Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NHL Terminal

Game 11 of 15

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Tue, Oct 27 · 9:30 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

BUF

Buffalo Sabres · 4-4-3

Model 3.4

Proj total 6.7

San Jose Sharks · 6-5-1

Model 3.3

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· SAP Center at San Jose

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

BUF ML

Fair -119 · Model 54.3%

-139

CZR

Edge -3.9% · EV -6.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

SJ ML

Fair +119 · Model 45.7%

+123

Edge +0.9% · EV +1.9%

Kelly ¼: 0.39% of bankroll ($3.88 of $1000)

Puck Line

BUF -1.5

Fair +209 · Model 32.4%

+165

Edge -5.3% · EV -14.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

SJ +1.5

Fair -209 · Model 67.6%

-185

UNI

Edge +2.7% · EV +4.1%

Kelly ¼: 1.91% of bankroll ($19.15 of $1000)

Total

Over 6.5

Fair -114 · Model 53.4%

+102

UNI

Edge +3.9% · EV +7.9%

Kelly ¼: 1.93% of bankroll ($19.28 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair +114 · Model 46.6%

+106

Edge -1.9% · EV -4.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	BUF ML	SJ ML	BUF Puck Line	SJ Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	-142	+120	-1.5+164	+1.5-198	o6.5-125	u6.5+105
FanDuel	-146	+122	-1.5+152	+1.5-188	o6.5-130	u6.5+106
BetMGM	-145	+120	-1.5+155	+1.5-190	o6.5-125	u6.5+105
Caesars	-139	+119	—	—	o6.5-122	u6.5+100
bet365	-144	+122	-1.5+164	+1.5-198	o6.5-126	u6.5+106
BetRivers	-148	+123	-1.5+165	+1.5-215	o6.5-127	u6.5+102
Unibet	-147	+122	-1.5+155	+1.5-185	o6.5+102	u6.5-125
Consensus	-145	+121	-1.5+159	+1.5-194	o6.5-125	u6.5+105
Opening Line	-111	-111	-1.5+225	+1.5-286	o6.5-116	u6.5-105

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Model sees coin-flip with goals

The projection is essentially even, with Buffalo favored by just 0.1 goals and a 3.4-3.3 expected scoreline. That makes San Jose's plus money and the over 6.5 the clearest model-aligned angles, especially with both teams entering on shaky recent form.

Projection is nearly dead even: BUF 3.4, SJ 3.3 with Buffalo winning 54.3% of simulations.
Best moneyline value is SJ ML +123, with 45.7% model win probability and +1.91% EV.
Total leans high: projected 6.7 goals vs fair total 6.5; Over 6.5 at +102 carries +7.87% EV.
Puckline value also favors the home side staying close: SJ +1.5 has 67.6% model probability and +4.14% EV.
Recent form is soft on both sides: San Jose is 2-3 in its last five, while Buffalo is 1-3-1.

Props to watch

Jason Zucker 1+ Goals (+299): model gives him a 28.9% chance, good for +15.31% EV.
Mattias Samuelsson Over 0.5 Points (+209): 35.9% model probability creates +10.93% EV.
Rasmus Dahlin Under 0.5 Assists (+111): model probability sits at 51.5% for +8.67% EV.

Lean: Over 6.5

Injury Report

BUF

Jiri Kulich COut · Concussion
Justin Danforth RWDay-To-Day · Upper Body
Sam Carrick CInjured Reserve · Upper Body
Alex Lyon GInjured Reserve · Upper Body
Matt Grzelcyk DInjured Reserve · Lower Body

Igor Chernyshov LWOut · Upper Body
Alexander Wennberg COut · Upper Body
Quentin Musty LWInjured Reserve · Upper Body
Kyle Keyser GInjured Reserve · Upper Body

