Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NFL Terminal

Game 6 of 14

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Sun, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

MIA

Miami Dolphins · 0-5

Model 17.9 · ESPN 34%

Proj total 40.1

NYJ

New York Jets · 2-4

Model 22.2 · ESPN 65.7%

63°F · gusts 6 mph · precip 0%· MetLife Stadium

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

MIA ML

Fair +184 · Model 35.3%

+194

Edge +1.3% · EV +3.8%

Kelly ¼: 0.49% of bankroll ($4.87 of $1000)

NYJ ML

Fair -184 · Model 64.7%

-225

Edge -4.5% · EV -6.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Spread

MIA +4.5

Fair +101 · Model 49.7%

-104

Edge -1.3% · EV -2.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

NYJ -4.5

Fair -101 · Model 50.3%

-110

MGM

Edge -2.1% · EV -4.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 39

Fair -102 · Model 52.1%

-110

MGM

Edge -0.3% · EV -0.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 39.5

Fair +102 · Model 49.4%

-110

CZR

Edge -3.0% · EV -5.7%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	MIA ML	NYJ ML	MIA Spread	NYJ Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	+185	-225	+4.5-105	-4.5-115	o39.5-108	u39.5-112
FanDuel	+194	-235	+4.5-104	-4.5-118	o39.5-106	u39.5-114
BetMGM	+185	-225	+4.5-108	-4.5-110	o39-110	u39-108
Caesars	+185	-225	+4.5-106	-4.5-113	o39.5-109	u39.5-110
bet365	+190	-235	+4.5-108	-4.5-112	o39.5-107	u39.5-113
BetRivers	+180	-235	+4.5-112	-4.5-112	o39.5-108	u39.5-114
Unibet	+185	-227	+4.5-111	-4.5-110	o39.5-106	u39.5-114
Consensus	+185	-234	+4.5-106	-4.5-113	o39.5-105	u39.5-112
Opening Line	+120	-142	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	o41.5-110	u41.5-110

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Jets favored, but Miami price is the edge

The model makes the Jets the better team at home, projecting a 22.2-17.9 win in a low-40s game. But with New York priced at -225 and Miami at +194, the value is on the Dolphins moneyline despite their 0-5 start, while spread and total look close to fair.

Projection is NYJ by 4.3 with a 40.1 total, very close to the market spread of -4.5 and total around 39-39.5.
Moneyline is the clearest market gap: MIA ML +194 carries 35.3% model win probability for +3.78% EV, while NYJ ML -225 is -6.54% EV.
Recent form is poor on both sides: Jets are 1-4 in their last five, Dolphins are 0-5 in their last five.
Jets have the more notable skill-position injury question with Breece Hall listed questionable; Miami’s injury list is longer but mostly questionable tags without a major modeled market move here.
Weather looks neutral at MetLife: 63 degrees, 6 mph gusts, no precipitation, so conditions should not materially suppress scoring beyond the baseline projection.

Props to watch

Malik Willis Under 0.5 Pass TDs (+151): highest listed EV at 33.03% with the model giving it a 53.0% hit rate.
Ollie Gordon II Under 13.5 Carries (+106): 55.5% model probability and 14.33% EV in a game projected for modest scoring.
Malik Washington Under 4.5 Receptions (-159): strong 69.0% model probability with 12.38% EV.

Lean: MIA ML

Injury Report

MIA

Will Kacmarek TEQuestionable · Hamstring
Jaylen Wright RBQuestionable · Foot
Caleb Douglas WRQuestionable · Ankle
Willie Gay Jr. LBQuestionable · Illness
Kyle Louis LBInjured Reserve · Knee

NYJ

Max Mitchell OTQuestionable · Concussion
Kene Nwangwu RBQuestionable · Knee
Adonai Mitchell WRQuestionable · Finger
Breece Hall RBQuestionable · Quadriceps
Kiko Mauigoa LBDoubtful · Quadriceps

