Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

Fri, Oct 23 · 8:30 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

HOU

Houston Rockets · 1-0

Model 112.3 · ESPN 28.3%

Proj total 227.4

San Antonio Spurs · 0-1

Model 115.1 · ESPN 71.7%

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Moody Center

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

HOU ML

Fair +164 · Model 37.9%

+175

365

Edge +1.5% · EV +4.2%

Kelly ¼: 0.60% of bankroll ($6.04 of $1000)

SA ML

Fair -164 · Model 62.1%

-200

Edge -4.6% · EV -6.8%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Spread

HOU +5.5

Fair -119 · Model 54.2%

-105

CZR

Edge +3.0% · EV +5.8%

Kelly ¼: 1.53% of bankroll ($15.28 of $1000)

SA -5.5

Fair +119 · Model 45.8%

-105

UNI

Edge -5.4% · EV -10.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 226.5

Fair -101 · Model 52.3%

-110

Edge -0.1% · EV -0.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 228.5

Fair +101 · Model 52.1%

-113

Edge -0.9% · EV -1.8%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	HOU ML	SA ML	HOU Spread	SA Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	+170	-205	+5.5-112	-5.5-108	o227.5-112	u227.5-108
FanDuel	+172	-200	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	o226.5-110	u226.5-110
BetMGM	+170	-210	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	o227.5-110	u227.5-110
Caesars	+170	-205	+5.5-105	-5.5-115	o228-110	u228-110
bet365	+175	-210	+5.5-111	-5.5-109	o227.5-111	u227.5-109
BetRivers	+170	-215	+5.5-113	-5.5-110	o228.5-108	u228.5-113
Unibet	+170	-200	+5.5-111	-5.5-105	o227.5-111	u227.5-105
Consensus	+170	-210	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	o227.5-110	u227.5-110
Opening Line	+195	-237	+6.5-109	-6.5-110	o225.5-110	u225.5-110

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Spurs favored, but points lean Rockets

The model makes San Antonio a narrow favorite, projecting a 115.1-112.3 game with a fair spread of Spurs -3 and total 227.5. Market prices are richer than that on the home side, creating the clearest edge on Houston +5.5 and a smaller plus-money case on the Rockets moneyline.

Projection is SA by 2.8, versus market SA -5.5; Houston +5.5 carries 54.2% model probability and +5.82% EV.
Houston moneyline at +175 shows 37.9% model win probability and +4.23% EV, while SA ML at -200 is priced above the model's 62.1%.
Total is basically in line with the model: projected 227.4 vs books at 226.5/228.5, with neither over nor under showing meaningful value.
Spurs injury report matters: De'Aaron Fox and Keldon Johnson are day-to-day, while Tobias Harris is out; Houston only lists Steven Adams and Reed Sheppard as day-to-day.
Recent form is slightly better for Houston (LWLWW) than San Antonio (LLWWL), and this is the opening game of the season series at Moody Center.

Props to watch

Amen Thompson Over 4.5 Assists (+135): top listed prop EV at +20.32% with a 51.2% model hit rate.
De'Aaron Fox Over 23.5 PRA (+102): strong 57.5% model probability, but it is worth monitoring given his day-to-day tag.
Marcus Smart Over 7.5 Points (-103): 58.6% model probability and +15.49% EV on the listed number.

Lean: HOU +5.5

Injury Report

HOU

Steven Adams CDay-To-Day · Calf
Reed Sheppard GDay-To-Day · Knee

De'Aaron Fox GDay-To-Day · Wrist
Keldon Johnson FDay-To-Day · Mouth
Tobias Harris FOut · Calf
Jayden Quaintance FOut · Knee

