Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NFL Terminal

Game 3 of 14

PrevPIT @ NO

NextCLE @ TEN

Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

San Francisco 49ers · 6-0

Model 27.7 · ESPN 79.1%

Proj total 48.4

ATL

Atlanta Falcons · 2-4

Model 20.8 · ESPN 20.7%

64°F · gusts 21 mph · precip 0%· Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

SF ML

Fair -170 · Model 62.9%

-146

Edge +3.5% · EV +6.0%

Kelly ¼: 2.18% of bankroll ($21.84 of $1000)

ATL ML

Fair +170 · Model 37.1%

+133

Edge -5.8% · EV -13.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Spread

SF -3

Fair -132 · Model 55.4%

-105

Edge +4.1% · EV +8.1%

Kelly ¼: 2.14% of bankroll ($21.42 of $1000)

ATL +2.5

Fair +132 · Model 43.2%

+104

UNI

Edge -5.8% · EV -11.9%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 49.5

Fair +104 · Model 49.1%

-113

Edge -4.0% · EV -7.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 50

Fair -104 · Model 52.4%

-110

MGM

Edge +0.1% · EV +0.1%

Kelly ¼: 0.01% of bankroll ($0.10 of $1000)

Line shopping · every book

Book	SF ML	ATL ML	SF Spread	ATL Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	-148	+124	-2.5-118	+2.5-102	o49.5-115	u49.5-105
FanDuel	-146	+124	-2.5-120	+2.5-102	o49.5-115	u49.5-105
BetMGM	-150	+125	-2.5-118	+2.5-102	o50-108	u50-110
Caesars	-148	+125	-2.5-120	+2.5+100	o50-110	u50-110
bet365	-148	+124	-2.5-119	+2.5-101	o49.5-113	u49.5-107
BetRivers	-159	+133	-3-105	+3-117	o49.5-113	u49.5-108
Unibet	-149	+125	-2.5-125	+2.5+104	o49.5-114	u49.5-106
Consensus	-149	+124	-2.5-118	+2.5-102	o49.5-115	u49.5-106
Opening Line	-230	+190	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	o47.5-110	u47.5-110

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

49ers hold clear edge in Atlanta

The model makes San Francisco about a 7-point favorite with a 48.4 total, which is notably stronger than the current spread near SF -3. Atlanta enters 2-4 and has dropped three of its last five, while San Francisco is 6-0 on a five-game win streak. Weather looks manageable indoors, so the main handicap centers on whether Atlanta can outperform a modest 20.8-point projection.

Model projection: SF 27.7, ATL 20.8, for a 6.9-point margin and 48.4 total.
Best market edge is SF -3 (-105) with 55.4% model cover probability and +8.09% EV; SF ML (-146) also shows +5.98% EV.
Atlanta is just 2-4 and 2-3 in its last five, while San Francisco is 6-0 with a five-game winning streak.
Total is priced efficiently: fair total 48.5 versus market 49.5/50, with Under 50 carrying only +0.09% EV.
Injuries add some uncertainty on both sides, with multiple questionables for Atlanta and San Francisco, including Nick Bosa and Mike Evans for SF, plus Olamide Zaccheaus and Brian Robinson Jr. for ATL.

Props to watch

Olamide Zaccheaus Over 1.5 Receptions (+188): highest listed prop EV at +50.62%, though his questionable tag matters.
Bijan Robinson Under 3.5 Receptions (+131): model gives 49.2% probability with +13.65% EV in a game where Atlanta is projected for only 20.8 points.
Michael Penix Jr. Under 19.5 Completions (+102): modest but positive +7.46% EV, aligned with a relatively restrained Atlanta team total.

