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MIL @ TB

Mon 7:00 PM CT

Mon, Oct 26 · 7:00 PM CTLines: DraftKings + 9 feeds

MIL

Milwaukee Brewers · 103-59

Model 4.6 · ESPN 50.7%

Proj total 8.6

Tampa Bay Rays · 98-64

Model 4 · ESPN 49.3%

76°F · gusts 31 mph · precip 0%· Tropicana Field

Markets

Moneyline · Run Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

MIL ML

Fair -106 · Model 51.5%

+103

CZR

Edge +2.2% · EV +4.5%

Kelly ¼: 1.10% of bankroll ($11.03 of $1000)

TB ML

Fair +106 · Model 48.5%

-108

Edge -3.4% · EV -6.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Run Line

MIL -1.5

Fair +162 · Model 38.2%

+175

365

Edge +1.8% · EV +5.0%

Kelly ¼: 0.72% of bankroll ($7.21 of $1000)

TB +1.5

Fair -162 · Model 61.8%

-205

Edge -5.4% · EV -8.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 7.5

Fair -132 · Model 52.7%

+114

365

Edge +6.0% · EV +12.7%

Kelly ¼: 2.80% of bankroll ($28.02 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair +132 · Model 38.9%

+124

Edge -5.8% · EV -13.0%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	MIL ML	TB ML	MIL Run Line	TB Run Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	-101	-120	-1.5+173	+1.5-212	o7-113	u7-107
FanDuel	+102	-120	-1.5+168	+1.5-205	o6.5-152	u6.5+124
BetMGM	+100	-120	-1.5+170	+1.5-210	o7-120	u7+100
Caesars	+103	-121	-1.5+174	+1.5-209	o7-108	u7-110
bet365	-101	-119	-1.5+175	+1.5-210	o7.5+114	u7.5-134
BetRivers	-110	-108	—	—	o7-110	u7-109
Unibet	-102	-120	-1.5+165	+1.5-213	o7.5+110	u7.5-141
Consensus	+100	-120	-1.5+172	+1.5-210	o7-116	u7-100
Opening Line	+101	-121	+1.5-216	-1.5+176	o7+102	u7-123

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Brewers hold slight edge in modestly higher total

The model makes Milwaukee a narrow favorite, projecting a 4.6-4.0 game with a 51.5% win probability and a small edge on both the moneyline and run line. Total scoring leans above the listed number, while Tampa Bay enters down 2-0 in the playoff series and carrying more notable injury absences.

Model projection is MIL 4.6, TB 4.0, with a fair total of 8.5 versus Over 7.5 priced at +114 and carrying 12.73% EV.
MIL moneyline at +103 shows a 51.5% model win probability and 4.55% EV; ESPN's win probability is also close at 50.7% MIL.
MIL -1.5 at +175 has 38.2% model probability and 5.05% EV, consistent with the Brewers' slight scoring edge.
Recent form favors Milwaukee: Brewers are on a 5-game winning streak, while the Rays are 3-2 over their last five; MIL also leads this playoff series 2-0.
Tampa Bay's injury list is longer, including Shane McClanahan (Out) plus multiple 60-day IL absences, while Milwaukee lists three 60-day IL pitchers/arms.

Props to watch

Christian Yelich Over 0.5 RBI (+268): highest listed prop EV at 23.28% with a 33.5% model probability.
Christian Yelich 1+ Home Runs (+870): boom-or-bust angle, but still carries 20.28% EV from a 12.4% model probability.
Brice Turang Over 0.5 RBI (+248): 34.0% model probability and 18.32% EV in a game where Milwaukee is projected for 4.6 runs.

Lean: Over 7.5

Injury Report

MIL

Quinn Priester SP60-Day-IL · Shoulder
Angel Zerpa RP60-Day-IL · Elbow
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-Day-IL · Elbow

Gavin Lux LF60-Day-IL · Shoulder
Shane McClanahan SPOut · Forearm
Jacob Melton LF60-Day-IL · Hamstring
Edwin Uceta RP60-Day-IL · Shoulder
Jonathan Heasley RP60-Day-IL · Elbow

