Clutch Algorithm — Props · Lineups

NHL Terminal

Game 1 of 14

First game

NextTB @ COL

Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM CTLines: Draft Kings + 9 feeds

MTL

Montreal Canadiens · 4-3-2

Model 3.5

Proj total 6.5

CHI

Chicago Blackhawks · 3-6-0

Model 3

No weather posted (indoor or not yet available)· United Center

Markets

Moneyline · Puck Line · Total

Best price across all books · model probability re-scored at each book's line

Moneyline

MTL ML

Fair -141 · Model 58.5%

-142

Edge -0.2% · EV -0.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

CHI ML

Fair +141 · Model 41.5%

+125

MGM

Edge -2.9% · EV -6.6%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Puck Line

MTL -1.5

Fair +183 · Model 35.3%

+170

Edge -1.7% · EV -4.7%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

CHI +1.5

Fair -183 · Model 64.7%

-190

MGM

Edge -0.8% · EV -1.3%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Total

Over 6

Fair +106 · Model 57.4%

-109

UNI

Edge +5.2% · EV +10.1%

Kelly ¼: 2.74% of bankroll ($27.41 of $1000)

Under 6.5

Fair -106 · Model 51.4%

-120

MGM

Edge -3.1% · EV -5.8%

No Kelly stake — price is not +EV.

Line shopping · every book

Book	MTL ML	CHI ML	MTL Puck Line	CHI Puck Line	Over	Under
DraftKings	-148	+124	-1.5+164	+1.5-198	o6.5+102	u6.5-122
FanDuel	-142	+118	-1.5+158	+1.5-196	o6.5-100	u6.5-122
BetMGM	-150	+125	-1.5+155	+1.5-190	o6.5+100	u6.5-120
Caesars	-148	+124	—	—	o6.5+102	u6.5-125
bet365	-144	+122	-1.5+165	+1.5-200	o6.5+101	u6.5-121
BetRivers	-143	+123	-1.5+165	+1.5-210	o6.5+102	u6.5-127
Unibet	-147	+122	-1.5+160	+1.5-192	o6-109	u6-110
Consensus	-150	+124	-1.5+161	+1.5-197	o6.5+100	u6.5-121
Opening Line	-141	+120	-1.5+180	+1.5-222	o6.5-105	u6.5-116

AI AnalysisModel-generated · verify before betting

Over 6 stands out in Canadiens-Blackhawks

The model makes Montreal a modest road favorite, projecting a 3.5-3.0 Canadiens win with a 6.5-goal total. Market sides are priced close to fair, but the clearest edge in the JSON is on Over 6 at -109, even with Montreal missing Nick Suzuki and Chicago dealing with Bowen Byram uncertainty.

Model projection: MTL by 0.6 goals, 58.5% win probability, expected total 6.5.
Best listed market edge is Over 6 (-109 at Unibet) with 57.4% model probability and +10.05% EV.
Moneyline prices look efficient: MTL ML -142 has just -0.3% EV, while CHI ML +125 shows -6.63% EV.
Injuries matter on both sides: Montreal is without Nick Suzuki and Sam Montembeault, while Mike Matheson is day-to-day; Chicago has Bowen Byram day-to-day and Andrew Mangiapane on IR.
Recent form is mixed rather than decisive: Chicago is 2-3 in its last five, Montreal is 3-2, and the season records are close at 3-6-0 vs 4-3-2.

Props to watch

Alexandre Carrier 1+ Goals (+1500): highest prop EV on the board at +15.2 with a 7.2% model probability.
Roman Kantserov Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+140): model gives it 45.5%, creating +9.2% EV at plus money.
Anton Frondell Over 0.5 Assists (+215): 34.2% model probability for +7.73% EV in a game projected for 6.5 goals.

