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Game 5 of 15

Tue, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

NYI

New York Islanders · 5-4-2

Model 2.9

@

Proj total 5.8

NSH

Nashville Predators · 4-3-4

Model 2.9

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Bridgestone Arena

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

NYI ML

Fair +106 · Model 48.6%

+104

BR

Edge -0.4% · EV -0.9%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

NSH ML

Fair -106 · Model 51.4%

-119

UNI

Edge -2.9% · EV -5.4%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Puck Line

NYI +1.5

Fair -244 · Model 70.9%

-250

DK

Edge -0.5% · EV -0.7%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

NSH -1.5

Fair +244 · Model 29.1%

+210

BR

Edge -3.2% · EV -9.8%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 5.5

Fair -115 · Model 53.6%

-120

DK

Edge -0.9% · EV -1.7%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 5.5

Fair +115 · Model 46.4%

+102

UNI

Edge -3.1% · EV -6.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	NYI ML	NSH ML	NYI Puck Line	NSH Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	+102	-122	+1.5-250	-1.5+205	o5.5-120	u5.5+100
FanDuel	-100	-120	+1.5-250	-1.5+198	o5.5-120	u5.5-102
BetMGM	+100	-120	+1.5-250	-1.5+200	o5.5-120	u5.5+100
Caesars	+101	-120	—	—	o5.5-124	u5.5+101
bet365	+102	-122	+1.5-250	-1.5+205	o5.5-121	u5.5+101
BetRivers	+104	-122	+1.5-265	-1.5+210	o5.5-121	u5.5-104
Unibet	-100	-119	+1.5-250	-1.5+205	o5.5-120	u5.5+102
Consensus	-100	-120	+1.5-250	-1.5+202	o5.5-120	u5.5+100
Opening Line	-100	-120	+1.5-278	-1.5+220	o5.5-125	u5.5+105

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Projection sees near coin-flip in Nashville

The model lands this matchup almost exactly even, with both teams projected for 2.9 goals and a 5.8 total. Market prices don’t create a strong side, but the game profile points to a tight, lower-event matchup relative to a fair total of 6.0.

Projection is dead even: 2.9-2.9 scoreline, 0.0 fair spread, 51.4% home win probability.
No listed market shows positive EV on main sides/totals; best of the group is NYI moneyline at -0.86% EV, still not a true edge.
Islanders carry the more notable injury list with four players out, including Mathew Barzal and Alexander Romanov.
Recent form is mixed for both clubs: Nashville is 2-3 in its last five, while New York is also 2-3.
Total outlook is modest: model total is 5.8 versus a fair total of 6.0, with Over 5.5 priced at -120 and only 53.6% model probability.

Props to watch

Adam Wilsby Over 0.5 Assists (+328): top listed prop EV at +9.57% with a 25.6% model probability.
Steven Stamkos 1+ PP Points (+217): 34.4% model probability and +9.05% EV.
Ryan O'Reilly 1+ Goals (+217): 33.1% model probability with +4.93% EV.

Lean: No strong side

Injury Report

NYI

Matias Maccelli LWInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Calum Ritchie CInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Alexander Romanov DInjured Reserve · Knee
Mathew Barzal CInjured Reserve · Knee

NSH

No injuries reported.

