NBA Edge Terminal
Model projections vs the best price across your sportsbooks · edge % · expected value · line movement — refreshed continuously.
Games: Team ratings (PF/PA per game, prior season regressed + current season) → normal win/cover/over probabilities, blended 45% model / 55% no-vig market. Props: Per-game player rates (prior season blended with current) → Poisson/normal over probabilities, blended 35% model / 65% no-vig market. Unpriced lines assume -110.
Today's Games
20 games · tap a game for its full research view — markets by book, every player prop, AI read
Best +EV Right Now
261 positive-EV opportunities · 30 game markets · 231 player props · best price across all books · ranked by EV
| Tier | Market / Player | Type | Game | Model Proj | Best Odds | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ELITE | LAC ML Moneyline | game | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Win 32.0% | +320UNI | 32.0 | 23.8 | +213 | +8.2% | +34.4% | 0 | |
ELITE | ![]() Dylan Harper Rebounds · Under 4.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 3.72 | +124UD | 54.8 | 44.6 | -121 | +10.2% | +22.8% | -1.2pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Amen Thompson Assists · Over 4.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 5.2 | +135UD | 51.2 | 42.6 | -105 | +8.7% | +20.3% | -0.5pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Rui Hachimura Points · Under 16.5 | prop | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 11.34 | +113UD | 55.6 | 46.9 | -125 | +8.7% | +18.5% | +1 | |
ELITE | ![]() Tim Hardaway Jr. Points · Over 7.5 | prop | DET @ MIA Fri 7:00 PM CT | Proj 12.53 | -125UD | 65.7 | 55.6 | -192 | +10.2% | +18.3% | 0— | |
ELITE | ![]() De'Aaron Fox PRA · Over 23.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 28.44 | +102UD | 58.5 | 49.5 | -141 | +9.0% | +18.2% | -1 | |
ELITE | ![]() Jalen Smith Points · Under 12.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 10.64 | +104UD | 57.8 | 49.0 | -137 | +8.8% | +17.9% | +0.6pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Collin Sexton Points · Over 10.5 | prop | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 15.44 | +101UD | 58.4 | 49.8 | -140 | +8.7% | +17.4% | -2.1pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Neemias Queta Points · Over 7.5 | prop | NY @ BOS Fri 6:00 PM CT | Proj 9.56 | -110UD | 61.2 | 52.4 | -158 | +8.8% | +16.8% | +3.0pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Rui Hachimura PRA · Under 24.5 | prop | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 16.03 | -102UD | 58.8 | 50.5 | -143 | +8.3% | +16.4% | +2 | |
ELITE | ![]() Marcus Smart Points · Over 7.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 9.4 | -103UD | 58.8 | 50.7 | -143 | +8.1% | +15.9% | +0.6pp | |
ELITE | ![]() De'Aaron Fox Assists · Over 5.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 6.26 | +134UD | 49.3 | 42.7 | +103 | +6.6% | +15.4% | -1.5pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Jalen Smith Rebounds · Under 7.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 6.82 | +121UD | 52.1 | 45.2 | -109 | +6.8% | +15.1% | -1.2pp | |
ELITE | LAC +9.5 Spread | game | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Fair +2.5 | -106FD | 59.2 | 51.5 | -145 | +7.7% | +15.0% | +1 | |
ELITE | ![]() De'Aaron Fox Points · Over 14.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 18.14 | -102UD | 58.0 | 50.5 | -138 | +7.5% | +14.9% | +2.2pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Tyler Herro Rebounds · Over 3.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 4.53 | -150UD | 68.8 | 60.0 | -221 | +8.8% | +14.7% | -0.4pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Kyle Kuzma Points · Over 10.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 12.26 | -118UD | 61.9 | 54.1 | -162 | +7.8% | +14.4% | -1 | |
ELITE | ![]() Franz Wagner Assists · Under 5.5 | prop | MIN @ ORL Fri 6:00 PM CT | Proj 3.48 | -150UD | 68.6 | 60.0 | -219 | +8.6% | +14.3% | -1 | |
