Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

Fri, Oct 23 · 3:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

CHI

Chicago Bulls · 0-1

Model 115.1 · ESPN 42.6%

Proj total 233.4

MIL

Milwaukee Bucks · 0-1

Model 118.3 · ESPN 57.4%

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Fiserv Forum

Markets

Moneyline · Spread · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

CHI ML

Fair +118 · Model 45.9%

-104

Edge -5.1% · EV -10.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

MIL ML

Fair -118 · Model 54.1%

-102

Edge +3.6% · EV +7.1%

Kelly ¼: 1.82% of bankroll ($18.21 of $1000)

Spread

CHI -1.5

Fair +135 · Model 42.5%

-102

MGM

Edge -8.0% · EV -15.8%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

MIL +1.5

Fair -135 · Model 57.5%

-114

Edge +4.2% · EV +7.9%

Kelly ¼: 2.26% of bankroll ($22.62 of $1000)

Total

Over 237.5

Fair +125 · Model 46.5%

-110

Edge -5.8% · EV -11.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Under 237.5

Fair -125 · Model 53.5%

-105

MGM

Edge +2.2% · EV +4.4%

Kelly ¼: 1.17% of bankroll ($11.69 of $1000)

Line shopping · every book

Book	CHI ML	MIL ML	CHI Spread	MIL Spread	Over	Under
DraftKings	-115	-105	-1.5-105	+1.5-115	o238.5-105	u238.5-115
FanDuel	-116	-102	-1.5-106	+1.5-114	o237.5-110	u237.5-110
BetMGM	-115	-105	-1.5-102	+1.5-118	o237.5-115	u237.5-105
Caesars	-110	-110	—	—	o238-110	u238-110
bet365	-113	-107	-1.5-105	+1.5-115	o237.5-110	u237.5-110
BetRivers	-104	-120	—	—	o237.5-114	u237.5-107
Unibet	-118	-102	-1.5-105	+1.5-114	o237.5-110	u237.5-106
Consensus	-115	-105	-1.5-103	+1.5-116	o237.5-115	u237.5-109
Opening Line	-110	-110	+1.5-120	-1.5-100	o238.5-116	u238.5-111

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Bucks slight home edge in high total

Milwaukee projects as a narrow home favorite, with the model making the Bucks -3.0 in a game priced closer to Milwaukee +1.5 on the spread. The total is high at 237.5, but the projection lands lower at 233.4, pointing more toward a modest under than a pace-up over.

Model projection: MIL 118.3, CHI 115.1, for a 3.2-point Bucks edge and 233.4 total.
Best market value is on Milwaukee: ML -102 carries 54.1% model win probability for +7.14% EV, while MIL +1.5 at -113 shows 57.5% win probability and +8.38% EV.
Total leans under: fair total is 233.5 versus market 237.5, with Under 237.5 at -105 showing 53.5% model probability and +4.45% EV.
Chicago has five day-to-day tags listed, including Josh Giddey and Zach Collins, while Milwaukee has no listed injuries in the JSON.
Both teams enter 0-1, with Milwaukee's last five at WLLWL and Chicago's at LLWWL; sample size on the projection is still just 21.0 games.

Props to watch

Jalen Smith Under 12.5 Points (+104): highest listed prop EV at +19.54 with a 58.6% model probability.
Jalen Smith Under 7.5 Rebounds (+121): plus money with 52.1% model probability and +15.14% EV.
Kyle Kuzma Over 10.5 Points (-118): 61.9% model probability and +14.36% EV.

Lean: MIL +1.5

Injury Report

CHI

Dailyn Swain GDay-To-Day · Illness
Jordan Hawkins GDay-To-Day · Illness
Zach Collins FDay-To-Day · Quadriceps
Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day · Knee
Josh Giddey GDay-To-Day · Wrist

MIL

No injuries reported.

