NBA Edge Terminal
Model projections vs the best price across your sportsbooks · edge % · expected value · line movement — refreshed continuously.
Games: Team ratings (PF/PA per game, prior season regressed + current season) → normal win/cover/over probabilities, blended 45% model / 55% no-vig market. Props: Per-game player rates (prior season blended with current) → Poisson/normal over probabilities, blended 35% model / 65% no-vig market. Unpriced lines assume -110.
Today's Games
20 games · tap a game for its full research view — markets by book, every player prop, AI read
Best +EV Right Now
484 positive-EV opportunities · 32 game markets · 452 player props · best price across all books · ranked by EV
| Tier | Market / Player | Type | Game | Model Proj | Best Odds | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ELITE | LAC ML Moneyline | game | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Win 32.0% | +320UNI | 32.0 | 23.8 | +213 | +8.2% | +34.4% | 0 | |
ELITE | ![]() Brandon Williams Points · Over 9.5 | prop | MEM @ GS Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 13.1 | -102UD | 63.0 | 50.5 | -170 | +12.5% | +24.8% | +1 | |
ELITE | ![]() Amen Thompson Assists · Over 4.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 5.2 | +135UD | 51.7 | 42.6 | -107 | +9.2% | +21.5% | +0.2pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Ausar Thompson Assists · Under 4.5 | prop | DET @ MIA Fri 7:00 PM CT | Proj 3.29 | -108UD | 62.7 | 51.9 | -168 | +10.8% | +20.8% | +0.1pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Rui Hachimura Rebounds · Under 5.5 | prop | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 3.75 | +103UD | 58.8 | 49.3 | -143 | +9.5% | +19.4% | -2.4pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Jalen Smith Points · Under 12.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 10.64 | +104UD | 58.4 | 49.0 | -140 | +9.4% | +19.1% | -0.2pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Tre Johnson Points · Over 8.5 | prop | TOR @ WSH Fri 6:00 PM CT | Proj 11.83 | -114UD | 63.3 | 53.3 | -172 | +10.0% | +18.8% | -0.1pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Dylan Harper Rebounds · Under 4.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 3.72 | +124UD | 53.0 | 44.6 | -113 | +8.4% | +18.7% | +1.1pp | |
ELITE | ![]() De'Aaron Fox PRA · Over 23.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 28.44 | +102UD | 58.6 | 49.5 | -142 | +9.1% | +18.4% | -1 | |
ELITE | ![]() Rui Hachimura Points · Under 16.5 | prop | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 11.34 | +112UD | 55.6 | 47.2 | -125 | +8.5% | +18.0% | +1 | |
ELITE | ![]() Isaiah Joe Points · Over 8.5 | prop | DET @ MIA Fri 7:00 PM CT | Proj 10.78 | +104UD | 57.8 | 49.0 | -137 | +8.8% | +17.9% | +0.4pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Kyshawn George Rebounds · Over 4.5 | prop | TOR @ WSH Fri 6:00 PM CT | Proj 5.09 | +139UD | 49.3 | 41.8 | +103 | +7.5% | +17.8% | -0.4pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Gui Santos Points · Under 12.5 | prop | MEM @ GS Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 9.45 | -130UD | 66.4 | 56.5 | -198 | +9.9% | +17.6% | -2.0pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Jalen Smith PRA · Under 22.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 18.67 | -115UD | 62.8 | 53.5 | -169 | +9.3% | +17.4% | 0 | |
