Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NHL Terminal

Game 1 of 15

First game

NextBOS @ CAR

Tue, Oct 27 · 6:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

CBJ

Columbus Blue Jackets · 4-5-0

Model 2.8

Proj total 5.6

PHI

Philadelphia Flyers · 3-7-3

Model 2.8

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Xfinity Mobile Arena

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

CBJ ML

Fair -105 · Model 51.2%

-115

UNI

Edge -2.3% · EV -4.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

PHI ML

Fair +105 · Model 48.8%

+105

CZR

Edge +0.0% · EV +0.0%

Kelly ¼: 0.01% of bankroll ($0.10 of $1000)

Puck Line

CBJ -1.5

Fair +247 · Model 28.8%

+215

Edge -3.0% · EV -9.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

PHI +1.5

Fair -247 · Model 71.2%

-250

Edge -0.2% · EV -0.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 5.5

Fair -106 · Model 51.4%

-113

Edge -1.6% · EV -3.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 5.5

Fair +106 · Model 48.6%

-100

Edge -1.4% · EV -2.8%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	CBJ ML	PHI ML	CBJ Puck Line	PHI Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	-120	+100	-1.5+210	+1.5-258	o5.5-115	u5.5-105
FanDuel	-118	-102	-1.5+198	+1.5-250	o5.5-122	u5.5-100
BetMGM	-118	-102	—	—	o5.5-118	u5.5-102
Caesars	-124	+105	—	—	o5.5-117	u5.5-106
bet365	-119	-101	-1.5+210	+1.5-260	o5.5-119	u5.5-101
BetRivers	-121	+102	-1.5+215	+1.5-278	o5.5-113	u5.5-108
Unibet	-115	-103	-1.5+210	+1.5-263	o5.5-115	u5.5-103
Consensus	-118	-102	-1.5+205	+1.5-254	o5.5-120	u5.5-102
Opening Line	-100	-120	+1.5-286	-1.5+225	o5.5-125	u5.5+105

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Even projection, slight value on Flyers

The model makes this essentially a coin-flip, projecting a 2.8-2.8 game with a fair total of 5.5. Market pricing shows the only positive EV on the main lines is Philadelphia moneyline at plus money, despite the Flyers carrying more notable injuries than Columbus.

Projection is dead even: 2.8-2.8 score, 0.0 fair margin, and 5.6 total across a 34-game sample.
Philadelphia moneyline at +105 has the best listed main-market edge: 48.8% model win probability with +0.04 EV.
Totals market is priced tightly around the model number: fair total 5.5 vs projected 5.6, with both over (-3.11 EV) and under (-2.8 EV) showing no value.
Injuries lean against Philadelphia depth, with Rasmus Ristolainen, Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny, and Nikita Grebenkin all on IR, while Columbus has no listed injuries.
Recent form is mixed but slightly better for Philadelphia: Flyers are 3-2 in the last five (LWWWL) versus Blue Jackets 2-3 (LWLLW).

Props to watch

Cam Talbot Under 22.5 Saves (+102) — top prop EV on the board at 12.31% with a 55.6% model probability.
Cole Knuble 1+ Goals (+600) — high-variance scoring prop with 15.9% model probability and 11.3% EV.
Matvei Michkov Under 0.5 Assists (-182) — model has this under hitting 68.1% with 5.52% EV.

Lean: PHI ML

Injury Report

CBJ

No injuries reported.