Recent Form · Series

CHI

LLWWL

MIL

WLLWL

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/23

Game Props

CHI @ MIL · Player Props

66 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Jalen Smith CHI F · vs MIL	PRA	22.5	18.67	-3.83	-111DK	u23.5-121UD	Under 23.5	64.3	54.8	-180	+9.5%	+17.4%	+1
Jalen Smith CHI F · vs MIL	Points	12.5	10.64	-1.86	-116DK	+104UD	Under 12.5	57.3	49.0	-134	+8.3%	+16.9%	+1.4pp
Jalen Smith CHI F · vs MIL	Rebounds	7.5	6.82	-0.68	-128DK	+121UD	Under 7.5	52.1	45.2	-109	+6.8%	+15.1%	-1.2pp
Kyle Kuzma MIL F · vs CHI	Points	11.5	12.26	+0.76	o10.5-118UD	-119DK	Over 10.5	62.3	54.1	-165	+8.2%	+15.1%	-1
Tyler Herro MIL G · vs CHI	Rebounds	4.5	4.53	+0.03	o3.5-150UD	-153DK	Over 3.5	68.8	60.0	-221	+8.8%	+14.7%	-0.4pp
Tre Jones CHI G · vs MIL	Points	8.5	13.97	+5.47	-108UD	-103DK	Over 8.5	59.4	51.9	-146	+7.5%	+14.4%	+2.1pp
Leonard Miller CHI F · vs MIL	PRA	16.5	12.5	-4	-114DK	-104UD	Under 16.5	58.1	51.0	-139	+7.1%	+14.0%	-0.6pp
Kyle Kuzma MIL F · vs CHI	Rebounds	4.5	4.67	+0.17	+143UD	-161DK	Over 4.5	46.3	41.2	+116	+5.2%	+12.5%	+0.2pp
Tyler Herro MIL G · vs CHI	Points	22.5	20.83	-1.67	-114DK	u23.5-115UD	Under 23.5	59.5	53.5	-147	+6.0%	+11.3%	-1
Tre Jones CHI G · vs MIL	PRA	15.5	21.99	+6.49	o14.5-113UD	-128DK	Over 14.5	58.7	53.1	-142	+5.7%	+10.7%	+1
Ryan Rollins MIL G · vs CHI	Rebounds	4.5	4.7	+0.2	+137UD	-161DK	Over 4.5	46.6	42.2	+115	+4.4%	+10.4%	+0.3pp
Leonard Miller CHI F · vs MIL	Points	9.5	7.5	-2	-109UD	-111DK	Under 9.5	57.7	52.6	-136	+5.1%	+9.7%	+1.6pp
Leonard Miller CHI F · vs MIL	Rebounds	5.5	4.12	-1.38	+107UD	-132UD	Under 5.5	62.1	56.9	-164	+5.2%	+9.2%	0—
Tyler Herro MIL G · vs CHI	Assists	5.5	4.56	-0.94	+110DK	-124UD	Under 5.5	60.4	55.4	-153	+5.0%	+9.1%	-0.2pp
Tyler Herro MIL G · vs CHI	Threes	2.5	2.68	+0.18	-159DK	+139UD	Under 2.5	45.1	41.8	+122	+3.3%	+7.8%	-1
Tre Jones CHI G · vs MIL	Assists	3.5	4.9	+1.4	-124UD	+101UD	Over 3.5	59.5	55.4	-147	+4.1%	+7.5%	+0.6pp
Tyler Herro MIL G · vs CHI	PRA	32.5	29.93	-2.57	-113DK	-105UD	Under 32.5	54.9	51.2	-122	+3.7%	+7.2%	-1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL F · vs CHI	Threes	0.5	0.79	+0.29	-213UD	+172UD	Under 0.5	39.2	36.8	+155	+2.4%	+6.6%	-1
Josh Giddey CHI G · vs MIL	Rebounds	7.5	8.18	+0.68	o6.5-139UD	-147DK	Over 6.5	62.0	58.2	-163	+3.8%	+6.5%	-1.2pp