ELITE | ![]() Naji Marshall Points · Over 12.5 | prop | DAL @ IND Fri 6:00 PM CT | Proj 15.31 | -122UD | 64.3 | 55.0 | -180 | +9.4% | +17.1% | +3.6pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Saddiq Bey Rebounds · Over 3.5 | prop | NO @ UTAH Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 5.51 | +114UD | 54.6 | 46.7 | -120 | +7.9% | +16.8% | 0 | |
ELITE | ![]() De'Aaron Fox Points · Over 14.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 18.14 | -102UD | 59.0 | 50.5 | -144 | +8.5% | +16.8% | +3.2pp | |
ELITE | ![]() De'Aaron Fox Assists · Over 5.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 6.26 | +134UD | 49.9 | 42.7 | +100 | +7.2% | +16.8% | -0.7pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Marcus Smart Points · Over 7.5 | prop | HOU @ SA Fri 8:30 PM CT | Proj 9.4 | -103UD | 59.2 | 50.7 | -145 | +8.5% | +16.7% | +1.3pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Jalen Smith Rebounds · Under 7.5 | prop | CHI @ MIL Fri 3:00 PM CT | Proj 6.82 | +121UD | 52.7 | 45.2 | -111 | +7.5% | +16.5% | -2.0pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Jerami Grant PRA · Over 19.5 | prop | MEM @ GS Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 23.83 | -107UD | 60.0 | 51.7 | -150 | +8.3% | +16.1% | 0 | |
ELITE | ![]() Neemias Queta Points · Over 7.5 | prop | NY @ BOS Fri 6:00 PM CT | Proj 9.56 | -107UD | 60.0 | 51.7 | -150 | +8.3% | +16.1% | +1.4pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Sandro Mamukelashvili Points · Over 7.5 | prop | LAC @ LAL Fri 9:00 PM CT | Proj 10.6 | -139UD | 67.4 | 58.2 | -206 | +9.2% | +15.8% | -2.9pp | |
ELITE | ![]() Dennis Schroder PRA · Under 22.5 | prop | ATL @ CHA Fri 6:00 PM CT | Proj 19.35 | -108UD | 60.1 | 51.9 | -151 | +8.2% | +15.8% | 0— | |
ELITE | ![]() Dennis Schroder Points · Under 13.5 | prop | ATL @ CHA Fri 6:00 PM CT | Proj 11.55 | -118UD | 62.6 | 54.1 | -167 | +8.5% | +15.7% | 0 |
Moneyline · Spread · Total
Model win / cover / over probability vs the best price across all books · fair odds · edge % · tap a game to research it
| Time | Matchup | Proj Score · Total | Best ML · Model % | Fair ML | ML Edge | Spread · Cover % | Fair Line | ATS Edge | Total O / U | Total Edge | Best Bet | Line Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fri 3:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 115.1 118.3 | -104BR44.7% -104FD55.3% | +124 -124 | -6.3% +4.3% | +1.5-118DK48.4% +1.5-115FD61.2% | MIL -3 | -5.7% +7.7% | o238.5-106BR46.7% u240.5-115DK57.5% | -4.8% +4.0% | MIL +1.5 FD +14.4% | ML+1.1ppSPR+0.4ppTOT+1 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 109.3 112.3 | +124DK41.5% -137UNI58.5% | +141 -141 | -3.1% +0.7% | +2.5-105DK48.5% -2.5-106UNI51.5% | BOS -3 | -2.7% +0.0% | o222.5-111UNI49.3% u223.5-109BR52.9% | -3.3% +0.8% | Under 223.5 BR +1.4% | ML+2.1ppSPR+1.1ppTOT-1 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 