Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NHL Terminal

Game 6 of 15

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Tue, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

New Jersey Devils · 7-4-0

Model 2.4

Proj total 5.6

DAL

Dallas Stars · 7-3-1

Model 3.2

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· American Airlines Center

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

NJ ML

Fair +130 · Model 43.4%

+108

Edge -4.7% · EV -9.7%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

DAL ML

Fair -130 · Model 56.6%

-113

365

Edge +3.5% · EV +6.7%

Kelly ¼: 1.89% of bankroll ($18.90 of $1000)

Puck Line

NJ +1.5

Fair -194 · Model 66.0%

-250

MGM

Edge -5.4% · EV -7.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

DAL -1.5

Fair +194 · Model 34.0%

+215

Edge +2.3% · EV +7.1%

Kelly ¼: 0.83% of bankroll ($8.26 of $1000)

Total

Over 5.5

Fair -107 · Model 51.8%

-112

Edge -1.0% · EV -1.9%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 5.5

Fair +107 · Model 48.2%

-102

Edge -2.3% · EV -4.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	NJ ML	DAL ML	NJ Puck Line	DAL Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	-105	-115	+1.5-265	-1.5+215	o5.5-118	u5.5-102
FanDuel	-105	-114	+1.5-260	-1.5+205	o5.5-112	u5.5-108
BetMGM	-105	-115	+1.5-250	-1.5+200	o5.5-115	u5.5-105
Caesars	-102	-117	—	—	o5.5-120	u5.5-104
bet365	-107	-113	+1.5-265	-1.5+215	o5.5-114	u5.5-106
BetRivers	+108	-129	+1.5-265	-1.5+200	o5.5-122	u5.5-103
Unibet	-105	-114	+1.5-250	-1.5+215	o5.5-115	u5.5-103
Consensus	-105	-115	+1.5-265	-1.5+212	o5.5-115	u5.5-105
Opening Line	+130	-156	+1.5-200	-1.5+165	o5.5-125	u5.5+105

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Dallas gets slight edge at home

Dallas projects at 3.2 goals to New Jersey's 2.4, giving the Stars a modest home edge in a game lined close to a one-goal margin. The market value is strongest on Dallas moneyline, while the total sits near the model number with no clear over/under advantage.

Model projects DAL by 0.8 goals with a 5.6 total, close to the listed 5.5.
DAL ML at -113 carries the best core market edge: 56.6% model win probability and +6.69% EV.
DAL -1.5 at +215 also grades positive at +7.1% EV, though the model cover rate is only 34.0%.
Dallas enters on a five-game win streak, while New Jersey is 4-1 in its last five.
Injuries are heavier on Dallas, with Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell, Radek Faksa, Sam Steel, and Oskar Back listed out/IR; New Jersey has Seamus Casey on IR.

Props to watch

Nico Hischier 1+ PP Points (+336): highest listed prop EV at +17.28 with a 26.9% model probability.
Connor Brown 1+ Goals (+750): long-shot scoring prop with 13.5% model probability and +14.75% EV.
Wyatt Johnston 1+ PP Points (+227): home-side prop with a solid 34.1% model probability and +11.51% EV.

Lean: DAL ML

Injury Report

Seamus Casey DInjured Reserve · Knee

DAL

Esa Lindell DInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Radek Faksa COut · Lower Body
Sam Steel COut · Undisclosed
Oskar Back CInjured Reserve · Finger
Matt Duchene CInjured Reserve · Abdomen

