Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

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Game 2 of 15

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Tue, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

BOS

Boston Bruins · 9-2-1

Model 3.1

Proj total 6.5

CAR

Carolina Hurricanes · 9-2-2

Model 3.4

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Lenovo Center

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

BOS ML

Fair +147 · Model 40.5%

+162

365

Edge +2.3% · EV +6.1%

Kelly ¼: 0.94% of bankroll ($9.43 of $1000)

CAR ML

Fair -147 · Model 59.5%

-185

UNI

Edge -5.4% · EV -8.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Puck Line

BOS +1.5

Fair -173 · Model 63.3%

-152

Edge +3.0% · EV +4.9%

Kelly ¼: 1.88% of bankroll ($18.79 of $1000)

CAR -1.5

Fair +173 · Model 36.7%

+138

Edge -5.3% · EV -12.7%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 6

Fair +106 · Model 57.4%

-105

UNI

Edge +6.2% · EV +12.1%

Kelly ¼: 3.17% of bankroll ($31.67 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair -106 · Model 51.4%

-122

Edge -3.5% · EV -6.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	BOS ML	CAR ML	BOS Puck Line	CAR Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	+160	-192	+1.5-155	-1.5+130	o6.5+102	u6.5-122
FanDuel	+158	-192	+1.5-152	-1.5+124	o6.5+102	u6.5-124
BetMGM	+155	-190	+1.5-155	-1.5+125	o6-120	u6+100
Caesars	+155	-190	—	—	o6-125	u6+102
bet365	+162	-194	+1.5-154	-1.5+129	o6.5+103	u6.5-123
BetRivers	+155	-186	+1.5-175	-1.5+138	o6.5+104	u6.5-127
Unibet	+150	-185	+1.5-154	-1.5+130	o6-105	u6-114
Consensus	+159	-192	+1.5-155	-1.5+127	o6.5+102	u6.5-122
Opening Line	+130	-156	+1.5-200	-1.5+165	o6.5-116	u6.5-105

