Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

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Game 7 of 15

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Tue, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

FLA

Florida Panthers · 6-4-2

Model 2.8

Proj total 5.8

WPG

Winnipeg Jets · 4-4-3

Model 3

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Canada Life Centre

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

FLA ML

Fair -107 · Model 51.6%

-128

365

Edge -4.5% · EV -8.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

WPG ML

Fair +107 · Model 48.4%

+114

Edge +1.7% · EV +3.6%

Kelly ¼: 0.78% of bankroll ($7.84 of $1000)

Puck Line

FLA -1.5

Fair +241 · Model 29.4%

+190

Edge -5.1% · EV -14.7%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

WPG +1.5

Fair -241 · Model 70.6%

-220

MGM

Edge +1.9% · EV +2.7%

Kelly ¼: 1.48% of bankroll ($14.80 of $1000)

Total

Over 6

Fair +140 · Model 50.4%

+107

UNI

Edge +2.1% · EV +4.3%

Kelly ¼: 1.01% of bankroll ($10.11 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair -140 · Model 58.3%

-128

Edge +2.2% · EV +3.9%

Kelly ¼: 1.23% of bankroll ($12.31 of $1000)

Line shopping · every book

Book	FLA ML	WPG ML	FLA Puck Line	WPG Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	-130	+110	-1.5+190	+1.5-230	o6.5+114	u6.5-135
FanDuel	-132	+110	-1.5+186	+1.5-235	o6.5+104	u6.5-128
BetMGM	-135	+110	-1.5+180	+1.5-220	o6-120	u6+100
Caesars	-132	+112	—	—	o6-110	u6-112
bet365	-128	+108	-1.5+190	+1.5-235	o5.5-140	u5.5+120
BetRivers	-136	+114	-1.5+188	+1.5-235	o5.5-136	u5.5+110
Unibet	-133	+110	-1.5+180	+1.5-222	o6+107	u6-128
Consensus	-132	+110	-1.5+188	+1.5-232	o6-120	u6-100
Opening Line	-125	+105	-1.5+210	+1.5-263	o6.5+110	u6.5-132

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Jets slight home value in tight total

The model makes this close to a coin flip, projecting Winnipeg by 0.1 goals with a 3.0-2.8 scoreline. Market value shows up more on the Jets side and around the total, while both teams enter with notable injury lists and Winnipeg on a five-game skid.

Winnipeg moneyline shows positive value: 48.4% model win probability at +114 for +3.58% EV.
Projected total is 5.8 with fair total 6.0; Over 6 at +107 carries +4.27% EV, while Under 6.5 at -128 shows +3.85% EV.
Winnipeg has lost five straight (LLLLL), while Florida is 3-2 in its last five (WWLLW).
Injuries are meaningful on both sides: WPG lists Josh Morrissey, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Nick Bjugstad on IR; FLA lists Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, and Jacob Markstrom on IR.
Spread market is less appealing than moneyline: WPG +1.5 has small value (+2.69% EV), but the model's fair spread is essentially pick'em.

Props to watch

Neal Pionk 2+ Goals (+5410): highest listed prop EV at +179.13 with a 5.1% model probability.
Lars Eller 2+ Goals (+4420): model gives 4.1% probability for +85.09 EV.
Seth Jones 2+ Goals (+3670): 4.3% model probability and +62.14 EV.

Lean: WPG ML

Injury Report

FLA

Jacob Markstrom GInjured Reserve · Upper Body
Brad Marchand LWInjured Reserve · Leg
Aleksander Barkov CInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Jonah Gadjovich LWInjured Reserve · Upper Body

WPG

Vladislav Namestnikov CInjured Reserve · Undisclosed
Nick Bjugstad CInjured Reserve · Pectoral
Josh Morrissey DInjured Reserve · Wrist
Garrett Brown CInjured Reserve · Lower Body