Recent Form · Series

NYI

LWWLL

NSH

LWLLW

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/27

Game Props

NYI @ NSH · Player Props

124 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Status	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move	Slip
Adam Wilsby NSH D · vs NYI		Assists	0.5	0.34	-0.16	+328UD	-425DK	Over 0.5	25.6	23.4	+291	+2.2%	+9.6%	+0.9pp
Steven Stamkos NSH C · vs NYI		PP Points	1+	0.45	-0.55	+217UD	—	1+ PP Points	34.4	31.5	+191	+2.9%	+9.1%	0—
Logan Stanley NYI D · vs NSH		Points	0.5	0.39	-0.11	+253UD	-320DK	Over 0.5	29.8	28.3	+236	+1.5%	+5.2%	+1.3pp
Ryan O'Reilly NSH C · vs NYI		Goals	1+	0.41	-0.59	+217UD	—	1+ Goals	33.1	31.5	+202	+1.6%	+4.9%	+2.3pp
Steven Stamkos NSH C · vs NYI		Goals	1+	0.56	-0.44	+166UD	—	1+ Goals	39.4	37.6	+154	+1.8%	+4.8%	-1.7pp
Logan Stanley NYI D · vs NSH		Assists	0.5	0.32	-0.18	+311UD	-417UD	Over 0.5	25.3	24.3	+295	+1.0%	+4.0%	-0.7pp
Roman Josi NSH D · vs NYI		PP Points	1+	0.51	-0.49	+183UD	—	1+ PP Points	36.5	35.3	+174	+1.2%	+3.3%	0—
Jayden Struble NSH D · vs NYI		Goals	1+	0.06	-0.94	+2000DK	—	1+ Goals	4.9	4.8	+1941	+0.1%	+2.9%	+0.4pp
Adam Edstrom NSH C · vs NYI		Goals	1+	0.2	-0.8	+550DK	—	1+ Goals	15.8	15.4	+533	+0.4%	+2.7%	-2.0pp
Ryan O'Reilly NSH C · vs NYI		PP Points	1+	0.37	-0.63	+240UD	—	1+ PP Points	30.2	29.4	+231	+0.8%	+2.7%	0—
Steven Stamkos NSH C · vs NYI		Shots on Goal	2.5	2.33	-0.17	+110DK	-124UD	Under 2.5	56.8	55.4	-131	+1.4%	+2.6%	+1
Simon Holmstrom NYI RW · vs NSH		Assists	0.5	0.2	-0.3	+205DK	-257UD	Under 0.5	73.7	72.0	-280	+1.7%	+2.4%	+1.1pp
Juuse Saros NSH G · vs NYI		Saves	25.5	26.66	+1.16	+100UD	-124UD	Over 25.5	51.1	50.0	-104	+1.1%	+2.2%	-3.5pp
Nils Hoglander NSH LW · vs NYI		Shots on Goal	1.5	1.07	-0.43	+140DK	-173UD	Under 1.5	64.6	63.4	-182	+1.2%	+1.9%	+0.9pp
Brayden Schenn NYI C · vs NSH		Shots on Goal	1.5	1.74	+0.24	-135DK	+116UD	Under 1.5	47.1	46.3	+112	+0.8%	+1.7%	-1.4pp
Simon Holmstrom NYI RW · vs NSH		Points	0.5	0.49	-0.01	-105UD	-118UD	Under 0.5	54.9	54.1	-122	+0.8%	+1.4%	+1.0pp
Jonathan Marchessault NSH RW · vs NYI		Points	0.5	0.44	-0.06	+112UD	-125DK	Under 0.5	56.3	55.6	-129	+0.7%	+1.3%	+3.4pp
Simon Holmstrom NYI RW · vs NSH		Goals	1+	0.29	-0.71	+279UD	—	1+ Goals	26.7	26.4	+275	+0.3%	+1.2%	-0.4pp
Victor Eklund NYI LW · vs NSH		Points	0.5	0.46	-0.04	+125DK	-148UD	Under 0.5	60.2	59.7	-151	+0.5%	+0.9%	-2.0pp
