Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

Fri, Oct 23 · 6:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

ATL

Atlanta Hawks · 1-0

Model 113.7 · ESPN 49.1%

Proj total 231.1

CHA

Charlotte Hornets · 1-0

Model 117.5 · ESPN 50.9%

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Spectrum Center

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

ATL ML

Fair +103 · Model 49.2%

-142

Edge -9.5% · EV -16.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

CHA ML

Fair -103 · Model 50.8%

+124

Edge +6.2% · EV +13.8%

Kelly ¼: 2.78% of bankroll ($27.81 of $1000)

Spread

ATL -2.5

Fair +148 · Model 43.1%

-111

UNI

Edge -9.5% · EV -18.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

CHA +3

Fair -148 · Model 58.3%

-105

CZR

Edge +7.1% · EV +13.8%

Kelly ¼: 3.63% of bankroll ($36.29 of $1000)

Total

Over 225.5

Fair -126 · Model 55.7%

-110

365

Edge +3.3% · EV +6.3%

Kelly ¼: 1.74% of bankroll ($17.43 of $1000)

Under 226.5

Fair +126 · Model 46.4%

-110

Edge -6.0% · EV -11.4%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	ATL ML	CHA ML	ATL Spread	CHA Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	-148	+124	-3.5-102	+3.5-118	o225.5-112	u225.5-108
FanDuel	-142	+120	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	o226.5-110	u226.5-110
BetMGM	-145	+118	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	o225.5-115	u225.5-105
Caesars	-145	+122	-3-115	+3-105	o225.5-110	u225.5-110
bet365	-144	+122	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	o225.5-110	u225.5-110
BetRivers	-143	+117	-3.5+102	+3.5-125	o225.5-113	u225.5-108
Unibet	-143	+120	-2.5-111	+2.5-105	o225.5-111	u225.5-105
Consensus	-145	+120	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	o225.5-115	u225.5-106
Opening Line	-142	+120	-2.5-116	+2.5-105	o227.5-111	u227.5-116

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Hornets show value at home versus Hawks

The projection makes this close to a coin flip on the moneyline, but with Charlotte favored by 3.8 points at home and the market still offering plus money, the value sits with the Hornets. Total is projected at 231.1, giving a modest lean to the over relative to 225.5.

Model projects Charlotte 117.5-113.7, with a fair home spread of -4.0 versus market +3.
CHA moneyline at +124 carries 50.8% model win probability and 13.79% EV; ATL moneyline is negative EV at -16.15%.
Charlotte +3 is the strongest listed side, with 58.3% cover probability and 13.83% EV.
Over 225.5 has a smaller edge: 55.7% model probability with 6.34% EV off a 231.1 projected total.
Injuries are lighter for Atlanta by count, but both teams enter 1-0 and ESPN win probability is nearly identical at 50.9% CHA to 49.1% ATL.

Props to watch

Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 Threes (+154): highest prop EV on the board at 10.49% with a 43.5% model hit rate.
Sion James Under 1.5 Threes (-139): solid 62.5% model probability and 7.46% EV.
Grayson Allen Over 2.5 Threes (-108): 55.1% model probability with 6.12% EV in a game projected into the 230s.

Lean: CHA +3

Injury Report

ATL

Mouhamed Gueye FOut · Foot
Henri Veesaar COut · Knee

CHA

Grant Williams FOut · Hamstring
Coby White GOut · Calf
Kon Knueppel GOut · Hamstring
Kylan Boswell GOut · Knee