PHI

Rasmus Ristolainen DInjured Reserve · Hand
Owen Tippett RWInjured Reserve · Upper Body
Travis Konecny RWInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Nikita Grebenkin RWInjured Reserve · Back

Recent Form · Series

CBJ

LWLLW

PHI

LWWWL

Game Props

CBJ @ PHI · Player Props

124 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Cam Talbot CBJ G · vs PHI	Saves	22.5	20.43	-2.07	-120DK	+102UD	Under 22.5	55.6	49.5	-125	+6.1%	+12.3%	0—
Cole Knuble PHI RW · vs CBJ	First Goal	1st	4.6%	+1.1pp	+2300UD	—	First Goal	4.6	4.2	+2056	+0.5%	+11.3%	—
Cole Knuble PHI RW · vs CBJ	Goals	1+	0.23	-0.77	+600DK	—	1+ Goals	15.9	14.3	+529	+1.6%	+11.3%	-1.1pp
Oliver Bonk PHI D · vs CBJ	Assists	0.5	0.55	+0.05	+209UD	-264UD	Over 0.5	34.7	32.4	+188	+2.3%	+7.2%	0
Denton Mateychuk CBJ D · vs PHI	Goals	1+	0.19	-0.81	+650DK	—	1+ Goals	14.2	13.3	+604	+0.9%	+6.5%	+0.8pp
Matvei Michkov PHI RW · vs CBJ	Assists	0.5	0.28	-0.22	+160DK	-182UD	Under 0.5	68.1	64.5	-213	+3.6%	+5.5%	+3.7pp
Kent Johnson CBJ C · vs PHI	Points	0.5	0.47	-0.03	-118UD	-105UD	Under 0.5	54.0	51.2	-117	+2.8%	+5.4%	-1.0pp
Kent Johnson CBJ C · vs PHI	Assists	0.5	0.25	-0.25	+155DK	-186UD	Under 0.5	68.5	65.0	-217	+3.5%	+5.3%	-1.5pp
Matthew Knies CBJ LW · vs PHI	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.82	+0.32	+114UD	-135DK	Over 1.5	49.2	46.7	+103	+2.5%	+5.3%	-6.9pp
Matvei Michkov PHI RW · vs CBJ	Shots on Goal	2.5	1.76	-0.74	+125UD	-154UD	Under 2.5	63.5	60.6	-174	+2.9%	+4.7%	0
Denver Barkey PHI C · vs CBJ	Assists	0.5	0.33	-0.17	+280UD	-340DK	Over 0.5	27.5	26.3	+264	+1.2%	+4.5%	+3.2pp
Adam Fantilli CBJ C · vs PHI	Points	0.5	0.62	+0.12	-139UD	+114UD	Under 0.5	48.5	46.7	+106	+1.8%	+3.8%	+3.0pp
Alex Bump PHI LW · vs CBJ	Points	0.5	0.38	-0.12	+199UD	-215DK	Over 0.5	34.7	33.4	+188	+1.3%	+3.8%	+1.2pp
Oliver Bonk PHI D · vs CBJ	Points	0.5	0.59	+0.09	+165UD	-205UD	Over 0.5	39.0	37.7	+156	+1.3%	+3.4%	0
Cole Sillinger CBJ C · vs PHI	Points	0.5	0.5	0	+185UD	-233UD	Over 0.5	36.1	35.1	+177	+1.0%	+2.9%	+0.7pp
Damon Severson CBJ D · vs PHI	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.17	-0.33	+101UD	-129UD	Under 1.5	57.7	56.3	-136	+1.4%	+2.4%	+1.0pp
Charlie Coyle CBJ C · vs PHI	Assists	0.5	0.58	+0.08	+160UD	-200UD	Over 0.5	39.3	38.5	+154	+0.8%	+2.2%	+0.2pp
Zach Werenski CBJ D · vs PHI	Assists	0.5	0.74	+0.24	-164UD	+134UD	Under 0.5	43.6	42.7	+129	+0.9%	+2.0%	-2.3pp
Conor Garland CBJ RW · vs PHI	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.58	+0.08	+135UD	-167UD	Over 1.5	43.3	42.6	+131	+0.8%	+1.8%	-4.2pp
