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CHCCIN
Pre-Game
Fri, Sep 18 · 5:40 PM CT
Pre-GameFri, Sep 18 · 5:40 PM CT 1 / 15
Game 1 of 15 · ← → keys to navigate · swipe on mobile
Live Model·updated just now·Lineup Confirmed
Live Odds
No live market posted for this game yet.
Park & Weather
Great American Ball Park
Favors Pitchers
Sky · Temp
72°F
Overcast
Wind
4 mph
IN from RF
Humid · Rain
86%
2% precip
Algo Boost
HR-5.8%
Runs-4.1%
K-0.4%
Park Factor 100
Pitcher Matchup · Today
CHC @ CINAWAY SP
vs CIN bats
Clay Holmes
CHC · RHP · top pitch ? 93.1mph
Tough pitcher
Not attackable — limits damage on both sides
HR/9 vs L0.59
HR/9 vs R0.40
HR/FB%11.5%
Barrel%4.5%
HardHit%41.8%
FB%19.0%
HOME SP
vs CHC bats
Chase Burns
CIN · RHP · top pitch ? 97.6mph
Tough pitcher
Not attackable — limits damage on both sides
HR/9 vs L1.29
HR/9 vs R0.46
HR/FB%12.1%
Barrel%8.1%
HardHit%38.1%
FB%29.1%
Top Hitters · This Game
splits-matched · pitcher-awareCHC bats vs Chase Burns (RHP)
#1
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · Spot 1 · HB → Chase Burns
78%
elitevs RHP
.980
OPS
HR
33
/402 AB
SLG
.609
AVG
.281
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 55.6%Slider 38.7%Changeup 5.2%Sinker 0.4%
#2
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · Spot 2 · HB → Chase Burns
65%
elitevs RHP
.789
OPS
HR
16
/383 AB
SLG
.444
AVG
.253
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 55.6%Slider 38.7%Changeup 5.2%Sinker 0.4%
#3
Alex Bregman
CHC · Spot 4 · HB → Chase Burns
63%
strongvs RHP
.787
OPS
HR
19
/453 AB
SLG
.450
AVG
.258
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 55.6%Slider 38.7%Changeup 5.2%Sinker 0.4%
CIN bats vs Clay Holmes (RHP)
#1
Elly De La Cruz
CIN · Spot 2 · HB → Clay Holmes
84%
elitevs RHP
.811
OPS
HR
18
/373 AB
SLG
.469
AVG
.260
Pitches they'll see
Sinker 49.4%Sweeper 17.7%Changeup 14.5%Cutter 10.4%
#2
Sal Stewart
CIN · Spot 3 · HB → Clay Holmes
76%
elitevs RHP
.801
OPS
HR
24
/439 AB
SLG
.476
AVG
.267
Pitches they'll see
Sinker 49.4%Sweeper 17.7%Changeup 14.5%Cutter 10.4%
#3
JJ Bleday
CIN · Spot 5 · HB → Clay Holmes
70%
elitevs RHP
.776
OPS
HR
17
/310 AB
SLG
.439
AVG
.219
Pitches they'll see
Sinker 49.4%Sweeper 17.7%Changeup 14.5%Cutter 10.4%
ConfirmedModel 11.9 · sorted by kHR ↓
Home SP vs Away Bats· 5:40 PM CT
CHCvsChase Burns
CIN RHP · ? 97.6mph · 9 hitters
| Hitter | Team | Matchup | Verdict | TestScore | Ceiling | Zone Fit | HR Form | ↓ kHR | Pitches | BIP | ISO | xwOBA | xwOBAcon | SwStr% | PulledBrl% | Brl/BIP% | SweetSpot% | FB% | HH% | LA | Likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pete Crow-Armstrong strong Barrel 14%, elite ISO .299, pull-side power | | vs RHPBurns | 🔥 Strong | 74.300 | 67.000 | .500 | 100% | 79.060 | 2,679 | 414 | .299 | .378 | .524 | 13.3% | 7.0% | 13.6% | 38.9% | 34.8% | 49.4% | 21.9 | 62 |
Ian Happ strong Barrel 11%, pull-side power (matchup soft) | | vs RHPBurns | ⚠️ Dart | 52.300 | 43.000 | .340 | 78% | 62.840 | 2,348 | 335 | .193 | .317 | .406 | 13.3% | 5.3% | 11.3% | 32.3% | 32.3% | 42.6% | 14.5 | 44 |
