Deterministic model — ESPN spread + O/U converted to win-prob using historical NFL spread tables. Real Kelly/CLV live once NFL_ALGO_API_URL is wired.
Jordan Addison
MIN · WRReceptionsUNDERMODEL
Line
3.5
Model
2.8
Edge
-0.75
Kelly
3.8%
INDvs
MIN10/25 - 1:00 PM EDT
Jahan Dotson
ATL · WRReceptionsUNDERMODEL
Line
2.5
Model
1.8
Edge
-0.67
Kelly
3.3%
SFvs
ATL10/25 - 1:00 PM EDT
Jake Ferguson
DAL · TEReceptionsUNDERMODEL
Line
3.5
Model
2.8
Edge
-0.67
Kelly
3.3%
DALvs
PHI10/26 - 8:15 PM EDT
Josh Downs
IND · WRReceptionsUNDERMODEL
Line
4.5
Model
4
Edge
-0.5
Kelly
2.5%
INDvsMIN10/25 - 1:00 PM EDT
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU · WRReceptionsUNDERMODEL
Line
3.5
Model
3
Edge
-0.5
Kelly
2.5%
NYGvs
HOU10/25 - 1:00 PM EDT
Mark Andrews
BAL · TEAnytime TDNOMODEL
Line
-120
Model
20%
Edge
-34.3%
Kelly
5.0%
CINvs
BAL10/25 - 1:00 PM EDT
Drake London
ATL · WRReceptionsUNDERMODEL
Line
5.5
Model
5.2
Edge
-0.33
Kelly
1.7%
SFvsATL10/25 - 1:00 PM EDTJordan Addison
MIN · WRAnytime TDNOMODEL
Line
-120
Model
22%
Edge
-32.4%
Kelly
4.9%
INDvsMIN10/25 - 1:00 PM EDT
Tank Bigsby
PHI · RBAnytime TDNOMODEL
Line
-120
Model
22%
Edge
-32.4%
Kelly
4.9%
DALvsPHI10/26 - 8:15 PM EDT
Braelon Allen
NYJ · RBRush YdsOVERMODEL
Line
47.5
Model
52.3
Edge
4.8
Kelly
1.6%
MIAvs
NYJ10/25 - 1:00 PM EDT
Evan Engram
DEN · TERec YdsOVERMODEL
Line
17.5
Model
22.3
Edge
4.8
Kelly
1.6%
DENvs
ARI10/25 - 4:05 PM EDT
Jared Goff
DET · QBAnytime TDNOMODEL
Line
-120
Model
23%
Edge
-31.7%
Kelly
4.8%
GBvs
DET10/25 - 4:25 PM EDTModel-based projections from ESPN season averages — Kelly stake is a proxy pending real book prices.
Total Bets
1868
graded
Hit Rate
61.6%
1150/1868 wins
Best Tier
79.1%
HAMMER · 641
Best Market
79.2%
Pass TDs · 24
By Tier
HAMMER
79.1%507/641
PLAY
51.4%336/654
LEAN
54.5%230/422
SPRINKLE
57.0%61/107
PASS
36.4%16/44
By Market
Rec Yds
58.1%611/1052
Rush Yds
66.5%334/502
Pass Yds
62.4%131/210
Receptions
68.8%55/80
Pass TDs
79.2%19/24
Top Winners
Tua Tagovailoa
Pass Yds · UNDER 200.5
34
BAL @ ATL
Tua Tagovailoa
Pass Yds · UNDER 200.5
34
BAL @ ATL
Fernando Mendoza
Pass Yds · UNDER 200.5
48
LV @ NE
Fernando Mendoza
Pass Yds · UNDER 200.5
48
LV @ NE
Sione Vaki
Rush Yds · UNDER 40.5
11
DET @ ARI
Toughest Losses
Samaje Perine
Rush Yds · UNDER 40.5
68
CIN @ MIA
Roschon Johnson
Rush Yds · UNDER 40.5
51
CHI @ ATL
Roschon Johnson
Rush Yds · UNDER 40.5
51
CHI @ ATL
Kyler Murray
Rush Yds · UNDER 40.5
51
MIN @ NO
Kyler Murray
Rush Yds · UNDER 40.5
51
MIN @ NO
Upcoming13 games
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