Trevor Zegras PHI C · vs CBJ	Goals	1+	0.28	-0.72	+299UD	—	1+ Goals	25.4	25.1	+294	+0.3%	+1.4%	+0.4pp
Tyson Foerster PHI RW · vs CBJ	Goals	1+	0.32	-0.68	+320DK	—	1+ Goals	24.1	23.8	+315	+0.3%	+1.2%	-7.4pp
Christian Dvorak PHI C · vs CBJ	Points	0.5	0.48	-0.02	+105DK	-129UD	Under 0.5	57.0	56.3	-133	+0.7%	+1.2%	0
Adam Fantilli CBJ C · vs PHI	Assists	0.5	0.31	-0.19	+156UD	-193UD	Under 0.5	66.5	65.9	-199	+0.6%	+1.0%	+3.3pp
Sean Couturier PHI C · vs CBJ	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.35	-0.15	+115DK	-136UD	Under 1.5	58.1	57.6	-139	+0.5%	+0.8%	+1.1pp
Jamie Drysdale PHI D · vs CBJ	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.34	-0.16	+107UD	-130UD	Under 1.5	56.9	56.5	-132	+0.4%	+0.7%	0—
Porter Martone PHI RW · vs CBJ	Goals	1+	0.32	-0.68	+274UD	—	1+ Goals	26.9	26.7	+272	+0.2%	+0.6%	+2.6pp
Travis Sanheim PHI D · vs CBJ	Goals	1+	0.11	-0.89	+1000DK	—	1+ Goals	9.1	9.1	+999	+0.0%	+0.1%	0
Conor Garland CBJ RW · vs PHI	Points	0.5	0.29	-0.21	+177UD	-223UD	Under 0.5	69.1	69.0	-224	+0.1%	+0.1%	-1.3pp
Sean Monahan CBJ C · vs PHI	Assists	0.5	0.27	-0.23	+245DK	-286UD	Under 0.5	74.1	74.1	-286	+0.0%	+0.0%	+0.8pp
Tyson Foerster PHI RW · vs CBJ	Assists	0.5	0.08	-0.42	+345UD	-425DK	Under 0.5	80.9	81.0	-424	-0.1%	-0.1%	+2.4pp
Alex Bump PHI LW · vs CBJ	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.49	-0.01	-115UD	+100DK	Under 1.5	49.9	50.0	+100	-0.1%	-0.2%	+4.0pp
Valeri Nichushkin CBJ RW · vs PHI	Assists	0.5	0.44	-0.06	+181UD	-225DK	Over 0.5	35.5	35.6	+182	-0.1%	-0.3%	+1.3pp
Zach Werenski CBJ D · vs PHI	Points	1.5	0.93	-0.57	+181UD	-228UD	Under 1.5	69.3	69.5	-226	-0.2%	-0.3%	-1.9pp
Porter Martone PHI RW · vs CBJ	Assists	0.5	0.39	-0.11	+201UD	-245DK	Over 0.5	33.1	33.2	+202	-0.1%	-0.4%	+4.0pp
Jamie Drysdale PHI D · vs CBJ	Points	0.5	0.29	-0.21	+166UD	-209UD	Under 0.5	67.3	67.6	-206	-0.3%	-0.5%	-0.6pp
Dan Vladar PHI G · vs CBJ	Saves	25.5	24.1	-1.4	o24.5-129UD	u24.5+105UD	Under 24.5	48.5	48.8	+106	-0.3%	-0.6%	-2.0pp
Denton Mateychuk CBJ D · vs PHI	Assists	0.5	0.19	-0.31	+252UD	-323UD	Under 0.5	75.9	76.4	-315	-0.5%	-0.6%	+2.6pp
Conor Garland CBJ RW · vs PHI	Assists	0.5	0.18	-0.32	+320DK	-400UD	Under 0.5	79.5	80.0	-388	-0.5%	-0.6%	-1.2pp
Matvei Michkov PHI RW · vs CBJ	Goals	1+	0.42	-0.58	+201UD	—	1+ Goals	32.9	33.2	+204	-0.3%	-1.0%	+1.1pp
Mathieu Olivier CBJ RW · vs PHI	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.58	+0.08	-124UD	+100UD	Under 1.5	49.5	50.0	+102	-0.5%	-1.0%	+2.0pp

Showing 40 of 124