Norman Powell CHI G · vs MIL	Rebounds	2.5	3.62	+1.12	-118DK	+123UD	Over 2.5	57.5	54.1	-135	+3.4%	+6.2%	+1.0pp
Josh Giddey CHI G · vs MIL	Points	13.5	15.65	+2.15	-112DK	-105UD	Over 13.5	56.0	52.8	-127	+3.2%	+6.0%	-1.7pp
Kel'el Ware MIL C · vs CHI	Points	9.5	10.68	+1.18	-106DK	-108UD	Over 9.5	54.1	51.5	-118	+2.6%	+5.1%	-1.3pp
Kel'el Ware MIL C · vs CHI	Rebounds	7.5	8.47	+0.97	+101DK	-110UD	Over 7.5	52.1	49.8	-109	+2.4%	+4.7%	-0.3pp
Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIL F · vs CHI	Assists	4.5	4.45	-0.05	o3.5-170UD	-164DK	Over 3.5	65.8	63.0	-192	+2.8%	+4.4%	+0.2pp
Matas Buzelis CHI F · vs MIL	PRA	23.5	24.03	+0.53	-124DK	u24.5-110UD	Under 24.5	54.2	52.4	-119	+1.9%	+3.5%	0—
Leonard Miller CHI F · vs MIL	Threes	1.5	0.63	-0.87	+157UD	-197UD	Under 1.5	67.6	66.3	-209	+1.3%	+1.9%	0—
Kasparas Jakucionis MIL G · vs CHI	Points	7.5	6.99	-0.51	-124UD	+100UD	Under 7.5	50.8	50.0	-103	+0.8%	+1.6%	0
Matas Buzelis CHI F · vs MIL	Points	15.5	16.33	+0.83	-126DK	u16.5-114UD	Under 16.5	54.1	53.3	-118	+0.8%	+1.6%	+0.2pp
Ryan Rollins MIL G · vs CHI	Points	17.5	16.56	-0.94	-106DK	-112UD	Under 17.5	53.6	52.8	-116	+0.8%	+1.5%	-2.3pp
Josh Giddey CHI G · vs MIL	PRA	30.5	32.69	+2.19	-109DK	u31.5-130UD	Over 30.5	52.9	52.2	-112	+0.8%	+1.4%	+0.4pp
Myles Turner MIL C · vs CHI	Points	11.5	11.83	+0.33	+100UD	-119DK	Over 11.5	50.5	50.0	-102	+0.5%	+1.0%	-1.1pp
Ryan Rollins MIL G · vs CHI	Assists	4.5	5.36	+0.86	-135DK	+112UD	Over 4.5	57.9	57.4	-138	+0.5%	+0.8%	-0.3pp
Matas Buzelis CHI F · vs MIL	Rebounds	5.5	5.83	+0.33	+100DK	-120UD	Over 5.5	50.1	50.0	-100	+0.1%	+0.2%	-2.9pp
Caleb Wilson CHI F · vs MIL	Threes	1.5	1.45	-0.05	-101DK	-121UD	Under 1.5	54.5	54.8	-120	-0.3%	-0.5%	-1.8pp
Norman Powell CHI G · vs MIL	Threes	2.5	2.63	+0.13	-110UD	+102DK	Over 2.5	52.0	52.4	-108	-0.4%	-0.7%	+1.7pp
Kel'el Ware MIL C · vs CHI	Threes	0.5	1.09	+0.59	-206DK	+174UD	Under 0.5	36.2	36.5	+176	-0.3%	-0.8%	-1.1pp
Caleb Wilson CHI F · vs MIL	PRA	26.5	25.91	-0.59	o25.5-118UD	-124DK	Over 25.5	53.7	54.1	-116	-0.5%	-0.9%	+2
Ryan Rollins MIL G · vs CHI	Threes	2.5	2.35	-0.15	+146UD	-182UD	Over 2.5	40.1	40.7	+149	-0.6%	-1.4%	-2.6pp
Jalen Smith CHI F · vs MIL	Threes	1.5	1.41	-0.09	+107UD	-121DK	Under 1.5	54.0	54.8	-117	-0.8%	-1.4%	-0.7pp
Matas Buzelis CHI F · vs MIL	Threes	2.5	2.04	-0.46	+167UD	-188DK	Over 2.5	36.9	37.5	+171	-0.6%	-1.5%	-0.8pp

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