Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

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Game 10 of 14

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Sun, Oct 25 · 3:05 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

DEN

Denver Broncos · 4-2

Model 25.4 · ESPN 68.6%

Proj total 45.1

ARI

Arizona Cardinals · 2-4

Model 19.7 · ESPN 31.2%

79°F · gusts 7 mph · precip 0%· State Farm Stadium

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

DEN ML

Fair -202 · Model 66.9%

-220

Edge -1.9% · EV -2.7%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

ARI ML

Fair +202 · Model 33.1%

+190

Edge -1.4% · EV -4.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Spread

DEN -4.5

Fair -107 · Model 51.8%

-108

Edge -0.1% · EV -0.2%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

ARI +4.5

Fair +107 · Model 48.2%

-109

Edge -4.0% · EV -7.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 43.5

Fair -110 · Model 52.4%

-104

Edge +1.4% · EV +2.8%

Kelly ¼: 0.72% of bankroll ($7.24 of $1000)

Under 43.5

Fair +110 · Model 47.6%

-108

Edge -4.3% · EV -8.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	DEN ML	ARI ML	DEN Spread	ARI Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	-230	+190	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	o43.5-112	u43.5-108
FanDuel	-220	+184	-4.5-108	+4.5-112	o43.5-110	u43.5-110
BetMGM	-225	+185	-4.5-108	+4.5-110	o43.5-108	u43.5-110
Caesars	-225	+186	-4.5-108	+4.5-112	o43.5-110	u43.5-110
bet365	-230	+185	-4.5-109	+4.5-111	o43.5-110	u43.5-110
BetRivers	-240	+188	-4.5-113	+4.5-109	o43.5-104	u43.5-117
Unibet	-227	+185	-4.5-111	+4.5-110	o43.5-106	u43.5-114
Consensus	-227	+185	-4.5-108	+4.5-111	o43.5-110	u43.5-110
Opening Line	-375	+295	-7.5-110	+7.5-110	o43.5-110	u43.5-110

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Broncos favored, slight over value

Denver projects as the better side here, 25.4-19.7, with the model making the Broncos about 6-point favorites and giving them a 66.9% win probability. The cleanest betting edge in the main markets is the Over 43.5, with a 45.1 projected total and +2.78% EV, while side prices look close to fair.

Model score is DEN 25.4, ARI 19.7; fair spread ARI +6.0 versus market ARI +4.5/DEN -4.5, but DEN -4.5 still shows only -0.24% EV.
Total projection is 45.1 against 43.5 in market, making Over 43.5 the only positive-EV main market at 52.4% model probability and +2.78% EV.
Recent form favors Denver: Broncos are 4-2 and 4-1 in their last five, while Arizona is 2-4 and has lost four of its last five.
Injuries add volatility on both sides: Arizona lists Budda Baker, Max Melton, Andrew Wingard, Carson Beck, and Jeremiyah Love as questionable; Denver has Pat Surtain II and Jaylen Waddle questionable with Talanoa Hufanga
Weather/venue should not be a major drag on scoring: indoor State Farm Stadium with 79 degrees listed, 7 mph gusts, and no precipitation.

Props to watch

J.K. Dobbins Over 1.5 Receptions (+167): highest listed prop EV at +25.22% with a 46.9% model probability.
Bam Knight 1+ Anytime TD (+436): long-shot TD price still carries +21.67% EV from a 22.7% model probability.
Trey McBride Over 7.5 Receptions (+120): volume-based look with 50.6% model probability and +11.32% EV.

