Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NFL Terminal

Game 9 of 14

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Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

NYG

New York Giants · 3-2-1

Model 20.6 · ESPN 15%

Proj total 46.1

HOU

Houston Texans · 2-4

Model 25.5 · ESPN 84.8%

77°F · gusts 15 mph · precip 0%· Reliant Stadium

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

NYG ML

Fair +276 · Model 26.6%

+410

Edge +7.0% · EV +35.7%

Kelly ¼: 2.17% of bankroll ($21.74 of $1000)

HOU ML

Fair -276 · Model 73.4%

-480

CZR

Edge -9.4% · EV -11.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Spread

NYG +10.5

Fair -135 · Model 57.5%

-110

MGM

Edge +5.1% · EV +9.8%

Kelly ¼: 2.69% of bankroll ($26.87 of $1000)

HOU -10.5

Fair +135 · Model 42.5%

-105

Edge -8.7% · EV -17.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 42.5

Fair -123 · Model 55.1%

-110

MGM

Edge +2.7% · EV +5.2%

Kelly ¼: 1.43% of bankroll ($14.28 of $1000)

Under 43.5

Fair +123 · Model 47.9%

-120

Edge -6.7% · EV -12.2%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	NYG ML	HOU ML	NYG Spread	HOU Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	+390	-520	+10.5-112	-10.5-108	o42.5-112	u42.5-108
FanDuel	+410	-550	+10.5-115	-10.5-105	o43.5-102	u43.5-120
BetMGM	+400	-500	+10.5-110	-10.5-108	o42.5-110	u42.5-108
Caesars	+360	-480	+10.5-114	-10.5-105	o42.5-115	u42.5-106
bet365	+390	-525	+10.5-113	-10.5-107	o42.5-111	u42.5-109
BetRivers	+390	-530	+10.5-115	-10.5-106	o42.5-112	u42.5-108
Unibet	+380	-526	+10.5-114	-10.5-106	o42.5-118	u42.5-105
Consensus	+392	-525	+10.5-112	-10.5-107	o42.5-111	u42.5-108
Opening Line	+195	-238	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	o43.5-110	u43.5-110

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Giants plus points stands out

The model makes Houston the likelier winner, but by a much smaller margin than the market spread. With a projected 25.5-20.6 score and fair spread of Texans -5.0, New York +10.5 offers the clearest value, while the total leans slightly over a modest number.

Model projection is HOU by 5.0 with a 46.1 total, versus market Texans -10.5 and total 42.5/43.5.
Best listed side is NYG +10.5 (-110) with 57.5% model cover probability and +9.77% EV.
Moneyline is more aggressive: model gives NYG 26.6% win probability, creating +35.66% EV at +410, though Houston is still the more likely winner.
Over 42.5 (-110) has a small edge with 55.1% model probability and +5.19% EV relative to the 46.1 projected total.
Injuries cluster around pass-game and line pieces for both teams; NYG has two notable questionable linemen (Andrew Thomas, Jermaine Eluemunor), while Houston has Dalton Schultz questionable and David Montgomery doubtful.

Props to watch

Xavier Hutchinson Over 1.5 Receptions (+160): top prop EV on the board at +35.98% with a 52.3% model hit rate.
Kayshon Boutte Over 1.5 Receptions (+153): another plus-money reception prop with the same 52.3% model probability and +32.32% EV.
C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 Pass TDs (+141): aligns with Houston still being favored without needing a huge passing TD output; model probability 51.6%, EV +24.36%.

Lean: NYG +10.5

Injury Report

NYG

Jermaine Eluemunor OTQuestionable · Calf
Andrew Thomas OTQuestionable · Groin
Colton Hood CBQuestionable · Concussion
Jevon Holland SQuestionable · Concussion
Theo Johnson TEQuestionable · Neck

HOU

Reed Blankenship SQuestionable · Concussion
Brevin Jordan TEQuestionable · Foot
Azeez Al-Shaair LBQuestionable · Knee
Dalton Schultz TEQuestionable · Quadriceps
David Montgomery RBDoubtful · Groin

