Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

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Game 4 of 14

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Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

CLE

Cleveland Browns · 4-2

Model 18.3 · ESPN 49.5%

Proj total 34.2

TEN

Tennessee Titans · 1-5

Model 15.9 · ESPN 50.1%

70°F · gusts 6 mph · precip 0%· Nissan Stadium

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

CLE ML

Fair -126 · Model 55.7%

-125

CZR

Edge +0.1% · EV +0.3%

Kelly ¼: 0.08% of bankroll ($0.81 of $1000)

TEN ML

Fair +126 · Model 44.3%

+110

Edge -3.3% · EV -7.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Spread

CLE -1.5

Fair -105 · Model 51.1%

-108

Edge -0.8% · EV -1.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

TEN +2.5

Fair +105 · Model 51.9%

-111

UNI

Edge -0.7% · EV -1.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 37.5

Fair +125 · Model 44.5%

-102

Edge -6.0% · EV -11.9%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 37.5

Fair -125 · Model 55.5%

-110

Edge +3.1% · EV +6.0%

Kelly ¼: 1.64% of bankroll ($16.38 of $1000)

Line shopping · every book

Book	CLE ML	TEN ML	CLE Spread	TEN Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	-130	+110	-1.5-108	+1.5-112	o37.5-102	u37.5-118
FanDuel	-126	+108	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	o37.5-105	u37.5-115
BetMGM	-130	+110	-2-108	+2-110	o37-112	u37-105
Caesars	-125	+107	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	o37.5-106	u37.5-114
bet365	-128	+108	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	o37.5-104	u37.5-116
BetRivers	-129	+105	-2-109	+2-113	o37.5-112	u37.5-110
Unibet	-128	+108	-2.5-110	+2.5-111	o37.5-105	u37.5-118
Consensus	-130	+109	-1.5-109	+1.5-111	o37.5-103	u37.5-115
Opening Line	+114	-135	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	o40.5-110	u40.5-110

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Model points to low-scoring Browns edge

The projection has Cleveland ahead 18.3-15.9 in a game with a modest 34.2 total, so the clearest numbers-based angle is the under rather than a side. Market prices are tight on the spread and moneyline, with Cleveland only showing a marginal edge on the ML while Tennessee and Cleveland both carry multiple questionable tags.

Model total is 34.2 versus a market total of 37.5, and Under 37.5 at -110 carries the best listed game EV at +5.95%.
Cleveland is projected by 2.5 points, but available side prices are efficient: CLE ML -125 shows only +0.26% EV, while spread options are negative EV on both teams.
Recent form favors Cleveland: Browns are 4-2 and 4-1 in their last five, while Tennessee is 1-5 and 1-4 in its last five.
Weather looks neutral for scoring conditions at Nissan Stadium: 70 degrees, 6 mph gusts, and no precipitation.
Injuries are more about uncertainty than clear directional impact here, with five listed questionable/IR players for each side; Tennessee notably has Calvin Ridley questionable.

Props to watch

Elic Ayomanor Over 1.5 Receptions (+164): highest listed prop EV at +38.07% with a 52.3% model probability.
Cam Ward Under 0.5 Pass TDs (+160): aligns with the game's low projected total and carries +28.44% EV.
Deshaun Watson Over 1.5 Pass TDs (+153): aggressive plus-money angle with +19.67% EV if Cleveland finishes drives through the air.

Lean: Under 37.5

Injury Report

CLE

Quincy Williams LBQuestionable · Neck
Carson Schwesinger LBQuestionable · Ankle
Grant Delpit SQuestionable · Concussion
Denzel Boston WRQuestionable · Foot
Dylan Sampson RBInjured Reserve · Knee

TEN

Calvin Ridley WRQuestionable · Hip
Dorian Mausi LBInjured Reserve · Foot
Kevin Winston Jr. SQuestionable · Quadriceps
Tony Adams SQuestionable · Ankle
Jackson Slater GInjured Reserve · Foot

