Tue, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM CTLines: DraftKings + 9 feeds
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers · 103-59
Model 4.6 · ESPN 52.3%
@
Proj total 8.6
TB
Tampa Bay Rays · 98-64
Model 4 · ESPN 47.7%
78°F · gusts 28 mph · precip 0%· Tropicana Field
Markets
Moneyline · Run Line · Total
Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line
Moneyline
MIL ML
Fair -118 · Model 54.1%
-124
DKEdge -1.3% · EV -2.3%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
TB ML
Fair +118 · Model 45.9%
+111
CZREdge -1.5% · EV -3.1%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Run Line
MIL -1.5
Fair +146 · Model 40.6%
+143
BREdge -0.6% · EV -1.3%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
TB +1.5
Fair -146 · Model 59.4%
-164
FDEdge -2.7% · EV -4.4%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Total
Over 7.5
Fair -132 · Model 52.6%
+112
UNIEdge +5.4% · EV +11.5%
Kelly ¼: 2.57% of bankroll ($25.70 of $1000)
Under 7
Fair +132 · Model 43.1%
+100
MGMEdge -6.9% · EV -13.8%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Line shopping · every book
| Book | MIL ML | TB ML | MIL Run Line | TB Run Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -124 | +103 | -1.5+141 | +1.5-171 | o7-114 | u7-105 |
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 | -1.5+136 | +1.5-164 | o7.5+110 | u7.5-134 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 | -1.5+140 | +1.5-170 | o7-120 | u7+100 |
| Caesars | -135 | +111 | -1.5+143 | +1.5-170 | o7-107 | u7-112 |
| bet365 | -124 | +104 | -1.5+142 | +1.5-167 | o7.5+110 | u7.5-130 |
| BetRivers | -124 | +105 | -1.5+143 | +1.5-177 | o7-109 | u7-110 |
| Unibet | -125 | +102 | -1.5+140 | +1.5-179 | o7.5+112 | u7.5-137 |
| Consensus | -124 | +104 | -1.5+140 | +1.5-170 | o7.5-107 | u7.5-117 |
| Opening Line | -118 | -102 | -1.5+150 | +1.5-185 | o8.5-105 | u8.5-115 |
Game Props
MIL @ TB · Player Props
67 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL | RBI | 0.5 | 0.58 | +0.08 | +265DK | -388DK | Over 0.5 | 32.0 | 27.4 | +212 | +4.6% | +16.8% | +2.5pp | ||
 Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL | RBI | 0.5 | 0.55 | +0.05 | +276DK | -406DK | Over 0.5 | 31.0 | 26.6 | +223 | +4.4% | +16.6% | -0.8pp | ||
 Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB | Total Bases | 1.5 | 1.73 | +0.23 | o0.5-176UD | -184DK | Over 0.5 | 74.3 | 63.8 | -289 | +10.6% | +16.5% | +1.4pp | ||
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB | RBI | 0.5 | 0.69 | +0.19 | +216DK | -310DK | Over 0.5 | 36.6 | 31.6 | +173 | +5.0% | +15.7% | +0.8pp | ||
 Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB | RBI | 0.5 | 0.64 | +0.14 | +227DK | -327DK | Over 0.5 | 35.1 | 30.6 | +185 | +4.5% | +14.8% | -0.3pp | ||
 Jake Bauers MIL 1B · vs TB | RBI | 0.5 | 0.58 | +0.08 | +236DK | -341DK | Over 0.5 | 33.5 | 29.8 | +199 | +3.7% | +12.6% | -1.4pp | ||
 Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL | Total Bases | 1.5 | 2.01 | +0.51 | o0.5-189UD | -183DK | Over 0.5 | 73.4 | 65.4 | -277 | +8.1% | +12.3% | +0.3pp | ||
Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL | Total Bases | 1.5 | 1.61 | +0.11 | o0.5-189UD | -198DK | Over 0.5 | 73.4 | 65.4 | -276 | +8.0% | +12.3% | +0.9pp | ||
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB | Home Runs | 1+ | 0.19 | -0.81 | +710DK | — | 1+ Home Runs | 13.7 | 12.3 | +630 | +1.4% | +11.0% | +1.1pp | ||
 Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL | RBI | 0.5 | 0.56 | +0.06 | +234DK | -339DK | Over 0.5 | 33.2 | 29.9 | +201 | +3.3% | +10.9% | +2.0pp | ||
 Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB | Home Runs | 1+ | 0.08 | -0.92 | +1600DK | — | 1+ Home Runs | 6.4 | 5.9 | +1462 | +0.5% | +8.8% | +0.1pp | ||
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL | Home Runs | 1+ | 0.12 | -0.88 | +1120DK | — | 1+ Home Runs | 8.9 | 8.2 | +1024 | +0.7% | +8.6% | -1.4pp | ||
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB | RBI | 0.5 | 0.44 | -0.06 | +281DK | -413DK | Over 0.5 | 28.5 | 26.2 | +251 | +2.3% | +8.6% | +0.2pp | ||
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 2.05 | +0.55 | +125DK | -162UD | Over 1.5 | 48.0 | 44.4 | +108 | +3.6% | +8.0% | +0.6pp | ||
