NFL Terminal
Game 2 of 14
NE @ CHI
FINAL
PIT @ NO
Sun 8:30 AM CT
SF @ ATL
Sun 12:00 PM CT
CLE @ TEN
Sun 12:00 PM CT
IND @ MIN
Sun 12:00 PM CT
MIA @ NYJ
Sun 12:00 PM CT
TB @ CAR
Sun 12:00 PM CT
CIN @ BAL
Sun 12:00 PM CT
NYG @ HOU
Sun 12:00 PM CT
DEN @ ARI
Sun 3:05 PM CT
GB @ DET
Sun 3:25 PM CT
LAR @ LV
Sun 3:25 PM CT
KC @ SEA
Sun 7:20 PM CT
DAL @ PHI
Mon 7:15 PM CTSun, Oct 25 · 8:30 AM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers · 4-2
Model 26.2 · ESPN 59.9%
@
Proj total 48
NO
New Orleans Saints · 2-4
Model 21.8 · ESPN 39.8%
No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Stade de France
Markets
Moneyline · Spread · Total
Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line
Moneyline
PIT ML
Fair -163 · Model 62.0%
-174
FDEdge -1.5% · EV -2.4%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
NO ML
Fair +163 · Model 38.0%
+154
CZREdge -1.4% · EV -3.5%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Spread
PIT -3.5
Fair -113 · Model 51.5%
+102
365Edge +2.0% · EV +4.0%
Kelly ¼: 0.99% of bankroll ($9.88 of $1000)
NO +3
Fair +113 · Model 47.0%
+100
MGMEdge -3.0% · EV -6.0%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Total
Over 44
Fair -121 · Model 56.3%
-114
BREdge +3.0% · EV +5.6%
Kelly ¼: 1.62% of bankroll ($16.20 of $1000)
Under 44.5
Fair +121 · Model 45.2%
-107
365Edge -6.5% · EV -12.6%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Line shopping · every book
| Book | PIT ML | NO ML | PIT Spread | NO Spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -175 | +145 | -3-118 | +3-102 | o44.5-110 | u44.5-110 |
| FanDuel | -174 | +146 | -3-118 | +3-104 | o44.5-112 | u44.5-108 |
| BetMGM | -175 | +145 | -3-118 | +3+100 | o44.5-110 | u44.5-108 |
| Caesars | -182 | +154 | -3-120 | +3-102 | o44.5-113 | u44.5-107 |
| bet365 | -178 | +149 | -3.5+102 | +3.5-122 | o44.5-113 | u44.5-107 |
| BetRivers | -177 | +148 | -3.5-105 | +3.5-117 | o44-114 | u44-107 |
| Unibet | -182 | +150 | -3.5-105 | +3.5-114 | o44.5-114 | u44.5-110 |
| Consensus | -176 | +145 | -3.5-107 | +3.5-112 | o44.5-111 | u44.5-108 |
| Opening Line | -130 | +110 | -1.5-110 | +1.5-110 | o41.5-115 | u41.5-105 |
Game Props
PIT @ NO · Player Props
65 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tyler Shough NO QB · vs PIT | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1.56 | +0.06 | +145UD | -110*DK | Over 1.5 | 49.2 | 40.8 | +103 | +8.4% | +20.5% | 0— | ||
 Kendre Miller NO RB · vs PIT | Carries | 12.5 | 8.43 | -4.07 | -110*DK | +100UD | Under 12.5 | 58.0 | 50.0 | -138 | +8.0% | +16.0% | 0 | ||
 Germie Bernard PIT WR · vs NO | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.2 | -0.3 | -110*DK | +123UD | Under 4.5 | 51.9 | 44.8 | -108 | +7.1% | +15.7% | 0 | ||
 Devaughn Vele NO WR · vs PIT | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.57 | +0.07 | -110*DK | u4.5-154UD | Under 4.5 | 69.6 | 60.6 | -228 | +8.9% | +14.7% | -1 | ||
