Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

Fri, Oct 23 · 9:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

MEM

Memphis Grizzlies · 1-0

Model 114.5 · ESPN 43.9%

Proj total 232.7

Golden State Warriors · 0-1

Model 118.2 · ESPN 56.1%

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Chase Center

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

MEM ML

Fair +150 · Model 40.0%

+130

Edge -3.5% · EV -8.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

GS ML

Fair -150 · Model 60.0%

-137

Edge +2.2% · EV +3.8%

Kelly ¼: 1.30% of bankroll ($13.00 of $1000)

Spread

MEM +3.5

Fair +101 · Model 49.7%

-110

Edge -2.7% · EV -5.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

GS -3.5

Fair -101 · Model 50.3%

+105

Edge +1.5% · EV +3.1%

Kelly ¼: 0.74% of bankroll ($7.42 of $1000)

Total

Over 234.5

Fair +112 · Model 49.4%

-110

CZR

Edge -3.0% · EV -5.7%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 235.5

Fair -112 · Model 52.8%

-110

Edge +0.4% · EV +0.8%

Kelly ¼: 0.22% of bankroll ($2.20 of $1000)

Line shopping · every book

Book	MEM ML	GS ML	MEM Spread	GS Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	+130	-155	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	o235.5-110	u235.5-110
FanDuel	+118	-138	+3.5-118	-3.5-104	o235.5-105	u235.5-115
BetMGM	+125	-155	+3.5-118	-3.5-102	o234.5-115	u234.5-105
Caesars	+126	-150	+3-110	-3-110	o234.5-110	u234.5-110
bet365	+125	-150	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	o235.5-108	u235.5-112
BetRivers	+112	-137	+3.5-130	-3.5+105	o235.5-108	u235.5-113
Unibet	+120	-143	+2.5-105	-2.5-114	o234.5-111	u234.5-105
Consensus	+125	-155	+3.5-117	-3.5-104	o235-110	u235-110
Opening Line	+136	-162	+4.5-116	-4.5-105	o235.5-111	u235.5-116

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Warriors slight home edge, total near fair

Golden State projects as a modest home favorite in a game the model pegs at 118.2-114.5, almost exactly lining up with the current spread and just below the posted total. The clearest numerical edge is on the Warriors moneyline, while the total looks close to efficient with only a small lean to the under.

Model makes GS -3.5 with a 3.7-point projected margin, matching the market closely; GS moneyline still shows the better edge at 60.0% win probability and +3.8% EV.
Projected total is 232.7 versus fair total 232.5, so Under 235.5 has only a thin edge at 52.8% model probability and +0.8% EV.
Golden State has more notable absences listed: Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, and Jimmy Butler III are out, while Brandin Podziemski and Charles Bassey are day-to-day.
Memphis enters 1-0 and 4-1 over its last five, while Golden State is 0-1 and 3-2 over its last five; recent form is slightly stronger on the Grizzlies' side.
ESPN win probability is a bit lower on GS than the model, 56.1% versus 60.0%, which supports the Warriors ML more than the spread.

Lean: GS ML

Injury Report

MEM

Cedric Coward FDay-To-Day · Wrist
Isaiah Stewart CDay-To-Day · Ankle

Charles Bassey CDay-To-Day · Knee
Brandin Podziemski GDay-To-Day · Back
Kristaps Porzingis COut · Illness
Moses Moody GOut · Knee
Jimmy Butler III FOut · Knee

Recent Form · Series

MEM

WLWWW

LWWWL

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/23

Game Props

MEM @ GS · Player Props

0 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Status	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move	Slip
No player props posted for this slate yet. Books usually post them on game day, so check back closer to start time.

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