Game Props

BOS @ CAR · Player Props

124 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Will Borgen BOS D · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.11	-0.89	+2500DK	—	1+ Goals	4.7	3.8	+2028	+0.8%	+22.2%	-0.5pp
Matthew Poitras BOS C · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.27	-0.73	+700DK	—	1+ Goals	15.2	12.5	+558	+2.7%	+21.6%	+1.4pp
Mark Kastelic BOS C · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.16	-0.84	+1100DK	—	1+ Goals	10.1	8.3	+890	+1.8%	+21.2%	+0.6pp
Juuso Valimaki CAR D · vs BOS	Goals	1+	0.1	-0.9	+1600DK	—	1+ Goals	7.0	5.9	+1329	+1.1%	+19.0%	+0.9pp
Marat Khusnutdinov BOS C · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.22	-0.78	+700DK	—	1+ Goals	14.5	12.5	+590	+2.0%	+16.0%	-0.8pp
Pavel Zacha BOS C · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.3	-0.7	+354UD	—	1+ Goals	25.0	22.0	+300	+3.0%	+13.5%	+3.1pp
JJ Peterka BOS RW · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.32	-0.68	+338UD	—	1+ Goals	25.7	22.8	+289	+2.9%	+12.6%	+2.3pp
Elias Lindholm BOS C · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.29	-0.71	+351UD	—	1+ Goals	24.5	22.2	+308	+2.3%	+10.5%	+1.6pp
Mason Lohrei BOS D · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.13	-0.87	+1100DK	—	1+ Goals	9.2	8.3	+987	+0.9%	+10.4%	-1.2pp
Casey Mittelstadt BOS C · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.27	-0.73	+500DK	—	1+ Goals	18.3	16.7	+446	+1.6%	+9.8%	+2.4pp
Elias Lindholm BOS C · vs CAR	Assists	0.5	0.47	-0.03	+254UD	-334UD	Over 0.5	30.9	28.2	+224	+2.6%	+9.4%	+0.8pp
James Hagens BOS C · vs CAR	Assists	0.5	0.46	-0.04	+265UD	-345UD	Over 0.5	29.9	27.4	+234	+2.5%	+9.1%	+0.6pp
Jeremy Swayman BOS G · vs CAR	Saves	29.5	25.75	-3.75	-105UD	-118UD	Under 29.5	58.5	54.1	-141	+4.4%	+8.1%	+1.0pp
Sebastian Aho CAR C · vs BOS	Assists	0.5	0.75	+0.25	+116UD	-135DK	Over 0.5	48.8	46.3	+105	+2.5%	+5.4%	+1.0pp
Seth Jarvis CAR C · vs BOS	Goals	1+	0.46	-0.54	+227UD	—	1+ Goals	32.1	30.6	+212	+1.5%	+5.0%	+1.0pp
Elias Lindholm BOS C · vs CAR	Points	0.5	0.76	+0.26	+122UD	-150UD	Over 0.5	46.8	45.0	+114	+1.8%	+3.9%	+1.1pp
Casey Mittelstadt BOS C · vs CAR	Points	0.5	0.59	+0.09	+175DK	-245DK	Over 0.5	37.6	36.4	+166	+1.2%	+3.4%	+1.6pp
Seth Jarvis CAR C · vs BOS	Shots on Goal	2.5	3.14	+0.64	+100DK	-124UD	Over 2.5	51.5	50.0	-106	+1.5%	+3.0%	+4.0pp
Taylor Hall CAR LW · vs BOS	Points	0.5	0.61	+0.11	+141UD	-175DK	Over 0.5	42.7	41.5	+134	+1.2%	+2.9%	-0.3pp
David Pastrnak BOS RW · vs CAR	Shots on Goal	2.5	3.44	+0.94	-129UD	+105UD	Over 2.5	57.8	56.3	-137	+1.5%	+2.6%	0
Fraser Minten BOS C · vs CAR	Points	0.5	0.61	+0.11	+146UD	-179UD	Over 0.5	41.7	40.7	+140	+1.1%	+2.6%	+3.1pp
Charlie McAvoy BOS D · vs CAR	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.58	+0.08	+131UD	-160DK	Over 1.5	44.4	43.3	+125	+1.1%	+2.6%	+1.7pp
Morgan Geekie BOS C · vs CAR	Assists	0.5	0.5	0	+195UD	-244UD	Over 0.5	34.7	33.9	+188	+0.8%	+2.4%	+1.6pp
Jaccob Slavin CAR D · vs BOS	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.76	+0.26	+125DK	-145UD	Over 1.5	45.4	44.4	+120	+1.0%	+2.1%	+0.3pp
Fraser Minten BOS C · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.3	-0.7	+346UD	—	1+ Goals	22.9	22.4	+337	+0.5%	+2.1%	+2.7pp
Logan Stankoven CAR C · vs BOS	Goals	1+	0.42	-0.58	+238UD	—	1+ Goals	30.2	29.6	+231	+0.6%	+2.1%	-1.9pp
James Hagens BOS C · vs CAR	Points	0.5	0.61	+0.11	+150UD	-186UD	Over 0.5	40.8	40.0	+145	+0.8%	+2.0%	0—
Casey Mittelstadt BOS C · vs CAR	Assists	0.5	0.32	-0.18	+314UD	-435UD	Over 0.5	24.6	24.2	+307	+0.5%	+1.8%	0
Morgan Geekie BOS C · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.3	-0.7	+287UD	—	1+ Goals	26.3	25.8	+280	+0.5%	+1.8%	-1.7pp
James Hagens BOS C · vs CAR	First Goal	1st	3.7%	+0.5pp	+2660UD	—	First Goal	3.7	3.6	+2622	+0.1%	+1.4%	—
Elias Lindholm BOS C · vs CAR	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.73	+0.23	+116UD	-141UD	Over 1.5	46.9	46.3	+113	+0.6%	+1.3%	+0.9pp
Fraser Minten BOS C · vs CAR	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.93	+0.43	-112UD	-110DK	Over 1.5	53.3	52.8	-114	+0.5%	+0.9%	+2.5pp
Seth Jarvis CAR C · vs BOS	Assists	0.5	0.54	+0.04	+166UD	-209UD	Over 0.5	37.9	37.6	+164	+0.3%	+0.8%	-0.8pp
Frederic Brunet BOS D · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.08	-0.92	+1300DK	—	1+ Goals	7.2	7.1	+1289	+0.1%	+0.8%	-1.2pp
Sean Walker CAR D · vs BOS	Assists	0.5	0.36	-0.14	+262UD	-345UD	Over 0.5	27.8	27.6	+260	+0.2%	+0.6%	+0.7pp
Charlie McAvoy BOS D · vs CAR	Assists	0.5	0.76	+0.26	+107UD	-130UD	Over 0.5	48.6	48.3	+106	+0.3%	+0.6%	0
David Pastrnak BOS RW · vs CAR	Assists	0.5	0.88	+0.38	-109UD	-113UD	Over 0.5	52.4	52.2	-110	+0.3%	+0.5%	0
JJ Peterka BOS RW · vs CAR	Assists	0.5	0.33	-0.17	+180DK	-213UD	Under 0.5	68.3	68.1	-215	+0.3%	+0.4%	-1.8pp
David Pastrnak BOS RW · vs CAR	Goals	1+	0.47	-0.53	+201UD	—	1+ Goals	33.3	33.2	+200	+0.1%	+0.2%	-1.8pp
Pyotr Kochetkov CAR G · vs BOS	Saves	19.5	19	-0.5	-124UD	+100UD	Under 19.5	50.1	50.0	-100	+0.1%	+0.2%	+1.0pp

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