ELITE | ![]() Tre Jones Points · Over 8.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 13.97 | -108UD | 59.3 | 51.9 | -146 | +7.4% | +14.2% | +2.0pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Leonard Miller PRA · Under 16.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 12.5 | -104UD | 58.2 | 51.0 | -139 | +7.2% | +14.2% | -0.7pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Sandro Mamukelashvili Points · Over 7.5 | prop | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 10.6 | -139UD | 66.4 | 58.2 | -197 | +8.2% | +14.1% | -3.9pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Tre Jones PRA · Over 14.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 21.99 | -113UD | 60.5 | 53.1 | -153 | +7.5% | +14.0% | 0— | |
ELITE | ![]() Quentin Grimes PRA · Over 15.5 | prop | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 19.92 | -107UD | 58.9 | 51.7 | -143 | +7.2% | +13.9% | +1.9pp | |
ELITE | CHA +3 Spread | game | ATL @ CHA Fri 6:00 PM CT | Fair -4 | -105CZR | 58.3 | 51.2 | -140 | +7.1% | +13.8% | +1 | |
ELITE | CHA ML Moneyline | game | ATL @ CHA Fri 6:00 PM CT | Win 50.8% | +124DK | 50.8 | 44.6 | -103 | +6.2% | +13.8% | -2.1pp |
Moneyline · Spread · Total
Model win / cover / over probability vs the best price across all books · fair odds · edge % · tap a game to research it
| Time | Matchup | Proj Score · Total | Best ML · Model % | Fair ML | ML Edge | Spread · Cover % | Fair Line | ATS Edge | Total O / U | Total Edge | Best Bet | Line Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fri 3:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 115.1 118.3 | -104BR45.9% +100MGM54.1% | +118 -118 | -5.1% +4.1% | -1-110CZR44.1% +1.5-11336557.5% | MIL -3 | -8.3% +4.5% | o237.5-110FD46.5% u237.5-105DK53.5% | -5.9% +2.3% | MIL +1.5 365 +8.4% | ML-1.1ppSPR+3TOT-2 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 109.3 112.3 | +120DK41.9% -130CZR58.1% | +139 -139 | -3.5% +1.6% | +2.5-111UNI49.7% -1.5-117BR53.6% | BOS -3 | -2.9% -0.3% | o223.5-106UNI48.1% u224.5-109BR54.1% | -3.4% +1.9% | Under 224.5 BR +3.7% | ML+1.2ppSPR-1.1ppTOT0 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 113.7 117.5 | -142FD49.2% +124DK50.8% | +103 -103 | -9.5% +6.2% | -2.5-111UNI43.1% +3-105CZR58.3% | CHA -4 | -9.5% +7.1% | o225.5-11036555.7% u226.5-110FD46.4% | +3.3% -6.0% | CHA +3 CZR +13.8% | ML-2.1ppSPR+1TOT-1 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 116.5 118.2 | +190DK38% -215FD62% | +163 -163 | +3.5% -6.3% | +6.5-110DK56.9% -6.5-102UNI43.1% | IND -2 | +4.5% -7.4% | o237.5-107BR47% u238-110CZR54.1% | -4.7% +1.7% | DAL ML DK +10.2% | ML+2.4ppSPR-1TOT+3 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 117.1 116.2 | -125DK53.1% +108FD46.9% | -113 +113 | -2.5% -1.2% | -1.5-110DK49.1% +1.5-105FD50.9% | ORL +1 | -3.3% -0.3% | o234.5-113BR49.5% u236.5-115FD54.9% | -3.5% +1.4% | Under 236.5 FD +2.6% | ML-1.5ppSPR0TOT-2 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 120.5 112.2 | -230FD71.4% +220BR28.6% | -250 +250 | +1.7% -2.6% | -6.5-105UNI52.7% +5.5+116BR44% | WSH +8.5 | +1.5% -2.3% | o235.5-109BR47.8% u236.5-110MGM54.4% | -4.4% +2.0% | Under 236.5 MGM +3.9% | ML-5.8ppSPR+2TOT+1 | |
Fri 7:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 118.6 115.7 | -106UNI54.3% -104FD45.7% | -119 +119 | +2.8% -5.3% | +1.5-118DK57.4% +1.5-115FD52.3% | MIA +3 | +3.3% -1.2% | o236.5-110FD49.6% u237.5-105DK52.6% | -2.8% +1.4% | DET +1.5 DK +6.0% | ML-3.3ppSPR-2.8ppTOT+3 | |
Fri 8:30 PM CT Draft Kings | 112.3 115.1 | +17536537.9% -200FD62.1% | +164 -164 | +1.5% -4.6% | +5.5-105CZR54.2% -5.5-105UNI45.8% | SA -3 | +3.0% -5.4% | o226.5-110FD52.3% u228.5-113BR52.1% | -0.1% -0.9% | HOU +5.5 CZR +5.8% | ML-1.9ppSPR-2.2ppTOT+2 | |
Fri 8:30 PM CT Draft Kings | 121.4 120.5 | +11336549% -130DK51% | +104 -104 | +2.0% -5.5% | +2-105CZR54% -1.5-111UNI47.6% | UTAH +1 | +2.8% -5.0% | o239.5+106BR50.9% u239.5-115FD49.1% | +2.4% -4.4% | NO +2 CZR +5.4% | ML-10.2ppSPR+3TOT-3 | |
