NBA Terminal
Game 7 of 20
CHI @ MIL
Fri 3:00 PM CT
NY @ BOS
Fri 6:00 PM CT
ATL @ CHA
Fri 6:00 PM CT
DAL @ IND
Fri 6:00 PM CT
MIN @ ORL
Fri 6:00 PM CT
TOR @ WSH
Fri 6:00 PM CT
DET @ MIA
Fri 7:00 PM CT
HOU @ SA
Fri 8:30 PM CT
NO @ UTAH
Fri 8:30 PM CT
MEM @ GS
Fri 9:00 PM CT
LAC @ LAL
Fri 9:00 PM CT
POR @ SAC
Fri 9:00 PM CTMIA @ CHASat 5:00 PM CT
BKN @ CLE
Sat 6:30 PM CTMIL @ PHI
Sat 6:30 PM CTWSH @ CHISat 7:00 PM CTSA @ DALSat 7:00 PM CTHOU @ ATLSat 7:30 PM CTNO @ DEN
Sat 8:00 PM CTGS @ PHX
Sat 9:00 PM CTFri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds
DET
Detroit Pistons · 1-0
Model 118.6 · ESPN 53.8%
@
Proj total 234.3
MIA
Miami Heat · 0-1
Model 115.7 · ESPN 46.2%
No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Kaseya Center
Markets
Moneyline · Spread · Total
Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line
Moneyline
DET ML
Fair -119 · Model 54.3%
-110
DKEdge +1.9% · EV +3.7%
Kelly ¼: 1.01% of bankroll ($10.07 of $1000)
MIA ML
Fair +119 · Model 45.7%
-104
FDEdge -5.3% · EV -10.4%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Spread
DET +1.5
Fair -135 · Model 57.4%
-118
DKEdge +3.3% · EV +6.0%
Kelly ¼: 1.78% of bankroll ($17.83 of $1000)
MIA +1.5
Fair +135 · Model 52.3%
-115
FDEdge -1.2% · EV -2.3%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Total
Over 236.5
Fair +116 · Model 48.4%
-110
FDEdge -4.0% · EV -7.6%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Under 236.5
Fair -116 · Model 51.6%
-105
MGMEdge +0.4% · EV +0.8%
Kelly ¼: 0.20% of bankroll ($1.95 of $1000)
Line shopping · every book
| Book | DET ML | MIA ML | DET Spread | MIA Spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 | — | — | o237.5-105 | u237.5-115 |
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 | -1.5-105 | +1.5-115 | o236.5-110 | u236.5-110 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 | -1.5-102 | +1.5-118 | o236.5-115 | u236.5-105 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 | -1-105 | +1-115 | o236.5-110 | u236.5-110 |
| bet365 | -111 | -109 | -1.5-105 | +1.5-115 | o236.5-110 | u236.5-110 |
| BetRivers | -115 | -108 | -0.5-115 | +0.5-108 | o236.5-112 | u236.5-109 |
| Unibet | -110 | -110 | — | — | o236.5-110 | u236.5-106 |
| Consensus | -110 | -110 | -1.5-105 | +1.5-115 | o236.5-115 | u236.5-110 |
| Opening Line | +105 | -125 | +2.5-116 | -2.5-105 | o235.5-111 | u235.5-116 |
Game Props
DET @ MIA · Player Props
53 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Hardaway Jr. MIA G · vs DET | Points | 8.5 | 12.53 | +4.03 | o7.5-125UD | -103DK | Over 7.5 | 65.3 | 55.6 | -188 | +9.8% | +17.6% | -0.4pp | ||
 Ausar Thompson DET G · vs MIA | Assists | 4.5 | 3.29 | -1.21 | +108DK | -125UD | Under 4.5 | 63.0 | 55.6 | -170 | +7.4% | +13.4% | -0.2pp | ||