Tyler Shough NO QB · vs PIT | Carries | 3.5 | 3.74 | +0.24 | +126UD | -110*DK | Over 3.5 | 50.3 | 44.2 | -101 | +6.0% | +13.7% | +1 | ||
 Jaylen Warren PIT RB · vs NO | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.1 | -0.4 | +139UD | -110*DK | Over 3.5 | 47.4 | 41.8 | +111 | +5.6% | +13.3% | 0— | ||
Tyler Shough NO QB · vs PIT | Rush Yds | 15.5 | 17.16 | +1.66 | o14.5+104UD | -110*DK | Over 14.5 | 54.5 | 49.0 | -120 | +5.5% | +11.1% | +2 | ||
 Pat Freiermuth PIT TE · vs NO | Rec Yds | 33.5 | 29.44 | -4.06 | o24.5-176UD | -110*DK | Over 24.5 | 69.8 | 63.8 | -231 | +6.0% | +9.4% | +6 | ||
 Rico Dowdle PIT RB · vs NO | Carries | 7.5 | 11.08 | +3.58 | -110*DK | +115UD | Over 7.5 | 55.6 | 52.4 | -125 | +3.2% | +6.2% | -1 | ||
Kendre Miller NO RB · vs PIT | Rush Yds | 38.5 | 29.25 | -9.25 | o39.5+116UD | -110*DK | Under 38.5 | 55.1 | 52.4 | -123 | +2.7% | +5.2% | -6 | ||
 DK Metcalf PIT WR · vs NO | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.57 | +0.07 | -110*DK | +108UD | Under 4.5 | 50.4 | 48.1 | -102 | +2.3% | +4.8% | 0 | ||
Pat Freiermuth PIT TE · vs NO | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.06 | -0.44 | +120UD | -110*DK | Over 3.5 | 47.2 | 45.5 | +112 | +1.8% | +3.8% | +1 | ||
 Alvin Kamara NO RB · vs PIT | Rush Yds | 16.5 | 32.36 | +15.86 | o19.5+118UD | -110*DK | Over 19.5 | 47.6 | 45.9 | +110 | +1.7% | +3.7% | +1 | ||
Alvin Kamara NO RB · vs PIT | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.37 | -0.63 | +291UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 26.5 | 25.6 | +277 | +0.9% | +3.6% | 0 | ||
Alvin Kamara NO RB · vs PIT | First TD | 1st | 6.4% | +1.5pp | +1510UD | — | First TD | 6.4 | 6.2 | +1454 | +0.2% | +3.6% | — | ||
Tyler Shough NO QB · vs PIT | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.31 | -0.69 | +358UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 22.6 | 21.8 | +342 | +0.8% | +3.5% | 0— | ||
Pat Freiermuth PIT TE · vs NO | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.49 | -0.51 | +211UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 33.2 | 32.2 | +201 | +1.1% | +3.3% | 0 | ||
Jaylen Warren PIT RB · vs NO | Rec Yds | 25.5 | 34.12 | +8.62 | -110*DK | u24.5+102UD | Over 25.5 | 53.7 | 52.4 | -116 | +1.3% | +2.5% | -1 | ||
 Chris Olave NO WR · vs PIT | Receptions | 5.5 | 6.8 | +1.3 | -110*DK | +120UD | Over 5.5 | 53.6 | 52.4 | -116 | +1.2% | +2.3% | -1 | ||
Germie Bernard PIT WR · vs NO | Rec Yds | 55.5 | 44.9 | -10.6 | o49.5-139UD | -110*DK | Under 55.5 | 53.5 | 52.4 | -115 | +1.1% | +2.1% | +2 | ||
DK Metcalf PIT WR · vs NO | Rec Yds | 57.5 | 54.47 | -3.03 | -110*DK | u59.5-110UD | Under 59.5 | 53.4 | 52.4 | -115 | +1.1% | +2.0% | +2 | ||
 Aaron Rodgers PIT QB · vs NO | Completions | 22.5 | 22.48 | -0.02 | +104UD | -110*DK | Over 22.5 | 50.0 | 49.0 | -100 | +1.0% | +2.0% | +1 | ||
