	63.4	-160	-1.9%	-3.0%	+1
DeVonta Smith PHI WR · vs DAL	Rec Yds	67.5	68.4	+0.9	-110*DK	u69.5-117UD	Under 69.5	51.9	53.9	-108	-2.0%	-3.7%	-5
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR · vs PHI	Anytime TD	1+	0.49	-0.51	+121UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	41.0	45.2	+144	-4.3%	-9.4%	0
Jake Ferguson DAL TE · vs PHI	First TD	1st	8.9%	+1.1pp	+910UD	—	First TD	8.9	9.9	+1018	-1.0%	-9.7%	—
DeVonta Smith PHI WR · vs DAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.37	-0.63	+169UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	33.4	37.2	+199	-3.8%	-10.2%	0
Javonte Williams DAL RB · vs PHI	First TD	1st	21.5%	+2pp	+306UD	—	First TD	21.5	24.6	+364	-3.1%	-12.5%	—
Tanner McKee PHI QB · vs DAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.15	-0.85	+443UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	16.1	18.4	+521	-2.3%	-12.6%	0—
Ryan Flournoy DAL WR · vs PHI	Anytime TD	1+	0.2	-0.8	+291UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	21.9	25.6	+357	-3.7%	-14.4%	0
George Pickens DAL WR · vs PHI	Anytime TD	1+	0.31	-0.69	+143UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	34.4	41.2	+191	-6.8%	-16.4%	0—
DeVonta Smith PHI WR · vs DAL	First TD	1st	7.7%	+0.3pp	+970UD	—	First TD	7.7	9.3	+1197	-1.6%	-17.5%	—
Dontayvion Wicks PHI WR · vs DAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.16	-0.84	+329UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	19.2	23.3	+421	-4.1%	-17.6%	0
Saquon Barkley PHI RB · vs DAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.28	-0.72	+108UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	38.9	48.1	+157	-9.2%	-19.1%	0

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