Recent Form · Series

WLWWW

DAL

WWWWW

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/27

Game Props

NJ @ DAL · Player Props

125 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Nico Hischier NJ C · vs DAL	PP Points	1+	0.35	-0.65	+336UD	—	1+ PP Points	26.9	22.9	+272	+4.0%	+17.3%	0—
Connor Brown NJ RW · vs DAL	Goals	1+	0.2	-0.8	+750DK	—	1+ Goals	13.5	11.8	+641	+1.7%	+14.8%	0
Anthony Mantha NJ RW · vs DAL	Goals	1+	0.35	-0.65	+400DK	—	1+ Goals	22.5	20.0	+344	+2.5%	+12.5%	-0.4pp
Wyatt Johnston DAL C · vs NJ	PP Points	1+	0.4	-0.6	+227UD	—	1+ PP Points	34.1	30.6	+193	+3.5%	+11.5%	-0.7pp
Cody Glass NJ C · vs DAL	Goals	1+	0.2	-0.8	+700DK	—	1+ Goals	13.8	12.5	+625	+1.3%	+10.4%	0
Joel Kiviranta DAL LW · vs NJ	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.03	-0.47	+110DK	-129UD	Under 1.5	61.6	56.3	-160	+5.3%	+9.3%	-2.3pp
Arseny Gritsyuk NJ RW · vs DAL	Goals	1+	0.34	-0.66	+370DK	—	1+ Goals	23.1	21.3	+333	+1.8%	+8.6%	-0.5pp
Jason Robertson DAL LW · vs NJ	Goals	1+	0.51	-0.49	+187UD	—	1+ Goals	37.8	34.8	+165	+3.0%	+8.5%	-0.8pp
Anthony Mantha NJ RW · vs DAL	Points	0.5	0.61	+0.11	+193UD	-244UD	Over 0.5	37.0	34.1	+170	+2.9%	+8.4%	-0.5pp
Timo Meier NJ RW · vs DAL	Shots on Goal	2.5	3.78	+1.28	+100UD	-124UD	Over 2.5	53.6	50.0	-116	+3.6%	+7.2%	+2.4pp
Jack Hughes NJ C · vs DAL	Assists	0.5	0.82	+0.32	+115UD	-140DK	Over 0.5	49.2	46.5	+103	+2.7%	+5.8%	+0.9pp
Luke Evangelista NJ RW · vs DAL	Assists	0.5	0.53	+0.03	+205DK	-257UD	Over 0.5	34.4	32.8	+191	+1.6%	+4.9%	-1.5pp
Miro Heiskanen DAL D · vs NJ	Goals	1+	0.18	-0.82	+650DK	—	1+ Goals	13.9	13.3	+619	+0.6%	+4.3%	-2.0pp
Mikko Rantanen DAL RW · vs NJ	Assists	0.5	0.8	+0.3	+100UD	-115DK	Over 0.5	52.1	50.0	-109	+2.1%	+4.2%	+0.5pp
Luke Hughes NJ D · vs DAL	Goals	1+	0.17	-0.83	+700DK	—	1+ Goals	13.0	12.5	+669	+0.5%	+4.0%	-4.2pp
Casey DeSmith DAL G · vs NJ	Saves	24.5	23.15	-1.35	-124UD	+100DK	Under 24.5	51.4	50.0	-106	+1.4%	+2.8%	+1.0pp
Jack Hughes NJ C · vs DAL	Shots on Goal	2.5	3.66	+1.16	-139UD	+113UD	Over 2.5	59.7	58.2	-148	+1.5%	+2.6%	+1.3pp
Evan Rodrigues NJ C · vs DAL	Assists	0.5	0.28	-0.22	+366UD	-525DK	Over 0.5	22.0	21.5	+355	+0.5%	+2.5%	-0.9pp
Arseny Gritsyuk NJ RW · vs DAL	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.26	+0.76	-127UD	+105DK	Over 1.5	57.3	55.9	-134	+1.4%	+2.4%	+2.0pp
Arttu Hyry DAL RW · vs NJ	Goals	1+	0.2	-0.8	+550DK	—	1+ Goals	15.7	15.4	+537	+0.3%	+2.0%	+1.1pp