113.7 117.5 | -13936548.3% +122CZR51.7% | +107 -107 | -9.9% +6.7% | -2.5-111UNI43.1% +3-110CZR58.3% | CHA -4 | -9.5% +6.0% | o225.5-105DK54.9% u226.5-110FD47.2% | +3.7% -5.2% | CHA ML CZR +14.8% | ML-1.2ppSPR-1.1ppTOT-1 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 116.5 118.2 | +190DK38% -215FD62% | +163 -163 | +3.5% -6.3% | +6.5-110DK56.9% -6.5-100UNI43.1% | IND -2 | +4.5% -6.9% | o237.5-110FD47.8% u238.5-110MGM54.4% | -4.6% +2.0% | DAL ML DK +10.2% | ML+2.4ppSPR-1TOT+4 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 117.1 116.2 | -125MGM53.7% +110DK46.3% | -116 +116 | -1.9% -1.3% | -1.5-110DK49.1% +2-110CZR52.6% | ORL +1 | -3.3% +0.2% | o234.5-110CZR49.5% u235.5-110FD52.7% | -2.9% +0.3% | Under 235.5 FD +0.6% | ML-2.5ppSPR0TOT-3 | |
Fri 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 120.5 112.2 | -238UNI72.3% +220BR27.7% | -261 +261 | +1.9% -3.5% | -6.5-110FD53.9% +7.5-114BR49.4% | WSH +8.5 | +1.5% -3.9% | o235.5-118FD48.4% u237.5-114BR56% | -5.8% +2.7% | Under 237.5 BR +5.0% | ML-7.3ppSPR+3TOT+1 | |
Fri 7:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 118.6 115.7 | -110FD54.9% -102UNI45.1% | -122 +122 | +2.5% -5.4% | -0.5-115BR54.8% +1.5-114UNI48.5% | MIA +3 | +1.3% -4.8% | o235-110CZR49.9% u236.5-109BR53.4% | -2.5% +1.3% | DET ML FD +4.8% | ML-4.3ppSPR+3TOT+1 | |
Fri 8:30 PM CT Draft Kings | 112.3 115.1 | +17536537.9% -200UNI62.1% | +164 -164 | +1.5% -4.6% | +5.5-105CZR54.2% -5.5-105UNI45.8% | SA -3 | +3.0% -5.4% | o227.5-110FD50.5% u228-105CZR50.6% | -1.9% -0.6% | HOU +5.5 CZR +5.8% | ML-1.9ppSPR-2.2ppTOT+3 | |
Fri 8:30 PM CT Draft Kings | 121.4 120.5 | +114FD49.9% -122DK50.1% | +100 -100 | +3.2% -4.8% | +2.5-111UNI56.2% -2-105CZR45.4% | UTAH +1 | +3.6% -5.8% | o237.5-112BR55.8% u239.5-115FD48.6% | +2.9% -4.9% | NO +2.5 UNI +6.9% | ML-11.9ppSPR+4TOT-3 | |
Fri 9:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 114.5 118.2 | +125MGM40.6% -137BR59.4% | +146 -146 | -3.8% +1.6% | +2.5-102DK47.3% -3.5+105BR49.4% | GS -3.5 | -3.2% +0.6% | o234.5-110DK48.2% u235.5-113BR54% | -4.2% +0.9% | GS ML BR +2.8% | ML-1.1ppSPR+1TOT-1 | |
Fri 9:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 112.4 115.0 | +320UNI32% -380DK68% | +213 -213 | +8.2% -11.2% | +9.5-106FD59.1% -9.5+100CZR40.9% | LAL -2.5 | +7.6% -9.1% | o228.5-110DK48.9% u229.5-114BR53.3% | -3.5% +0.0% | LAC ML UNI +34.4% | ML0SPR-1.1ppTOT-1 | |
Fri 9:00 PM CT Draft Kings | 118.4 111.5 | -335FD73.4% +280DK26.6% | -276 +276 | -3.6% +0.3% | -8.5-105FD47.9% +8.5-106UNI52.1% | SAC +7 | -3.3% +0.6% | o232.5-107BR48.4% u233.5-110CZR53.8% | -3.3% +1.4% | Under 233.5 CZR +2.7% | ML-7.9ppSPR+2TOT+1 | |
Sat 5:00 PM CT No line | 113.9 119.3 | — — | +206 -206 | — — | — — | CHA -5.5 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 6:30 PM CT No line | 107.7 118.6 | — — | +457 -457 | — — | — — | CLE -11 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 6:30 PM CT No line | 110.5 117.8 | — — | +265 -265 | — — | — — | PHI -7 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 7:00 PM CT No line | 118.0 121.8 | — — | +168 -168 | — — | — — | CHI -4 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 7:00 PM CT No line | 119.6 113.1 | — — | -240 +240 | — — | — — | DAL +6.5 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 7:30 PM CT No line | 115.5 115.6 | — — | -100 -100 | — — | — — | ATL 0 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 8:00 PM CT No line | 114.5 122.3 | — — | +292 -292 | — — | — — | DEN -8 | — — | — — | — — | — | ||