Recent Form · Series

FLA

WWLLW

WPG

LLLLL

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/27

Game Props

FLA @ WPG · Player Props

102 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Neal Pionk WPG D · vs FLA	Goals	1+	0.07	-0.93	2+ Goals+5410UD	—	2+ Goals	5.1	1.8	+1874	+3.3%	+179.1%	0—
Lars Eller FLA C · vs WPG	Goals	1+	0.08	-0.92	2+ Goals+4420UD	—	2+ Goals	4.1	2.2	+2342	+1.9%	+85.1%	0
Adam Lowry WPG C · vs FLA	Goals	1+	0.08	-0.92	2+ Goals+5410UD	—	2+ Goals	2.9	1.8	+3298	+1.1%	+62.2%	-0.8pp
Seth Jones FLA D · vs WPG	Goals	1+	0.11	-0.89	2+ Goals+3670UD	—	2+ Goals	4.3	2.7	+2225	+1.6%	+62.1%	0
Viggo Bjorck WPG C · vs FLA	Goals	1+	0.1	-0.9	2+ Goals+3160UD	—	2+ Goals	4.5	3.1	+2102	+1.5%	+48.0%	+1.3pp
Mario Ferraro WPG D · vs FLA	Goals	1+	0.09	-0.91	+2500DK	—	1+ Goals	4.7	3.8	+2028	+0.8%	+22.2%	-0.5pp
Kyle Connor WPG LW · vs FLA	First Goal	1st	11.8%	+0.6pp	+833UD	—	First Goal	11.8	10.7	+747	+1.1%	+10.1%	—
Gabriel Vilardi WPG C · vs FLA	First Goal	1st	6.8%	+0.3pp	+1510UD	—	First Goal	6.8	6.2	+1369	+0.6%	+9.6%	—
Alex Iafallo WPG LW · vs FLA	First Goal	1st	4.2%	+0.2pp	+2460UD	—	First Goal	4.2	3.9	+2258	+0.3%	+8.6%	—
Cole Schwindt FLA RW · vs WPG	Goals	1+	0.14	-0.86	+900DK	—	1+ Goals	10.8	10.0	+826	+0.8%	+8.0%	-0.5pp
Morgan Barron WPG C · vs FLA	Goals	1+	0.1	-0.9	2+ Goals+5410UD	—	2+ Goals	1.9	1.8	+5042	+0.1%	+7.2%	0
Anton Lundell FLA C · vs WPG	First Goal	1st	5.4%	+0.1pp	+1860UD	—	First Goal	5.4	5.1	+1736	+0.3%	+6.8%	—
Carter Verhaeghe FLA C · vs WPG	First Goal	1st	8.5%	+0.2pp	+1150UD	—	First Goal	8.5	8.0	+1071	+0.5%	+6.8%	—
Sam Reinhart FLA C · vs WPG	First Goal	1st	9.3%	+0.2pp	+1040UD	—	First Goal	9.3	8.8	+973	+0.6%	+6.3%	—
Neal Pionk WPG D · vs FLA	Points	0.5	0.4	-0.1	-107UD	-115UD	Under 0.5	56.8	53.5	-131	+3.3%	+6.2%	-0.5pp
Neal Pionk WPG D · vs FLA	Assists	0.5	0.33	-0.17	+125DK	-148UD	Under 0.5	63.2	59.7	-172	+3.5%	+5.9%	-0.8pp
Mark Scheifele WPG C · vs FLA	First Goal	1st	8.3%	+0.1pp	+1170UD	—	First Goal	8.3	7.9	+1102	+0.4%	+5.6%	—
Mark Scheifele WPG C · vs FLA	Assists	0.5	0.7	+0.2	-120DK	+113UD	Under 0.5	49.5	46.9	+102	+2.5%	+5.4%	+0.5pp
Kyle Connor WPG LW · vs FLA	Goals	1+	0.62	-0.38	+154UD	—	1+ Goals	41.5	39.4	+141	+2.1%	+5.4%	-0.9pp
Brady Tkachuk FLA LW · vs WPG	First Goal	1st	10.7%	+0.1pp	+882UD	—	First Goal	10.7	10.2	+834	+0.5%	+5.2%	—