Recent Form · Series

BUF

LWLLL

LLWWL

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/27

Game Props

BUF @ SJ · Player Props

120 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Nolan Allan SJ D · vs BUF	Goals	1+	0.13	-0.87	+1700DK	—	1+ Goals	6.7	5.6	+1393	+1.1%	+20.6%	-0.3pp
Jason Zucker BUF LW · vs SJ	Goals	1+	0.4	-0.6	+299UD	—	1+ Goals	28.9	25.1	+246	+3.8%	+15.3%	+1.2pp
Mattias Samuelsson BUF D · vs SJ	Goals	1+	0.17	-0.83	+850DK	—	1+ Goals	12.0	10.5	+733	+1.5%	+14.0%	0
Mattias Samuelsson BUF D · vs SJ	Points	0.5	0.57	+0.07	+209UD	-264UD	Over 0.5	35.9	32.4	+179	+3.5%	+10.9%	-0.1pp
Jacob Trouba SJ D · vs BUF	Goals	1+	0.14	-0.86	+950DK	—	1+ Goals	10.4	9.5	+862	+0.9%	+9.2%	0
Rasmus Dahlin BUF D · vs SJ	Assists	0.5	0.6	+0.1	-120DK	+111UD	Under 0.5	51.5	47.4	-106	+4.1%	+8.7%	+0.5pp
Tyler Toffoli SJ C · vs BUF	Assists	0.5	0.4	-0.1	+238UD	-265DK	Over 0.5	32.1	29.6	+212	+2.5%	+8.5%	0—
Will Smith SJ C · vs BUF	Assists	0.5	0.43	-0.07	+130DK	-132UD	Under 0.5	61.5	56.9	-160	+4.6%	+8.1%	+0.5pp
Macklin Celebrini SJ C · vs BUF	Assists	0.5	0.91	+0.41	-135DK	+142UD	Under 0.5	44.6	41.3	+124	+3.3%	+7.9%	+3.5pp
Tage Thompson BUF C · vs SJ	Assists	0.5	0.45	-0.05	+115DK	-125UD	Under 0.5	59.2	55.6	-145	+3.6%	+6.6%	+2.0pp
Jack Quinn BUF RW · vs SJ	Goals	1+	0.37	-0.63	+238UD	—	1+ Goals	31.5	29.6	+217	+1.9%	+6.5%	+1.6pp
Adam Gaudette SJ RW · vs BUF	Goals	1+	0.24	-0.76	+500DK	—	1+ Goals	17.6	16.7	+468	+0.9%	+5.6%	0
Mattias Samuelsson BUF D · vs SJ	Assists	0.5	0.4	-0.1	+275UD	-358UD	Over 0.5	28.1	26.7	+256	+1.4%	+5.4%	0
Jacob Trouba SJ D · vs BUF	Assists	0.5	0.39	-0.11	+228UD	-270DK	Over 0.5	32.0	30.5	+212	+1.5%	+5.0%	+1.5pp
Ivar Stenberg SJ LW · vs BUF	Points	0.5	0.61	+0.11	-135DK	+110UD	Under 0.5	49.2	47.6	+103	+1.6%	+3.3%	+6.9pp
Tyler Toffoli SJ C · vs BUF	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.21	+0.71	-129UD	+110DK	Over 1.5	57.8	56.3	-137	+1.5%	+2.6%	-1.2pp
Olen Zellweger BUF D · vs SJ	Goals	1+	0.14	-0.86	+850DK	—	1+ Goals	10.8	10.5	+826	+0.3%	+2.6%	0
Noah Ostlund BUF C · vs SJ	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.5	0	-129UD	+105UD	Under 1.5	49.8	48.8	+101	+1.0%	+2.1%	+1.0pp
Jacob Trouba SJ D · vs BUF	Points	0.5	0.54	+0.04	+164UD	-200UD	Over 0.5	38.4	37.9	+160	+0.5%	+1.4%	+1.4pp
Zach Benson BUF LW · vs SJ	Shots on Goal	2.5	1.84	-0.66	+135UD	-167UD	Under 2.5	63.3	62.5	-172	+0.8%	+1.2%	-2.0pp