Recent Form · Series

MIA

LLLLL

NYJ

LLLWL

Game Props

MIA @ NYJ · Player Props

53 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Malik Willis MIA QB · vs NYJ	Pass TDs	0.5	0.44	-0.06	-110*DK	+151UD	Under 0.5	53.0	39.8	-113	+13.2%	+33.0%	0—
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB · vs NYJ	Carries	13.5	11.22	-2.28	-110*DK	+106UD	Under 13.5	55.5	48.5	-125	+7.0%	+14.3%	0
Greg Dulcich MIA TE · vs NYJ	Receptions	2.5	2.6	+0.1	+129UD	-110*DK	Over 2.5	49.6	43.7	+102	+5.9%	+13.6%	0—
Malik Washington MIA WR · vs NYJ	Receptions	3.5	3.76	+0.26	-110*DK	u4.5-159UD	Under 4.5	69.0	61.4	-222	+7.6%	+12.4%	-1
Mason Taylor NYJ TE · vs MIA	Receptions	2.5	2.82	+0.32	-110*DK	+126UD	Under 2.5	49.3	44.2	+103	+5.0%	+11.4%	0
Kenyon Sadiq NYJ TE · vs MIA	Receptions	2.5	2.5	0	+120UD	-110*DK	Over 2.5	49.1	45.5	+104	+3.6%	+8.0%	0—
Malik Willis MIA QB · vs NYJ	First TD	1st	7.1%	+1.8pp	+1410UD	—	First TD	7.1	6.6	+1314	+0.5%	+6.8%	—
Malik Willis MIA QB · vs NYJ	Anytime TD	1+	0.32	-0.68	+360UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	22.9	21.7	+337	+1.2%	+5.3%	0
Kenyon Sadiq NYJ TE · vs MIA	First TD	1st	6.5%	+1.6pp	+1510UD	—	First TD	6.5	6.2	+1430	+0.3%	+5.2%	—
Malik Washington MIA WR · vs NYJ	Rec Yds	39.5	37.4	-2.1	-110*DK	+104UD	Under 39.5	50.9	49.0	-104	+1.9%	+3.8%	-1
Mason Taylor NYJ TE · vs MIA	Rec Yds	20.5	21.07	+0.57	-110*DK	u24.5-154UD	Under 24.5	62.7	60.6	-168	+2.1%	+3.5%	-3
Malik Willis MIA QB · vs NYJ	Completions	16.5	15.44	-1.06	-110*DK	-106UD	Under 16.5	52.8	51.5	-112	+1.3%	+2.6%	0—
Geno Smith NYJ QB · vs MIA	Pass Yds	220.5	214.27	-6.23	-110*DK	u224.5-110UD	Under 224.5	53.7	52.4	-116	+1.4%	+2.6%	-3
Greg Dulcich MIA TE · vs NYJ	Rec Yds	20.5	29	+8.5	-110*DK	u24.5-137UD	Over 20.5	53.6	52.4	-116	+1.2%	+2.3%	0
Geno Smith NYJ QB · vs MIA	Pass TDs	1.5	1.21	-0.29	+106UD	-110*DK	Under 1.5	53.4	52.4	-115	+1.0%	+1.9%	0—
Jaylen Wright MIA RB · vs NYJ	First TD	1st	4.1%	+0.9pp	+2410UD	—	First TD	4.1	4.0	+2367	+0.1%	+1.8%	—
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB · vs NYJ	Receptions	1.5	1.22	-0.28	+102UD	-110*DK	Under 1.5	53.2	52.4	-114	+0.8%	+1.6%	0—
Omar Cooper Jr. NYJ WR · vs MIA	Anytime TD	1+	0.35	-0.65	+298UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	25.5	25.1	+292	+0.4%	+1.5%	0—
Jaylen Wright MIA RB · vs NYJ	Rush Yds	14.5	28.8	+14.3	-110*DK	+103UD	Over 14.5	52.6	52.4	-111	+0.2%	+0.4%	-1
Malik Willis MIA QB · vs NYJ	Carries	6.5	5.89	-0.61	-108UD	-110*DK	Under 6.5	52.6	52.4	-111	+0.2%	+0.4%	0—
Caleb Douglas MIA WR · vs NYJ	Rec Yds	35.5	42.5	+7	-110*DK	u39.5-132UD	Over 35.5	52.5	52.4	-111	+0.1%	+0.2%	-3