Jesper Bratt NJ LW · vs DAL	Assists	0.5	0.65	+0.15	+139UD	-173UD	Over 0.5	42.7	41.8	+134	+0.9%	+2.0%	+1.0pp
Luke Hughes NJ D · vs DAL	Assists	0.5	0.28	-0.22	+162UD	-200UD	Under 0.5	68.0	66.7	-212	+1.3%	+2.0%	+3.1pp
Arseny Gritsyuk NJ RW · vs DAL	Points	0.5	0.62	+0.12	+152UD	-189UD	Over 0.5	40.4	39.7	+148	+0.7%	+1.8%	-0.7pp
Jesper Bratt NJ LW · vs DAL	PP Points	1+	0.33	-0.67	+282UD	—	1+ PP Points	26.6	26.2	+276	+0.4%	+1.6%	0—
Anthony Mantha NJ RW · vs DAL	Assists	0.5	0.26	-0.24	+400DK	-527UD	Over 0.5	20.3	20.0	+393	+0.3%	+1.5%	-2.5pp
Jesper Bratt NJ LW · vs DAL	Points	0.5	0.88	+0.38	-113UD	-109UD	Over 0.5	53.8	53.1	-116	+0.8%	+1.4%	+2.0pp
Wyatt Johnston DAL C · vs NJ	Assists	0.5	0.56	+0.06	+151UD	-189UD	Over 0.5	40.3	39.8	+148	+0.5%	+1.1%	0—
Roope Hintz DAL C · vs NJ	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.26	+0.76	-152UD	+130DK	Over 1.5	61.0	60.3	-156	+0.7%	+1.1%	+0.8pp
Evan Rodrigues NJ C · vs DAL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.88	+0.38	+100UD	-124UD	Over 1.5	50.5	50.0	-102	+0.5%	+1.0%	+1.0pp
Evan Rodrigues NJ C · vs DAL	Points	0.5	0.45	-0.05	+210DK	-264UD	Over 0.5	32.4	32.3	+209	+0.1%	+0.4%	-1.6pp
Luke Evangelista NJ RW · vs DAL	Points	0.5	0.76	+0.26	+109UD	-134UD	Over 0.5	47.9	47.8	+109	+0.1%	+0.1%	-0.4pp
Luke Hughes NJ D · vs DAL	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.5	0	+137UD	-170UD	Over 2.5	42.2	42.2	+137	+0.0%	+0.0%	+1.5pp
Connor Hellebuyck NJ G · vs DAL	Saves	24.5	24.3	-0.2	-105UD	-105DK	Over 24.5	51.1	51.2	-104	-0.1%	-0.2%	0—
Jesper Boqvist NJ C · vs DAL	Goals	1+	0.16	-0.84	+650DK	—	1+ Goals	13.3	13.3	+652	-0.0%	-0.3%	-2.0pp
Roope Hintz DAL C · vs NJ	Assists	0.5	0.51	+0.01	+157UD	-195DK	Over 0.5	38.8	38.9	+158	-0.1%	-0.3%	+0.2pp
Nico Hischier NJ C · vs DAL	First Goal	1st	6.5%	+0.8pp	+1430UD	—	First Goal	6.5	6.5	+1438	-0.0%	-0.5%	—
Roope Hintz DAL C · vs NJ	PP Points	1+	0.25	-0.75	+287UD	—	1+ PP Points	25.7	25.8	+289	-0.1%	-0.5%	-0.9pp
Thomas Harley DAL D · vs NJ	Assists	0.5	0.44	-0.06	+188UD	-239UD	Over 0.5	34.5	34.7	+190	-0.2%	-0.6%	-1.3pp
Jason Robertson DAL LW · vs NJ	Shots on Goal	2.5	3.45	+0.95	-162UD	+131UD	Over 2.5	61.3	61.8	-158	-0.5%	-0.9%	+1.1pp
Kyle Capobianco DAL D · vs NJ	Goals	1+	0.05	-0.95	+2200DK	—	1+ Goals	4.3	4.3	+2226	-0.1%	-1.1%	-0.9pp

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