Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

MLB Terminal

Game 1 of 2

First game

NextTB @ MIL

Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM CTLines: DraftKings + 9 feeds

Tampa Bay Rays · 98-64

Model 3.9 · ESPN 28.1%

Proj total 8.6

MIL

Milwaukee Brewers · 103-59

Model 4.8 · ESPN 71.9%

60°F · gusts 12 mph · precip 0%· American Family Field

Markets

Moneyline · Run Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

TB ML

Fair +158 · Model 38.8%

+165

Edge +1.1% · EV +2.8%

Kelly ¼: 0.43% of bankroll ($4.27 of $1000)

MIL ML

Fair -158 · Model 61.2%

-179

CZR

Edge -3.0% · EV -4.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Run Line

TB +1.5

Fair -129 · Model 56.3%

-143

Edge -2.5% · EV -4.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

MIL -1.5

Fair +129 · Model 43.7%

+130

CZR

Edge +0.2% · EV +0.5%

Kelly ¼: 0.10% of bankroll ($0.98 of $1000)

Total

Over 6.5

Fair -141 · Model 58.4%

-105

Edge +7.2% · EV +14.0%

Kelly ¼: 3.68% of bankroll ($36.80 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair +141 · Model 41.6%

-108

Edge -10.3% · EV -19.9%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	TB ML	MIL ML	TB Run Line	MIL Run Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	+163	-198	+1.5-147	-1.5+122	o6.5-112	u6.5-108
FanDuel	+164	-196	+1.5-146	-1.5+122	o6.5-105	u6.5-115
BetMGM	+155	-190	+1.5-155	-1.5+125	o6.5-110	u6.5-110
Caesars	+152	-179	+1.5-152	-1.5+130	o6.5-107	u6.5-112
bet365	+163	-196	+1.5-148	-1.5+124	o6.5-112	u6.5-108
BetRivers	+165	-200	+1.5-143	-1.5+118	o6.5-109	u6.5-112
Unibet	+160	-200	+1.5-147	-1.5+114	o6.5-111	u6.5-115
Consensus	+161	-197	+1.5-146	-1.5+123	o6.5-111	u6.5-109
Opening Line	+131	-157	+1.5-178	-1.5+145	o6.5-105	u6.5-114

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Brewers favored, but total shows clearer value

Milwaukee projects as the better side at 4.8-3.9, though the market already prices in much of that edge on the moneyline. The cleaner numerical angle is the total, with the model at 8.6 versus a posted 6.5, while Tampa Bay still offers a small plus-money moneyline case.

Model projection is MIL by 0.9 runs with an 8.6 total, compared with market lines around MIL -179 and total 6.5.
Best listed market edge is Over 6.5 at -105, with 58.5% model probability and +14.21% EV.
TB moneyline at +164 shows a smaller positive EV (+2.43%) despite Milwaukee being the projected winner 61.2% of the time.
Milwaukee enters on a five-game winning streak, while Tampa Bay is 4-1 in its last five; both teams bring strong form into the series opener.
Injuries matter on both sides, with Tampa Bay missing Shane McClanahan and Milwaukee carrying several pitcher IL absences, which aligns with the model leaning above the posted total.

Props to watch

Liam Hicks Over 0.5 RBI (+374): highest prop EV on the board at +32.25% with a 27.9% model probability.
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 RBI (+249): middle-of-order style RBI look with 34.8% model probability and +21.45% EV.
Brice Turang Over 0.5 Total Bases (-167): lower payout, but strong 74.9% model probability and +19.8% EV.

Lean: Over 6.5

Injury Report

Gavin Lux LF60-Day-IL · Shoulder
Shane McClanahan SPOut · Forearm
Jacob Melton LF60-Day-IL · Hamstring
Edwin Uceta RP60-Day-IL · Shoulder
Jonathan Heasley RP60-Day-IL · Elbow

MIL

Brandon Woodruff SP60-Day-IL · Shoulder
Grant Anderson RP15-Day-IL · Biceps
Quinn Priester SP60-Day-IL · Shoulder
Angel Zerpa RP60-Day-IL · Elbow
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-Day-IL · Elbow