Recent Form · Series

ATL

WWWWW

CHA

LWLLW

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/23

Game Props

ATL @ CHA · Player Props

22 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Luguentz Dort ATL G · vs CHA	Threes	1.5	1.87	+0.37	+154DK	-205DK	Over 1.5	43.5	39.4	+130	+4.1%	+10.5%	+0.2pp
Sion James CHA G · vs ATL	Threes	1.5	1.01	-0.49	+117DK	-139UD	Under 1.5	62.5	58.2	-167	+4.3%	+7.5%	0—
Grayson Allen CHA G · vs ATL	Threes	2.5	3.29	+0.79	-108UD	-113DK	Over 2.5	55.1	51.9	-123	+3.2%	+6.1%	+0.7pp
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL G · vs CHA	Threes	2.5	3.38	+0.88	-127UD	+105DK	Over 2.5	58.3	55.9	-140	+2.4%	+4.2%	0—
Brandon Miller CHA F · vs ATL	Threes	3.5	3.13	-0.37	-102UD	-121UD	Under 3.5	55.2	54.8	-123	+0.5%	+0.8%	-2.7pp
Dyson Daniels ATL G · vs CHA	First Basket	1st	7.8%	+1.2pp	+1180DK	—	First Basket	7.8	7.8	+1176	+0.0%	+0.3%	+0.2pp
Dennis Schroder CHA G · vs ATL	Threes	1.5	0.97	-0.53	+178UD	-223UD	Under 1.5	69.1	69.0	-224	+0.1%	+0.1%	-8.5pp
Aaron Wiggins ATL G · vs CHA	Threes	1.5	1.62	+0.12	+126DK	-148UD	Over 1.5	43.8	44.2	+128	-0.5%	-1.0%	-0.3pp
Onyeka Okongwu ATL F · vs CHA	Threes	1.5	1.77	+0.27	-103UD	-120UD	Over 1.5	49.8	50.7	+101	-0.9%	-1.9%	0—
Naz Reid CHA C · vs ATL	Threes	2.5	2.28	-0.22	+110UD	-136UD	Under 2.5	56.5	57.6	-130	-1.1%	-2.0%	0—
CJ McCollum ATL G · vs CHA	Threes	1.5	2.65	+1.15	-176UD	+141UD	Over 1.5	62.4	63.8	-166	-1.4%	-2.1%	0—
Jock Landale ATL C · vs CHA	Threes	0.5	0.99	+0.49	-205UD	+164UD	Under 0.5	36.5	37.9	+174	-1.4%	-3.6%	+0.5pp
Jalen Johnson ATL F · vs CHA	Threes	1.5	1.52	+0.02	+106UD	-129DK	Over 1.5	46.4	48.5	+116	-2.1%	-4.4%	0—
Jalen Johnson ATL F · vs CHA	First Basket	1st	13%	+1.1pp	+610DK	—	First Basket	13.0	14.1	+670	-1.1%	-7.8%	-1.0pp
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL G · vs CHA	First Basket	1st	11.6%	+0.8pp	+680DK	—	First Basket	11.6	12.8	+762	-1.2%	-9.6%	+0.2pp
Brandon Miller CHA F · vs ATL	First Basket	1st	12.3%	+0.2pp	+598DK	—	First Basket	12.3	14.3	+710	-2.0%	-13.9%	0—
CJ McCollum ATL G · vs CHA	First Basket	1st	12.6%	+0.1pp	+576DK	—	First Basket	12.6	14.8	+697	-2.2%	-15.2%	+0.5pp
Naz Reid CHA C · vs ATL	First Basket	1st	9.9%	0pp	+760DK	—	First Basket	9.9	11.6	+915	-1.8%	-15.3%	0—
Onyeka Okongwu ATL F · vs CHA	First Basket	1st	9.7%	0pp	+770DK	—	First Basket	9.7	11.5	+927	-1.8%	-15.3%	+0.3pp
Dennis Schroder CHA G · vs ATL	First Basket	1st	7.6%	-0.2pp	+980DK	—	First Basket	7.6	9.3	+1214	-1.6%	-17.8%	0—
Moussa Diabate CHA F · vs ATL	First Basket	1st	9.6%	-1.7pp	+650DK	—	First Basket	9.6	13.3	+947	-3.8%	-28.4%	0—
Sion James CHA G · vs ATL	First Basket	1st	5.9%	-1.6pp	+1020DK	—	First Basket	5.9	8.9	+1584	-3.0%	-33.5%	0—

Showing 22 of 22