NHL Terminal
Game 7 of 8
Mon, Oct 26 · 7:30 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 8 feeds
TOR
Toronto Maple Leafs · 7-4-2
Model 3.5
@
Proj total 6.5
CGY
Calgary Flames · 4-6-0
Model 3
No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Scotiabank Saddledome
Markets
Moneyline · Puck Line · Total
Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line
Moneyline
TOR ML
Fair -143 · Model 58.9%
-156
365Edge -2.0% · EV -3.3%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
CGY ML
Fair +143 · Model 41.1%
+136
DKEdge -1.3% · EV -3.0%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Puck Line
TOR -1.5
Fair +176 · Model 36.2%
+155
BREdge -3.0% · EV -7.7%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
CGY +1.5
Fair -176 · Model 63.8%
-170
FDEdge +0.8% · EV +1.3%
Kelly ¼: 0.57% of bankroll ($5.65 of $1000)
Total
Over 6.5
Fair -105 · Model 51.2%
+110
UNIEdge +3.6% · EV +7.5%
Kelly ¼: 1.71% of bankroll ($17.09 of $1000)
Under 6.5
Fair +105 · Model 48.8%
+100
DKEdge -1.2% · EV -2.4%
No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.
Line shopping · every book
| Book | TOR ML | CGY ML | TOR Puck Line | CGY Puck Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -162 | +136 | -1.5+150 | +1.5-180 | o6.5-120 | u6.5+100 |
| FanDuel | -164 | +136 | -1.5+138 | +1.5-170 | o6.5-115 | u6.5-105 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 | -1.5+140 | +1.5-170 | o6.5-118 | u6.5-102 |
| bet365 | -156 | +131 | -1.5+152 | +1.5-182 | o6.5-119 | u6.5-101 |
| BetRivers | -157 | +132 | -1.5+155 | +1.5-190 | o6.5-120 | u6.5-105 |
| Unibet | -156 | +130 | -1.5+145 | +1.5-175 | o6.5+110 | u6.5-133 |
| Consensus | -161 | +135 | -1.5+145 | +1.5-175 | o6.5-118 | u6.5-102 |
| Opening Line | -120 | -100 | -1.5+210 | +1.5-263 | o6.5-116 | u6.5-105 |
Game Props
TOR @ CGY · Player Props
47 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 William Nylander TOR RW · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 13.9% | +1.1pp | +1030UD | — | First Goal | 13.9 | 8.8 | +619 | +5.1% | +57.3% | — | ||
 Kirill Marchenko TOR RW · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 12% | +0.9pp | +1200UD | — | First Goal | 12.0 | 7.7 | +734 | +4.3% | +55.9% | — | ||
 Auston Matthews TOR C · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 16.1% | +0.3pp | +815UD | — | First Goal | 16.1 | 10.9 | +522 | +5.2% | +47.1% | — | ||
 Gavin McKenna TOR LW · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 8.4% | +0.1pp | +1630UD | — | First Goal | 8.4 | 5.8 | +1084 | +2.7% | +46.1% | — | ||
 Jack Roslovic TOR C · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 10% | +0.1pp | +1360UD | — | First Goal | 10.0 | 6.8 | +902 | +3.1% | +45.8% | — | ||
 Nick Paul TOR LW · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 6.6% | -0.2pp | +2010UD | — | First Goal | 6.6 | 4.7 | +1414 | +1.9% | +39.3% | — | ||
 Vinni Lettieri TOR C · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 6.4% | -0.3pp | +2060UD | — | First Goal | 6.4 | 4.6 | +1455 | +1.8% | +38.9% | — | ||
 Teddy Blueger TOR C · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 5.3% | -0.3pp | +2480UD | — | First Goal | 5.3 | 3.9 | +1799 | +1.4% | +35.9% | — | ||
 Easton Cowan TOR RW · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 9.7% | -0.7pp | +1290UD | — | First Goal | 9.7 | 7.2 | +928 | +2.5% | +35.3% | — | ||
 Darren Raddysh TOR D · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 6.2% | -0.4pp | +2070UD | — | First Goal | 6.2 | 4.6 | +1506 | +1.6% | +35.1% | — | ||
 Colton Sissons TOR C · vs CGY | First Goal | 1st | 5.3% | -0.6pp | +2350UD | — | First Goal | 5.3 | 4.1 | +1777 | +1.3% | +30.5% | — | ||
 Dakota Mermis TOR D · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.07 | -0.93 | +1900DK | — | 1+ Goals | 5.5 | 5.0 | +1718 | +0.5% | +10.0% | 0— | ||
William Nylander TOR RW · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.53 | -0.47 | +172UD | — | 1+ Goals | 39.8 | 36.8 | +151 | +3.0% | +8.3% | 0— | ||
Teddy Blueger TOR C · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.17 | -0.83 | +650DK | — | 1+ Goals | 13.7 | 13.3 | +630 | +0.4% | +2.8% | 0— | ||