Recent Form · Series

MIL

WWWWW

WWWLL

Current Series: MIL leads series 2-0

Regular Season Series: MIL wins series 2-1

Playoff Series: MIL leads series 2-0

Game Props

MIL @ TB · Player Props

66 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.69	+0.19	+268UD	-391DK	Over 0.5	33.5	27.2	+199	+6.3%	+23.3%	+0.7pp
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB	Home Runs	1+	0.19	-0.81	+870DK	—	1+ Home Runs	12.4	10.3	+706	+2.1%	+20.3%	-0.4pp
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.64	+0.14	+248UD	-359DK	Over 0.5	34.0	28.7	+194	+5.3%	+18.3%	+1.9pp
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL	RBI	0.5	0.56	+0.06	+267DK	-392DK	Over 0.5	31.7	27.2	+215	+4.5%	+16.3%	-0.1pp
Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL	RBI	0.5	0.58	+0.08	+258DK	-377DK	Over 0.5	32.3	27.9	+210	+4.4%	+15.6%	+0.7pp
Jake Bauers MIL 1B · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.58	+0.08	+230DK	-332DK	Over 0.5	33.8	30.3	+196	+3.5%	+11.5%	-0.4pp
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.05	+0.55	+135UD	-174DK	Over 1.5	47.3	42.6	+111	+4.8%	+11.2%	+1
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.35	+0.85	+131UD	-163DK	Over 1.5	47.6	43.3	+110	+4.3%	+10.0%	+1.6pp
William Contreras MIL C · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.62	+0.12	+207DK	-296DK	Over 0.5	35.8	32.6	+179	+3.2%	+9.9%	+1.2pp
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB	Home Runs	1+	0.08	-0.92	+1640DK	—	1+ Home Runs	6.3	5.7	+1487	+0.6%	+9.6%	-0.1pp
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.44	-0.06	+286DK	-422DK	Over 0.5	28.3	25.9	+253	+2.4%	+9.2%	+0.7pp
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL	Home Runs	1+	0.12	-0.88	+1140DK	—	1+ Home Runs	8.8	8.1	+1036	+0.7%	+9.1%	-0.4pp
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL	H+R+RBI	1.5	1.91	+0.41	+135UD	-176DK	Over 1.5	46.2	42.6	+116	+3.6%	+8.6%	+0.7pp
Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.59	+0.09	+204DK	-291DK	Over 0.5	35.6	32.9	+181	+2.7%	+8.2%	+2.8pp
Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL	Home Runs	1+	0.14	-0.86	+830UD	—	1+ Home Runs	11.6	10.8	+762	+0.8%	+7.9%	-0.3pp
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL	RBI	0.5	0.55	+0.05	+215DK	-308DK	Over 0.5	34.1	31.7	+193	+2.4%	+7.4%	+2.3pp
Garrett Mitchell MIL CF · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.46	-0.04	+264DK	-386DK	Over 0.5	29.5	27.5	+239	+2.0%	+7.4%	+1.4pp
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.28	+0.78	+123UD	-160DK	Over 1.5	48.1	44.8	+108	+3.3%	+7.3%	+2.1pp
Jake Bauers MIL 1B · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.02	+0.52	+122DK	-154UD	Over 1.5	48.3	45.0	+107	+3.3%	+7.2%	-0.1pp
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL	Total Bases	1.5	2.01	+0.51	+122DK	-162DK	Over 1.5	48.3	45.0	+107	+3.3%	+7.2%	+0.4pp
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB	Runs	0.5	0.54	+0.04	+220UD	-314DK	Over 0.5	33.5	31.2	+199	+2.3%	+7.2%	+1.4pp
Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB	Total Bases	1.5	1.99	+0.49	+121DK	-161DK	Over 1.5	48.2	45.2	+107	+3.0%	+6.5%	+2.5pp
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL	RBI	0.5	0.64	+0.14	+173DK	-244DK	Over 0.5	38.6	36.6	+159	+2.0%	+5.4%	+0.6pp
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB	Runs	0.5	0.67	+0.17	+162DK	-227DK	Over 0.5	40.1	38.2	+149	+1.9%	+5.1%	+2.1pp
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB	Home Runs	1+	0.14	-0.86	+910DK	—	1+ Home Runs	10.4	9.9	+862	+0.5%	+5.0%	-0.3pp
Garrett Mitchell MIL CF · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	1.74	+0.24	+136UD	-176DK	Over 1.5	44.4	42.4	+125	+2.0%	+4.8%	+1
Freddy Peralta TB SP · vs MIL	Pitcher Ks	4.5	5.51	+1.01	-143DK	+112DK	Over 4.5	61.6	58.8	-160	+2.8%	+4.7%	-1
Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL	H+R+RBI	1.5	1.99	+0.49	+106DK	-130UD	Over 1.5	50.2	48.5	-101	+1.7%	+3.4%	+1.0pp
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL	Total Bases	1.5	1.79	+0.29	+123DK	-150UD	Over 1.5	46.0	44.8	+117	+1.2%	+2.6%	+2.4pp
William Contreras MIL C · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.21	+0.71	-102DK	-131DK	Over 1.5	51.7	50.5	-107	+1.2%	+2.4%	+2.4pp
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB	Runs	0.5	0.59	+0.09	+166UD	-231DK	Over 0.5	38.4	37.6	+160	+0.8%	+2.1%	+2.1pp
Chandler Simpson TB LF · vs MIL	Total Bases	1.5	1.37	-0.13	+170UD	-208DK	Over 1.5	37.8	37.0	+165	+0.8%	+2.1%	0—
William Contreras MIL C · vs TB	Total Bases	1.5	1.59	+0.09	+149DK	-189UD	Over 1.5	40.9	40.2	+144	+0.7%	+1.8%	-0.1pp
Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.52	+1.02	-121UD	-106DK	Over 1.5	55.5	54.8	-125	+0.8%	+1.4%	+3.2pp
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.3	+0.8	-114DK	-116DK	Over 1.5	53.7	53.3	-116	+0.4%	+0.8%	+0.8pp
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL	Runs	0.5	0.47	-0.03	+203DK	-290DK	Over 0.5	33.1	33.0	+202	+0.1%	+0.3%	+0.6pp
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.31	+0.81	-124DK	-107DK	Over 1.5	55.2	55.4	-123	-0.2%	-0.3%	+2.1pp
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL	Home Runs	1+	0.26	-0.74	+379DK	—	1+ Home Runs	20.8	20.9	+381	-0.1%	-0.4%	-0.7pp
Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB	Runs	0.5	0.74	+0.24	+113DK	-156DK	Over 0.5	46.6	46.9	+115	-0.3%	-0.7%	+1.8pp
Garrett Mitchell MIL CF · vs TB	Runs	0.5	0.51	+0.01	+176DK	-248DK	Over 0.5	35.9	36.2	+179	-0.3%	-0.9%	+2.0pp

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