Sat 9:00 PM CT No line | 111.0 113.6 | — — | +141 -141 | — — | — — | PHX -2.5 | — — | — — | — — | — |
Projection vs Market
791 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No player props posted for this slate yet. Books usually post them on game day, so check back closer to start time. | |||||||||||||||
Line Movement Tracker
Opening → current · 135 up · 165 down · snapshots stored every refresh
| Market | Selection | Open | Current | Price | Δ | Δ Implied | Trend | Move Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
gameMoneyline | UTAH ML NO @ UTAH | -205 | -122 | -122 | -11.9pp | -11.9pp | 39 snapshots | 4.74 |
propThrees | D. Robinson Threes DET @ MIA | 2.5 | 2.5 | +104 | -10.2pp | -10.2pp | 23 snapshots | 4.09 |
propPoints | A. Drummond Points NY @ BOS | 7.5 | 5.5 | -117 | -2 | line moved | 42 snapshots | 4 |
gameSpread | UTAH -1.5 NO @ UTAH | -5.5 | -1.5 | -115 | +4 | line moved | 40 snapshots | 4 |
gameTotal | O/U 238.5 DAL @ IND | 234.5 | 238.5 | -105 | +4 | line moved | 42 snapshots | 4 |
propThrees | D. Schroder Threes ATL @ CHA | 1.5 | 1.5 | +177 | -8.5pp | -8.5pp | 11 snapshots | 3.39 |
gameMoneyline | SAC ML POR @ SAC | +190 | +280 | +280 | -7.9pp | -7.9pp | 38 snapshots | 3.15 |
propRebounds | P. George Rebounds NY @ BOS | 4.5 | 4.5 | -116 | +7.8pp | +7.8pp | 37 snapshots | 3.11 |
propThrees | J. Hart Threes NY @ BOS | 1.5 | 1.5 | -125 | +7.7pp | +7.7pp | 37 snapshots | 3.08 |
gameTotal | O/U 238.5 NO @ UTAH | 241.5 | 238.5 | -112 | -3 | line moved | 44 snapshots | 3 |
gameTotal | O/U 228.5 HOU @ SA | 225.5 | 228.5 | -105 | +3 | line moved | 48 snapshots | 3 |
gameSpread | MIA +1.5 DET @ MIA | -1.5 | 1.5 | -115 | +3 | line moved | 43 snapshots | 3 |
gameSpread | WSH +7.5 TOR @ WSH | 4.5 | 7.5 | -115 | +3 | line moved | 40 snapshots | 3 |
gameTotal | O/U 234.5 MIN @ ORL | 237.5 | 234.5 | -115 | -3 | line moved | 47 snapshots | 3 |
gameMoneyline | WSH ML TOR @ WSH | +154 | +215 | +215 | -7.3pp | -7.3pp | 40 snapshots | 2.93 |
propRebounds | F. Wagner Rebounds MIN @ ORL | 5.5 | 5.5 | +106 | -7.2pp | -7.2pp | 22 snapshots | 2.9 |
propPoints | A. Thompson Points HOU @ SA | 17.5 | 15.5 | -119 | -2 | line moved | 24 snapshots | 2.58 |
propAssists | A. Edwards Assists MIN @ ORL | 3.5 | 3.5 | +124 | -6.2pp | -6.2pp | 19 snapshots | 2.46 |
propAssists | L. Doncic Assists LAC @ LAL | 7.5 | 7.5 | +103 | -5.7pp | -5.7pp | 19 snapshots | 2.3 |
propPoints | C. Wilson Points CHI @ MIL | 15.5 | 17.5 | -116 | +2 | line moved | 23 snapshots | 2.29 |
propThrees | T. Johnson Threes TOR @ WSH | 1.5 | 1.5 | -101 | -5.7pp | -5.7pp | 13 snapshots | 2.27 |
propPoints | W. Kessler Points LAC @ LAL | 14.5 | 14.5 | -127 | +5.6pp | +5.6pp | 13 snapshots | 2.24 |
propThrees | F. Wagner Threes MIN @ ORL | 1.5 | 1.5 | +112 | +5.4pp | +5.4pp | 21 snapshots | 2.17 |