Lean: Over 43.5

Injury Report

DEN

Tyler Badie RBQuestionable · Thumb
Pat Surtain II CBQuestionable · Ankle
Jonah Coleman RBInjured Reserve · Ankle
Jaylen Waddle WRQuestionable · Chest
Talanoa Hufanga SDoubtful · Ankle

ARI

Andrew Wingard SQuestionable · Knee
Max Melton CBQuestionable · Knee
Budda Baker SQuestionable · Groin
Carson Beck QBQuestionable · Back
Jeremiyah Love RBQuestionable · Ankle

Recent Form · Series

DEN

WWLWW

ARI

LLLLW

Game Props

DEN @ ARI · Player Props

61 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
J.K. Dobbins DEN RB · vs ARI	Receptions	1.5	1.24	-0.26	+167UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	46.9	37.5	+113	+9.4%	+25.2%	0—
Bam Knight ARI RB · vs DEN	Anytime TD	1+	0.42	-0.58	+436UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	22.7	18.7	+341	+4.0%	+21.7%	0
Troy Franklin DEN WR · vs ARI	Anytime TD	1+	0.35	-0.65	+477UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	20.9	17.3	+378	+3.6%	+20.6%	0—
Tyler Allgeier ARI RB · vs DEN	Carries	12.5	8.66	-3.84	-110*DK	-102UD	Under 12.5	58.0	50.5	-138	+7.5%	+14.9%	-1
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB · vs DEN	Pass TDs	1.5	1.56	+0.06	+129UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	49.2	43.7	+103	+5.5%	+12.7%	0—
Trey McBride ARI TE · vs DEN	Receptions	7.5	7.86	+0.36	+120UD	-110*DK	Over 7.5	50.6	45.5	-102	+5.2%	+11.3%	0—
Troy Franklin DEN WR · vs ARI	First TD	1st	4.6%	+1.2pp	+2310UD	—	First TD	4.6	4.1	+2068	+0.5%	+11.1%	—
Tyler Allgeier ARI RB · vs DEN	Rush Yds	44.5	27.79	-16.71	o39.5-134UD	-110*DK	Under 44.5	57.7	52.4	-136	+5.3%	+10.2%	-2
RJ Harvey DEN RB · vs ARI	Rush Yds	18.5	23.12	+4.62	o14.5-143UD	-110*DK	Over 14.5	64.5	58.8	-182	+5.6%	+9.6%	0—
Bam Knight ARI RB · vs DEN	Rush Yds	34.5	22.42	-12.08	o29.5-121UD	-110*DK	Under 34.5	57.2	52.4	-134	+4.8%	+9.2%	+4
Courtland Sutton DEN WR · vs ARI	Receptions	3.5	3.04	-0.46	o2.5-179UD	-110*DK	Over 2.5	69.5	64.2	-228	+5.3%	+8.3%	0—
Michael Wilson ARI WR · vs DEN	Receptions	4.5	5.14	+0.64	+108UD	-110*DK	Over 4.5	51.7	48.1	-107	+3.6%	+7.5%	0—
Troy Franklin DEN WR · vs ARI	Receptions	1.5	3.82	+2.32	+106UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	51.9	48.5	-108	+3.4%	+6.9%	0—
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN WR · vs ARI	Rec Yds	14.5	21.47	+6.97	+100UD	-110*DK	Over 14.5	53.4	50.0	-115	+3.4%	+6.8%	+2
Bam Knight ARI RB · vs DEN	Carries	8.5	6.83	-1.67	-105UD	-110*DK	Under 8.5	55.3	52.4	-124	+2.9%	+5.6%	0—
Bo Nix DEN QB · vs ARI	Pass Yds	221.5	197.39	-24.11	-110*DK	u224.5-115UD	Under 224.5	55.9	53.5	-127	+2.4%	+4.4%	0
Marvin Mims Jr. DEN WR · vs ARI	Receptions	1.5	2.47	+0.97	-110*DK	+116UD	Under 1.5	47.7	46.3	+110	+1.4%	+3.0%	0—