Recent Form · Series

CLE

WWWLW

TEN

LLLLW

Game Props

CLE @ TEN · Player Props

59 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Elic Ayomanor TEN WR · vs CLE	Receptions	1.5	2.56	+1.06	+164UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	52.3	37.9	-110	+14.4%	+38.1%	0—
Cam Ward TEN QB · vs CLE	Pass TDs	0.5	0.75	+0.25	-110*DK	+160UD	Under 0.5	49.4	38.5	+102	+10.9%	+28.4%	0—
Deshaun Watson CLE QB · vs TEN	Pass TDs	1.5	1.3	-0.2	+153UD	-110*DK	Over 1.5	47.3	39.5	+111	+7.8%	+19.7%	0—
Gunnar Helm TEN TE · vs CLE	Receptions	1.5	2.75	+1.25	-110*DK	u2.5-164UD	Under 2.5	71.9	62.1	-256	+9.8%	+15.7%	0
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR · vs CLE	Receptions	4.5	4.8	+0.3	+129UD	-110*DK	Over 4.5	50.5	43.7	-102	+6.8%	+15.6%	0
Chimere Dike TEN WR · vs CLE	Anytime TD	1+	0.24	-0.76	+631UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	15.6	13.7	+541	+1.9%	+14.0%	0
Elic Ayomanor TEN WR · vs CLE	Anytime TD	1+	0.25	-0.75	+572UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	16.8	14.9	+495	+1.9%	+12.9%	0—
Jerry Jeudy CLE WR · vs TEN	Receptions	1.5	2.38	+0.88	-110*DK	+133UD	Under 1.5	47.7	42.9	+110	+4.8%	+11.1%	0—
Denzel Boston CLE WR · vs TEN	First TD	1st	10.8%	+2.8pp	+910UD	—	First TD	10.8	9.9	+825	+0.9%	+9.2%	—
KC Concepcion CLE WR · vs TEN	Rec Yds	38.5	34	-4.5	-110*DK	u39.5+100UD	Under 39.5	54.1	50.0	-118	+4.1%	+8.1%	-1
Gunnar Helm TEN TE · vs CLE	Rec Yds	14.5	22.31	+7.81	+103UD	-110*DK	Over 14.5	53.2	49.3	-114	+3.9%	+8.0%	+1
Jerry Jeudy CLE WR · vs TEN	Rec Yds	22.5	29.16	+6.66	o24.5+118UD	-110*DK	Over 24.5	48.7	45.9	+105	+2.9%	+6.2%	0—
Tyjae Spears TEN RB · vs CLE	Receptions	2.5	2.88	+0.38	+106UD	-110*DK	Over 2.5	51.1	48.5	-104	+2.6%	+5.3%	0—
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR · vs CLE	Rec Yds	36.5	45.15	+8.65	o39.5+118UD	-110*DK	Over 39.5	48.3	45.9	+107	+2.4%	+5.3%	+3
Tony Pollard TEN RB · vs CLE	Carries	16.5	14.39	-2.11	-106UD	-110*DK	Under 16.5	54.6	52.4	-120	+2.2%	+4.2%	+1
Deshaun Watson CLE QB · vs TEN	Pass Yds	203.5	198.8	-4.7	-110*DK	u199.5+118UD	Under 199.5	47.7	45.9	+110	+1.9%	+4.0%	+1
Tyjae Spears TEN RB · vs CLE	Rec Yds	12.5	15.62	+3.12	o9.5-148UD	-110*DK	Over 9.5	61.4	59.7	-159	+1.8%	+3.0%	0—
Denzel Boston CLE WR · vs TEN	Receptions	3.5	3.1	-0.4	+116UD	-110*DK	Over 3.5	47.4	46.3	+111	+1.1%	+2.4%	0—
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE TE · vs TEN	Rec Yds	30.5	34.88	+4.38	o24.5-167UD	-110*DK	Over 24.5	63.4	62.5	-174	+0.9%	+1.4%	-1
