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Live Model·updated just now·Lineup Confirmed
Live Odds
No live market posted for this game yet.
Park & Weather
Nationals Park
Favors Neutral
Sky · Temp
71°F
Partly Cloudy
Wind
4 mph
CROSS R→L
Humid · Rain
51%
1% precip
Algo Boost
HR+1.0%
Runs+0.7%
K-0.1%
Park Factor 101
Pitcher Matchup · Today
KC @ WSHAWAY SP
vs WSH bats
Michael Wacha
KC · RHP · top pitch ? 93.0mph
Tough pitcher
Not attackable — limits damage on both sides
HR/9 vs L0.98
HR/9 vs R0.80
HR/FB%12.8%
Barrel%5.4%
HardHit%35.8%
FB%25.8%
HOME SP
vs KC bats
Foster Griffin
WSH · LHP · top pitch ? 88.0mph
Attackable· target RHB
R-side hole — 1.71 HR/9 vs RHB (vs 1.27 vs LHB)
HR/9 vs L1.27
HR/9 vs R1.71
HR/FB%21.3%
Barrel%11.0%
HardHit%38.4%
FB%27.5%
Top Hitters · This Game
splits-matched · pitcher-awareKC bats vs Foster Griffin (LHP)
#1
Jac Caglianone
KC · Spot 3 · HB → Foster Griffin
84%
elitevs LHP
.810
OPS
HR
5
/80 AB
SLG
.500
AVG
.275
Pitches they'll see
Cutter 30.5%4-Seam 17.8%Sweeper 14.9%Sinker 11%
#2
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC · Spot 2 · HB → Foster Griffin
83%
elitevs LHP
.995
OPS
HR
2
/71 AB
SLG
.577
AVG
.352
Pitches they'll see
Cutter 30.5%4-Seam 17.8%Sweeper 14.9%Sinker 11%
#3
Starling Marte
KC · Spot 5 · HB → Foster Griffin
79%
elitevs LHP
.608
OPS
HR
—
/66 AB
SLG
.288
AVG
.258
Pitches they'll see
Cutter 30.5%4-Seam 17.8%Sweeper 14.9%Sinker 11%
WSH bats vs Michael Wacha (RHP)
#1
James Wood
WSH · Spot 1 · HB → Michael Wacha
93%
elitevs RHP
.956
OPS
HR
15
/205 AB
SLG
.546
AVG
.273
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 27.3%Changeup 22.6%Cutter 15.3%Sinker 15%
#2
CJ Abrams
WSH · Spot 4 · HB → Michael Wacha
75%
elitevs RHP
.928
OPS
HR
14
/206 AB
SLG
.549
AVG
.286
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 27.3%Changeup 22.6%Cutter 15.3%Sinker 15%
#3
Daylen Lile
WSH · Spot 6 · HB → Michael Wacha
63%
strongvs RHP
.748
OPS
HR
8
/224 AB
SLG
.446
AVG
.250
Pitches they'll see
4-Seam 27.3%Changeup 22.6%Cutter 15.3%Sinker 15%
ProjectedModel 11.9 · sorted by kHR ↓
Home SP vs Away Bats· 5:45 PM CT
KCvsFoster Griffin
WSH LHP · ? 88.0mph · 9 hitters
| Hitter | Team | Matchup | Verdict | TestScore | Ceiling | Zone Fit | HR Form | ↓ kHR | Pitches | BIP | ISO | xwOBA | xwOBAcon | SwStr% | PulledBrl% | Brl/BIP% | SweetSpot% | FB% | HH% | LA | Likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jac Caglianone elite Barrel 17%, power ISO .220, 94.1 EV | | vs LHPGriffin | 🔥 Strong | 68.600 | 67.200 | .450 | 99% | 80.500 | 1,143 | 175 | .220 | .379 | .546 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 17.1% | 38.9% | 25.1% | 58.9% | 8.0 | 61 |
Bobby Witt Jr. strong Barrel 12%, 93.2 EV (matchup soft) | | vs LHPGriffin | ⚠️ Dart | 58.600 | 61.900 | .470 | 67% | 68.200 | 1,330 | 244 | .169 | .390 | .568 | 11.2% | 3.3% | 12.0% | 38.2% | 27.2% | 52.0% | 17.2 | 56 |