 Troy Stecher TOR D · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.1 | -0.9 | +1200DK | — | 1+ Goals | 7.9 | 7.7 | +1166 | +0.2% | +2.7% | 0— | ||
 Morgan Frost CGY C · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.28 | -0.72 | +257UD | — | 1+ Goals | 27.6 | 28.0 | +262 | -0.4% | -1.5% | 0— | ||
Vinni Lettieri TOR C · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.18 | -0.82 | +550DK | — | 1+ Goals | 15.0 | 15.4 | +567 | -0.4% | -2.5% | 0— | ||
Kirill Marchenko TOR RW · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.4 | -0.6 | +178UD | — | 1+ Goals | 35.0 | 36.0 | +186 | -1.0% | -2.7% | 0— | ||
 Kevin Bahl CGY D · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.07 | -0.93 | +1270UD | — | 1+ Goals | 7.1 | 7.3 | +1308 | -0.2% | -2.7% | 0— | ||
Jack Roslovic TOR C · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.34 | -0.66 | +250DK | — | 1+ Goals | 27.5 | 28.6 | +264 | -1.1% | -3.8% | 0— | ||
Auston Matthews TOR C · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.56 | -0.44 | +135DK | — | 1+ Goals | 40.9 | 42.6 | +144 | -1.6% | -3.9% | 0— | ||
 Ryan Strome CGY C · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.17 | -0.83 | +417UD | — | 1+ Goals | 18.2 | 19.3 | +449 | -1.1% | -5.9% | 0— | ||
 Zack MacEwen TOR C · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.1 | -0.9 | +900DK | — | 1+ Goals | 9.4 | 10.0 | +964 | -0.6% | -6.0% | 0— | ||
 Yegor Sharangovich CGY C · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.2 | -0.8 | +329UD | — | 1+ Goals | 21.8 | 23.3 | +359 | -1.5% | -6.5% | 0— | ||
 Jake Middleton CGY D · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.06 | -0.94 | +1600DK | — | 1+ Goals | 5.5 | 5.9 | +1718 | -0.4% | -6.5% | 0— | ||
Easton Cowan TOR RW · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.27 | -0.73 | +295DK | — | 1+ Goals | 23.6 | 25.3 | +324 | -1.7% | -6.8% | 0— | ||
 Aydar Suniev CGY LW · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.23 | -0.77 | +340DK | — | 1+ Goals | 21.1 | 22.7 | +374 | -1.6% | -7.2% | 0— | ||
 Joel Farabee CGY LW · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.23 | -0.77 | +274UD | — | 1+ Goals | 24.4 | 26.7 | +310 | -2.3% | -8.7% | 0— | ||
Darren Raddysh TOR D · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.16 | -0.84 | +475DK | — | 1+ Goals | 15.8 | 17.4 | +533 | -1.6% | -9.2% | 0— | ||
Gavin McKenna TOR LW · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.27 | -0.73 | +265DK | — | 1+ Goals | 24.8 | 27.4 | +303 | -2.6% | -9.5% | 0— | ||
 Yan Kuznetsov CGY D · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.04 | -0.96 | +1700DK | — | 1+ Goals | 4.9 | 5.6 | +1941 | -0.7% | -11.8% | 0— | ||
Colton Sissons TOR C · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.12 | -0.88 | +600DK | — | 1+ Goals | 12.6 | 14.3 | +694 | -1.7% | -11.8% | 0— | ||
 Simon Nemec CGY D · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.1 | -0.9 | +663UD | — | 1+ Goals | 11.3 | 13.1 | +785 | -1.8% | -13.8% | 0— | ||
 Matvei Gridin CGY RW · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.18 | -0.82 | +284UD | — | 1+ Goals | 22.3 | 26.0 | +348 | -3.7% | -14.4% | 0— | ||
 Brennan Othmann CGY LW · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.08 | -0.92 | +800DK | — | 1+ Goals | 9.5 | 11.1 | +953 | -1.6% | -14.5% | 0— | ||
 Adam Klapka CGY RW · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.13 | -0.87 | +475DK | — | 1+ Goals | 14.7 | 17.4 | +580 | -2.7% | -15.5% | 0— | ||
 Zayne Parekh CGY D · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.1 | -0.9 | +553UD | — | 1+ Goals | 12.8 | 15.3 | +681 | -2.5% | -16.4% | 0— | ||
 Jonathan Castagna CGY C · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.06 | -0.94 | +950DK | — | 1+ Goals | 7.9 | 9.5 | +1166 | -1.6% | -17.1% | 0— | ||
 Matt Coronato CGY RW · vs TOR | Goals | 1+ | 0.21 | -0.79 | +225DK | — | 1+ Goals | 25.5 | 30.8 | +292 | -5.3% | -17.1% | 0— | ||
Nick Paul TOR LW · vs CGY | Goals | 1+ | 0.14 | -0.86 | +370DK | — | 1+ Goals | 17.6 | 21.3 | +468 | -3.7% | -17.3% | 0— |
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