Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NHL Terminal

Game 12 of 15

PrevBUF @ SJ

NextCGY @ EDM

Wed, Oct 28 · 6:30 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 8 feeds

PHI

Philadelphia Flyers · 3-7-3

Model 2.5

Proj total 5.8

WSH

Washington Capitals · 6-4-0

Model 3.3

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Capital One Arena

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

PHI ML

Fair +188 · Model 34.7%

+195

MGM

Edge +0.8% · EV +2.4%

Kelly ¼: 0.30% of bankroll ($3.03 of $1000)

WSH ML

Fair -188 · Model 65.3%

-230

Edge -4.4% · EV -6.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Puck Line

PHI +1.5

Fair -130 · Model 56.5%

-120

Edge +1.9% · EV +3.6%

Kelly ¼: 1.07% of bankroll ($10.75 of $1000)

WSH -1.5

Fair +130 · Model 43.5%

+105

MGM

Edge -5.3% · EV -10.8%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 6

Fair -123 · Model 46.4%

+108

UNI

Edge -1.7% · EV -3.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 6

Fair +123 · Model 53.6%

-110

MGM

Edge +1.3% · EV +2.4%

Kelly ¼: 0.64% of bankroll ($6.40 of $1000)

Line shopping · every book

Book	PHI ML	WSH ML	PHI Puck Line	WSH Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	+190	-230	+1.5-120	-1.5+100	o5.5-135	u5.5+114
FanDuel	+190	-235	+1.5-122	-1.5-100	o5.5-134	u5.5+110
BetMGM	+195	-235	+1.5-125	-1.5+105	o6-110	u6-110
Caesars	+194	-235	—	—	o6-108	u6-114
bet365	+185	-230	+1.5-122	-1.5+102	o5.5-136	u5.5+116
Unibet	+185	-238	+1.5-128	-1.5+104	o6+108	u6-133
Consensus	+190	-234	+1.5-123	-1.5+103	o5.5-135	u5.5+115
Opening Line	+140	-167	+1.5-192	-1.5+155	o6.5+105	u6.5-125

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Capitals favored, but puck line looks tight

Washington projects as the better side at 3.3-2.5, but the market appears to price that edge aggressively on the moneyline. The cleaner value from this board is on Philadelphia to stay within a goal and a half, with the total also shading slightly under a flat 6.

Model projects Washington by 0.8 goals with a 5.8 total, close to fair prices of WSH -1.0 and total 6.0.
Moneyline value is not on the favorite: WSH ML carries -6.31% EV, while PHI ML shows a small +2.36% EV despite just a 34.7% model win probability.
Best spread edge is PHI +1.5 at -120 with 56.5% model probability and +3.58% EV; WSH -1.5 is priced too high at -10.83% EV.
Total leans under: Under 6 is 53.6% by the model for +2.41% EV, while Over 6 sits at negative EV.
Philadelphia is missing Owen Tippett and Travis Konecny, while Washington has multiple IR absences as well, including Logan Thompson and Rasmus Sandin.

Lean: PHI +1.5

Injury Report

PHI

Rasmus Ristolainen DInjured Reserve · Hand
Owen Tippett RWInjured Reserve · Upper Body
Travis Konecny RWInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Nikita Grebenkin RWInjured Reserve · Back

WSH

Logan Thompson GInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Vincent Desharnais DInjured Reserve · Abdomen
Rasmus Sandin DInjured Reserve · Knee
Patrick Thomas CInjured Reserve · Upper Body

Recent Form · Series

PHI

LWWWL

WSH

LWWLW

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/28

Game Props

PHI @ WSH · Player Props

0 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Status	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move	Slip
No player props posted for this slate yet. Books usually post them on game day, so check back closer to start time.

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