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LAABAL
Final
Tue, Aug 4 · 5:35 PM CT
FinalTue, Aug 4 · 5:35 PM CT 1 / 15
Game 1 of 15 · ← → keys to navigate · swipe on mobile
Live Model·updated just now·Lineup Confirmed
Live Odds
No live market posted for this game yet.
Park & Weather
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Favors Neutral
Sky · Temp
78°F
Overcast
Wind
3 mph
Calm
Humid · Rain
81%
1% precip
Algo Boost
HR+2.5%
Runs+1.8%
K-0.7%
Park Factor 100
Pitcher Matchup · Today
LAA @ BALAWAY SP
vs BAL bats
Grayson Rodriguez
LAA · RHP · top pitch ? 96.2mph
Attackable· target Both
Both sides bleed — 1.66 L / 2.01 R
HR/9 vs L1.66
HR/9 vs R2.01
HR/FB%20.3%
Barrel%11.6%
HardHit%52.4%
FB%30.6%
HOME SP
vs LAA bats
Cade Povich
BAL · LHP · top pitch ? 91.9mph
Attackable· target LHB
L-side hole — 4.05 HR/9 vs LHB (vs 0.71 vs RHB)
HR/9 vs L4.05
HR/9 vs R0.71
HR/FB%16.4%
Barrel%9.7%
HardHit%45.2%
FB%32.3%
Top Hitters · This Game
splits-matched · pitcher-awareLAA bats vs Cade Povich (LHP)
#1
Mike Trout
LAA · Spot 2 · HB → Cade Povich
90%
elitevs LHP
.923
OPS
HR
4
/87 AB
SLG
.483
AVG
.299
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 42.6%Curveball 21.4%Slider 15.6%Changeup 11.2%
#2
Josh Lowe
LAA · Spot 7 · HB → Cade Povich
76%
elitevs LHP
.393
OPS
HR
—
/28 AB
SLG
.214
AVG
.179
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 42.6%Curveball 21.4%Slider 15.6%Changeup 11.2%
#3
Zach Neto
LAA · Spot 1 · HB → Cade Povich
69%
elitevs LHP
.809
OPS
HR
5
/110 AB
SLG
.455
AVG
.255
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 42.6%Curveball 21.4%Slider 15.6%Changeup 11.2%
BAL bats vs Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)
#1
Pete Alonso
BAL · Spot 2 · HB → Grayson Rodriguez
94%
elitevs RHP
.858
OPS
HR
18
/291 AB
SLG
.495
AVG
.258
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 53.4%Changeup 23.5%Curveball 12.2%Slider 10.9%
#2
Gunnar Henderson
BAL · Spot 3 · HB → Grayson Rodriguez
77%
elitevs RHP
.664
OPS
HR
12
/315 AB
SLG
.375
AVG
.216
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 53.4%Changeup 23.5%Curveball 12.2%Slider 10.9%
#3
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
BAL · Spot 4 · HB → Grayson Rodriguez
74%
elitevs RHP
.469
OPS
HR
—
/23 AB
SLG
.261
AVG
.174
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 53.4%Changeup 23.5%Curveball 12.2%Slider 10.9%
ConfirmedModel 11.9 · sorted by kHR ↓
Home SP vs Away Bats· 5:35 PM CT
LAAvsCade Povich
BAL LHP · ? 91.9mph · 9 hitters
| Hitter | Team | Matchup | Verdict | TestScore | Ceiling | Zone Fit | HR Form | ↓ kHR | Pitches | BIP | ISO | xwOBA | xwOBAcon | SwStr% | PulledBrl% | Brl/BIP% | SweetSpot% | FB% | HH% | LA | Likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Trout elite Barrel 17%, power ISO .209, off-platoon but elite power | | vs LHPPovich | 🔥 Strong | 70.800 | 68.000 | .560 | 98% | 81.180 | 1,626 | 232 | .209 | .395 | .520 | 9.2% | 6.7% | 17.2% | 36.5% | 33.9% | 48.1% | 17.4 | 65 |
Josh Lowe strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .231, pull-side power | | vs LHPPovich | 🔥 Strong | 76.800 | 62.900 | .450 | 92% | 78.900 | 1,821 | 289 | .231 | .333 | .470 | 17.4% | 5.9% | 12.2% | 35.5% | 34.1% | 44.9% | 16.6 | 59 |
