Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

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Game 9 of 15

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Tue, Oct 27 · 9:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

OTT

Ottawa Senators · 8-4-0

Model 3

Proj total 6.3

VGK

Vegas Golden Knights · 8-4-1

Model 3.3

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· T-Mobile Arena

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

OTT ML

Fair +135 · Model 42.6%

+136

Edge +0.2% · EV +0.5%

Kelly ¼: 0.10% of bankroll ($0.99 of $1000)

VGK ML

Fair -135 · Model 57.4%

-154

CZR

Edge -3.2% · EV -5.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Puck Line

OTT +1.5

Fair -194 · Model 66.0%

-178

Edge +2.0% · EV +3.1%

Kelly ¼: 1.37% of bankroll ($13.70 of $1000)

VGK -1.5

Fair +194 · Model 34.0%

+160

Edge -4.5% · EV -11.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 6

Fair +104 · Model 57.8%

-125

UNI

Edge +2.3% · EV +4.1%

Kelly ¼: 1.26% of bankroll ($12.62 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair -104 · Model 51.0%

-105

Edge -0.2% · EV -0.4%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	OTT ML	VGK ML	OTT Puck Line	VGK Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	+136	-162	+1.5-192	-1.5+160	o6.5-115	u6.5-105
FanDuel	+132	-160	+1.5-178	-1.5+144	o6.5-115	u6.5-105
BetMGM	+135	-160	+1.5-180	-1.5+145	o6.5-110	u6.5-110
Caesars	+131	-154	—	—	o6.5-114	u6.5-108
bet365	+136	-161	+1.5-181	-1.5+151	o6.5-113	u6.5-107
BetRivers	+135	-162	+1.5-190	-1.5+155	o6.5-103	u6.5-122
Unibet	+127	-154	+1.5-185	-1.5+150	o6-125	u6+104
Consensus	+135	-160	+1.5-180	-1.5+148	o6.5-111	u6.5-108
Opening Line	+125	-152	+1.5-213	-1.5+175	o6.5+110	u6.5-132

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Slight Vegas edge, tighter value on Ottawa side

The projection is close, with Vegas favored by just 0.3 goals in a game lined for 6.3 total goals. Market value is limited on the favorite, while Ottawa carries small moneyline value and the stronger spread angle if this stays within one goal.

Model projects VGK 3.3 to OTT 3.0, with a fair home spread of just -0.5 and fair total of 6.5.
Vegas moneyline is overpriced relative to the model: VGK ML -154 has -5.33% EV despite a 57.4% win probability.
Ottawa shows positive value on both underdog markets: OTT ML +136 has +0.54% EV, and OTT +1.5 -178 has +3.08% EV with a 66.0% cover probability.
Total leans up slightly: Over 6 at -125 carries +4.12% EV with the model at 57.8% to clear six goals.
Injuries are heavier on Ottawa, with Thomas Chabot out and Linus Ullmark on IR, while Vegas lists only Parker Wotherspoon on IR; recent form also favors Ottawa slightly after VGK dropped three straight before this spot.

Props to watch

Drake Batherson 1+ Goals (+218): model gives 33.8% for a strong +7.48% EV.
Jake Sanderson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-105): 54.1% model probability and +5.62% EV.
Noah Hanifin 1+ Goals (+1400): longshot prop with 7.2% model probability and +8.0% EV.

