Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

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Game 4 of 15

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Tue, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

MTL

Montreal Canadiens · 6-3-2

Model 3.2

Proj total 6.4

STL

St. Louis Blues · 5-5-1

Model 3.2

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Enterprise Center

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

MTL ML

Fair +101 · Model 49.8%

+106

Edge +1.3% · EV +2.6%

Kelly ¼: 0.61% of bankroll ($6.10 of $1000)

STL ML

Fair -101 · Model 50.2%

-110

Edge -2.2% · EV -4.2%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Puck Line

MTL +1.5

Fair -255 · Model 71.8%

-250

MGM

Edge +0.4% · EV +0.5%

Kelly ¼: 0.32% of bankroll ($3.25 of $1000)

STL -1.5

Fair +255 · Model 28.2%

+210

Edge -4.1% · EV -12.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 6

Fair +111 · Model 56.2%

-105

UNI

Edge +5.0% · EV +9.8%

Kelly ¼: 2.55% of bankroll ($25.53 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair -111 · Model 52.6%

-124

Edge -2.8% · EV -5.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	MTL ML	STL ML	MTL Puck Line	STL Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	-102	-118	+1.5-258	-1.5+210	o6.5+105	u6.5-125
FanDuel	-110	-110	+1.5-265	-1.5+210	o6.5+102	u6.5-124
BetMGM	-105	-115	+1.5-250	-1.5+200	o6-120	u6+100
Caesars	-103	-115	—	—	o6-121	u6-102
bet365	-105	-115	+1.5-250	-1.5+205	o6.5+104	u6.5-124
BetRivers	+106	-122	+1.5-265	-1.5+205	o6.5+105	u6.5-130
Unibet	-103	-115	+1.5-250	-1.5+205	o6-105	u6-114
Consensus	-105	-115	+1.5-254	-1.5+207	o6.5+104	u6.5-124
Opening Line	-111	-111	-1.5+225	+1.5-286	o6.5+105	u6.5-125

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Model sees a near coin-flip in St. Louis

The projection is essentially even at 3.2-3.2, with a fair total of 6.5 and only a -0.1 projected margin toward Montreal. That makes the total the clearest numbers-based angle, while the side prices show only a small edge to Montreal despite the Canadiens missing Nick Suzuki.

Projected score is 3.2-3.2 with just a 0.1-goal margin, so neither moneyline is a strong separation spot.
Over 6 is the best market edge in the game: 56.2% model probability at -105 for +9.78% EV, versus Under 6.5 showing negative EV.
Montreal has the slightly better record (6-3-2 vs 5-5-1) and better recent form (LWLWW vs STL's LLWWL).
Injuries matter on both sides, but Montreal's list is headlined by Nick Suzuki being out; St. Louis has multiple IR absences including Torey Krug.
Montreal moneyline at +106 carries a modest +2.59% EV, while STL moneyline at -110 is -4.16% EV.

Props to watch

Jordan Binnington Under 24.5 Saves (-109): 57.3% model probability and +9.87% EV, consistent with a balanced game script rather than heavy Montreal shot volume.
Noah Dobson 2+ Goals (+4170): long-shot prop with the biggest listed EV at +180.26, driven by a 6.6% model probability.
Phillip Danault 2+ Goals (+5410): another extreme-price prop with 4.8% model probability and +164.08% EV.

Lean: Over 6

Injury Report

MTL

Nick Suzuki COut · Upper Body
Sam Montembeault GInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Ivan Demidov RWInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Bryce Pickford DInjured Reserve · Undisclosed
Lucas Condotta LWInjured Reserve · Undisclosed

STL

Ross Johnston LWInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Torey Krug DInjured Reserve · Ankle
Dillon Dube CInjured Reserve · Neck
Alexey Toropchenko RWInjured Reserve · Upper Body
Tyler Tucker DInjured Reserve · Knee

