Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

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Game 8 of 15

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Tue, Oct 27 · 8:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

MIN

Minnesota Wild · 8-3-2

Model 3.1

Proj total 6.3

UTA

Utah Mammoth · 8-4-0

Model 3.2

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Delta Center

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

MIN ML

Fair +111 · Model 47.5%

+110

CZR

Edge -0.1% · EV -0.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

UTA ML

Fair -111 · Model 52.5%

-125

Edge -3.1% · EV -5.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Puck Line

MIN +1.5

Fair -230 · Model 69.7%

-220

MGM

Edge +0.9% · EV +1.4%

Kelly ¼: 0.76% of bankroll ($7.60 of $1000)

UTA -1.5

Fair +230 · Model 30.3%

+195

Edge -3.6% · EV -10.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 6

Fair +111 · Model 56.3%

-108

UNI

Edge +4.4% · EV +8.5%

Kelly ¼: 2.28% of bankroll ($22.76 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair -111 · Model 52.5%

-118

Edge -1.6% · EV -3.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	MIN ML	UTA ML	MIN Puck Line	UTA Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	+105	-125	+1.5-238	-1.5+195	o6.5-102	u6.5-118
FanDuel	+108	-130	+1.5-235	-1.5+186	o6.5-100	u6.5-122
BetMGM	+105	-125	+1.5-220	-1.5+185	o6.5+100	u6.5-120
Caesars	+110	-130	—	—	o6.5+107	u6.5-128
bet365	+107	-127	+1.5-240	-1.5+195	o6.5+100	u6.5-120
BetRivers	+108	-127	+1.5-245	-1.5+195	o6.5+100	u6.5-125
Unibet	+102	-125	+1.5-238	-1.5+190	o6-108	u6-110
Consensus	+105	-125	+1.5-239	-1.5+195	o6.5-100	u6.5-120
Opening Line	-100	-120	+1.5-263	-1.5+210	o6.5-105	u6.5-116

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Projected coin flip with slight lean to goals

This profiles as a very tight matchup, with Utah projected just 3.2-3.1 and only a 0.1-goal edge at home. The clearer angle is on scoring environment rather than side, as the model total of 6.3 sits above a market 6 and makes the over the strongest listed edge.

Projection is essentially even: Utah 3.2, Minnesota 3.1, with Utah win probability 52.5%.
Best listed market edge is Over 6 (-108), where the model gives 56.3% and +8.52% EV.
Moneyline prices look efficient to slightly expensive on both sides: UTA ML -125 carries -5.5% EV, MIN ML +110 is -0.25% EV.
Minnesota has more notable absences in the JSON, including Filip Gustavsson, Brock Faber, Marcus Foligno, and Nick Foligno, while Utah is without John Marino plus two IR skaters.
If avoiding the total, MIN +1.5 (-220) is the only side market showing positive EV at +1.38%, backed by a 69.7% model probability.

Props to watch

Kirill Kaprizov 1+ Goals (+130): model probability 50.7% for the top prop EV on the board at +16.61%.
Barrett Hayton Over 0.5 Assists (+313): model probability 26.8% and +10.68% EV in a game projected above six goals.
Joel Eriksson Ek Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+105): modest but positive +7.01% EV with a 52.2% model probability.

Lean: Over 6

Injury Report

MIN

Filip Gustavsson GInjured Reserve · Hip
Marcus Foligno LWInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Nick Foligno LWInjured Reserve · Upper Body
Brock Faber DInjured Reserve · Skull

UTA

John Marino DOut · Upper Body
Michael Carcone LWInjured Reserve · Upper Body
Maveric Lamoureux DInjured Reserve · Shoulder