Lean: OTT +1.5

Injury Report

OTT

Thomas Chabot DOut · Upper Body
Linus Ullmark GInjured Reserve · Lower Body
William Eklund LWInjured Reserve · Ankle

VGK

Parker Wotherspoon DInjured Reserve · Upper Body

Recent Form · Series

OTT

WLWLW

VGK

WWLLL

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/27

Game Props

OTT @ VGK · Player Props

112 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Noah Hanifin VGK D · vs OTT	Goals	1+	0.09	-0.91	+1400DK	—	1+ Goals	7.2	6.7	+1289	+0.5%	+8.0%	-0.5pp
Drake Batherson OTT RW · vs VGK	Goals	1+	0.49	-0.51	+218UD	—	1+ Goals	33.8	31.4	+196	+2.4%	+7.5%	+1.1pp
Jake Sanderson OTT D · vs VGK	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.15	+0.65	-105UD	-115DK	Over 1.5	54.1	51.2	-118	+2.9%	+5.6%	-0.5pp
Rasmus Andersson VGK D · vs OTT	Goals	1+	0.18	-0.82	+650DK	—	1+ Goals	14.0	13.3	+614	+0.7%	+5.0%	0
Braeden Bowman VGK RW · vs OTT	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.24	-0.26	+110DK	-132UD	Under 1.5	58.9	56.9	-143	+2.0%	+3.5%	-1.9pp
Jake Sanderson OTT D · vs VGK	Goals	1+	0.22	-0.78	+477UD	—	1+ Goals	17.9	17.3	+459	+0.6%	+3.3%	+0.8pp
Ivan Barbashev VGK LW · vs OTT	Assists	0.5	0.53	+0.03	+181UD	-228UD	Over 0.5	36.6	35.6	+173	+1.0%	+2.9%	-2.0pp
Tim Stutzle OTT C · vs VGK	Goals	1+	0.53	-0.47	+190DK	—	1+ Goals	35.4	34.5	+182	+0.9%	+2.7%	-1.2pp
Mark Stone VGK RW · vs OTT	Goals	1+	0.54	-0.46	+181UD	—	1+ Goals	36.2	35.6	+176	+0.6%	+1.7%	-1.3pp
Shane Pinto OTT C · vs VGK	Assists	0.5	0.36	-0.14	+271UD	-358UD	Over 0.5	27.4	27.0	+265	+0.5%	+1.6%	0—
Claude Giroux OTT RW · vs VGK	Points	0.5	0.63	+0.13	+124UD	-145DK	Over 0.5	45.3	44.6	+121	+0.7%	+1.5%	0
Trevor Connelly VGK LW · vs OTT	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.59	+0.09	-148UD	+120DK	Under 1.5	46.1	45.5	+117	+0.7%	+1.4%	+0.9pp
Michael Amadio OTT RW · vs VGK	Goals	1+	0.21	-0.79	+500DK	—	1+ Goals	16.9	16.7	+492	+0.2%	+1.4%	0—
Shea Theodore VGK D · vs OTT	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.07	+0.57	-134UD	+110DK	Over 1.5	57.5	57.3	-135	+0.2%	+0.4%	-1.8pp
Mark Stone VGK RW · vs OTT	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.09	-0.41	o1.5-176UD	-195DK	Over 1.5	64.0	63.8	-178	+0.3%	+0.4%	-1.6pp
Jordan Spence OTT D · vs VGK	Goals	1+	0.09	-0.91	+1200DK	—	1+ Goals	7.7	7.7	+1199	+0.0%	+0.1%	-0.6pp
Jake Sanderson OTT D · vs VGK	Assists	0.5	0.68	+0.18	+120UD	-148UD	Over 0.5	45.5	45.5	+120	+0.1%	+0.1%	-0.9pp
Trevor Connelly VGK LW · vs OTT	Assists	0.5	0.41	-0.09	+221UD	-286UD	Over 0.5	31.1	31.2	+222	-0.1%	-0.2%	+1.3pp
Jake Sanderson OTT D · vs VGK	Points	0.5	0.9	+0.4	-118UD	-105UD	Over 0.5	53.9	54.1	-117	-0.2%	-0.4%	0