Fri 9:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 114.5 118.2 | +130DK40% -137BR60% | +150 -150 | -3.5% +2.2% | +3.5-110DK49.7% -3.5+105BR50.3% | GS -3.5 | -2.7% +1.5% | o234.5-110CZR49.4% u235.5-110DK52.8% | -3.0% +0.4% | GS ML BR +3.8% | ML0SPR0TOT0 | |
Fri 9:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 112.4 115.0 | +320UNI32% -375MGM68% | +213 -213 | +8.2% -10.9% | +9.5-106FD59.2% -8.5-118DK43.7% | LAL -2.5 | +7.7% -10.4% | o228.5-110DK48.9% u229.5-114BR53.3% | -3.5% +0.0% | LAC ML UNI +34.4% | ML0SPR+1TOT-1 | |
Fri 9:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 118.4 111.5 | -303UNI72.6% +260DK27.4% | -265 +265 | -2.6% -0.4% | -7.5-110UNI50.1% +8.5-113BR53.2% | SAC +7 | -2.3% +0.2% | o232.5-106UNI47.2% u232.5-108FD52.8% | -4.3% +0.9% | Under 232.5 FD +1.7% | ML-6.5ppSPR+1TOT+0.7pp | |
Sat 5:00 PM CT No line | 113.9 119.3 | — — | +206 -206 | — — | — — | CHA -5.5 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 6:30 PM CT No line | 107.7 118.6 | — — | +457 -457 | — — | — — | CLE -11 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 6:30 PM CT No line | 110.5 117.8 | — — | +265 -265 | — — | — — | PHI -7 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 7:00 PM CT No line | 118.0 121.8 | — — | +168 -168 | — — | — — | CHI -4 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 7:00 PM CT No line | 119.6 113.1 | — — | -240 +240 | — — | — — | DAL +6.5 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 7:30 PM CT No line | 115.5 115.6 | — — | -100 -100 | — — | — — | ATL 0 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 8:00 PM CT No line | 114.5 122.3 | — — | +292 -292 | — — | — — | DEN -8 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 9:00 PM CT No line | 111.0 113.6 | — — | +141 -141 | — — | — — | PHX -2.5 | — — | — — | — — | — |
Projection vs Market
376 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · * unpriced lines use standard -110 · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No player props posted for this slate yet. Books usually post them on game day, so check back closer to start time. | |||||||||||||||
Line Movement Tracker
Opening → current · 107 up · 118 down · snapshots stored every refresh
| Market | Selection | Open | Current | Price | Δ | Δ Implied | Trend | Move Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
gameMoneyline | UTAH ML NO @ UTAH | -205 | -130 | -130 | -10.2pp | -10.2pp | 32 snapshots | 4.08 |
propPoints | A. Drummond Points NY @ BOS | 7.5 | 5.5 | -140 | -2 | line moved | 31 snapshots | 4 |
propThrees | D. Schroder Threes ATL @ CHA | 1.5 | 1.5 | +180 | -8.8pp | -8.8pp | 2 snapshots | 3.52 |
gameTotal | O/U 238.5 NO @ UTAH | 241.5 | 238.5 | -108 | -3 | line moved | 35 snapshots | 3 |
gameSpread | UTAH -2.5 NO @ UTAH | -5.5 | -2.5 | -105 | +3 | line moved | 33 snapshots | 3 |
gameTotal | O/U 237.5 DET @ MIA | 234.5 | 237.5 | -115 | +3 | line moved | 35 snapshots | 3 |
gameTotal | O/U 237.5 DAL @ IND | 234.5 | 237.5 | -108 | +3 | line moved | 34 snapshots | 3 |
gameSpread | MIL +1.5 CHI @ MIL | -1.5 | 1.5 | -115 | +3 | line moved | 35 snapshots | 3 |
propAssists | L. Doncic Assists LAC @ LAL | 7.5 | 7.5 | +109 | -7.0pp | -7.0pp | 10 snapshots | 2.82 |
propRebounds | P. George Rebounds NY @ BOS | 4.5 | 4.5 | -111 | +6.9pp | +6.9pp | 30 snapshots | 2.74 |
propPoints | A. Thompson Points HOU @ SA | 17.5 | 15.5 | -118 | -2 | line moved | 15 snapshots | 2.58 |
gameMoneyline | SAC ML POR @ SAC | +190 | +260 | +260 | -6.5pp | -6.5pp | 31 snapshots | 2.58 |
propRebounds | J. Tatum Rebounds NY @ BOS | 8.5 | 8.5 | -125 | +6.1pp | +6.1pp | 28 snapshots | 2.43 |
propRebounds | S. Mamukelashvili Rebounds LAC @ LAL | 4.5 | 4.5 | -146 | +5.8pp | +5.8pp | 8 snapshots | 2.32 |
gameMoneyline | WSH ML TOR @ WSH | +154 | +200 | +200 | -5.8pp | -5.8pp | 33 snapshots | 2.32 |