Recent Form · Series

MIN

WLLWW

UTA

WLWLW

Game Props

MIN @ UTA · Player Props

121 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Kirill Kaprizov MIN LW · vs UTA	Goals	1+	0.77	-0.23	+130UD	—	1+ Goals	50.7	43.5	-103	+7.2%	+16.6%	-1.1pp
Andrew Peeke UTA D · vs MIN	Goals	1+	0.07	-0.93	+2000DK	—	1+ Goals	5.4	4.8	+1752	+0.6%	+13.4%	-0.2pp
Olli Maatta MIN D · vs UTA	Goals	1+	0.07	-0.93	+2000DK	—	1+ Goals	5.3	4.8	+1787	+0.5%	+11.3%	-0.2pp
Barrett Hayton UTA C · vs MIN	Assists	0.5	0.38	-0.12	+313UD	-417UD	Over 0.5	26.8	24.2	+273	+2.6%	+10.7%	-0.5pp
Kirill Kaprizov MIN LW · vs UTA	PP Points	1+	0.4	-0.6	+176UD	—	1+ PP Points	39.8	36.2	+151	+3.6%	+9.8%	0—
Joel Eriksson Ek MIN C · vs UTA	Shots on Goal	2.5	3.06	+0.56	+105UD	-125DK	Over 2.5	52.2	48.8	-109	+3.4%	+7.0%	-1.0pp
Joel Eriksson Ek MIN C · vs UTA	PP Points	1+	0.27	-0.73	+348UD	—	1+ PP Points	23.7	22.3	+322	+1.4%	+6.2%	0—
Kailer Yamamoto UTA RW · vs MIN	Goals	1+	0.29	-0.71	+400DK	—	1+ Goals	20.9	20.0	+378	+0.9%	+4.5%	0
Nate Schmidt UTA D · vs MIN	Goals	1+	0.07	-0.93	+1700DK	—	1+ Goals	5.8	5.6	+1624	+0.2%	+4.4%	-0.3pp
Logan Cooley UTA C · vs MIN	Shots on Goal	2.5	1.53	-0.97	+150UD	-186UD	Under 2.5	67.6	65.0	-209	+2.6%	+3.9%	-4.9pp
Quinn Hughes MIN D · vs UTA	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.71	+0.21	+135UD	-167UD	Over 2.5	44.2	42.6	+126	+1.6%	+3.9%	-0.8pp
MacKenzie Weegar UTA D · vs MIN	Assists	0.5	0.24	-0.26	+180DK	-218UD	Under 0.5	70.8	68.6	-242	+2.3%	+3.3%	-0.7pp
Vincent Trocheck UTA C · vs MIN	Assists	0.5	0.45	-0.05	+221UD	-286UD	Over 0.5	32.1	31.2	+212	+0.9%	+3.0%	-2.6pp
Matt Boldy MIN LW · vs UTA	Shots on Goal	3.5	3.9	+0.4	+120DK	-141UD	Over 3.5	46.7	45.5	+114	+1.3%	+2.7%	-0.9pp
Blake Coleman MIN LW · vs UTA	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.37	+0.87	-124UD	+102UD	Over 1.5	56.6	55.4	-130	+1.2%	+2.3%	0
Kailer Yamamoto UTA RW · vs MIN	Assists	0.5	0.3	-0.2	+335UD	-455UD	Over 0.5	23.5	23.0	+326	+0.5%	+2.2%	-0.6pp
Clayton Keller UTA RW · vs MIN	PP Points	1+	0.55	-0.45	+151UD	—	1+ PP Points	40.7	39.8	+146	+0.9%	+2.2%	0—
Kailer Yamamoto UTA RW · vs MIN	Points	0.5	0.58	+0.08	+165DK	-205UD	Over 0.5	38.4	37.7	+160	+0.7%	+1.8%	-0.6pp
Vincent Trocheck UTA C · vs MIN	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.61	+0.11	-105DK	-105UD	Under 1.5	52.1	51.2	-109	+0.9%	+1.7%	-4.5pp
