Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

Fri, Oct 23 · 6:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

TOR

Toronto Raptors · 1-0

Model 120.5 · ESPN 62.4%

Proj total 232.7

WSH

Washington Wizards · 1-0

Model 112.2 · ESPN 37.6%

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Capital One Arena

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

TOR ML

Fair -250 · Model 71.4%

-230

Edge +1.7% · EV +2.4%

Kelly ¼: 1.41% of bankroll ($14.05 of $1000)

WSH ML

Fair +250 · Model 28.6%

+220

Edge -2.6% · EV -8.5%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Spread

TOR -6.5

Fair -111 · Model 52.7%

-105

UNI

Edge +1.5% · EV +2.9%

Kelly ¼: 0.76% of bankroll ($7.59 of $1000)

WSH +5.5

Fair +111 · Model 44.0%

+116

Edge -2.3% · EV -4.9%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 235.5

Fair +119 · Model 47.8%

-109

Edge -4.4% · EV -8.4%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 236.5

Fair -119 · Model 54.4%

-110

MGM

Edge +2.0% · EV +3.9%

Kelly ¼: 1.06% of bankroll ($10.60 of $1000)

Line shopping · every book

Book	TOR ML	WSH ML	TOR Spread	WSH Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	-245	+200	-6.5-110	+6.5-110	o236.5-105	u236.5-115
FanDuel	-230	+190	-6.5-106	+6.5-114	o235.5-118	u235.5-104
BetMGM	-250	+200	-6.5-110	+6.5-110	o236.5-110	u236.5-110
Caesars	-250	+205	-6.5-110	+6.5-110	o236.5-110	u236.5-110
bet365	-245	+200	-6.5-110	+6.5-110	o236.5-105	u236.5-115
BetRivers	-286	+220	-5.5-143	+5.5+116	o235.5-109	u235.5-112
Unibet	-238	+195	-6.5-105	+6.5-111	o236.5-105	u236.5-111
Consensus	-245	+200	-6.5-110	+6.5-110	o236.5-107	u236.5-112
Opening Line	-173	+145	-4.5-105	+4.5-116	o235.5-116	u235.5-111

Game Props

TOR @ WSH · Player Props

20 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Anthony Davis WSH F · vs TOR	Threes	0.5	0.55	+0.05	-170UD	+137UD	Under 0.5	46.7	42.2	+114	+4.5%	+10.7%	0—
RJ Barrett TOR F · vs WSH	Threes	1.5	1.53	+0.03	-127DK	+106UD	Under 1.5	50.2	48.5	-101	+1.7%	+3.4%	0—
Trae Young WSH G · vs TOR	Threes	2.5	1.64	-0.86	+147UD	-181DK	Under 2.5	66.3	64.4	-197	+1.9%	+2.9%	0—
Alex Sarr WSH C · vs TOR	Threes	1.5	0.95	-0.55	+158DK	-193UD	Under 1.5	67.6	65.9	-209	+1.7%	+2.6%	-1.0pp
Ja'Kobe Walter TOR G · vs WSH	Threes	1.5	1.48	-0.02	-109DK	-109UD	Under 1.5	53.1	52.2	-113	+0.9%	+1.8%	-0.8pp
Immanuel Quickley TOR G · vs WSH	Threes	2.5	2.68	+0.18	+100UD	-108DK	Over 2.5	50.9	50.0	-104	+0.9%	+1.8%	0—
Scottie Barnes TOR F · vs WSH	Threes	0.5	0.86	+0.36	-193UD	+169DK	Under 0.5	37.4	37.2	+167	+0.2%	+0.6%	+0.8pp
Kawhi Leonard TOR F · vs WSH	Threes	2.5	2.59	+0.09	+130DK	-157UD	Over 2.5	43.2	43.5	+131	-0.3%	-0.6%	0—
Bilal Coulibaly WSH G · vs TOR	Threes	1.5	1.15	-0.35	+164UD	-193DK	Under 1.5	64.0	65.9	-178	-1.9%	-2.8%	0—
Tre Johnson WSH G · vs TOR	Threes	1.5	1.74	+0.24	-130DK	-101DK	Under 1.5	47.4	50.2	+111	-2.9%	-5.7%	+0.3pp
RJ Barrett TOR F · vs WSH	First Basket	1st	10%	+0.7pp	+810DK	—	First Basket	10.0	11.0	+904	-1.0%	-9.4%	0—
Alex Sarr WSH C · vs TOR	First Basket	1st	8.8%	+0.5pp	+920DK	—	First Basket	8.8	9.8	+1033	-1.0%	-9.9%	0—
Anthony Davis WSH F · vs TOR	First Basket	1st	12.7%	+0.5pp	+596DK	—	First Basket	12.7	14.4	+689	-1.7%	-11.8%	+0.0pp
Bilal Coulibaly WSH G · vs TOR	First Basket	1st	6.4%	0pp	+1240DK	—	First Basket	6.4	7.5	+1474	-1.1%	-14.8%	-0.1pp
Kawhi Leonard TOR F · vs WSH	First Basket	1st	14.6%	+0.1pp	+483DK	—	First Basket	14.6	17.2	+587	-2.6%	-15.1%	0—
Trae Young WSH G · vs TOR	First Basket	1st	8.4%	-0.1pp	+900DK	—	First Basket	8.4	10.0	+1091	-1.6%	-16.0%	0—
Immanuel Quickley TOR G · vs WSH	First Basket	1st	9.3%	-0.1pp	+800DK	—	First Basket	9.3	11.1	+979	-1.8%	-16.6%	0—
Scottie Barnes TOR F · vs WSH	First Basket	1st	12%	-0.4pp	+581DK	—	First Basket	12.0	14.7	+732	-2.7%	-18.1%	0—
Kyshawn George WSH F · vs TOR	First Basket	1st	9.3%	-0.3pp	+780DK	—	First Basket	9.3	11.4	+978	-2.1%	-18.3%	0—
Jakob Poeltl TOR C · vs WSH	First Basket	1st	8.7%	-1pp	+780DK	—	First Basket	8.7	11.4	+1056	-2.7%	-23.9%	0—

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