Jonathan Marchessault NSH RW · vs NYI		Assists	0.5	0.25	-0.25	+205DK	-257UD	Under 0.5	72.1	72.0	-258	+0.1%	+0.1%	+2.8pp
Filip Forsberg NSH LW · vs NYI		Assists	0.5	0.59	+0.09	+132UD	-164UD	Over 0.5	43.1	43.1	+132	0.0%	-0.0%	+0.6pp
Bo Horvat NYI C · vs NSH		PP Points	1+	0.33	-0.67	+273UD	—	1+ PP Points	26.7	26.8	+275	-0.1%	-0.4%	0—
Alexander Kerfoot NSH C · vs NYI		Assists	0.5	0.22	-0.28	+295DK	-358UD	Under 0.5	77.7	78.2	-348	-0.5%	-0.6%	+0.4pp
Victor Eklund NYI LW · vs NSH		Shots on Goal	1.5	1.46	-0.04	-107UD	-115UD	Under 1.5	53.1	53.5	-113	-0.4%	-0.7%	-2.0pp
Jack Drury NSH C · vs NYI		Points	0.5	0.31	-0.19	+254UD	-310DK	Over 0.5	28.0	28.2	+257	-0.3%	-0.9%	+2.1pp
Semyon Varlamov NYI G · vs NSH		Saves	24.5	23.86	-0.64	-118UD	-105UD	Under 24.5	50.7	51.2	-103	-0.5%	-1.0%	0—
Roman Josi NSH D · vs NYI		Shots on Goal	2.5	2.57	+0.07	+111UD	-135DK	Over 2.5	46.9	47.4	+113	-0.5%	-1.0%	+1.4pp
Matthew Schaefer NYI D · vs NSH		Assists	0.5	0.56	+0.06	+129UD	-155DK	Over 0.5	43.2	43.7	+131	-0.5%	-1.1%	+0.9pp
Adam Wilsby NSH D · vs NYI		Points	0.5	0.35	-0.15	+249UD	-323UD	Over 0.5	28.3	28.7	+253	-0.3%	-1.2%	+1.1pp
Steven Stamkos NSH C · vs NYI		Assists	0.5	0.44	-0.06	+160DK	-186UD	Under 0.5	64.2	65.0	-179	-0.8%	-1.3%	0
Roman Josi NSH D · vs NYI		Points	0.5	0.93	+0.43	-150UD	+125DK	Over 0.5	59.2	60.0	-145	-0.8%	-1.3%	+1.7pp
Bo Horvat NYI C · vs NSH		Assists	0.5	0.49	-0.01	+164UD	-205UD	Over 0.5	37.3	37.9	+168	-0.6%	-1.5%	+1.2pp
Ryan O'Reilly NSH C · vs NYI		Shots on Goal	1.5	2.1	+0.6	-154UD	+125DK	Over 1.5	59.6	60.6	-148	-1.0%	-1.7%	+0.8pp
Simon Holmstrom NYI RW · vs NSH		Shots on Goal	1.5	1.38	-0.12	+111UD	-136UD	Under 1.5	56.5	57.6	-130	-1.1%	-2.0%	-7.3pp
Victor Eklund NYI LW · vs NSH		Goals	1+	0.22	-0.78	+450DK	—	1+ Goals	17.8	18.2	+462	-0.4%	-2.1%	-0.9pp
Jonathan Marchessault NSH RW · vs NYI		Shots on Goal	2.5	2.04	-0.46	+148UD	-182UD	Under 2.5	63.1	64.5	-171	-1.4%	-2.2%	-2.3pp
Bo Horvat NYI C · vs NSH		Goals	1+	0.46	-0.54	+190DK	—	1+ Goals	33.7	34.5	+197	-0.8%	-2.3%	+0.6pp
Brady Skjei NSH D · vs NYI		Points	0.5	0.3	-0.2	+235DK	-295UD	Under 0.5	72.8	74.7	-268	-1.9%	-2.5%	-1.2pp
Matthew Wood NSH RW · vs NYI		Assists	0.5	0.18	-0.32	+350DK	-477UD	Under 0.5	80.5	82.7	-413	-2.2%	-2.6%	0
Jack Drury NSH C · vs NYI		Assists	0.5	0.16	-0.34	+381UD	-527UD	Under 0.5	81.8	84.1	-449	-2.3%	-2.7%	+2.1pp

Showing 40 of 124