propPoints | C. Wilson Points CHI @ MIL | 15.5 | 17.5 | -106 | +2 | line moved | 12 snapshots | 2.29 |
propThrees | D. Robinson Threes DET @ MIA | 2.5 | 2.5 | -117 | -5.6pp | -5.6pp | 15 snapshots | 2.25 |
propPoints | A. Sengun Points HOU @ SA | 20.5 | 18.5 | -110 | -2 | line moved | 16 snapshots | 2.16 |
propThrees | J. Hart Threes NY @ BOS | 1.5 | 1.5 | -112 | +5.1pp | +5.1pp | 28 snapshots | 2.02 |
propThrees | S. Mamukelashvili Threes LAC @ LAL | 0.5 | 1.5 | +159 | +1 | line moved | 8 snapshots | 2 |
propAssists | W. Kessler Assists LAC @ LAL | 2.5 | 1.5 | -187 | -1 | line moved | 6 snapshots | 2 |
propPoints | Z. Williams Points LAC @ LAL | 8.5 | 7.5 | -116 | -1 | line moved | 8 snapshots | 2 |
propThrees | T. Eason Threes HOU @ SA | 0.5 | 1.5 | +171 | +1 | line moved | 5 snapshots | 2 |
propAssists | V. Wembanyama Assists HOU @ SA | 2.5 | 3.5 | +121 | +1 | line moved | 11 snapshots | 2 |
propThrees | C. Cunningham Threes DET @ MIA | 1.5 | 2.5 | +142 | +1 | line moved | 13 snapshots | 2 |
Team Power Ratings
Model offense / defense in pts per game vs league average (115.61) · 2027 season, prior season regressed in
| # | Team | Record | Net pts/g | Off | Def | Win% vs Avg | L10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2-0 | +7.68 | +1.15 | +6.53 | 73.9% | 2-0 | W2 | |
| 2 | 1-0 | +5.43 | +1.59 | +3.84 | 67.5% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 3 | 0-1 | +4.57 | +2.06 | +2.51 | 64.8% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 4 | 0-1 | +4.38 | -0.59 | +4.97 | 64.3% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 5 | 1-0 | +4.09 | +0.36 | +3.73 | 63.3% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 6 | 1-0 | +3.80 | +0.32 | +3.48 | 62.4% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 7 | 0-1 | +3.63 | -0.22 | +3.85 | 61.9% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 8 | 1-0 | +3.32 | -0.02 | +3.34 | 60.9% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 9 | 1-0 | +3.27 | +2.21 | +1.05 | 60.7% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 10 | 0-1 | +2.62 | +2.50 | +0.12 | 58.6% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 11 | 0-1 | +2.16 | +1.96 | +0.20 | 57.1% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 12 | 1-0 | +2.14 | +1.00 | +1.15 | 57.1% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 13 | 1-0 | +1.89 | -0.88 | +2.77 | 56.3% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 14 | 1-0 | +1.83 | +2.55 | -0.72 | 56.1% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 15 | 1-0 | +1.77 | +0.32 | +1.45 | 55.9% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 16 | 2-0 | +0.53 | -0.35 | +0.88 | 51.8% | 2-0 | W2 | |
| 17 | 0-1 | +0.25 | +2.80 | -2.55 | 50.8% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 18 | 0-1 | +0.06 | +0.53 | -0.47 | 50.2% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 19 | 0-1 | -1.05 | -3.42 | +2.38 | 46.5% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 20 | 0-1 | -1.39 | -1.12 | -0.27 | 45.4% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 21 | 1-0 | -2.77 | -0.23 | -2.54 | 40.9% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 22 | 0-1 | -2.93 | +0.16 | -3.09 | 40.4% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 23 | 0-1 | -4.27 | -1.19 | -3.08 | 36.1% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 24 | 0-1 | -4.41 | -3.06 | -1.35 | 35.6% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 25 | 1-0 | -4.80 | -1.62 | -3.19 | 34.5% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 26 | 0-1 | -5.27 | -0.69 | -4.58 | 33% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 27 | 0-1 | -6.18 | +0.62 | -6.79 | 30.3% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 28 | 0-1 | -6.52 | -6.59 | +0.08 | 29.4% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 29 | 1-0 | -6.84 | -1.08 | -5.76 | 28.4% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 30 | 0-1 | -7.38 | -3.79 | -3.60 | 26.9% | 0-1 | L1 |















