Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NFL Terminal

Game 8 of 14

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Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

CIN

Cincinnati Bengals · 3-2

Model 23.4 · ESPN 53.8%

Proj total 50.7

BAL

Baltimore Ravens · 4-2

Model 27.3 · ESPN 45.8%

59°F · gusts 6 mph · precip 0%· M&T Bank Stadium

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

CIN ML

Fair +128 · Model 43.9%

+103

CZR

Edge -5.4% · EV -10.9%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

BAL ML

Fair -128 · Model 56.1%

-118

Edge +2.0% · EV +3.6%

Kelly ¼: 1.07% of bankroll ($10.75 of $1000)

Spread

CIN +1.5

Fair +111 · Model 47.5%

-110

Edge -4.9% · EV -9.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

BAL -1

Fair -111 · Model 54.0%

-109

Edge +1.8% · EV +3.5%

Kelly ¼: 0.97% of bankroll ($9.65 of $1000)

Total

Over 48.5

Fair -116 · Model 53.6%

-108

Edge +1.7% · EV +3.2%

Kelly ¼: 0.87% of bankroll ($8.72 of $1000)

Under 48.5

Fair +116 · Model 46.4%

-105

Edge -4.8% · EV -9.4%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	CIN ML	BAL ML	CIN Spread	BAL Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	-102	-118	+1.5-115	-1.5-105	o48.5-115	u48.5-105
FanDuel	+102	-120	+1.5-110	-1.5-110	o48.5-115	u48.5-105
BetMGM	+100	-120	+1.5-110	-1.5-108	o48.5-110	u48.5-108
Caesars	+103	-121	+1.5-115	-1.5-104	o48.5-113	u48.5-107
bet365	+100	-120	+1.5-111	-1.5-109	o48.5-115	u48.5-105
BetRivers	-104	-118	+1-112	-1-109	o48.5-108	u48.5-113
Unibet	-100	-120	+1.5-110	-1.5-111	o48.5-114	u48.5-106
Consensus	-100	-120	+1.5-110	-1.5-109	o48.5-115	u48.5-105
Opening Line	+154	-185	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	o51.5-110	u51.5-110