Recent Form · Series

MTL

LWLWW

STL

LLWWL

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/27

Game Props

MTL @ STL · Player Props

124 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Noah Dobson MTL D · vs STL	Goals	1+	0.09	-0.91	2+ Goals+4170UD	—	2+ Goals	6.6	2.3	+1424	+4.2%	+180.3%	+0.9pp
Phillip Danault MTL C · vs STL	Goals	1+	0.05	-0.95	2+ Goals+5410UD	—	2+ Goals	4.8	1.8	+1986	+3.0%	+164.1%	+0.7pp
Alexandre Texier MTL LW · vs STL	Goals	1+	0.13	-0.87	2+ Goals+4170UD	—	2+ Goals	3.5	2.3	+2787	+1.1%	+47.9%	0
Mike Matheson MTL D · vs STL	Goals	1+	0.11	-0.89	2+ Goals+5410UD	—	2+ Goals	2.6	1.8	+3725	+0.8%	+44.0%	0
Alexandre Carrier MTL D · vs STL	Goals	1+	0.09	-0.91	+1770UD	—	1+ Goals	6.9	5.3	+1349	+1.6%	+29.0%	0—
Jordan Binnington STL G · vs MTL	Saves	24.5	21.76	-2.74	-113UD	-109UD	Under 24.5	57.3	52.2	-134	+5.2%	+9.9%	0—
Jake Evans MTL C · vs STL	Goals	1+	0.18	-0.82	+750DK	—	1+ Goals	12.9	11.8	+675	+1.1%	+9.7%	-1.6pp
Chris Kreider MTL LW · vs STL	Assists	0.5	0.33	-0.17	+313UD	-390DK	Over 0.5	26.2	24.2	+282	+2.0%	+8.2%	+2.1pp
Connor McMichael STL C · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.43	-0.07	+231UD	-295DK	Over 0.5	31.8	30.2	+214	+1.6%	+5.3%	-1.1pp
Juraj Slafkovsky MTL LW · vs STL	PP Points	1+	0.27	-0.73	+284UD	—	1+ PP Points	27.4	26.0	+265	+1.4%	+5.2%	0—
Jimmy Snuggerud STL RW · vs MTL	Goals	1+	0.4	-0.6	+210UD	—	1+ Goals	33.7	32.3	+197	+1.4%	+4.5%	0
Oliver Kapanen MTL C · vs STL	Points	0.5	0.36	-0.14	+111UD	-136UD	Under 0.5	60.1	57.6	-151	+2.5%	+4.3%	+2.7pp
Josh Anderson MTL RW · vs STL	Goals	1+	0.27	-0.73	+425DK	—	1+ Goals	19.7	19.0	+408	+0.7%	+3.4%	0
Pius Suter STL C · vs MTL	Goals	1+	0.23	-0.77	+475DK	—	1+ Goals	17.8	17.4	+462	+0.4%	+2.4%	+0.7pp
Lane Hutson MTL D · vs STL	Goals	1+	0.2	-0.8	2+ Goals+3160UD	—	2+ Goals	3.1	3.1	+3087	+0.1%	+2.3%	+0.9pp
Kaiden Guhle MTL D · vs STL	Goals	1+	0.13	-0.87	+900DK	—	1+ Goals	10.2	10.0	+880	+0.2%	+2.0%	0
Robert Thomas STL C · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.38	-0.12	-113UD	-109UD	Under 1.5	53.1	52.2	-113	+0.9%	+1.8%	-4.3pp
Oliver Kapanen MTL C · vs STL	Assists	0.5	0.14	-0.36	+225UD	-285DK	Under 0.5	75.2	74.0	-303	+1.2%	+1.6%	+1.8pp
Oliver Kapanen MTL C · vs STL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.63	+0.13	-141UD	+116UD	Under 1.5	46.8	46.3	+114	+0.5%	+1.1%	-5.4pp
Robert Thomas STL C · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.54	+0.04	-115UD	-107UD	Under 0.5	52.2	51.7	-109	+0.5%	+1.0%	-0.5pp
Chris Kreider MTL LW · vs STL	Points	0.5	0.54	+0.04	+156UD	-193UD	Over 0.5	39.4	39.1	+154	+0.3%	+0.9%	+0.9pp
Noah Dobson MTL D · vs STL	Points	0.5	0.45	-0.05	+106UD	-130UD	Under 0.5	57.0	56.5	-133	+0.5%	+0.8%	-2.0pp
Jonatan Berggren STL RW · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.27	-0.23	+109UD	-134UD	Under 1.5	57.7	57.3	-136	+0.4%	+0.8%	0
Adam Jiricek STL D · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.52	+0.02	+129UD	-155DK	Over 1.5	43.9	43.7	+128	+0.2%	+0.5%	0
Dylan Holloway STL LW · vs MTL	Goals	1+	0.33	-0.67	+221UD	—	1+ Goals	31.2	31.2	+221	+0.1%	+0.1%	+0.6pp
Josh Anderson MTL RW · vs STL	Points	0.5	0.42	-0.08	+211UD	-257UD	Over 0.5	32.1	32.2	+212	-0.1%	-0.2%	+1.3pp
Lane Hutson MTL D · vs STL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.72	+0.22	+111UD	-136UD	Over 1.5	47.3	47.4	+111	-0.1%	-0.2%	-3.4pp
Philip Broberg STL D · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.35	-0.15	+180DK	-213UD	Under 0.5	67.9	68.1	-212	-0.1%	-0.2%	+2.1pp
Jake Neighbours STL LW · vs MTL	PP Points	1+	0.17	-0.83	+396UD	—	1+ PP Points	20.1	20.2	+398	-0.1%	-0.3%	0—
Cole Caufield MTL RW · vs STL	Shots on Goal	3.5	3.22	-0.28	+130DK	-148UD	Under 3.5	59.5	59.7	-147	-0.2%	-0.3%	-8.9pp
Pavel Buchnevich STL LW · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.69	+0.19	+105UD	-129UD	Over 1.5	48.5	48.8	+106	-0.3%	-0.6%	+1.0pp
Connor McMichael STL C · vs MTL	Points	0.5	0.61	+0.11	+131UD	-162UD	Over 0.5	42.9	43.3	+133	-0.4%	-0.9%	0
Jimmy Snuggerud STL RW · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.32	-0.18	+164UD	-195DK	Under 0.5	65.5	66.1	-190	-0.6%	-0.9%	+0.9pp
Philip Broberg STL D · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.58	+0.08	-124UD	+100UD	Under 1.5	49.5	50.0	+102	-0.5%	-1.0%	-6.2pp
Colton Parayko STL D · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.4	-0.1	+100UD	-124UD	Under 1.5	54.8	55.4	-121	-0.6%	-1.0%	-3.5pp
Cam Fowler STL D · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.34	-0.16	+215DK	-250UD	Under 0.5	70.7	71.4	-241	-0.7%	-1.0%	-2.1pp
Robert Thomas STL C · vs MTL	Points	0.5	0.81	+0.31	-193UD	+145DK	Under 0.5	40.4	40.8	+148	-0.4%	-1.0%	+1.4pp
Josh Anderson MTL RW · vs STL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.67	+0.17	+114UD	-139UD	Over 1.5	46.2	46.7	+116	-0.5%	-1.1%	0
Noah Dobson MTL D · vs STL	Assists	0.5	0.37	-0.13	+156UD	-193UD	Under 0.5	65.0	65.9	-186	-0.9%	-1.3%	-1.8pp
Jonatan Berggren STL RW · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.27	-0.23	+311UD	-417UD	Over 0.5	24.0	24.3	+317	-0.3%	-1.4%	-0.5pp

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