Recent Form · Series

HOU

LWLWW

LLWWL

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/23

Game Props

HOU @ SA · Player Props

69 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Amen Thompson HOU G · vs SA	Assists	4.5	5.2	+0.7	+135UD	-143DK	Over 4.5	51.2	42.6	-105	+8.7%	+20.3%	-0.5pp
De'Aaron Fox SA G · vs HOU	PRA	23.5	28.44	+4.94	+102UD	-117DK	Over 23.5	57.5	49.5	-135	+8.0%	+16.1%	-1
Marcus Smart HOU G · vs SA	Points	7.5	9.4	+1.9	-103UD	-110DK	Over 7.5	58.6	50.7	-142	+7.9%	+15.5%	+0.4pp
Dylan Harper SA G · vs HOU	Rebounds	4.5	3.72	-0.78	-152DK	+124UD	Under 4.5	51.5	44.6	-106	+6.9%	+15.4%	+2.5pp
De'Aaron Fox SA G · vs HOU	Assists	4.5	6.26	+1.76	o5.5+134UD	u5.5-164UD	Over 5.5	49.1	42.7	+104	+6.4%	+14.9%	-1
De'Aaron Fox SA G · vs HOU	Points	14.5	18.14	+3.64	-102UD	-114DK	Over 14.5	57.8	50.5	-137	+7.3%	+14.5%	+2.0pp
Dylan Harper SA G · vs HOU	Points	17.5	12.35	-5.15	o16.5-130UD	u16.5+106UD	Under 16.5	54.9	48.5	-122	+6.3%	+13.1%	+0.8pp
Alperen Sengun HOU C · vs SA	Points	18.5	20.6	+2.1	o17.5-114UD	-116DK	Over 17.5	60.2	53.3	-151	+6.9%	+13.0%	-2
Alperen Sengun HOU C · vs SA	PRA	33.5	35.66	+2.16	o32.5-108UD	-113DK	Over 32.5	57.9	51.9	-137	+6.0%	+11.5%	-1
Devin Vassell SA G · vs HOU	PRA	17.5	19.56	+2.06	+102UD	-123DK	Over 17.5	54.7	49.5	-121	+5.2%	+10.5%	-0.2pp
Stephon Castle SA G · vs HOU	Assists	6.5	6.8	+0.3	+129UD	-143DK	Over 6.5	48.2	43.7	+107	+4.5%	+10.4%	-2.2pp
Kevin Durant HOU F · vs SA	PRA	34.5	36.46	+1.96	o33.5-106UD	-120DK	Over 33.5	56.5	51.5	-130	+5.1%	+9.8%	+1
Devin Vassell SA G · vs HOU	Assists	2.5	2.36	-0.14	o1.5-179UD	-162DK	Over 1.5	70.4	64.2	-238	+6.3%	+9.8%	0
Jabari Smith Jr. HOU F · vs SA	Points	14.5	17.07	+2.57	+100DK	-127DK	Over 14.5	54.9	50.0	-122	+4.9%	+9.8%	+1
Amen Thompson HOU G · vs SA	Points	15.5	18.06	+2.56	-108UD	-108DK	Over 15.5	57.0	51.9	-133	+5.1%	+9.8%	-2
Kevin Durant HOU F · vs SA	Assists	3.5	4.61	+1.11	-130UD	+113DK	Over 3.5	61.8	56.5	-162	+5.3%	+9.3%	-2.0pp
Dylan Harper SA G · vs HOU	PRA	26.5	20.03	-6.47	-115UD	-106DK	Under 26.5	56.2	51.5	-128	+4.7%	+9.2%	+2.8pp
Victor Wembanyama SA F · vs HOU	Assists	3.5	3.1	-0.4	o2.5-173UD	-160DK	Over 2.5	68.9	63.4	-222	+5.6%	+8.8%	+1
Tari Eason HOU F · vs SA	Points	8.5	9.68	+1.18	-104UD	-112DK	Over 8.5	55.4	51.0	-124	+4.4%	+8.7%	+0.9pp
