Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

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Game 2 of 14

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Fri, Oct 23 · 8:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

Tampa Bay Lightning · 7-2-0

Model 3

Proj total 6.5

COL

Colorado Avalanche · 5-4-1

Model 3.5

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· Ball Arena

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

TB ML

Fair +125 · Model 44.4%

+112

Edge -2.8% · EV -5.9%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

COL ML

Fair -125 · Model 55.6%

-125

Edge +0.0% · EV +0.1%

Kelly ¼: 0.03% of bankroll ($0.25 of $1000)

Puck Line

TB +1.5

Fair -203 · Model 67.0%

-210

MGM

Edge -0.7% · EV -1.1%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

COL -1.5

Fair +203 · Model 33.0%

+195

Edge -0.9% · EV -2.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 6

Fair +106 · Model 57.4%

-125

MGM

Edge +1.8% · EV +3.3%

Kelly ¼: 1.04% of bankroll ($10.37 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair -106 · Model 51.4%

-119

UNI

Edge -2.9% · EV -5.4%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	TB ML	COL ML	TB Puck Line	COL Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	+105	-125	+1.5-238	-1.5+195	o6.5+102	u6.5-122
FanDuel	+112	-134	+1.5-215	-1.5+172	o6.5-100	u6.5-120
BetMGM	+110	-135	+1.5-210	-1.5+170	o6-125	u6+105
Caesars	+107	-127	—	—	o6.5+101	u6.5-124
bet365	+112	-132	+1.5-230	-1.5+185	o6.5+100	u6.5-120
BetRivers	+110	-130	+1.5-245	-1.5+190	o6.5-104	u6.5-121
Unibet	+107	-128	+1.5-222	-1.5+180	o6.5-100	u6.5-119
Consensus	+110	-133	+1.5-222	-1.5+178	o6.5-100	u6.5-120
Opening Line	+115	-135	+1.5-233	-1.5+190	o6.5+110	u6.5-132

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Avalanche slight edge in 6.5-goal projection

Colorado is a narrow home favorite in the model, projected to win 3.5-3.0 with a 55.6% implied win probability and the only positive moneyline EV on the board. The total is lined close to the projection, but Over 6 still shows a modest edge, while Tampa enters in better recent form at 4-1 over its last five compared with Colorado's 2-3 stretch.

Model makes COL a -0.5 goal favorite with a 3.5-3.0 projected score and 6.5 total.
COL ML (-125, DraftKings) shows +0.08 EV with 55.6% model win probability; TB ML (+112) is negative EV at -5.87.
Over 6 (-125, BetMGM) is the strongest listed market edge at +3.31 EV with 57.4% model probability.
Recent form favors Tampa: TB is 4-1 in its last five, while COL is 2-3.
Injuries are light but notable: Tampa has Anthony Cirelli day-to-day and Yanni Gourde on IR; Colorado lists Nicolas Roy and Zachary L'Heureux out.

Props to watch

Parker Kelly 1+ Goals (+900) carries the top listed prop EV at +21.0 with a 12.1% model probability.
Artturi Lehkonen 1+ Goals (+249) stands out among more realistic scorers with 31.6% model probability and +10.28 EV.
Nathan MacKinnon 1+ Goals (+129) has the highest raw goal probability on the board at 46.9%, with +7.4 EV.

Lean: COL ML

Injury Report

Anthony Cirelli CDay-To-Day · Undisclosed
Yanni Gourde CInjured Reserve · Hip

COL

Nicolas Roy COut · Lower Body
Zachary L'Heureux LWOut · Upper Body
Georgii Merkulov CInjured Reserve · Undisclosed