Recent Form · Series

WLWWW

MIL

WWWWW

Regular Season Series: MIL wins series 2-1

Game Props

TB @ MIL · Player Props

66 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL	RBI	0.5	0.56	+0.06	+374DK	-573DK	Over 0.5	27.9	21.1	+258	+6.8%	+32.3%	-1.3pp
Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL	RBI	0.5	0.58	+0.08	+332DK	-500DK	Over 0.5	29.5	23.1	+239	+6.3%	+27.4%	+0.3pp
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.69	+0.19	+249DK	-362DK	Over 0.5	34.8	28.7	+187	+6.2%	+21.4%	-0.5pp
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB	Total Bases	1.5	1.72	+0.22	o0.5-167UD	-176DK	Over 0.5	74.9	62.5	-299	+12.4%	+19.8%	0—
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL	RBI	0.5	0.64	+0.14	+233DK	-337DK	Over 0.5	34.7	30.0	+188	+4.7%	+15.6%	+1.8pp
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.64	+0.14	+225UD	-322DK	Over 0.5	35.2	30.8	+184	+4.4%	+14.4%	+4.1pp
Nick Martinez TB SP · vs MIL	Pitcher Ks	3.5	3.92	+0.42	+140UD	-170DK	Over 3.5	47.5	41.7	+111	+5.8%	+14.0%	-3.7pp
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL	Home Runs	1+	0.26	-0.74	+546DK	—	1+ Home Runs	17.5	15.5	+471	+2.0%	+13.1%	-0.4pp
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB	Home Runs	1+	0.19	-0.81	+750DK	—	1+ Home Runs	13.3	11.8	+652	+1.5%	+13.1%	+1.1pp
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL	RBI	0.5	0.55	+0.05	+249DK	-362DK	Over 0.5	32.3	28.7	+210	+3.6%	+12.7%	+4.9pp
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.44	-0.06	+300DK	-446DK	Over 0.5	27.8	25.0	+260	+2.8%	+11.2%	0
William Contreras MIL C · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.62	+0.12	+209DK	-300DK	Over 0.5	35.7	32.4	+180	+3.3%	+10.3%	+1.9pp
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.05	+0.55	+135DK	-180DK	Over 1.5	46.8	42.6	+114	+4.3%	+10.0%	+0.5pp
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL	Home Runs	1+	0.12	-0.88	+1160DK	—	1+ Home Runs	8.7	7.9	+1049	+0.8%	+9.6%	-0.4pp
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.3	+0.8	+135DK	-180DK	Over 1.5	46.1	42.6	+117	+3.5%	+8.3%	-1.2pp
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL	Total Bases	1.5	1.79	+0.29	+149DK	-197UD	Over 1.5	43.2	40.2	+131	+3.0%	+7.6%	0—
Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB	Total Bases	1.5	1.99	+0.49	+123UD	-162DK	Over 1.5	48.1	44.8	+108	+3.3%	+7.3%	+2.2pp
Garrett Mitchell MIL CF · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.46	-0.04	+261DK	-381DK	Over 0.5	29.7	27.7	+237	+2.0%	+7.2%	+0.8pp
Jackson Chourio MIL LF · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.59	+0.09	+198DK	-282DK	Over 0.5	35.9	33.6	+179	+2.3%	+7.0%	+2.4pp
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.28	+0.78	+122DK	-162DK	Over 1.5	47.9	45.0	+109	+2.9%	+6.3%	-1.0pp
Junior Caminero TB 3B · vs MIL	Runs	0.5	0.62	+0.12	+183DK	-259DK	Over 0.5	37.5	35.3	+167	+2.2%	+6.1%	-1.2pp
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL	Runs	0.5	0.47	-0.03	+245DK	-356DK	Over 0.5	30.7	29.0	+226	+1.7%	+5.9%	-2.0pp
Jake Bauers MIL 1B · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.02	+0.52	+104UD	-135DK	Over 1.5	51.0	49.0	-104	+2.0%	+4.0%	+4.3pp
Chandler Simpson TB LF · vs MIL	Total Bases	1.5	1.37	-0.13	o0.5-223UD	-221DK	Over 0.5	71.8	69.0	-255	+2.8%	+4.0%	-1.8pp
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.31	+0.81	+108DK	-143DK	Over 1.5	50.0	48.1	-100	+1.9%	+4.0%	+2.5pp
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB	Runs	0.5	0.54	+0.04	+198DK	-282DK	Over 0.5	34.8	33.6	+187	+1.2%	+3.7%	+0.9pp
Garrett Mitchell MIL CF · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	1.74	+0.24	+135DK	-181DK	Over 1.5	44.1	42.6	+127	+1.6%	+3.6%	-0.1pp
Jake Bauers MIL 1B · vs TB	RBI	0.5	0.58	+0.08	+179DK	-253DK	Over 0.5	37.1	35.8	+170	+1.3%	+3.5%	+4.1pp
Sal Frelick MIL RF · vs TB	Home Runs	1+	0.08	-0.92	+1420DK	—	1+ Home Runs	6.8	6.6	+1371	+0.2%	+3.4%	+0.6pp
William Contreras MIL C · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.21	+0.71	+102DK	-136DK	Over 1.5	51.0	49.5	-104	+1.5%	+3.0%	+0.4pp
Christian Yelich MIL DH · vs TB	Runs	0.5	0.59	+0.09	+167DK	-235DK	Over 0.5	38.2	37.5	+162	+0.8%	+2.0%	-0.1pp
Brice Turang MIL 2B · vs TB	H+R+RBI	1.5	2.35	+0.85	-106DK	-125DK	Over 1.5	52.4	51.5	-110	+0.9%	+1.8%	+5.0pp
Jacob Misiorowski MIL SP · vs TB	Pitcher Ks	6.5	7.45	+0.95	-135DK	+106DK	Over 6.5	58.5	57.4	-141	+1.1%	+1.8%	+0.5pp
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL	Runs	0.5	0.59	+0.09	+162DK	-228DK	Over 0.5	38.7	38.2	+158	+0.5%	+1.4%	+2.9pp
Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL	Home Runs	1+	0.14	-0.86	+810DK	—	1+ Home Runs	11.1	11.0	+801	+0.1%	+1.0%	-1.2pp
Yandy Diaz TB DH · vs MIL	Home Runs	1+	0.15	-0.85	+740DK	—	1+ Home Runs	12.0	11.9	+733	+0.1%	+0.8%	+1.9pp
Chandler Simpson TB LF · vs MIL	Runs	0.5	0.45	-0.05	+219DK	-315DK	Over 0.5	31.6	31.3	+216	+0.3%	+0.8%	-1.2pp
Chandler Simpson TB LF · vs MIL	H+R+RBI	1.5	1.79	+0.29	+111DK	-148DK	Over 1.5	47.5	47.4	+111	+0.1%	+0.2%	-1.9pp
Liam Hicks TB C · vs MIL	Hits	0.5	0.88	+0.38	-114UD	-112DK	Over 0.5	53.1	53.3	-113	-0.2%	-0.3%	-2.7pp
Jonathan Aranda TB 1B · vs MIL	Runs	0.5	0.48	-0.02	+194DK	-276DK	Over 0.5	33.8	34.0	+196	-0.2%	-0.6%	-0.5pp

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