Starling Marte strong Barrel 11% (matchup soft) | | vs LHPGriffin | ⚠️ Dart | 58.600 | 56.500 | .460 | 74% | 66.140 | 1,322 | 263 | .194 | .368 | .547 | 9.9% | 5.5% | 10.6% | 32.3% | 24.8% | 45.9% | 11.4 | 53 |
Salvador Perez off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap | | vs LHPGriffin | 🧊 Low heat | 46.600 | 48.200 | .360 | 59% | 57.100 | 1,260 | 238 | .130 | .284 | .416 | 14.4% | 3.8% | 9.5% | 32.2% | 28.9% | 40.9% | 16.6 | 45 |
Nick Loftin off-platoon | | vs LHPGriffin | 🚫 Pass | 32.600 | 49.700 | .390 | 49% | 46.380 | 733 | 141 | .149 | .321 | .386 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 7.4% | 32.2% | 31.0% | 41.2% | 14.7 | 42 |
Kameron Misner off-platoon | | vs LHPGriffin | 🚫 Pass | 32.600 | 48.100 | .380 | 47% | 45.340 | 846 | 128 | .132 | .310 | .385 | 11.3% | 2.7% | 6.6% | 32.0% | 30.6% | 39.9% | 14.4 | 41 |
Lane Thomas off-platoon | | vs LHPGriffin | 🚫 Pass | 32.600 | 45.800 | .360 | 48% | 44.040 | 554 | 81 | .112 | .283 | .296 | 11.3% | 2.2% | 5.6% | 31.7% | 30.2% | 38.4% | 14.0 | 39 |
Isaac Collins flat power, off-platoon | | vs LHPGriffin | 🚫 Pass | 30.600 | 46.100 | .360 | 31% | 43.120 | 1,061 | 165 | .091 | .309 | .399 | 9.0% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 32.0% | 27.2% | 40.2% | 17.5 | 39 |
Michael Massey low Barrel, flat power | | vs LHPGriffin | 🚫 Pass | 30.600 | 42.600 | .340 | 23% | 40.100 | 1,080 | 219 | .069 | .280 | .400 | 11.3% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 31.0% | 29.4% | 35.2% | 13.2 | 36 |
Away SP vs Home Bats· 5:45 PM CT
WSHvsMichael Wacha
KC RHP · ? 93.0mph · 9 hitters
| Hitter | Team | Matchup | Verdict | TestScore | Ceiling | Zone Fit | HR Form | ↓ kHR | Pitches | BIP | ISO | xwOBA | xwOBAcon | SwStr% | PulledBrl% | Brl/BIP% | SweetSpot% | FB% | HH% | LA | Likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
James Wood elite Barrel 23%, power ISO .251, 95.3 EV | | vs RHPWacha | 🔥 Strong | 68.600 | 83.100 | .370 | 100% | 87.820 | 1,505 | 202 | .251 | .417 | .567 | 12.4% | 6.8% | 23.0% | 42.2% | 29.4% | 59.3% | 10.6 | 67 |
CJ Abrams strong Barrel 10%, power ISO .238 (matchup soft) | | vs RHPWacha | ⚠️ Dart | 56.600 | 59.800 | .290 | 91% | 64.200 | 1,314 | 224 | .238 | .345 | .480 | 14.8% | 4.6% | 10.2% | 33.0% | 28.2% | 41.9% | 17.5 | 49 |
Daylen Lile off-platoon | | vs RHPWacha | 🚫 Pass | 34.600 | 51.500 | .300 | 49% | 46.500 | 1,361 | 258 | .148 | .315 | .457 | 12.5% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 35.5% | 34.4% | 34.1% | 17.1 | 41 |
Dylan Crews off-platoon | | vs RHPWacha | 🚫 Pass | 32.600 | 56.000 | .320 | 56% | 46.120 | 1,256 | 217 | .144 | .320 | .384 | 11.3% | 2.9% | 7.2% | 32.2% | 30.9% | 40.8% | 14.6 | 42 |
Drew Millas off-platoon | | vs RHPWacha | 🚫 Pass | 32.600 | 57.900 | .310 | 29% | 46.000 | 214 | 42 | .143 | .374 | .530 | 11.3% | 2.9% | 7.1% | 32.1% | 30.9% | 40.7% | 14.6 | 43 |
Jacob Young off-platoon | | vs RHPWacha | 🚫 Pass | 32.600 | 54.200 | .350 | 54% | 45.320 | 1,022 | 196 | .151 | .303 | .452 | 8.8% | 2.4% | 6.6% | 35.0% | 26.4% | 37.1% | 11.0 | 42 |