Seiya Suzuki off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap | | vs RHPBurns | 🧊 Low heat | 48.300 | 41.800 | .390 | 79% | 59.300 | 2,328 | 368 | .203 | .339 | .457 | 9.4% | 4.4% | 10.5% | 36.9% | 30.7% | 39.1% | 17.8 | 44 |
Carson Kelly off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap | | vs RHPBurns | 🧊 Low heat | 48.300 | 44.800 | .370 | 73% | 57.760 | 1,642 | 289 | .179 | .372 | .463 | 11.3% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 32.7% | 31.6% | 43.4% | 15.2 | 44 |
Michael Busch off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap | | vs RHPBurns | 🧊 Low heat | 46.300 | 40.200 | .360 | 61% | 56.360 | 2,617 | 413 | .155 | .330 | .431 | 11.2% | 3.6% | 9.1% | 34.0% | 34.4% | 39.7% | 15.5 | 42 |
Dansby Swanson off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap | | vs RHPBurns | 🧊 Low heat | 44.300 | 43.500 | .370 | 67% | 54.960 | 2,516 | 422 | .173 | .346 | .453 | 11.3% | 3.5% | 8.6% | 32.6% | 31.5% | 43.0% | 15.1 | 43 |
Alex Bregman off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap | | vs RHPBurns | 🧊 Low heat | 36.300 | 37.700 | .370 | 66% | 46.360 | 2,656 | 490 | .194 | .321 | .438 | 6.5% | 2.8% | 5.8% | 32.1% | 27.4% | 37.1% | 17.7 | 38 |
Michael Conforto off-platoon | | vs RHPBurns | 🚫 Pass | 30.300 | 40.400 | .340 | 50% | 44.080 | 1,895 | 297 | .134 | .333 | .366 | 11.3% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 32.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 14.4 | 37 |
Nico Hoerner low Barrel, flat power | | vs RHPBurns | 🚫 Pass | 28.300 | 32.400 | .380 | 23% | 35.960 | 2,547 | 540 | .091 | .322 | .487 | 5.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 36.9% | 21.4% | 29.0% | 12.0 | 33 |
Away SP vs Home Bats· 5:40 PM CT
CINvsClay Holmes
CHC RHP · ? 93.1mph · 9 hitters
| Hitter | Team | Matchup | Verdict | TestScore | Ceiling | Zone Fit | HR Form | ↓ kHR | Pitches | BIP | ISO | xwOBA | xwOBAcon | SwStr% | PulledBrl% | Brl/BIP% | SweetSpot% | FB% | HH% | LA | Likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eugenio Suárez elite Barrel 15%, elite ISO .298, 93.5 EV | | vs RHPHolmes | 🔥 Strong | 78.300 | 68.300 | .490 | 100% | 83.560 | 2,562 | 392 | .298 | .399 | .491 | 11.3% | 6.5% | 14.9% | 34.5% | 34.0% | 52.3% | 17.4 | 64 |
Elly De La Cruz elite Barrel 16%, power ISO .233, 94.8 EV | | vs RHPHolmes | 🔥 Strong | 66.300 | 52.200 | .380 | 99% | 78.420 | 2,328 | 363 | .233 | .375 | .535 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 16.4% | 36.3% | 26.8% | 53.8% | 9.8 | 54 |
Sal Stewart strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .206 (matchup soft) | | vs RHPHolmes | ⚠️ Dart | 56.300 | 41.400 | .350 | 90% | 67.060 | 2,578 | 443 | .206 | .349 | .498 | 13.3% | 4.0% | 12.7% | 35.6% | 28.5% | 40.3% | 12.6 | 46 |
Tyler Stephenson park/wind suppresses (matchup soft) | | vs RHPHolmes | ⚠️ Dart | 52.300 | 40.800 | .340 | 73% | 60.940 | 1,334 | 183 | .190 | .365 | .442 | 11.3% | 3.9% | 9.5% | 32.9% | 31.8% | 44.2% | 15.4 | 43 |
JJ Bleday pull-side power, park/wind suppresses (matchup soft) | | vs RHPHolmes | ⚠️ Dart | 52.300 | 36.700 | .340 | 79% | 60.600 | 1,997 | 322 | .198 | .339 | .447 | 12.5% | 4.5% | 9.6% | 39.4% | 33.5% | 39.8% | 23.1 | 42 |