Anders Lee UTA LW · vs MIN	Assists	0.5	0.27	-0.23	+360UD	-500DK	Over 0.5	22.1	21.7	+352	+0.4%	+1.7%	0—
Nick Schmaltz UTA C · vs MIN	Goals	1+	0.48	-0.52	+205DK	—	1+ Goals	33.3	32.8	+200	+0.5%	+1.6%	-1.7pp
Maxim Shabanov MIN RW · vs UTA	PP Points	1+	0.29	-0.71	+300UD	—	1+ PP Points	25.3	25.0	+295	+0.3%	+1.2%	0—
Nick Schmaltz UTA C · vs MIN	Points	0.5	0.98	+0.48	-141UD	+120DK	Over 0.5	59.0	58.5	-144	+0.5%	+0.8%	+2.0pp
Dmitri Simashev UTA D · vs MIN	Goals	1+	0.07	-0.93	+1500DK	—	1+ Goals	6.3	6.2	+1487	+0.1%	+0.8%	0
Quinn Hughes MIN D · vs UTA	PP Points	1+	0.46	-0.54	+159UD	—	1+ PP Points	38.8	38.6	+158	+0.2%	+0.5%	0—
Blake Coleman MIN LW · vs UTA	Goals	1+	0.3	-0.7	+340DK	—	1+ Goals	22.8	22.7	+339	+0.1%	+0.3%	-0.5pp
Matt Boldy MIN LW · vs UTA	Assists	0.5	0.52	+0.02	-105UD	-118UD	Under 0.5	54.3	54.1	-119	+0.2%	+0.3%	-1.0pp
Dylan Guenther UTA RW · vs MIN	Shots on Goal	3.5	3	-0.5	+126UD	-154UD	Under 3.5	60.8	60.6	-155	+0.2%	+0.3%	0
Jared Spurgeon MIN D · vs UTA	Goals	1+	0.09	-0.91	+1200DK	—	1+ Goals	7.7	7.7	+1199	+0.0%	+0.1%	0
MacKenzie Weegar UTA D · vs MIN	Points	0.5	0.35	-0.15	+150UD	-186UD	Under 0.5	65.0	65.0	-186	-0.0%	-0.1%	-0.7pp
Clayton Keller UTA RW · vs MIN	Assists	0.5	0.83	+0.33	-107UD	-115UD	Over 0.5	51.5	51.7	-106	-0.2%	-0.4%	-1.5pp
Vincent Trocheck UTA C · vs MIN	Points	0.5	0.7	+0.2	+114UD	-139UD	Over 0.5	46.4	46.7	+116	-0.3%	-0.7%	-1.3pp
Mikhail Sergachev UTA D · vs MIN	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.32	-0.18	+147UD	-180DK	Over 2.5	40.2	40.5	+149	-0.3%	-0.7%	+1
Barrett Hayton UTA C · vs MIN	Points	0.5	0.5	0	+169UD	-213UD	Over 0.5	36.9	37.2	+171	-0.3%	-0.7%	-0.4pp
Matt Boldy MIN LW · vs UTA	Goals	1+	0.47	-0.53	+178UD	—	1+ Goals	35.7	36.0	+180	-0.3%	-0.8%	0
Joel Eriksson Ek MIN C · vs UTA	Assists	0.5	0.49	-0.01	+171UD	-213UD	Over 0.5	36.6	36.9	+173	-0.3%	-0.8%	-2.7pp
Logan Cooley UTA C · vs MIN	Assists	0.5	0.49	-0.01	+125DK	-150UD	Under 0.5	59.5	60.0	-147	-0.5%	-0.8%	-0.8pp
Maxim Shabanov MIN RW · vs UTA	Assists	0.5	0.35	-0.15	+241UD	-313UD	Over 0.5	29.0	29.3	+245	-0.3%	-1.1%	-1.5pp
Mikhail Sergachev UTA D · vs MIN	Goals	1+	0.18	-0.82	+550DK	—	1+ Goals	15.2	15.4	+558	-0.2%	-1.2%	-1.3pp
Blake Coleman MIN LW · vs UTA	Points	0.5	0.45	-0.05	+145DK	-173UD	Under 0.5	62.5	63.4	-167	-0.9%	-1.4%	-0.7pp

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