Lean: SF -3

Injury Report

Nick Bosa DEQuestionable · Knee
Christian Kirk WRInjured Reserve · Calf
Mike Evans WRQuestionable · Achilles
Jaden Dugger LBQuestionable · Knee
Mykel Williams DEQuestionable · Knee

ATL

Cameron Williams OLInjured Reserve · Ankle
Olamide Zaccheaus WRQuestionable · Shoulder
Brian Robinson Jr. RBQuestionable · Hamstring
Cameron Thomas DEQuestionable · Ankle
Gervon Dexter Sr. DTQuestionable · Hamstring

Recent Form · Series

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ATL

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Game Props

SF @ ATL · Player Props

44 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR · vs SF	Receptions	1.5	2.44	+0.94	+188UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	52.3	34.7	-110	+17.6%	+50.6%	0—
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL TE · vs SF	First TD	1st	7.5%	+1.9pp	+1670UD	—	First TD	7.5	5.6	+1227	+1.9%	+33.4%	—
George Kittle SF TE · vs ATL	First TD	1st	14.9%	+2.7pp	+720UD	—	First TD	14.9	12.2	+571	+2.7%	+22.3%	—
Bijan Robinson ATL RB · vs SF	Receptions	3.5	3.86	+0.36	-110*DK	+131UD	Under 3.5	49.2	43.3	+103	+5.9%	+13.7%	0—
Michael Penix Jr. ATL QB · vs SF	Completions	19.5	18.1	-1.4	-110*DK	+102UD	Under 19.5	53.2	49.5	-114	+3.7%	+7.5%	+1
Christian McCaffrey SF RB · vs ATL	First TD	1st	25.9%	+1.7pp	+314UD	—	First TD	25.9	24.2	+286	+1.7%	+7.2%	—
Drake London ATL WR · vs SF	Receptions	5.5	5.37	-0.13	-110*DK	+109UD	Under 5.5	51.1	47.8	-104	+3.3%	+6.8%	0—
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR · vs SF	Rec Yds	7.5	19.56	+12.06	o9.5+121UD	-110*DK	Over 9.5	47.3	45.2	+112	+2.0%	+4.4%	0
Michael Penix Jr. ATL QB · vs SF	Pass TDs	1.5	1.25	-0.25	+122UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	47.0	45.0	+113	+1.9%	+4.3%	0—
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL TE · vs SF	Receptions	3.5	3.57	+0.07	+110UD	-110*DK	Over 3.5	49.5	47.6	+102	+1.9%	+4.0%	0—
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL TE · vs SF	Anytime TD	1+	0.42	-0.58	+259UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	28.9	27.9	+246	+1.0%	+3.8%	0—
Christian McCaffrey SF RB · vs ATL	Rec Yds	44.5	40.74	-3.76	-110*DK	u49.5-139UD	Under 49.5	59.9	58.2	-150	+1.8%	+3.1%	-1
Brock Purdy SF QB · vs ATL	Rush Yds	20.5	22.13	+1.63	o19.5-112UD	-110*DK	Over 19.5	54.4	52.8	-119	+1.5%	+2.9%	+3
George Kittle SF TE · vs ATL	Receptions	5.5	4.67	-0.83	+102UD	-110*DK	Under 5.5	53.6	52.4	-116	+1.2%	+2.3%	0—
George Kittle SF TE · vs ATL	Rec Yds	70.5	56.54	-13.96	o69.5-112UD	-110*DK	Under 70.5	53.6	52.4	-116	+1.2%	+2.3%	+4
Brock Purdy SF QB · vs ATL	Pass TDs	1.5	2.29	+0.79	-110*DK	+114UD	Under 1.5	47.7	46.7	+110	+1.0%	+2.1%	0—
Bijan Robinson ATL RB · vs SF	Rec Yds	27.5	33.69	+6.19	o24.5-136UD	-110*DK	Over 24.5	58.6	57.6	-142	+1.0%	+1.7%	+4
