Clutch Edge Card
Pitcher cross-table · bats to target · the edge · best plays
AI Edge ReadClutch AI
Junior Caminero is the only Tampa HR button that matters: .262 ISO, 92.9 EV, 13.5% barrel, .971 OPS vs lefties, and a slate-best 78.7 HR score against MacKenzie Gore’s 9.2% barrel lane, with +424 still playable for a bat carrying a 20.4% model HR clip. The clean support piece is Yandy Díaz at the top for total bases/runs, but not as a long-ball buy, because the launch shape is still flatter than the raw contact suggests. Jonathan Aranda is the trap fade despite the No. 2 slot and on-paper platoon edge — just a .150 ISO, 8.4% pull-air, and only one HR in 121 AB vs lefties. Victor Mesa Jr. has the pull-side look, but the 31.0% K rate keeps him in dart territory, not core exposure.
TEX
669022
MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
TEX
HR Risk
vs LHB0.65
vs RHB1.33
Favorable for batter Favorable for pitcher
| Type | # | % | BA | wOBA | SLG | K% | Whiff% | PutAway% | HH% | Velo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | 942 | 45.6% | 0.243 | 0.310 | 0.381 | 22.3% | 22.0% | 21.3% | 40.3% | 95.4 |
| Curveball | 412 | 19.9% | 0.219 | 0.297 | 0.427 | 29.1% | 31.3% | 18.5% | 46.3% | 81.8 |
| Changeup | 228 | 11% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 86.6 |
| Slider | 203 | 9.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 85.7 |
| Cutter | 172 | 8.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 89.9 |
| Sinker | 111 | 5.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 95.3 |
4-Seam
942 pitches · 45.6% · 95.4 mph
BA
0.243
wOBA
0.310
SLG
0.381
K%
22.3%
Whiff%
22.0%
PutAway%
21.3%
HH%
40.3%
Curveball
412 pitches · 19.9% · 81.8 mph
BA
0.219
wOBA
0.297
SLG
0.427
K%
29.1%
Whiff%
31.3%
PutAway%
18.5%
HH%
46.3%
Changeup
228 pitches · 11% · 86.6 mph
BA
—
wOBA
—
SLG
—
K%
—
Whiff%
—
PutAway%
—
HH%
—
Slider
203 pitches · 9.8% · 85.7 mph
BA
—
wOBA
—
SLG
—
K%
—
Whiff%
—
PutAway%
—
HH%
—
Cutter
172 pitches · 8.3% · 89.9 mph
BA
—
wOBA
—
SLG
—
K%
—
Whiff%
—
PutAway%
—
HH%
—
Sinker
111 pitches · 5.4% · 95.3 mph
BA
—
wOBA
—
SLG
—
K%
—
Whiff%
—
PutAway%
—
HH%
—
TB · Confirmed Lineup
9 batters · vs LHP
| # | Batter | Odds | vsHR | ISO | xwOBA | EV | Brl% | HH% | PullAir% | FB% | LD% | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Junior Caminero RHB · 3B | +424 | 7 | 0.262 | 0.373 | 92.9 | 13.5% | 50.3% | 10.6% | 22.5% | 20.7% | 18.2% | 12.4% | — | 🔥 Strong strong Barrel 14%, elite ISO .262, on-platoon |
| 2 | Jonathan Aranda LHB · 1B | +620 | 1 | 0.150 | 0.357 | 91.0 | 10.4% | 45.5% | 8.4% | 30.5% | 27.9% | 23.2% | 11.5% | — | ⚠️ Dart strong Barrel 10%, on-platoon (matchup soft) |
| 4 | Victor Mesa Jr. LHB · RF | +637 | 1 | 0.178 | 0.289 | 90.8 | 9.5% | 41.4% | 15.1% | 27.9% | 18.9% | 31.0% | 9.7% | — | ⚠️ Dart pull-side power, on-platoon (matchup soft) |
| 1 | Yandy Díaz RHB · DH | +997 | 6 | 0.159 | 0.352 | 90.7 | 6.9% | 47.0% | 4.6% | 20.9% | 24.4% | 14.7% | 9.0% | — | 🧊 Low heat no standout edge |
| 5 | Jonny DeLuca RHB · CF | +1037 | 2 | 0.123 | 0.364 | 89.1 | 6.2% | 39.2% | 12.3% | 30.5% | 22.0% | 22.0% | 3.4% | — | 🧊 Low heat no standout edge |
| 8 | Nick Fortes RHB · C | +1050 | 1 | 0.120 | 0.321 | 89.0 | 6.0% | 39.0% | 12.2% | 30.4% | 22.0% | 19.4% | 5.8% | — | 🧊 Low heat no standout edge |
| 9 | Taylor Walls SHB · SS | +1094 | 4 | 0.099 | 0.301 | 88.5 | 5.0% | 37.4% | 11.9% | 30.0% | 22.0% | 22.1% | 8.2% | — | 🧊 Low heat flat power · skip unless props are cheap |