Recent Form · Series

NYG

LWWTL

HOU

LLLWW

Game Props

NYG @ HOU · Player Props

66 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Xavier Hutchinson HOU WR · vs NYG	Receptions	1.5	2.62	+1.12	+160UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	52.3	38.5	-110	+13.8%	+36.0%	0—
Kayshon Boutte HOU WR · vs NYG	Receptions	1.5	2.34	+0.84	+153UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	52.3	39.5	-110	+12.8%	+32.3%	0—
J.J. McCarthy NYG QB · vs HOU	Pass TDs	0.5	1.1	+0.6	-110*DK	+164UD	Under 0.5	48.0	37.9	+108	+10.1%	+26.7%	0—
C.J. Stroud HOU QB · vs NYG	Pass TDs	1.5	1.44	-0.06	-110*DK	+141UD	Under 1.5	51.6	41.5	-107	+10.1%	+24.4%	0—
J.J. McCarthy NYG QB · vs HOU	Anytime TD	1+	0.4	-0.6	+477UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	21.1	17.3	+374	+3.8%	+21.8%	0—
Theo Johnson NYG TE · vs HOU	Anytime TD	2+	0.33	-1.67	+6640UD	—	2+ Anytime TD	1.8	1.5	+5456	+0.3%	+21.3%	0—
J.J. McCarthy NYG QB · vs HOU	Completions	18.5	14	-4.5	-110*DK	+105UD	Under 18.5	58.0	48.8	-138	+9.2%	+18.9%	0—
Devin Singletary NYG RB · vs HOU	Anytime TD	1+	0.29	-0.71	+509UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	18.9	16.4	+429	+2.5%	+15.1%	0—
Woody Marks HOU RB · vs NYG	Rush Yds	61.5	38.08	-23.42	-110*DK	u59.5+103UD	Under 59.5	55.6	49.3	-125	+6.4%	+13.0%	+5
Dalton Schultz HOU TE · vs NYG	Receptions	3.5	4.73	+1.23	+106UD	-110*DK	Over 3.5	54.1	48.5	-118	+5.6%	+11.4%	0—
Woody Marks HOU RB · vs NYG	Carries	16.5	10.7	-5.8	+103UD	-110*DK	Under 16.5	58.0	52.4	-138	+5.6%	+10.7%	+2
J.J. McCarthy NYG QB · vs HOU	Pass Yds	201.5	163.2	-38.3	-110*DK	u199.5+100UD	Under 199.5	55.3	50.0	-124	+5.3%	+10.6%	-3
Isaiah Likely NYG TE · vs HOU	Anytime TD	1+	0.53	-0.47	+243UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	32.1	29.2	+212	+3.0%	+10.1%	0
Malachi Fields NYG WR · vs HOU	Receptions	1.5	1.8	+0.3	-110*DK	+123UD	Under 1.5	49.2	44.8	+103	+4.4%	+9.7%	-1
J.J. McCarthy NYG QB · vs HOU	Carries	5.5	3.7	-1.8	-103UD	-110*DK	Under 5.5	56.9	52.4	-132	+4.5%	+8.6%	0—
Cam Skattebo NYG RB · vs HOU	Anytime TD	1+	0.45	-0.55	+270UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	29.1	27.0	+244	+2.1%	+7.7%	0
J.J. McCarthy NYG QB · vs HOU	Rush Yds	23.5	18.1	-5.4	-110*DK	u24.5-112UD	Under 24.5	56.5	52.8	-130	+3.7%	+7.0%	-2
Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG RB · vs HOU	Receptions	1.5	2.4	+0.9	+104UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	52.3	49.0	-110	+3.3%	+6.7%	0—
J.J. McCarthy NYG QB · vs HOU	First TD	1st	5.9%	+1.5pp	+1680UD	—	First TD	5.9	5.6	+1588	+0.3%	+5.5%	—