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE TE · vs TEN	Anytime TD	1+	0.47	-0.53	+207UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	33.0	32.6	+203	+0.4%	+1.3%	0
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE TE · vs TEN	Receptions	3.5	3.7	+0.2	+102UD	-110*DK	Over 3.5	50.1	49.5	-100	+0.6%	+1.2%	0—
Carnell Tate TEN WR · vs CLE	Receptions	4.5	4.7	+0.2	+102UD	-110*DK	Over 4.5	50.1	49.5	-100	+0.6%	+1.2%	0—
Quinshon Judkins CLE RB · vs TEN	Rush Yds	44.5	50.81	+6.31	-110*DK	u49.5-125UD	Under 49.5	56.0	55.6	-127	+0.4%	+0.7%	-1
KC Concepcion CLE WR · vs TEN	Receptions	4.5	4	-0.5	-110*DK	-110*DK	Under 4.5	52.7	52.4	-111	+0.3%	+0.6%	0—
Michael Carter TEN RB · vs CLE	Anytime TD	1+	0.08	-0.92	+1420UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	6.6	6.6	+1415	+0.0%	+0.3%	0
Tyjae Spears TEN RB · vs CLE	Rush Yds	10.5	15.31	+4.81	-110*DK	u9.5+110UD	Over 10.5	52.5	52.4	-111	+0.1%	+0.2%	0—
Quinshon Judkins CLE RB · vs TEN	Receptions	2.5	2.83	+0.33	-110*DK	+103UD	Under 2.5	49.2	49.3	+103	-0.1%	-0.1%	0—
Wan'Dale Robinson TEN WR · vs CLE	First TD	1st	7.6%	+1.4pp	+1210UD	—	First TD	7.6	7.6	+1219	-0.1%	-0.7%	—
Harold Fannin Jr. CLE TE · vs TEN	First TD	1st	12%	+2.2pp	+723UD	—	First TD	12.0	12.2	+731	-0.1%	-0.9%	—
Tony Pollard TEN RB · vs CLE	Rush Yds	66.5	60.36	-6.14	-110*DK	u69.5-129UD	Under 69.5	55.8	56.3	-126	-0.5%	-1.0%	-1
Cam Ward TEN QB · vs CLE	Completions	18.5	18.5	0	-110*DK	-102UD	Under 18.5	50.0	50.5	-100	-0.5%	-1.0%	-1
Cam Ward TEN QB · vs CLE	Anytime TD	1+	0.25	-0.75	+394UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	20.0	20.2	+400	-0.2%	-1.2%	0—
Elic Ayomanor TEN WR · vs CLE	Rec Yds	12.5	32.19	+19.69	-110*DK	u14.5-112UD	Over 12.5	51.7	52.4	-107	-0.7%	-1.3%	0
Cam Ward TEN QB · vs CLE	Pass Yds	182.5	174.36	-8.14	o174.5-148UD	-110*DK	Under 182.5	51.5	52.4	-106	-0.9%	-1.7%	-10
Denzel Boston CLE WR · vs TEN	Rec Yds	50.5	54.7	+4.2	-110*DK	u49.5+103UD	Over 50.5	51.2	52.4	-105	-1.2%	-2.3%	-1
Quinshon Judkins CLE RB · vs TEN	Rec Yds	16.5	16.76	+0.26	o14.5-139UD	-110*DK	Over 14.5	56.8	58.2	-132	-1.4%	-2.3%	0—
Deshaun Watson CLE QB · vs TEN	Rush Yds	29.5	31.4	+1.9	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 29.5	51.1	52.4	-104	-1.3%	-2.5%	+1
Denzel Boston CLE WR · vs TEN	Anytime TD	1+	0.46	-0.54	+186UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	34.1	35.0	+193	-0.9%	-2.5%	0—
Carnell Tate TEN WR · vs CLE	Rec Yds	54.5	56.2	+1.7	o49.5-141UD	-110*DK	Over 49.5	56.9	58.5	-132	-1.6%	-2.8%	-2
Cam Ward TEN QB · vs CLE	Rush Yds	9.5	10.34	+0.84	-110*DK	-110*DK	Over 9.5	50.6	52.4	-102	-1.8%	-3.4%	0

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