Héctor Rodríguez off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap | | vs RHPHolmes | 🧊 Low heat | 44.300 | 38.900 | .280 | 63% | 55.340 | 2,414 | 424 | .154 | .335 | .486 | 13.9% | 3.5% | 8.9% | 32.5% | 25.0% | 44.9% | 12.7 | 39 |
Carlos Jorge off-platoon | | vs RHPHolmes | 🚫 Pass | 30.300 | 32.600 | .310 | 15% | 45.140 | 82 | 13 | .000 | .164 | .150 | 11.3% | 3.1% | 7.5% | 32.2% | 31.0% | 41.2% | 14.7 | 34 |
Matt McLain off-platoon | | vs RHPHolmes | 🚫 Pass | 30.300 | 35.300 | .290 | 48% | 43.440 | 2,250 | 343 | .123 | .325 | .392 | 11.3% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 31.8% | 30.5% | 39.2% | 14.2 | 34 |
Jose Trevino off-platoon | | vs RHPHolmes | 🚫 Pass | 30.300 | 34.000 | .280 | 34% | 42.780 | 1,178 | 243 | .113 | .301 | .413 | 11.3% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 31.7% | 30.3% | 38.5% | 14.0 | 33 |
Model 11.9 · BPS · PVS · σ-logit HR% · real vsHR splits · zone-fit composite · cross-team enforced
Click any column header to sort
Show raw lineup boards (Confirmed / Projected status)
Away SP vs Home Bats
Clay Holmes→CINbats
| # | Hitter | POS | B | Matchup | Tier | xwOBA | xBA | ISO | Barrel% | HardHit% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Jorge | CF | — | 61% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | SS | — | 84% | elite | 0.375 | 0.282 | 0.233 | 16.4 | 53.8 | 27.6 |
| 3 | Sal Stewart | 1B | — | 76% | elite | 0.349 | 0.260 | 0.206 | 12.7 | 40.3 | 21.8 |
| 4 | Tyler Stephenson | DH | — | 62% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 5 | JJ Bleday | LF | — | 70% | elite | 0.339 | 0.238 | 0.198 | 9.6 | 39.8 | 22.3 |
| 6 | Eugenio Suárez | 3B | — | 60% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 7 | Héctor Rodríguez | RF | — | 67% | elite | 0.335 | 0.266 | 0.154 | 8.9 | 44.9 | 22.6 |
| 8 | Jose Trevino | C | — | 58% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 9 | Matt McLain | 2B | — | 57% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
Home SP vs Away Bats
Chase Burns→CHCbats
| # | Hitter | POS | B | Matchup | Tier | xwOBA | xBA | ISO | Barrel% | HardHit% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | — | 78% | elite | 0.378 | 0.266 | 0.299 | 13.6 | 49.4 | 25.9 |
| 2 | Seiya Suzuki | RF | — | 65% | elite | 0.339 | 0.245 | 0.203 | 10.5 | 39.1 | 24.1 |
| 3 | Michael Busch | 1B | — | 61% | strong | 0.330 | 0.231 | 0.155 | 9.1 | 39.7 | 23.1 |
| 4 | Alex Bregman | 3B | — | 63% | strong | 0.321 | 0.248 | 0.194 | 5.8 | 37.1 | 14.7 |
| 5 | Ian Happ | LF | — | 60% | strong | 0.317 | 0.208 | 0.193 | 11.3 | 42.6 | 29.9 |
| 6 | Nico Hoerner | 2B | — | 55% | ok | 0.322 | 0.299 | 0.091 | 1.5 | 29.0 | 8.6 |
| 7 | Michael Conforto | DH | — | 53% | ok | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 8 | Carson Kelly | C | — | 52% | ok | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 9 | Dansby Swanson | SS | — | 52% | ok | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
Park & Weather (PWM)
Great American Ball ParkTemp72°F
Wind4 mph IN from RF
ConditionsOvercast
RoofOpen
Park HR Factor0%
Weather HR Boost-5.8%
PWM-0.058
Humidity—
🌧️ Environment CAPS HR lane — fade marginal power bats.