Game Props

CIN @ BAL · Player Props

43 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Derrick Henry BAL RB · vs CIN	Receptions	1.5	1.25	-0.25	+143UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	47.0	41.2	+113	+5.8%	+14.2%	0—
Mike Gesicki CIN TE · vs BAL	First TD	1st	6.5%	+1.7pp	+1640UD	—	First TD	6.5	5.7	+1447	+0.7%	+12.5%	—
Joe Burrow CIN QB · vs BAL	Pass TDs	1.5	2.17	+0.67	-110*DK	+135UD	Under 1.5	47.7	42.6	+110	+5.2%	+12.1%	0—
Mike Gesicki CIN TE · vs BAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.51	-0.49	+263UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	30.8	27.5	+225	+3.3%	+11.8%	0
Justice Hill BAL RB · vs CIN	Anytime TD	1+	0.3	-0.7	+431UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	20.5	18.8	+388	+1.7%	+8.8%	0
Tee Higgins CIN WR · vs BAL	Receptions	4.5	4.75	+0.25	-110*DK	u5.5-179UD	Under 5.5	67.1	64.2	-204	+3.0%	+4.6%	0—
Chase Brown CIN RB · vs BAL	Rec Yds	21.5	25.2	+3.7	o24.5+139UD	-110*DK	Over 24.5	43.7	41.8	+129	+1.9%	+4.4%	+3
Chase Brown CIN RB · vs BAL	Receptions	3.5	4.47	+0.97	-105UD	-110*DK	Over 3.5	53.2	51.2	-114	+2.0%	+3.9%	0—
Dohnte Meyers CIN WR · vs BAL	Receptions	1.5	2.11	+0.61	-110*DK	+116UD	Under 1.5	47.8	46.3	+109	+1.5%	+3.3%	-1
Justice Hill BAL RB · vs CIN	First TD	1st	4.6%	+0.9pp	+2120UD	—	First TD	4.6	4.5	+2060	+0.1%	+2.8%	—
Joe Burrow CIN QB · vs BAL	Completions	24.5	24.61	+0.11	-110*DK	+106UD	Under 24.5	49.8	48.5	+101	+1.3%	+2.6%	0
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR · vs BAL	Receptions	7.5	6.47	-1.03	o6.5-164UD	-110*DK	Under 7.5	53.7	52.4	-116	+1.3%	+2.5%	+1
Dohnte Meyers CIN WR · vs BAL	Rec Yds	12.5	21.22	+8.72	o14.5+115UD	-110*DK	Over 14.5	47.4	46.5	+111	+0.9%	+1.9%	-9
Mike Gesicki CIN TE · vs BAL	Rec Yds	22.5	28.16	+5.66	-110*DK	u24.5-125UD	Over 22.5	53.0	52.4	-113	+0.6%	+1.2%	0
Chase Brown CIN RB · vs BAL	Carries	12.5	13.95	+1.45	-110*DK	+103UD	Over 12.5	52.9	52.4	-112	+0.5%	+1.0%	0
Derrick Henry BAL RB · vs CIN	Carries	19.5	20.22	+0.72	-103UD	-110*DK	Over 19.5	51.0	50.7	-104	+0.3%	+0.5%	0
Derrick Henry BAL RB · vs CIN	Rush Yds	87.5	90.93	+3.43	o89.5+104UD	-110*DK	Over 89.5	48.9	49.0	+105	-0.1%	-0.3%	0
Chase Brown CIN RB · vs BAL	Rush Yds	47.5	53.97	+6.47	o49.5+103UD	u49.5-125UD	Over 49.5	49.1	49.3	+104	-0.2%	-0.3%	-2
Joe Burrow CIN QB · vs BAL	Pass Yds	260.5	251.72	-8.78	-110*DK	u274.5-148UD	Under 274.5	59.4	59.7	-146	-0.3%	-0.5%	+1
Mike Gesicki CIN TE · vs BAL	Receptions	2.5	2.29	-0.21	-110*DK	-110*DK	Under 2.5	52.1	52.4	-109	-0.3%	-0.5%	0—
Joe Burrow CIN QB · vs BAL	Rush Yds	6.5	7.61	+1.11	o9.5+143UD	-110*DK	Over 9.5	40.9	41.2	+145	-0.3%	-0.7%	0—
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR · vs BAL	Rec Yds	80.5	71.33	-9.17	o79.5-112UD	-110*DK	Under 80.5	51.9	52.4	-108	-0.5%	-0.9%	+1
Tee Higgins CIN WR · vs BAL	Rec Yds	64.5	72.07	+7.57	-110*DK	u69.5-129UD	Over 64.5	51.6	52.4	-107	-0.8%	-1.5%	-2
Derrick Henry BAL RB · vs CIN	Rec Yds	6.5	9.93	+3.43	-110*DK	u9.5-162UD	Over 6.5	51.6	52.4	-107	-0.8%	-1.5%	0—
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR · vs BAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.67	-0.33	+116UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	45.2	46.3	+121	-1.1%	-2.4%	0
Derrick Henry BAL RB · vs CIN	Anytime TD	1+	1.18	+0.18	-193UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	64.2	65.9	-179	-1.7%	-2.5%	0
Tee Higgins CIN WR · vs BAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.44	-0.56	+137UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	38.0	42.2	+163	-4.2%	-9.9%	0
Rashod Bateman BAL WR · vs CIN	Anytime TD	1+	0.19	-0.81	+358UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	19.4	21.8	+415	-2.4%	-11.2%	0
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR · vs BAL	First TD	1st	12.6%	+0.7pp	+602UD	—	First TD	12.6	14.2	+695	-1.7%	-11.7%	—
Zay Flowers BAL WR · vs CIN	Anytime TD	1+	0.38	-0.62	+143UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	36.0	41.2	+178	-5.2%	-12.5%	0
Derrick Henry BAL RB · vs CIN	First TD	1st	22.7%	+1pp	+283UD	—	First TD	22.7	26.1	+340	-3.4%	-12.9%	—
Joe Burrow CIN QB · vs BAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.11	-0.89	+572UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	12.7	14.9	+687	-2.2%	-14.7%	0—
Tee Higgins CIN WR · vs BAL	First TD	1st	9%	+0.1pp	+829UD	—	First TD	9.0	10.8	+1009	-1.7%	-16.2%	—
Chase Brown CIN RB · vs BAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.4	-0.6	+100UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	41.9	50.0	+139	-8.1%	-16.2%	0
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL WR · vs CIN	Anytime TD	1+	0.19	-0.81	+283UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	21.8	26.1	+359	-4.3%	-16.5%	0—
Ja'Kobi Lane BAL WR · vs CIN	First TD	1st	7.1%	0pp	+1080UD	—	First TD	7.1	8.5	+1316	-1.4%	-16.7%	—
Dohnte Meyers CIN WR · vs BAL	First TD	1st	3.7%	0pp	+2170UD	—	First TD	3.7	4.4	+2625	-0.7%	-16.7%	—
Mark Andrews BAL TE · vs CIN	Anytime TD	1+	0.24	-0.76	+186UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	28.7	35.0	+248	-6.3%	-17.9%	0
Zay Flowers BAL WR · vs CIN	First TD	1st	8.9%	-0.6pp	+776UD	—	First TD	8.9	11.4	+1017	-2.5%	-21.6%	—
Dohnte Meyers CIN WR · vs BAL	Anytime TD	1+	0.11	-0.89	+314UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	18.4	24.2	+443	-5.8%	-23.8%	0

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