 Andrew Wiggins MIA F · vs DET | Points | 13.5 | 14.97 | +1.47 | o12.5-127UD | -112DK | Over 12.5 | 62.7 | 55.9 | -168 | +6.7% | +12.0% | +0.3pp | ||
 Duncan Robinson DET F · vs MIA | Points | 10.5 | 13 | +2.5 | -114UD | -108DK | Over 10.5 | 59.0 | 53.3 | -144 | +5.7% | +10.8% | -1 | ||
Andrew Wiggins MIA F · vs DET | PRA | 19.5 | 22.07 | +2.57 | -108UD | -107DK | Over 19.5 | 57.3 | 51.9 | -134 | +5.4% | +10.4% | +0.8pp | ||
Duncan Robinson DET F · vs MIA | PRA | 14.5 | 17.66 | +3.16 | -122UD | +100UD | Over 14.5 | 60.3 | 55.0 | -152 | +5.3% | +9.7% | -1 | ||
 Bobby Portis MIA F · vs DET | Points | 10.5 | 13.05 | +2.55 | -105DK | -115UD | Over 10.5 | 56.2 | 51.2 | -128 | +5.0% | +9.7% | +0.8pp | ||
Ausar Thompson DET G · vs MIA | PRA | 21.5 | 19.48 | -2.02 | -117DK | -102UD | Under 21.5 | 55.4 | 50.5 | -124 | +4.9% | +9.7% | -1 | ||
 Bam Adebayo MIA C · vs DET | Points | 17.5 | 19.65 | +2.15 | o19.5+169UD | -120DK | Over 19.5 | 40.8 | 37.2 | +145 | +3.6% | +9.7% | +1 | ||
Duncan Robinson DET F · vs MIA | Threes | 2.5 | 3.05 | +0.55 | +105UD | -113DK | Over 2.5 | 53.4 | 48.8 | -115 | +4.6% | +9.5% | -5.6pp | ||
 Pelle Larsson MIA G · vs DET | Assists | 3.5 | 3.43 | -0.07 | o2.5-179UD | -171DK | Over 2.5 | 70.1 | 64.2 | -234 | +5.9% | +9.2% | +1 | ||
Pelle Larsson MIA G · vs DET | Points | 8.5 | 10.57 | +2.07 | -120DK | +104UD | Over 8.5 | 59.5 | 54.5 | -147 | +5.0% | +9.1% | +0.2pp | ||
 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA F · vs DET | Assists | 5.5 | 5.04 | -0.46 | -131DK | +111UD | Under 5.5 | 51.2 | 47.4 | -105 | +3.8% | +8.0% | +1.4pp | ||
Pelle Larsson MIA G · vs DET | PRA | 14.5 | 17.44 | +2.94 | -125DK | +102UD | Over 14.5 | 60.0 | 55.6 | -150 | +4.4% | +8.0% | +0.2pp | ||
Duncan Robinson DET F · vs MIA | Rebounds | 2.5 | 2.6 | +0.1 | +138UD | -170UD | Over 2.5 | 45.0 | 42.0 | +122 | +3.0% | +7.1% | +0.9pp | ||
Bobby Portis MIA F · vs DET | Threes | 1.5 | 1.92 | +0.42 | +114UD | -136DK | Over 1.5 | 49.9 | 46.7 | +100 | +3.2% | +6.8% | -1.3pp | ||
 Jalen Duren DET C · vs MIA | Points | 17.5 | 19.73 | +2.23 | -103DK | -112UD | Over 17.5 | 53.7 | 50.7 | -116 | +3.0% | +5.8% | +1 | ||
Pelle Larsson MIA G · vs DET | Rebounds | 2.5 | 3.44 | +0.94 | -127UD | +104UD | Over 2.5 | 59.1 | 55.9 | -144 | +3.1% | +5.6% | 0— | ||
Jalen Duren DET C · vs MIA | PRA | 29.5 | 32 | +2.5 | -108UD | -112DK | Over 29.5 | 54.6 | 51.9 | -120 | +2.7% | +5.2% | +0.7pp | ||
Bobby Portis MIA F · vs DET | Rebounds | 5.5 | 6.17 | +0.67 | +105DK | -125UD | Over 5.5 | 51.3 | 48.8 | -105 | +2.5% | +5.2% | -0.3pp | ||
 Klay Thompson MIA G · vs DET | Threes | 2.5 | 2.93 | +0.43 | -105UD | -104DK | Over 2.5 | 53.7 | 51.2 | -116 | +2.5% | +4.8% | +0.3pp | ||
Bam Adebayo MIA C · vs DET | PRA | 29.5 | 32.65 | +3.15 | -117UD | -106UD | Over 29.5 | 56.0 | 53.9 | -127 | +2.1% | +3.9% | +3.0pp | ||