 Juwan Johnson NO TE · vs PIT | Rec Yds | 30.5 | 45.72 | +15.22 | -110*DK | u39.5-173UD | Over 30.5 | 53.4 | 52.4 | -115 | +1.0% | +1.9% | -4 | ||
Rico Dowdle PIT RB · vs NO | Rush Yds | 28.5 | 47.17 | +18.67 | -110*DK | u29.5-112UD | Over 28.5 | 53.3 | 52.4 | -114 | +0.9% | +1.8% | -5 | ||
Juwan Johnson NO TE · vs PIT | First TD | 1st | 6.5% | +1.4pp | +1460UD | — | First TD | 6.5 | 6.4 | +1437 | +0.1% | +1.5% | — | ||
 Noah Fant NO TE · vs PIT | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.2 | -0.8 | +541UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 15.8 | 15.6 | +533 | +0.2% | +1.3% | 0— | ||
Alvin Kamara NO RB · vs PIT | Rec Yds | 11.5 | 15.96 | +4.46 | -110*DK | u14.5-141UD | Over 11.5 | 52.7 | 52.4 | -111 | +0.3% | +0.6% | -3 | ||
Juwan Johnson NO TE · vs PIT | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.31 | +0.81 | -110*DK | -105UD | Over 3.5 | 52.6 | 52.4 | -111 | +0.2% | +0.4% | 0— | ||
Tyler Shough NO QB · vs PIT | Completions | 23.5 | 23.34 | -0.16 | +102UD | -110*DK | Over 23.5 | 49.7 | 49.5 | +101 | +0.2% | +0.4% | +1 | ||
Noah Fant NO TE · vs PIT | Rec Yds | 10.5 | 19.2 | +8.7 | -110*DK | u9.5+118UD | Over 10.5 | 52.4 | 52.4 | -110 | +0.0% | +0.0% | -1 | ||
Rico Dowdle PIT RB · vs NO | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.31 | +0.81 | -110*DK | -110*DK | Over 1.5 | 52.3 | 52.4 | -110 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0— | ||
Noah Fant NO TE · vs PIT | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.27 | +0.77 | -110*DK | +102UD | Over 1.5 | 52.3 | 52.4 | -110 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0— | ||
Rico Dowdle PIT RB · vs NO | Rec Yds | 8.5 | 15.27 | +6.77 | o9.5+103UD | -110*DK | Over 9.5 | 49.1 | 49.3 | +104 | -0.2% | -0.3% | -1 | ||
 Darnell Washington PIT TE · vs NO | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.27 | -0.23 | +104UD | -110*DK | Under 2.5 | 52.2 | 52.4 | -109 | -0.2% | -0.3% | 0— | ||
Chris Olave NO WR · vs PIT | Rec Yds | 74.5 | 87.08 | +12.58 | -110*DK | u79.5-129UD | Over 74.5 | 52.2 | 52.4 | -109 | -0.2% | -0.3% | +2 | ||
Jaylen Warren PIT RB · vs NO | Rush Yds | 62.5 | 69.95 | +7.45 | -110*DK | u59.5+111UD | Over 62.5 | 51.8 | 52.4 | -107 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -2 | ||
Juwan Johnson NO TE · vs PIT | Anytime TD | 1+ | 0.37 | -0.63 | +251UD | — | 1+ Anytime TD | 28.1 | 28.5 | +256 | -0.4% | -1.4% | 0 | ||
Alvin Kamara NO RB · vs PIT | Receptions | 2.5 | 3 | +0.5 | -110*DK | +102UD | Over 2.5 | 51.6 | 52.4 | -107 | -0.8% | -1.5% | -1 | ||
Aaron Rodgers PIT QB · vs NO | Rush Yds | 1.5 | 3.23 | +1.73 | -110*DK | u0.5+111UD | Under 0.5 | 46.3 | 47.4 | +116 | -1.1% | -2.2% | +1 | ||
Devaughn Vele NO WR · vs PIT | Rec Yds | 41.5 | 38.42 | -3.08 | o39.5-125UD | -110*DK | Under 41.5 | 51.2 | 52.4 | -105 | -1.2% | -2.3% | 0 |
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