Zach Neto strong Barrel 12%, pull-side power, off-platoon but elite power | | vs LHPPovich | 🔥 Strong | 70.800 | 59.000 | .450 | 80% | 75.220 | 1,903 | 275 | .196 | .306 | .401 | 16.8% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 35.1% | 36.6% | 39.6% | 21.9 | 57 |
Moisés Ballesteros borderline · only at +500 odds or better | | vs LHPPovich | ⚠️ Dart | 50.800 | 44.700 | .390 | 63% | 59.120 | 257 | 45 | .176 | .413 | .535 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 8.8% | 32.6% | 31.5% | 43.2% | 15.2 | 45 |
Denzer Guzman off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap | | vs LHPPovich | 🧊 Low heat | 46.800 | 40.000 | .380 | 71% | 56.080 | 168 | 20 | .167 | .281 | .368 | 11.3% | 3.4% | 8.3% | 32.5% | 31.3% | 42.5% | 15.0 | 42 |
Tyler Heineman off-platoon | | vs LHPPovich | 🚫 Pass | 32.800 | 39.900 | .360 | 41% | 45.080 | 679 | 118 | .127 | .369 | .497 | 11.3% | 2.5% | 6.3% | 31.9% | 30.5% | 39.5% | 14.3 | 38 |
Wade Meckler low Barrel, flat power | | vs LHPPovich | 🚫 Pass | 30.700 | 37.100 | .330 | 30% | 41.600 | 901 | 145 | .092 | .352 | .473 | 11.3% | 1.8% | 4.6% | 31.4% | 29.8% | 36.9% | 13.7 | 35 |
Nolan Schanuel low Barrel, flat power | | vs LHPPovich | 🚫 Pass | 30.700 | 34.000 | .400 | 30% | 38.780 | 1,494 | 286 | .108 | .329 | .472 | 7.5% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 35.3% | 19.7% | 32.9% | 11.3 | 35 |
Vaughn Grissom low Barrel, flat power | | vs LHPPovich | 🚫 Pass | 30.700 | 30.800 | .320 | 7% | 38.160 | 445 | 81 | .029 | .247 | .299 | 11.3% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 30.4% | 28.6% | 32.2% | 12.5 | 31 |
Away SP vs Home Bats· 5:35 PM CT
BALvsGrayson Rodriguez
LAA RHP · ? 96.2mph · 9 hitters
| Hitter | Team | Matchup | Verdict | TestScore | Ceiling | Zone Fit | HR Form | ↓ kHR | Pitches | BIP | ISO | xwOBA | xwOBAcon | SwStr% | PulledBrl% | Brl/BIP% | SweetSpot% | FB% | HH% | LA | Likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pete Alonso strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .214, 94.0 EV | | vs RHPRodriguez | 🔥 Strong | 74.800 | 91.600 | .580 | 90% | 78.680 | 1,895 | 299 | .214 | .377 | .528 | 11.9% | 4.4% | 12.5% | 35.0% | 30.7% | 55.1% | 15.3 | 72 |
Colton Cowser on-platoon | | vs RHPRodriguez | 🔥 Strong | 66.800 | 80.800 | .560 | 77% | 69.500 | 1,404 | 199 | .189 | .332 | .389 | 11.3% | 3.9% | 9.4% | 32.8% | 31.8% | 44.2% | 15.4 | 65 |
Carlos Narváez on-platoon (matchup soft) | | vs RHPRodriguez | ⚠️ Dart | 62.800 | 80.800 | .560 | 65% | 66.460 | 1,739 | 292 | .178 | .353 | .451 | 11.3% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 32.7% | 31.6% | 43.4% | 15.2 | 64 |
Coby Mayo on-platoon (matchup soft) | | vs RHPRodriguez | ⚠️ Dart | 58.800 | 79.800 | .550 | 68% | 63.660 | 1,147 | 179 | .171 | .345 | .411 | 11.3% | 3.5% | 8.6% | 32.6% | 31.4% | 42.8% | 15.1 | 62 |
Christian Encarnacion-Strand on-platoon (matchup soft) | | vs RHPRodriguez | ⚠️ Dart | 58.800 | 77.700 | .550 | 71% | 63.520 | 534 | 98 | .169 | .299 | .396 | 11.3% | 3.5% | 8.5% | 32.5% | 31.4% | 42.7% | 15.0 | 61 |
Christian Franklin no standout edge | | vs RHPRodriguez | 🧊 Low heat | 44.800 | 76.000 | .540 | 15% | 53.840 | 12 | 2 | .000 | .295 | — | 11.3% | 3.1% | 7.5% | 32.2% | 31.0% | 41.2% | 14.7 | 57 |