Andrew Wiggins MIA F · vs DET | Rebounds | 3.5 | 4.58 | +1.08 | -155DK | u4.5-148UD | Over 3.5 | 63.1 | 60.8 | -171 | +2.3% | +3.8% | +1.8pp | ||
 Cade Cunningham DET G · vs MIA | Assists | 9.5 | 9.73 | +0.23 | +105UD | -125DK | Over 9.5 | 49.6 | 48.8 | +102 | +0.8% | +1.7% | +0.2pp | ||
Klay Thompson MIA G · vs DET | Points | 10.5 | 11.58 | +1.08 | -117DK | -103UD | Over 10.5 | 54.8 | 53.9 | -121 | +0.9% | +1.6% | +0.2pp | ||
Cade Cunningham DET G · vs MIA | Rebounds | 4.5 | 5.41 | +0.91 | -141DK | u5.5-152UD | Over 4.5 | 59.4 | 58.5 | -146 | +0.9% | +1.5% | +1.6pp | ||
 John Collins DET F · vs MIA | Points | 12.5 | 12.86 | +0.36 | +102UD | -122DK | Over 12.5 | 50.1 | 49.5 | -100 | +0.6% | +1.2% | -1 | ||
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA F · vs DET | PRA | 45.5 | 42.73 | -2.77 | -112UD | -110DK | Under 45.5 | 52.9 | 52.4 | -112 | +0.5% | +1.0% | +0.4pp | ||
Cade Cunningham DET G · vs MIA | PRA | 38.5 | 38.89 | +0.39 | -105UD | -107DK | Over 38.5 | 51.6 | 51.2 | -107 | +0.4% | +0.7% | -1 | ||
John Collins DET F · vs MIA | PRA | 19.5 | 19.17 | -0.33 | o18.5-124UD | -127DK | Over 18.5 | 55.7 | 55.4 | -126 | +0.3% | +0.6% | -4.3pp | ||
Bam Adebayo MIA C · vs DET | Rebounds | 8.5 | 9.75 | +1.25 | -130DK | +116UD | Over 8.5 | 56.8 | 56.5 | -131 | +0.3% | +0.5% | +2.7pp | ||
 Davion Mitchell MIA G · vs DET | Assists | 6.5 | 6.88 | +0.38 | -105UD | -118UD | Over 6.5 | 51.4 | 51.2 | -106 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +1.5pp | ||
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA F · vs DET | Rebounds | 10.5 | 9.43 | -1.07 | +102UD | -125UD | Under 10.5 | 55.7 | 55.6 | -126 | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.8pp | ||
John Collins DET F · vs MIA | Threes | 0.5 | 1.17 | +0.67 | -170UD | +145DK | Over 0.5 | 63.0 | 63.0 | -170 | +0.0% | +0.1% | +1.3pp | ||
Andrew Wiggins MIA F · vs DET | Threes | 1.5 | 1.94 | +0.44 | -152DK | +131UD | Under 1.5 | 43.1 | 43.3 | +132 | -0.2% | -0.4% | 0 | ||
Cade Cunningham DET G · vs MIA | Threes | 2.5 | 1.87 | -0.63 | +157UD | -188DK | Under 2.5 | 64.8 | 65.3 | -184 | -0.5% | -0.7% | +1 | ||
Andrew Wiggins MIA F · vs DET | Assists | 1.5 | 2.52 | +1.02 | -167DK | +126DK | Over 1.5 | 61.8 | 62.5 | -162 | -0.8% | -1.2% | -1.0pp | ||
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA F · vs DET | Points | 28.5 | 28.26 | -0.24 | -117DK | u29.5-124UD | Under 29.5 | 54.6 | 55.4 | -120 | -0.8% | -1.4% | -1.0pp | ||
Bam Adebayo MIA C · vs DET | Threes | 1.5 | 1.67 | +0.17 | -110DK | -106UD | Under 1.5 | 50.7 | 51.5 | -103 | -0.8% | -1.5% | 0— | ||
John Collins DET F · vs MIA | Rebounds | 5.5 | 5.29 | -0.21 | +113UD | -133DK | Over 5.5 | 46.2 | 46.9 | +116 | -0.8% | -1.6% | +0.9pp |
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