Josh Norris BUF C · vs SJ	Assists	0.5	0.31	-0.19	+296UD	-400DK	Over 0.5	25.5	25.3	+292	+0.3%	+1.0%	+0.7pp
Jason Zucker BUF LW · vs SJ	Shots on Goal	1.5	2	+0.5	-112UD	-112UD	Over 1.5	53.3	52.8	-114	+0.5%	+0.9%	-0.5pp
Jason Zucker BUF LW · vs SJ	First Goal	1st	5.1%	+0.7pp	+1860UD	—	First Goal	5.1	5.1	+1844	+0.0%	+0.8%	—
Macklin Celebrini SJ C · vs BUF	Shots on Goal	3.5	3.7	+0.2	+109UD	-134UD	Over 3.5	48.0	47.8	+108	+0.1%	+0.3%	+1
Tyler Toffoli SJ C · vs BUF	Goals	1+	0.28	-0.72	+360DK	—	1+ Goals	21.8	21.7	+359	+0.1%	+0.3%	-2.1pp
Jason Zucker BUF LW · vs SJ	Points	0.5	0.7	+0.2	+116UD	-141UD	Over 0.5	46.4	46.3	+116	+0.1%	+0.2%	0—
Josh Doan BUF RW · vs SJ	Points	0.5	0.48	-0.02	+109UD	-134UD	Under 0.5	57.3	57.3	-134	+0.0%	+0.1%	-0.4pp
Josh Doan BUF RW · vs SJ	Assists	0.5	0.23	-0.27	+218UD	-278UD	Under 0.5	73.5	73.5	-277	-0.0%	-0.1%	0—
Noah Ostlund BUF C · vs SJ	Points	0.5	0.57	+0.07	-105DK	-118UD	Under 0.5	53.9	54.1	-117	-0.2%	-0.4%	-1.0pp
Dmitry Orlov SJ D · vs BUF	Points	0.5	0.44	-0.06	+124UD	-154UD	Under 0.5	60.2	60.6	-151	-0.4%	-0.7%	-0.8pp
Mason Marchment SJ LW · vs BUF	Assists	0.5	0.25	-0.25	+211UD	-245DK	Under 0.5	70.5	71.0	-239	-0.5%	-0.7%	+1.1pp
Will Smith SJ C · vs BUF	Points	0.5	0.77	+0.27	-154UD	+124UD	Under 0.5	44.2	44.6	+126	-0.4%	-1.0%	-0.6pp
Kiefer Sherwood SJ LW · vs BUF	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.1	+0.6	-136UD	+111UD	Over 1.5	57.0	57.6	-133	-0.6%	-1.1%	0
Collin Graf SJ RW · vs BUF	Assists	0.5	0.21	-0.29	+210DK	-295DK	Under 0.5	73.8	74.7	-282	-0.9%	-1.2%	0—
Noah Ostlund BUF C · vs SJ	Assists	0.5	0.35	-0.15	+175DK	-218UD	Under 0.5	67.7	68.6	-210	-0.8%	-1.2%	-1.3pp
Darnell Nurse SJ D · vs BUF	Assists	0.5	0.16	-0.34	+275DK	-390DK	Under 0.5	78.6	79.6	-367	-1.0%	-1.3%	0—
Collin Graf SJ RW · vs BUF	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.44	-0.06	+116UD	-130DK	Over 1.5	45.7	46.3	+119	-0.6%	-1.3%	+1.0pp
Josh Doan BUF RW · vs SJ	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.81	+0.31	-109UD	-113UD	Over 1.5	51.4	52.2	-106	-0.8%	-1.4%	-2.0pp
Macklin Celebrini SJ C · vs BUF	Goals	1+	0.53	-0.47	+131UD	—	1+ Goals	42.6	43.3	+135	-0.7%	-1.6%	-1.1pp
Ivar Stenberg SJ LW · vs BUF	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.5	0	-107UD	-105DK	Under 1.5	50.4	51.2	-102	-0.8%	-1.6%	-2.0pp

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