Amen Thompson HOU G · vs SA	PRA	28.5	31.23	+2.73	o27.5-118UD	-121DK	Over 27.5	58.7	54.1	-142	+4.6%	+8.4%	-2.2pp
Jabari Smith Jr. HOU F · vs SA	PRA	21.5	25.55	+4.05	-125UD	+102UD	Over 21.5	59.7	55.6	-148	+4.1%	+7.5%	+1.0pp
Fred VanVleet HOU G · vs SA	Rebounds	2.5	2.45	-0.05	-166DK	+139UD	Under 2.5	44.9	41.8	+123	+3.1%	+7.3%	+1.5pp
Marcus Smart HOU G · vs SA	Assists	2.5	2.89	+0.39	+106UD	-130DK	Over 2.5	52.0	48.5	-108	+3.5%	+7.1%	-0.4pp
Devin Vassell SA G · vs HOU	Points	11.5	13.28	+1.78	-107DK	-114UD	Over 11.5	55.2	51.7	-123	+3.5%	+6.8%	+1.6pp
Fred VanVleet HOU G · vs SA	Threes	2.5	2.45	-0.05	+138UD	-144DK	Over 2.5	44.6	42.0	+124	+2.6%	+6.2%	+2.8pp
Alperen Sengun HOU C · vs SA	Assists	5.5	6.07	+0.57	+117DK	-154DK	Over 5.5	48.8	46.1	+105	+2.7%	+5.9%	-4.6pp
Amen Thompson HOU G · vs SA	First Basket	1st	7.9%	+1.6pp	+1240DK	—	First Basket	7.9	7.5	+1173	+0.4%	+5.2%	+0.3pp
Julian Champagnie SA F · vs HOU	Points	9.5	10.83	+1.33	-111DK	-109UD	Over 9.5	55.3	52.6	-124	+2.7%	+5.1%	0—
De'Aaron Fox SA G · vs HOU	Rebounds	3.5	4.05	+0.55	-101DK	-109UD	Over 3.5	52.8	50.2	-112	+2.5%	+5.1%	-0.8pp
Stephon Castle SA G · vs HOU	Points	17.5	17.33	-0.17	o16.5-114UD	-122DK	Over 16.5	55.9	53.3	-127	+2.7%	+5.0%	-0.2pp
Victor Wembanyama SA F · vs HOU	Rebounds	11.5	11.64	+0.14	+120UD	-138DK	Over 11.5	47.7	45.5	+110	+2.3%	+4.9%	+1
Tari Eason HOU F · vs SA	Rebounds	4.5	5.79	+1.29	-140DK	+129UD	Over 4.5	61.2	58.3	-158	+2.9%	+4.9%	-0.5pp
Victor Wembanyama SA F · vs HOU	Threes	1.5	1.73	+0.23	-150DK	+131UD	Under 1.5	45.4	43.3	+120	+2.1%	+4.9%	+2.4pp
Marcus Smart HOU G · vs SA	Threes	1.5	1.6	+0.1	+161DK	-182UD	Over 1.5	40.1	38.3	+149	+1.8%	+4.7%	-0.1pp
Kevin Durant HOU F · vs SA	Points	24.5	26.34	+1.84	o23.5-127UD	-110DK	Over 23.5	58.4	55.9	-141	+2.5%	+4.4%	-1
Dylan Harper SA G · vs HOU	Threes	1.5	0.8	-0.7	+157DK	-189UD	Under 1.5	68.0	65.4	-212	+2.6%	+4.0%	-0.7pp
Julian Champagnie SA F · vs HOU	Rebounds	4.5	5.52	+1.02	-139UD	+113UD	Over 4.5	60.4	58.2	-153	+2.2%	+3.9%	-1.1pp
Jabari Smith Jr. HOU F · vs SA	Rebounds	5.5	6.7	+1.2	-136UD	+111UD	Over 5.5	59.8	57.6	-149	+2.2%	+3.8%	+0.7pp
Julian Champagnie SA F · vs HOU	PRA	16.5	17.84	+1.34	-103DK	-114UD	Over 16.5	52.6	50.7	-111	+1.9%	+3.7%	-0.8pp
Julian Champagnie SA F · vs HOU	Threes	2.5	2.34	-0.16	+153UD	-174DK	Over 2.5	40.8	39.5	+145	+1.3%	+3.2%	0—

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