Courtland Sutton DEN WR · vs ARI	Rec Yds	34.5	36.23	+1.73	-110*DK	u39.5-137UD	Under 39.5	59.3	57.8	-146	+1.5%	+2.5%	-1
RJ Harvey DEN RB · vs ARI	Anytime TD	1+	0.42	-0.58	+243UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	29.8	29.2	+236	+0.7%	+2.2%	0
Jaylen Waddle DEN WR · vs ARI	Receptions	4.5	3.8	-0.7	-105UD	-110*DK	Under 4.5	53.5	52.4	-115	+1.1%	+2.1%	-1
Bo Nix DEN QB · vs ARI	Pass TDs	1.5	1.19	-0.31	+104UD	-110*DK	Under 1.5	53.5	52.4	-115	+1.1%	+2.1%	0—
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB · vs DEN	Completions	23.5	24.6	+1.1	-104UD	-110*DK	Over 23.5	51.9	51.0	-108	+0.9%	+1.8%	+1
Kendrick Bourne ARI WR · vs DEN	Receptions	3.5	3.12	-0.38	+102UD	-110*DK	Under 3.5	52.5	52.4	-111	+0.1%	+0.2%	0—
J.K. Dobbins DEN RB · vs ARI	Rush Yds	49.5	57.88	+8.38	-110*DK	-109UD	Over 49.5	52.5	52.4	-111	+0.1%	+0.2%	-9
Bo Nix DEN QB · vs ARI	Completions	21.5	20.53	-0.97	-110*DK	-108UD	Under 21.5	52.0	51.9	-108	+0.1%	+0.1%	0—
Troy Franklin DEN WR · vs ARI	Rec Yds	15.5	41.71	+26.21	o14.5-112UD	-110*DK	Over 14.5	52.5	52.8	-110	-0.3%	-0.7%	-1
Jaylen Waddle DEN WR · vs ARI	Rec Yds	51.5	45.55	-5.95	o49.5-120UD	-110*DK	Under 51.5	52.0	52.4	-108	-0.4%	-0.7%	-3
J.K. Dobbins DEN RB · vs ARI	Rec Yds	5.5	4.18	-1.32	o4.5-112UD	-110*DK	Over 4.5	52.4	52.8	-110	-0.4%	-0.8%	0
Michael Wilson ARI WR · vs DEN	Rec Yds	48.5	55.67	+7.17	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 48.5	51.9	52.4	-108	-0.5%	-0.9%	0
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB · vs DEN	Rush Yds	7.5	11.2	+3.7	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 7.5	51.8	52.4	-107	-0.6%	-1.1%	+1
Bam Knight ARI RB · vs DEN	First TD	1st	8.2%	+1.4pp	+1110UD	—	First TD	8.2	8.3	+1124	-0.1%	-1.2%	—
RJ Harvey DEN RB · vs ARI	Rec Yds	24.5	27.42	+2.92	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 24.5	51.6	52.4	-107	-0.8%	-1.5%	0
Evan Engram DEN TE · vs ARI	Rec Yds	23.5	24.93	+1.43	o24.5+104UD	-110*DK	Over 24.5	48.0	49.0	+108	-1.0%	-2.1%	+1
Evan Engram DEN TE · vs ARI	Receptions	2.5	2.45	-0.05	-110*DK	-110*DK	Under 2.5	51.2	52.4	-105	-1.2%	-2.3%	0—
J.K. Dobbins DEN RB · vs ARI	Carries	13.5	14.22	+0.72	-110*DK	-102UD	Over 13.5	51.2	52.4	-105	-1.2%	-2.3%	0—
RJ Harvey DEN RB · vs ARI	Receptions	3.5	3.78	+0.28	-110*DK	-103UD	Under 3.5	49.5	50.7	+102	-1.2%	-2.4%	0—
Bo Nix DEN QB · vs ARI	Rush Yds	10.5	12.08	+1.58	-110*DK	u9.5+105UD	Over 10.5	51.1	52.4	-104	-1.3%	-2.5%	-2
Trey McBride ARI TE · vs DEN	First TD	1st	11.2%	+1.7pp	+764UD	—	First TD	11.2	11.6	+792	-0.4%	-3.1%	—
Kendrick Bourne ARI WR · vs DEN	Rec Yds	35.5	36.27	+0.77	-110*DK	u39.5-148UD	Under 39.5	57.7	59.7	-136	-2.0%	-3.4%	-2
Jacoby Brissett ARI QB · vs DEN	Pass Yds	225.5	228.97	+3.47	-110*DK	u224.5-105UD	Over 225.5	50.5	52.4	-102	-1.9%	-3.6%	-13

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