Geno Smith NYJ QB · vs MIA	Completions	21.5	20.25	-1.25	-104UD	-110*DK	Under 21.5	52.5	52.4	-111	+0.1%	+0.2%	+1
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR · vs MIA	Receptions	5.5	5.56	+0.06	+102UD	-110*DK	Over 5.5	49.6	49.5	+102	+0.1%	+0.2%	0—
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB · vs NYJ	Anytime TD	1+	0.52	-0.48	+177UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	36.0	36.1	+178	-0.1%	-0.3%	0—
Malik Willis MIA QB · vs NYJ	Rush Yds	29.5	33.78	+4.28	-110*DK	+103UD	Over 29.5	52.2	52.4	-109	-0.2%	-0.3%	-1
Kenyon Sadiq NYJ TE · vs MIA	Rec Yds	21.5	24.4	+2.9	-110*DK	u24.5-139UD	Over 21.5	51.8	52.4	-107	-0.6%	-1.1%	0
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB · vs NYJ	Rec Yds	7.5	4.89	-2.61	o9.5+136UD	-110*DK	Under 7.5	51.8	52.4	-107	-0.6%	-1.1%	+1
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB · vs NYJ	Rush Yds	52.5	49.56	-2.94	o49.5-121UD	-110*DK	Over 49.5	54.0	54.8	-117	-0.7%	-1.3%	+3
Malik Willis MIA QB · vs NYJ	Pass Yds	182.5	175.44	-7.06	o174.5-145UD	-110*DK	Under 182.5	51.3	52.4	-105	-1.1%	-2.1%	+1
Kenyon Sadiq NYJ TE · vs MIA	Anytime TD	1+	0.31	-0.69	+298UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	24.5	25.1	+308	-0.6%	-2.5%	0
Caleb Douglas MIA WR · vs NYJ	Receptions	2.5	2.83	+0.33	-110*DK	-105UD	Over 2.5	50.8	52.4	-103	-1.6%	-3.0%	0—
Geno Smith NYJ QB · vs MIA	Rush Yds	6.5	7.11	+0.61	-110*DK	u4.5+125UD	Under 4.5	43.0	44.4	+132	-1.4%	-3.2%	0—
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR · vs MIA	Rec Yds	62.5	64.37	+1.87	o59.5-125UD	-110*DK	Over 59.5	53.8	55.6	-116	-1.8%	-3.2%	+4
Jaylen Wright MIA RB · vs NYJ	Anytime TD	1+	0.2	-0.8	+443UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	17.5	18.4	+471	-0.9%	-5.0%	0—
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR · vs MIA	Anytime TD	1+	0.53	-0.47	+130UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	40.8	43.5	+145	-2.7%	-6.2%	0—
Ollie Gordon II MIA RB · vs NYJ	First TD	1st	13.4%	+2pp	+594UD	—	First TD	13.4	14.4	+645	-1.0%	-6.8%	—
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR · vs MIA	First TD	1st	12%	+1.7pp	+666UD	—	First TD	12.0	13.1	+732	-1.0%	-8.0%	—
Braelon Allen NYJ RB · vs MIA	Anytime TD	1+	0.51	-0.49	-134UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	48.7	57.3	+105	-8.6%	-15.0%	0—
Caleb Douglas MIA WR · vs NYJ	Anytime TD	1+	0.16	-0.84	+329UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	19.4	23.3	+415	-3.9%	-16.8%	0—
Breece Hall NYJ RB · vs MIA	Anytime TD	1+	0.32	-0.68	+103UD	—	1+ Anytime TD	40.0	49.3	+150	-9.3%	-18.8%	0

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