| 6 | Chandler Simpson LHB · LF | +1308 | 0 | 0.060 | 0.264 | 83.9 | 0.0% | 14.4% | 4.0% | 14.1% | 21.7% | 9.2% | 4.8% | — | 🧊 Low heat flat power · skip unless props are cheap |
| 7 | Ben Williamson RHB · 2B | +1192 | 1 | 0.057 | 0.292 | 87.4 | 2.9% | 34.3% | 11.3% | 29.1% | 22.0% | 21.7% | 5.1% | — | 🧊 Low heat low Barrel, flat power · skip unless props are cheap |
TB
668984
Casey Legumina (RHP)
TB
HR Risk
vs LHB1.08
vs RHB1.04
Favorable for batter Favorable for pitcher
| Type | # | % | BA | wOBA | SLG | K% | Whiff% | PutAway% | HH% | Velo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | 294 | 40.4% | 0.211 | 0.286 | 0.368 | 24.4% | 25.3% | 19.1% | 43.9% | 91.1 |
| Sinker | 158 | 21.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 91.9 |
| Sweeper | 96 | 13.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 78.2 |
| Slider | 95 | 13% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 85.1 |
| Changeup | 85 | 11.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 79.9 |
4-Seam
294 pitches · 40.4% · 91.1 mph
BA
0.211
wOBA
0.286
SLG
0.368
K%
24.4%
Whiff%
25.3%
PutAway%
19.1%
HH%
43.9%
Sinker
158 pitches · 21.7% · 91.9 mph
BA
—
wOBA
—
SLG
—
K%
—
Whiff%
—
PutAway%
—
HH%
—
Sweeper
96 pitches · 13.2% · 78.2 mph
BA
—
wOBA
—
SLG
—
K%
—
Whiff%
—
PutAway%
—
HH%
—
Slider
95 pitches · 13% · 85.1 mph
BA
—
wOBA
—
SLG
—
K%
—
Whiff%
—
PutAway%
—
HH%
—
Changeup
85 pitches · 11.7% · 79.9 mph
BA
—
wOBA
—
SLG
—
K%
—
Whiff%
—
PutAway%
—
HH%
—
TEX · Confirmed Lineup
9 batters · vs RHP
| # | Batter | Odds | vsHR | ISO | xwOBA | EV | Brl% | HH% | PullAir% | FB% | LD% | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Austin Wynns RHB · C | +424 | 0 | 0.253 | 0.395 | 92.3 | 12.7% | 49.0% | 14.1% | 33.1% | 22.0% | 29.1% | 4.5% | — | 🔥 Strong strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .253, pull-side power |
| 1 | Wyatt Langford RHB · DH | +728 | 9 | 0.190 | 0.384 | 90.8 | 9.5% | 44.2% | 13.2% | 31.8% | 22.0% | 26.4% | 12.9% | — | ⚠️ Dart borderline · only at +500 odds or better |
| 8 | Evan Carter LHB · CF | +735 | 8 | 0.192 | 0.282 | 90.5 | 9.5% | 42.7% | 13.6% | 34.4% | 20.6% | 29.4% | 9.4% | — | ⚠️ Dart borderline · only at +500 odds or better |
| 3 | Brandon Nimmo LHB · RF | +720 | 7 | 0.166 | 0.373 | 92.2 | 11.7% | 51.8% | 8.0% | 26.9% | 30.7% | 21.6% | 8.2% | — | 🧊 Low heat off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap |
| 4 | Jake Burger RHB · 1B | +742 | 14 | 0.185 | 0.300 | 90.1 | 11.1% | 46.6% | 12.7% | 27.4% | 19.9% | 27.1% | 7.2% | — | 🧊 Low heat off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap |
| 6 | Cam Cauley RHB · 2B | +883 | 0 | 0.174 | 0.343 | 90.3 | 8.7% | 43.0% | 12.9% | 31.5% | 22.0% | 23.5% | 7.8% | — | 🧊 Low heat off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap |
| 2 | Ezequiel Duran RHB · 3B | +1229 | 10 | 0.172 | 0.303 | 88.5 | 6.4% | 35.3% | 8.1% | 22.3% | 24.5% | 23.3% | 6.9% | — | 🚫 Pass off-platoon |
| 5 | Nicky Lopez LHB · SS | +1229 | 1 | 0.158 | 0.333 | 89.4 | 6.6% | 42.3% | 6.7% | 21.3% | 22.8% | 13.6% | 4.9% | — | 🚫 Pass off-platoon |
| 7 | Alejandro Osuna LHB · LF | +1397 | 1 | 0.066 | 0.309 | 87.7 | 3.3% | 35.0% | 11.5% | 29.3% | 22.0% | 19.3% | 11.9% | — | 🚫 Pass low Barrel, flat power |
Model Takeaways
- 🔥TEX Pitcher vs TB Batters · Best upside batJunior Caminero (TB) leads — 78.7% HR score vs MacKenzie Gore (TEX).
- 🔥TB Pitcher vs TEX Batters · Best upside batAustin Wynns (TEX) leads — 78.7% HR score vs Casey Legumina (TB).
- 🌤Park / Weather (PWM)Tropicana Field · park HR -3% · weather HR -1% → PWM -0.04 — environment CAPS HR lane.