Jorbit Vivas low Barrel, flat power | | vs RHPWacha | 🚫 Pass | 30.600 | 50.400 | .280 | 32% | 41.400 | 257 | 43 | .089 | .287 | .286 | 11.3% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 31.3% | 29.8% | 36.7% | 13.6 | 38 |
Curtis Mead low Barrel, flat power | | vs RHPWacha | 🚫 Pass | 30.600 | 51.100 | .280 | 28% | 41.280 | 1,030 | 177 | .088 | .309 | .394 | 11.3% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 31.3% | 29.8% | 36.6% | 13.6 | 38 |
Nasim Nuñez flat power, off-platoon | | vs RHPWacha | 🚫 Pass | 30.600 | 41.400 | .290 | 4% | 35.320 | 1,041 | 170 | .043 | .272 | .360 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 17.5% | 20.3% | 9.5 | 33 |
Model 11.9 · BPS · PVS · σ-logit HR% · real vsHR splits · zone-fit composite · cross-team enforced
Click any column header to sort
Show raw lineup boards (Confirmed / Projected status)
Away SP vs Home Bats
Michael Wacha→WSHbats
| # | Hitter | POS | B | Matchup | Tier | xwOBA | xBA | ISO | Barrel% | HardHit% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood | RF | — | 93% | elite | 0.417 | 0.271 | 0.251 | 23.0 | 59.3 | 30.3 |
| 2 | Jorbit Vivas | 3B | — | 61% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 3 | Curtis Mead | 1B | — | 61% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 4 | CJ Abrams | SS | — | 75% | elite | 0.345 | 0.257 | 0.238 | 10.2 | 41.9 | 20.8 |
| 5 | Dylan Crews | LF | — | 60% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 6 | Daylen Lile | DH | — | 63% | strong | 0.315 | 0.254 | 0.148 | 6.9 | 34.1 | 16.9 |
| 7 | Jacob Young | CF | — | 60% | strong | 0.303 | 0.257 | 0.151 | 6.6 | 37.1 | 18.7 |
| 8 | Drew Millas | C | — | 57% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 9 | Nasim Nuñez | 2B | — | 44% | avoid | 0.272 | 0.224 | 0.043 | 6.0 | 20.3 | 22.8 |
Home SP vs Away Bats
Foster Griffin→KCbats
| # | Hitter | POS | B | Matchup | Tier | xwOBA | xBA | ISO | Barrel% | HardHit% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lane Thomas | RF | — | 60% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | — | 83% | elite | 0.390 | 0.309 | 0.169 | 12.0 | 52.0 | 17.0 |
| 3 | Jac Caglianone | 1B | — | 84% | elite | 0.379 | 0.280 | 0.220 | 17.1 | 58.9 | 30.4 |
| 4 | Isaac Collins | LF | — | 58% | strong | 0.309 | 0.236 | 0.091 | 5.9 | 40.2 | 23.9 |
| 5 | Starling Marte | DH | — | 79% | elite | 0.368 | 0.299 | 0.194 | 10.6 | 45.9 | 13.9 |
| 6 | Salvador Perez | C | — | 59% | strong | 0.284 | 0.223 | 0.130 | 9.5 | 40.9 | 19.5 |
| 7 | Nick Loftin | 3B | — | 58% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 8 | Michael Massey | 2B | — | 57% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
| 9 | Kameron Misner | CF | — | 57% | strong | 0.310 | 0.245 | 0.150 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
Park & Weather (PWM)
Nationals ParkTemp71°F
Wind4 mph CROSS R→L
ConditionsPartly Cloudy
RoofOpen
Park HR Factor+1%
Weather HR Boost+1.0%
PWM+0.020
Humidity—
⚖️ Neutral environment — model output reflects true ability.