Recent Form · Series

WLWWW

COL

WLWLL

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/23

Game Props

TB @ COL · Player Props

96 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Parker Kelly COL C · vs TB	Goals	1+	0.19	-0.81	+900DK	—	1+ Goals	12.1	10.0	+726	+2.1%	+21.0%	-1.1pp
Josh Manson COL D · vs TB	Goals	1+	0.08	-0.92	+2000DK	—	1+ Goals	5.5	4.8	+1718	+0.7%	+15.5%	0
Ryan McDonagh TB D · vs COL	Goals	1+	0.08	-0.92	+1900DK	—	1+ Goals	5.7	5.0	+1654	+0.7%	+14.0%	+0.2pp
Artturi Lehkonen COL LW · vs TB	Goals	1+	0.5	-0.5	+249UD	—	1+ Goals	31.6	28.7	+216	+3.0%	+10.3%	0
Nathan MacKinnon COL C · vs TB	Goals	1+	0.64	-0.36	+129UD	—	1+ Goals	46.9	43.7	+113	+3.2%	+7.4%	+3.5pp
Ilya Mikheyev TB RW · vs COL	Goals	1+	0.23	-0.77	+550DK	—	1+ Goals	16.5	15.4	+506	+1.1%	+7.3%	0—
Brent Burns COL D · vs TB	Goals	1+	0.09	-0.91	+1500DK	—	1+ Goals	6.7	6.2	+1393	+0.5%	+7.2%	0
Nikita Kucherov TB RW · vs COL	Points	1.5	1.61	+0.11	+156UD	-193UD	Over 1.5	41.0	39.1	+144	+1.9%	+5.0%	0—
Anthony Cirelli TB C · vs COL	Goals	1+	0.33	-0.67	+350DK	—	1+ Goals	23.3	22.2	+329	+1.1%	+4.8%	0
Brock Nelson COL C · vs TB	Goals	1+	0.36	-0.64	+310DK	—	1+ Goals	25.5	24.4	+292	+1.1%	+4.5%	-0.6pp
Artturi Lehkonen COL LW · vs TB	Points	0.5	0.85	+0.35	+111UD	-136UD	Over 0.5	49.4	47.4	+102	+2.0%	+4.2%	0
Brandon Hagel TB LW · vs COL	Goals	1+	0.61	-0.39	+170DK	—	1+ Goals	38.5	37.0	+160	+1.5%	+4.0%	0—
Nathan MacKinnon COL C · vs TB	Shots on Goal	3.5	4.38	+0.88	-105DK	-118UD	Over 3.5	53.2	51.2	-114	+2.0%	+3.9%	-1.0pp
Martin Necas COL C · vs TB	Goals	1+	0.49	-0.51	+215DK	—	1+ Goals	32.9	31.7	+204	+1.1%	+3.6%	+0.5pp
Anthony Cirelli TB C · vs COL	Points	0.5	0.67	+0.17	+141UD	-176UD	Over 0.5	42.8	41.5	+134	+1.3%	+3.1%	0—
John Carlson TB D · vs COL	Goals	1+	0.25	-0.75	+450DK	—	1+ Goals	18.7	18.2	+435	+0.5%	+2.9%	+0.8pp
John Carlson TB D · vs COL	Points	0.5	0.74	+0.24	+124UD	-154UD	Over 0.5	45.9	44.6	+118	+1.3%	+2.8%	0—
Gabriel Landeskog COL LW · vs TB	Goals	1+	0.3	-0.7	+360DK	—	1+ Goals	22.3	21.7	+348	+0.6%	+2.6%	-1.0pp
Martin Necas COL C · vs TB	Assists	0.5	0.72	+0.22	+126UD	-157UD	Over 0.5	45.3	44.2	+121	+1.1%	+2.4%	-0.8pp
Gage Goncalves TB C · vs COL	Points	0.5	0.29	-0.21	+146UD	-186UD	Under 0.5	66.4	65.0	-198	+1.4%	+2.1%	0—
Brock Nelson COL C · vs TB	Points	0.5	0.8	+0.3	+107UD	-130UD	Over 0.5	49.3	48.3	+103	+1.0%	+2.0%	0—
John Carlson TB D · vs COL	Assists	0.5	0.49	-0.01	+195UD	-244UD	Over 0.5	34.5	33.9	+190	+0.6%	+1.8%	-0.6pp
Jake Guentzel TB C · vs COL	Assists	0.5	0.59	+0.09	+138UD	-167UD	Over 0.5	42.6	42.0	+135	+0.6%	+1.4%	-0.8pp
Nikita Kucherov TB RW · vs COL	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.98	+0.48	-164UD	+139UD	Under 2.5	42.4	41.8	+136	+0.6%	+1.3%	0—
Gabriel Landeskog COL LW · vs TB	Shots on Goal	2.5	1.88	-0.62	+139UD	-173UD	Under 2.5	63.9	63.4	-177	+0.5%	+0.8%	+0.2pp
Nikita Kucherov TB RW · vs COL	Goals	1+	0.53	-0.47	+175DK	—	1+ Goals	36.5	36.4	+174	+0.1%	+0.4%	0—
Anthony Cirelli TB C · vs COL	Assists	0.5	0.34	-0.16	+273UD	-358UD	Over 0.5	26.8	26.8	+273	-0.0%	-0.0%	-1.8pp
Brandon Hagel TB LW · vs COL	Shots on Goal	2.5	3.59	+1.09	-167UD	+135UD	Over 2.5	62.3	62.5	-165	-0.3%	-0.4%	-1
Cale Makar COL D · vs TB	First Goal	1st	4.3%	+0.4pp	+2190UD	—	First Goal	4.3	4.4	+2204	-0.0%	-0.6%	—
Brock Nelson COL C · vs TB	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.14	+0.64	-136UD	+111UD	Over 1.5	57.2	57.6	-134	-0.4%	-0.7%	-1.8pp
Gage Goncalves TB C · vs COL	Assists	0.5	0.19	-0.31	+244UD	-323UD	Under 0.5	75.6	76.4	-310	-0.8%	-1.0%	-0.5pp
Cale Makar COL D · vs TB	Goals	1+	0.29	-0.71	+330DK	—	1+ Goals	23.0	23.3	+335	-0.3%	-1.1%	0
Martin Necas COL C · vs TB	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.5	0	+133UD	-164UD	Over 2.5	42.4	42.9	+136	-0.5%	-1.2%	+1
Nazem Kadri COL C · vs TB	Assists	0.5	0.54	+0.04	+153UD	-197UD	Over 0.5	39.0	39.5	+156	-0.5%	-1.3%	0—
Martin Necas COL C · vs TB	Points	0.5	1.21	+0.71	-154UD	+124UD	Over 0.5	59.7	60.6	-148	-0.9%	-1.5%	0—
Devon Toews COL D · vs TB	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.57	+0.07	-129UD	+105DK	Under 1.5	48.0	48.8	+108	-0.8%	-1.6%	+4.3pp
Artturi Lehkonen COL LW · vs TB	First Goal	1st	6.5%	+0.6pp	+1420UD	—	First Goal	6.5	6.6	+1445	-0.1%	-1.6%	—
Artturi Lehkonen COL LW · vs TB	Assists	0.5	0.35	-0.15	+255DK	-304UD	Over 0.5	27.6	28.2	+262	-0.6%	-2.0%	-1.5pp
Victor Hedman TB D · vs COL	Goals	1+	0.1	-0.9	+1000DK	—	1+ Goals	8.9	9.1	+1024	-0.2%	-2.1%	+0.8pp
Devon Toews COL D · vs TB	Assists	0.5	0.39	-0.11	+175DK	-213UD	Under 0.5	66.6	68.1	-199	-1.4%	-2.1%	-1.1pp

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