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 1.91 | +0.41 | +122UD | -149DK | Over 1.5 | 48.6 | 45.0 | +106 | +3.5% | +7.9% | +2.1pp | ||
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL | Home Runs | 1+ | 0.15 | -0.85 | +880DK | — | 1+ Home Runs | 11.0 | 10.2 | +809 | +0.8% | +7.8% | -2.1pp | ||
 Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB | Total Bases | 1.5 | 1.99 | +0.49 | +114UD | -142DK | Over 1.5 | 50.0 | 46.7 | -100 | +3.3% | +7.0% | +0.4pp | ||
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB | Runs | 0.5 | 0.54 | +0.04 | +219DK | -315DK | Over 0.5 | 33.5 | 31.3 | +199 | +2.1% | +6.9% | -1.3pp | ||
Jake Bauers MIL 1B · vs TB | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 2.02 | +0.52 | +114UD | -147DK | Over 1.5 | 49.8 | 46.7 | +101 | +3.1% | +6.6% | -0.3pp | ||
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 2.28 | +0.78 | +102UD | -123DK | Over 1.5 | 52.7 | 49.5 | -111 | +3.2% | +6.5% | +2.4pp | ||
 William Contreras MIL C · vs TB | RBI | 0.5 | 0.62 | +0.12 | +185DK | -262DK | Over 0.5 | 37.3 | 35.1 | +168 | +2.2% | +6.3% | +1.3pp | ||
 Garrett Mitchell MIL CF · vs TB | RBI | 0.5 | 0.46 | -0.04 | +250DK | -364DK | Over 0.5 | 30.2 | 28.6 | +231 | +1.6% | +5.7% | -0.5pp | ||
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL | Total Bases | 1.5 | 1.79 | +0.29 | +139DK | -182UD | Over 1.5 | 44.2 | 41.8 | +126 | +2.4% | +5.6% | +0.8pp | ||
Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB | RBI | 0.5 | 0.59 | +0.09 | +185UD | -261DK | Over 0.5 | 36.9 | 35.1 | +171 | +1.8% | +5.2% | -0.3pp | ||
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB | Home Runs | 1+ | 0.14 | -0.86 | +900DK | — | 1+ Home Runs | 10.5 | 10.0 | +852 | +0.5% | +5.0% | -0.5pp | ||
Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 1.99 | +0.49 | +105UD | -132DK | Over 1.5 | 51.2 | 48.8 | -105 | +2.4% | +5.0% | +5.0pp | ||
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 2.35 | +0.85 | +104UD | -134DK | Over 1.5 | 51.2 | 49.0 | -105 | +2.2% | +4.5% | +0.9pp | ||
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL | RBI | 0.5 | 0.64 | +0.14 | +160DK | -225DK | Over 0.5 | 39.7 | 38.5 | +152 | +1.2% | +3.2% | +0.7pp | ||
William Contreras MIL C · vs TB | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 2.21 | +0.71 | -106UD | -120DK | Over 1.5 | 53.1 | 51.5 | -113 | +1.6% | +3.2% | +1.9pp | ||
 Chandler Simpson TB LF · vs MIL | Total Bases | 1.5 | 1.37 | -0.13 | +170UD | -204DK | Over 1.5 | 38.1 | 37.0 | +162 | +1.1% | +2.9% | +1.6pp | ||
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL | Home Runs | 1+ | 0.26 | -0.74 | +416DK | — | 1+ Home Runs | 19.9 | 19.4 | +403 | +0.5% | +2.7% | -1.9pp | ||
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 2.3 | +0.8 | -108UD | -120DK | Over 1.5 | 53.2 | 51.9 | -114 | +1.3% | +2.5% | +0.8pp | ||
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB | Runs | 0.5 | 0.67 | +0.17 | +146DK | -203DK | Over 0.5 | 41.6 | 40.7 | +140 | +0.9% | +2.3% | -0.1pp | ||
Garrett Mitchell MIL CF · vs TB | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 1.74 | +0.24 | +120DK | -157UD | Over 1.5 | 45.8 | 45.5 | +118 | +0.3% | +0.8% | +0.5pp | ||
William Contreras MIL C · vs TB | Total Bases | 1.5 | 1.59 | +0.09 | +141DK | -176UD | Over 1.5 | 41.8 | 41.5 | +139 | +0.3% | +0.7% | +1.1pp | ||
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 2.31 | +0.81 | -116DK | -108UD | Over 1.5 | 54.0 | 53.7 | -117 | +0.3% | +0.6% | +0.9pp | ||
Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL | Home Runs | 1+ | 0.14 | -0.86 | +760DK | — | 1+ Home Runs | 11.6 | 11.6 | +762 | -0.0% | -0.2% | -2.3pp | ||
Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 2.52 | +1.02 | -140DK | +107UD | Over 1.5 | 57.7 | 58.3 | -136 | -0.6% | -1.1% | +1.3pp | ||
Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB | Runs | 0.5 | 0.74 | +0.24 | +103UD | -140DK | Over 0.5 | 48.2 | 49.3 | +107 | -1.1% | -2.1% | +0.8pp | ||
Chandler Simpson TB LF · vs MIL | H+R+RBI | 1.5 | 1.79 | +0.29 | -105UD | -124DK | Over 1.5 | 50.1 | 51.2 | -100 | -1.1% | -2.2% | +1.5pp |
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