Claude Giroux OTT RW · vs VGK	Assists	0.5	0.46	-0.04	+187UD	-233UD	Over 0.5	34.6	34.8	+189	-0.2%	-0.7%	+0.5pp
Ivan Barbashev VGK LW · vs OTT	Points	0.5	0.72	+0.22	+108UD	-136UD	Over 0.5	47.6	48.1	+110	-0.5%	-1.0%	-2.4pp
Drake Batherson OTT RW · vs VGK	Points	0.5	0.94	+0.44	-124UD	+100UD	Over 0.5	54.8	55.4	-121	-0.6%	-1.0%	0
Dylan Cozens OTT C · vs VGK	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.39	-0.11	+146UD	-179UD	Over 2.5	40.2	40.7	+149	-0.5%	-1.1%	0—
Brett Howden VGK C · vs OTT	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.36	-0.14	+100UD	-124UD	Under 1.5	54.7	55.4	-121	-0.7%	-1.2%	-2.0pp
Ivan Barbashev VGK LW · vs OTT	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.44	-0.06	+105DK	-129UD	Under 1.5	55.6	56.3	-125	-0.7%	-1.3%	-2.4pp
Tim Stutzle OTT C · vs VGK	Assists	0.5	0.64	+0.14	+114UD	-139UD	Over 0.5	46.1	46.7	+117	-0.6%	-1.4%	+0.9pp
Fabian Zetterlund OTT LW · vs VGK	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.82	+0.32	-139UD	+116UD	Under 1.5	45.6	46.3	+119	-0.7%	-1.5%	0—
Drake Batherson OTT RW · vs VGK	Assists	0.5	0.45	-0.05	+185UD	-233UD	Over 0.5	34.5	35.1	+190	-0.6%	-1.7%	0
Shane Pinto OTT C · vs VGK	Points	0.5	0.61	+0.11	+126UD	-157UD	Over 0.5	43.5	44.2	+130	-0.8%	-1.7%	0—
William Karlsson VGK C · vs OTT	Assists	0.5	0.23	-0.27	+248UD	-323UD	Under 0.5	75.0	76.4	-300	-1.4%	-1.8%	-0.4pp
Stephen Halliday OTT C · vs VGK	Points	0.5	0.39	-0.11	+194UD	-239UD	Over 0.5	33.4	34.0	+199	-0.6%	-1.8%	+0.7pp
Fabian Zetterlund OTT LW · vs VGK	Points	0.5	0.41	-0.09	+146UD	-179UD	Under 0.5	63.0	64.2	-170	-1.2%	-1.8%	0—
Dylan Cozens OTT C · vs VGK	Assists	0.5	0.36	-0.14	+225UD	-286UD	Over 0.5	30.2	30.8	+231	-0.6%	-1.9%	+1.3pp
Jack Eichel VGK C · vs OTT	Shots on Goal	2.5	3.2	+0.7	-140DK	+117UD	Over 2.5	57.1	58.3	-133	-1.2%	-2.1%	+1.4pp
William Karlsson VGK C · vs OTT	Points	0.5	0.45	-0.05	+131UD	-162UD	Under 0.5	60.5	61.8	-153	-1.3%	-2.1%	-0.8pp
Carter Yakemchuk OTT D · vs VGK	Goals	1+	0.12	-0.88	+771UD	—	1+ Goals	11.2	11.5	+793	-0.3%	-2.5%	-0.7pp
Tim Stutzle OTT C · vs VGK	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.24	+0.74	-162UD	+131UD	Over 1.5	60.3	61.8	-152	-1.5%	-2.5%	+1.7pp
Braeden Bowman VGK RW · vs OTT	Points	0.5	0.44	-0.06	+137UD	-170UD	Under 0.5	61.4	63.0	-159	-1.6%	-2.5%	0—
Trevor Connelly VGK LW · vs OTT	Points	0.5	0.55	+0.05	+119UD	-140DK	Over 0.5	44.5	45.7	+125	-1.2%	-2.5%	+1.3pp
Jack Eichel VGK C · vs OTT	Assists	0.5	0.92	+0.42	-148UD	+120UD	Over 0.5	57.9	59.7	-138	-1.8%	-3.0%	+0.3pp

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