Isaiah Likely NYG TE · vs HOU	First TD	1st	6.2%	+1.6pp	+1610UD	—	First TD	6.2	5.8	+1521	+0.3%	+5.5%	—
Jaylin Noel HOU WR · vs NYG	Receptions	2.5	2.7	+0.2	+110UD	-110*DK	Over 2.5	50.1	47.6	-100	+2.5%	+5.2%	0
Devin Singletary NYG RB · vs HOU	Receptions	1.5	1.06	-0.44	+120UD	-110*DK	Under 1.5	54.5	52.4	-120	+2.1%	+4.0%	0—
Jaylin Noel HOU WR · vs NYG	Rec Yds	28.5	44.8	+16.3	o24.5-130UD	-110*DK	Over 24.5	58.1	56.5	-139	+1.6%	+2.8%	+5
Isaiah Likely NYG TE · vs HOU	Receptions	5.5	4.67	-0.83	+106UD	-110*DK	Under 5.5	53.6	52.4	-116	+1.2%	+2.3%	0—
Dalton Schultz HOU TE · vs NYG	Rec Yds	31.5	45.98	+14.48	-110*DK	u24.5+149UD	Over 31.5	53.5	52.4	-115	+1.1%	+2.1%	0
Cam Skattebo NYG RB · vs HOU	Rush Yds	31.5	49.9	+18.4	-110*DK	u29.5+108UD	Over 31.5	53.5	52.4	-115	+1.1%	+2.1%	0—
Marvin Harrison Jr. HOU WR · vs NYG	Receptions	2.5	3.42	+0.92	-110*DK	-108UD	Over 2.5	53.3	52.4	-114	+0.9%	+1.8%	0—
Malik Nabers NYG WR · vs HOU	Rec Yds	71.5	76.5	+5	o69.5-109UD	-110*DK	Over 69.5	52.9	52.2	-112	+0.7%	+1.4%	+4
Marvin Harrison Jr. HOU WR · vs NYG	Rec Yds	30.5	50.67	+20.17	-110*DK	u24.5+127UD	Over 30.5	52.9	52.4	-112	+0.5%	+1.0%	+1
Nico Collins HOU WR · vs NYG	Receptions	4.5	5.12	+0.62	-110*DK	+108UD	Under 4.5	48.3	48.1	+107	+0.2%	+0.5%	0—
C.J. Stroud HOU QB · vs NYG	Completions	21.5	22.1	+0.6	-110*DK	+105UD	Under 21.5	48.9	48.8	+104	+0.1%	+0.2%	0
Malachi Fields NYG WR · vs HOU	Rec Yds	20.5	24.7	+4.2	-110*DK	u24.5-150UD	Over 20.5	52.5	52.4	-111	+0.1%	+0.2%	-2
Xavier Hutchinson HOU WR · vs NYG	Rec Yds	12.5	34.17	+21.67	o14.5+103UD	-110*DK	Over 14.5	49.3	49.3	+103	+0.0%	+0.0%	+3
Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG RB · vs HOU	Rush Yds	23.5	49.33	+25.83	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 23.5	52.4	52.4	-110	+0.0%	+0.0%	0—
Nico Collins HOU WR · vs NYG	Rec Yds	65.5	77.61	+12.11	-110*DK	u69.5-113UD	Over 65.5	52.3	52.4	-110	-0.1%	-0.1%	-3
C.J. Stroud HOU QB · vs NYG	Rush Yds	9.5	13.57	+4.07	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 9.5	52.3	52.4	-110	-0.1%	-0.1%	0—
Isaiah Likely NYG TE · vs HOU	Rec Yds	50.5	47.07	-3.43	o49.5-103UD	-110*DK	Over 49.5	50.4	50.7	-102	-0.3%	-0.6%	+2
Devin Singletary NYG RB · vs HOU	Rec Yds	7.5	8.88	+1.38	o4.5-157UD	-110*DK	Over 4.5	60.7	61.1	-154	-0.4%	-0.7%	0—
Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG RB · vs HOU	Rec Yds	8.5	19.2	+10.7	-110*DK	u9.5-112UD	Over 8.5	51.8	52.4	-107	-0.6%	-1.1%	-1
Devin Singletary NYG RB · vs HOU	First TD	1st	4.9%	+1pp	+1930UD	—	First TD	4.9	4.9	+1961	-0.1%	-1.5%	—

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