Dawson Mercer WPG C · vs FLA	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.03	+0.53	+105UD	-129UD	Over 1.5	51.3	48.8	-105	+2.5%	+5.2%	-2.5pp
Kyle Connor WPG LW · vs FLA	Shots on Goal	3.5	3.81	+0.31	+124UD	-154UD	Over 3.5	46.7	44.6	+114	+2.1%	+4.6%	0
Matthew Tkachuk FLA LW · vs WPG	First Goal	1st	9.3%	0pp	+1030UD	—	First Goal	9.3	8.8	+980	+0.4%	+4.6%	—
Seth Jones FLA D · vs WPG	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.16	+0.66	-124UD	+100DK	Over 1.5	56.6	55.4	-130	+1.2%	+2.3%	+1.4pp
Sam Reinhart FLA C · vs WPG	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.81	+0.31	+109UD	-134UD	Over 2.5	48.9	47.8	+104	+1.1%	+2.2%	+1.0pp
Dawson Mercer WPG C · vs FLA	Assists	0.5	0.31	-0.19	+325UD	-435UD	Over 0.5	23.8	23.5	+320	+0.3%	+1.1%	0—
Eetu Luostarinen FLA C · vs WPG	First Goal	1st	4.2%	-0.1pp	+2290UD	—	First Goal	4.2	4.2	+2264	+0.1%	+1.1%	—
Neal Pionk WPG D · vs FLA	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.94	+0.44	-124UD	+105DK	Over 1.5	55.9	55.4	-127	+0.5%	+1.0%	+2.4pp
Sam Bennett FLA C · vs WPG	Assists	0.5	0.35	-0.15	+145UD	-179UD	Under 0.5	64.7	64.2	-183	+0.5%	+0.8%	0—
Matthew Tkachuk FLA LW · vs WPG	Goals	1+	0.38	-0.62	+215UD	—	1+ Goals	32.0	31.7	+212	+0.3%	+0.8%	0
Niko Mikkola FLA D · vs WPG	Goals	1+	0.06	-0.94	+1800DK	—	1+ Goals	5.3	5.3	+1787	+0.0%	+0.7%	0
Eetu Luostarinen FLA C · vs WPG	Points	0.5	0.33	-0.17	+180DK	-213UD	Under 0.5	68.5	68.1	-217	+0.5%	+0.7%	+1.1pp
Sam Bennett FLA C · vs WPG	Points	0.5	0.65	+0.15	-136UD	+111UD	Under 0.5	47.7	47.4	+110	+0.3%	+0.7%	0—
Seth Jones FLA D · vs WPG	Points	0.5	0.79	+0.29	-113UD	-105DK	Over 0.5	53.2	53.1	-114	+0.1%	+0.3%	+1.0pp
Cole Perfetti WPG C · vs FLA	Assists	0.5	0.29	-0.21	+170UD	-213UD	Under 0.5	67.9	68.1	-212	-0.1%	-0.2%	0
Sam Reinhart FLA C · vs WPG	Points	0.5	0.86	+0.36	-160DK	+135UD	Under 0.5	42.4	42.6	+136	-0.1%	-0.4%	+0.9pp
Carter Verhaeghe FLA C · vs WPG	Points	0.5	0.73	+0.23	-135DK	+111UD	Under 0.5	47.1	47.4	+112	-0.3%	-0.6%	+1.0pp
Brady Tkachuk FLA LW · vs WPG	Shots on Goal	3.5	3.49	-0.01	+124UD	-154UD	Over 3.5	44.3	44.6	+126	-0.3%	-0.8%	+0.9pp
Dylan Samberg WPG D · vs FLA	Points	0.5	0.24	-0.26	+213UD	-278UD	Under 0.5	72.9	73.5	-269	-0.6%	-0.9%	+0.5pp
Gustav Forsling FLA D · vs WPG	Assists	0.5	0.23	-0.27	+265DK	-334UD	Under 0.5	76.2	77.0	-320	-0.8%	-1.0%	-0.1pp

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