Kyle Pitts Sr. ATL TE · vs SF	Rec Yds	33.5	38.74	+5.24	-110*DK	u39.5-139UD	Under 39.5	59.1	58.2	-145	+1.0%	+1.7%	-1
Christian McCaffrey SF RB · vs ATL	Receptions	5.5	5.2	-0.3	+110UD	-110*DK	Over 5.5	48.3	47.6	+107	+0.7%	+1.4%	0—
Brock Purdy SF QB · vs ATL	Completions	20.5	20.66	+0.16	+100UD	-110*DK	Over 20.5	50.3	50.0	-101	+0.3%	+0.6%	0—
Kaelon Black SF RB · vs ATL	First TD	1st	5.6%	0pp	+1700UD	—	First TD	5.6	5.6	+1698	+0.0%	+0.1%	—
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR · vs SF	Anytime TD	1+	0.12	-0.88	+846UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	10.5	10.6	+852	-0.1%	-0.7%	0—
Bijan Robinson ATL RB · vs SF	Rush Yds	88.5	98.88	+10.38	o89.5-106UD	-110*DK	Over 89.5	51.0	51.5	-104	-0.5%	-0.9%	+3
Bijan Robinson ATL RB · vs SF	Carries	18.5	17.85	-0.65	-110*DK	-110*DK	Under 18.5	51.6	52.4	-107	-0.8%	-1.5%	0
Christian McCaffrey SF RB · vs ATL	Carries	15.5	15.02	-0.48	-105UD	-110*DK	Under 15.5	51.4	52.4	-106	-1.0%	-1.9%	0—
George Kittle SF TE · vs ATL	Anytime TD	1+	0.75	-0.25	+100UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	48.9	50.0	+104	-1.1%	-2.2%	0
Christian McCaffrey SF RB · vs ATL	Rush Yds	60.5	63.28	+2.78	-110*DK	u59.5-102UD	Over 60.5	50.8	52.4	-103	-1.6%	-3.0%	-1
Brock Purdy SF QB · vs ATL	Carries	4.5	4.47	-0.03	-103UD	-110*DK	Under 4.5	50.8	52.4	-103	-1.6%	-3.0%	0—
Michael Penix Jr. ATL QB · vs SF	Rush Yds	1.5	4.51	+3.01	o4.5+139UD	-110*DK	Over 4.5	40.5	41.8	+147	-1.3%	-3.1%	0—
Brock Purdy SF QB · vs ATL	Pass Yds	242.5	242.31	-0.19	-110*DK	u249.5-129UD	Under 249.5	54.4	56.3	-119	-1.9%	-3.4%	0
Drake London ATL WR · vs SF	Rec Yds	83.5	85.63	+2.13	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 83.5	50.4	52.4	-102	-2.0%	-3.8%	+4
Kaelon Black SF RB · vs ATL	Rush Yds	29.5	28.8	-0.7	-110*DK	-110*DK	Under 29.5	50.4	52.4	-102	-2.0%	-3.8%	0
Michael Penix Jr. ATL QB · vs SF	Pass Yds	228.5	228.11	-0.39	-110*DK	u224.5+102UD	Under 224.5	47.4	49.5	+111	-2.1%	-4.2%	+2
Christian McCaffrey SF RB · vs ATL	Anytime TD	2+	1.1	-0.9	+197UD	—	2+ Anytime TD	31.0	33.7	+223	-2.7%	-7.9%	0
Bijan Robinson ATL RB · vs SF	First TD	1st	24.4%	-2.3pp	+275UD	—	First TD	24.4	26.7	+310	-2.3%	-8.6%	—
Brock Purdy SF QB · vs ATL	First TD	1st	7.7%	-0.8pp	+1080UD	—	First TD	7.7	8.5	+1204	-0.8%	-9.5%	—
Bijan Robinson ATL RB · vs SF	Anytime TD	1+	0.76	-0.24	-213UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	60.0	68.1	-150	-8.1%	-11.8%	0
Brock Purdy SF QB · vs ATL	Anytime TD	1+	0.23	-0.77	+259UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	24.2	27.9	+313	-3.7%	-13.1%	0—
Drake London ATL WR · vs SF	First TD	1st	10.4%	-2.3pp	+691UD	—	First TD	10.4	12.6	+863	-2.3%	-17.9%	—
Christian Kirk SF WR · vs ATL	First TD	1st	3.7%	-0.9pp	+2090UD	—	First TD	3.7	4.6	+2616	-0.9%	-19.4%	—

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