propPoints | A. Sengun Points HOU @ SA | 20.5 | 18.5 | -105 | -2 | line moved | 27 snapshots | 2.16 |
propThrees | J. Giddey Threes CHI @ MIL | 1.5 | 1.5 | +106 | -5.3pp | -5.3pp | 27 snapshots | 2.13 |
Team Power Ratings
Model offense / defense in pts per game vs league average (115.61) · 2027 season, prior season regressed in
| # | Team | Record | Net pts/g | Off | Def | Win% vs Avg | L10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2-0 | +7.68 | +1.15 | +6.53 | 73.9% | 2-0 | W2 | |
| 2 | 1-0 | +5.43 | +1.59 | +3.84 | 67.5% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 3 | 0-1 | +4.57 | +2.06 | +2.51 | 64.8% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 4 | 0-1 | +4.38 | -0.59 | +4.97 | 64.3% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 5 | 1-0 | +4.09 | +0.36 | +3.73 | 63.3% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 6 | 1-0 | +3.80 | +0.32 | +3.48 | 62.4% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 7 | 0-1 | +3.63 | -0.22 | +3.85 | 61.9% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 8 | 1-0 | +3.32 | -0.02 | +3.34 | 60.9% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 9 | 1-0 | +3.27 | +2.21 | +1.05 | 60.7% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 10 | 0-1 | +2.62 | +2.50 | +0.12 | 58.6% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 11 | 0-1 | +2.16 | +1.96 | +0.20 | 57.1% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 12 | 1-0 | +2.14 | +1.00 | +1.15 | 57.1% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 13 | 1-0 | +1.89 | -0.88 | +2.77 | 56.3% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 14 | 1-0 | +1.83 | +2.55 | -0.72 | 56.1% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 15 | 1-0 | +1.77 | +0.32 | +1.45 | 55.9% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 16 | 2-0 | +0.53 | -0.35 | +0.88 | 51.8% | 2-0 | W2 | |
| 17 | 0-1 | +0.25 | +2.80 | -2.55 | 50.8% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 18 | 0-1 | +0.06 | +0.53 | -0.47 | 50.2% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 19 | 0-1 | -1.05 | -3.42 | +2.38 | 46.5% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 20 | 0-1 | -1.39 | -1.12 | -0.27 | 45.4% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 21 | 1-0 | -2.77 | -0.23 | -2.54 | 40.9% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 22 | 0-1 | -2.93 | +0.16 | -3.09 | 40.4% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 23 | 0-1 | -4.27 | -1.19 | -3.08 | 36.1% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 24 | 0-1 | -4.41 | -3.06 | -1.35 | 35.6% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 25 | 1-0 | -4.80 | -1.62 | -3.19 | 34.5% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 26 | 0-1 | -5.27 | -0.69 | -4.58 | 33% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 27 | 0-1 | -6.18 | +0.62 | -6.79 | 30.3% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 28 | 0-1 | -6.52 | -6.59 | +0.08 | 29.4% | 0-1 | L1 | |
| 29 | 1-0 | -6.84 | -1.08 | -5.76 | 28.4% | 1-0 | W1 | |
| 30 | 0-1 | -7.38 | -3.79 | -3.60 | 26.9% | 0-1 | L1 |

