Gunnar Henderson no standout edge | | vs RHPRodriguez | 🧊 Low heat | 44.800 | 75.200 | .510 | 63% | 53.180 | 1,973 | 339 | .177 | .302 | .424 | 11.8% | 3.0% | 7.0% | 29.9% | 26.4% | 44.6% | 11.9 | 56 |
Jackson Holliday no standout edge | | vs RHPRodriguez | 🧊 Low heat | 44.800 | 76.100 | .520 | 50% | 52.780 | 2,531 | 446 | .133 | .339 | .429 | 11.3% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 32.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 14.4 | 56 |
Leody Taveras flat power · skip unless props are cheap | | vs RHPRodriguez | 🧊 Low heat | 44.800 | 70.200 | .500 | 34% | 50.580 | 702 | 121 | .099 | .264 | .357 | 11.3% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 31.5% | 30.0% | 37.4% | 13.8 | 53 |
Model 11.9 · BPS · PVS · σ-logit HR% · real vsHR splits · zone-fit composite · cross-team enforced
Click any column header to sort
Show raw lineup boards (Confirmed / Projected status)
Away SP vs Home Bats
Grayson Rodriguez→BALbats
| # | Hitter | POS | B | Matchup | Tier | xwOBA | xBA | ISO | Barrel% | HardHit% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leody Taveras | RF | — | 73% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 2 | Pete Alonso | 1B | — | 94% | elite | 0.377 | 0.272 | 0.214 | 12.5 | 55.1 | 24.7 |
| 3 | Gunnar Henderson | SS | — | 77% | elite | 0.302 | 0.234 | 0.177 | 7.0 | 44.6 | 23.3 |
| 4 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B | — | 74% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 5 | Jackson Holliday | 2B | — | 73% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 6 | Coby Mayo | DH | — | 72% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 7 | Christian Franklin | LF | — | 71% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 8 | Colton Cowser | CF | — | 70% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 9 | Carlos Narváez | C | — | 70% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
Home SP vs Away Bats
Cade Povich→LAAbats
| # | Hitter | POS | B | Matchup | Tier | xwOBA | xBA | ISO | Barrel% | HardHit% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zach Neto | SS | — | 69% | elite | 0.306 | 0.202 | 0.196 | 12.4 | 39.6 | 31.8 |
| 2 | Mike Trout | CF | — | 90% | elite | 0.395 | 0.260 | 0.209 | 17.2 | 48.1 | 24.7 |
| 3 | Nolan Schanuel | 1B | — | 69% | elite | 0.329 | 0.282 | 0.108 | 2.4 | 32.9 | 14.4 |
| 4 | Vaughn Grissom | 2B | — | 68% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 5 | Denzer Guzman | 3B | — | 67% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 6 | Moisés Ballesteros | DH | — | 66% | elite | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 7 | Josh Lowe | RF | — | 76% | elite | 0.333 | 0.246 | 0.231 | 12.2 | 44.9 | 27.2 |
| 8 | Tyler Heineman | C | — | 64% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 9 | Wade Meckler | LF | — | 63% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
Park & Weather (PWM)
Oriole Park at Camden YardsTemp78°F
Wind3 mph Calm
ConditionsOvercast
RoofOpen
Park HR Factor0%
Weather HR Boost+2.5%
PWM+0.025
Humidity—
⚖️ Neutral environment — model output reflects true ability.