Lean: Over 6

Injury Report

MTL

Nick Suzuki COut · Upper Body
Mike Matheson DDay-To-Day · Lower Body
Florian Xhekaj LWInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Sam Montembeault GInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Ivan Demidov RWInjured Reserve · Lower Body

CHI

Andrew Mangiapane LWInjured Reserve · Lower Body
Bowen Byram DDay-To-Day · Upper Body

Recent Form · Series

MTL

WWLWL

CHI

LLWWL

Regular Season Series: Series starts 10/23

Game Props

MTL @ CHI · Player Props

92 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research

Player	Prop	Line	Model Proj	Diff	Over / Yes	Under	Model Side	Model %	Implied	Fair	Edge	EV	Move
Alexandre Carrier MTL D · vs CHI	Goals	1+	0.1	-0.9	+1500DK	—	1+ Goals	7.2	6.2	+1289	+0.9%	+15.2%	+0.7pp
Roman Kantserov CHI RW · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.44	-0.06	-179UD	+140DK	Under 1.5	45.5	41.7	+120	+3.8%	+9.2%	+2.5pp
Anton Frondell CHI C · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.52	+0.02	+215UD	-271UD	Over 0.5	34.2	31.7	+192	+2.5%	+7.7%	0—
Juraj Slafkovsky MTL LW · vs CHI	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.37	-0.13	-136UD	+111UD	Under 2.5	50.2	47.4	-101	+2.8%	+5.9%	-1
Noah Dobson MTL D · vs CHI	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.11	-0.39	-124UD	+100DK	Under 2.5	52.9	50.0	-112	+2.9%	+5.8%	+1.0pp
Roman Kantserov CHI RW · vs MTL	Points	0.5	0.44	-0.06	-115UD	-107UD	Under 0.5	54.4	51.7	-119	+2.7%	+5.2%	+1.0pp
Oliver Kapanen MTL C · vs CHI	Points	0.5	0.4	-0.1	+102UD	-125UD	Under 0.5	58.3	55.6	-140	+2.7%	+4.9%	0—
Cole Caufield MTL RW · vs CHI	Assists	0.5	0.37	-0.13	+105UD	-129UD	Under 0.5	59.0	56.3	-144	+2.7%	+4.7%	+1.4pp
Tyler Bertuzzi CHI LW · vs MTL	Goals	1+	0.34	-0.66	+271UD	—	1+ Goals	28.1	27.0	+256	+1.1%	+4.3%	0
Frank Nazar CHI C · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.06	+0.56	+100UD	-124UD	Over 1.5	52.0	50.0	-108	+2.0%	+4.0%	-1.4pp
Oliver Kapanen MTL C · vs CHI	Assists	0.5	0.16	-0.34	+185UD	-239UD	Under 0.5	73.0	70.5	-270	+2.5%	+3.5%	0
Cole Smith CHI RW · vs MTL	Goals	1+	0.12	-0.88	+950DK	—	1+ Goals	9.8	9.5	+920	+0.3%	+2.9%	-1.0pp
Chris Kreider MTL LW · vs CHI	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.49	-0.01	-115DK	-104UD	Under 1.5	52.4	51.0	-110	+1.4%	+2.8%	-1.0pp
Josh Anderson MTL RW · vs CHI	Goals	1+	0.29	-0.71	+380DK	—	1+ Goals	21.4	20.8	+367	+0.6%	+2.7%	0
Teuvo Teravainen CHI C · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.33	-0.17	+150UD	-186UD	Under 0.5	65.4	65.0	-189	+0.4%	+0.6%	+2.3pp
Anton Frondell CHI C · vs MTL	Points	0.5	0.69	+0.19	+120UD	-148UD	Over 0.5	45.6	45.5	+119	+0.1%	+0.3%	0—
Noah Dobson MTL D · vs CHI	Points	0.5	0.45	-0.05	+107UD	-130DK	Under 0.5	56.4	56.5	-129	-0.1%	-0.2%	+1.4pp
Connor Bedard CHI C · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	2.5	3.17	+0.67	-130UD	+106UD	Over 2.5	56.3	56.5	-129	-0.2%	-0.4%	+1.4pp
Patrick Kane CHI RW · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	2.5	2.24	-0.26	+116UD	-141UD	Under 2.5	58.2	58.5	-139	-0.3%	-0.5%	+2.0pp
Connor Bedard CHI C · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.65	+0.15	+105UD	-125DK	Over 0.5	48.4	48.8	+107	-0.4%	-0.8%	+3.0pp
Cole Caufield MTL RW · vs CHI	Points	1.5	1.01	-0.49	+175UD	-218UD	Under 1.5	68.0	68.6	-212	-0.6%	-0.8%	+0.7pp
Noah Dobson MTL D · vs CHI	Assists	0.5	0.36	-0.14	+143UD	-175DK	Under 0.5	63.1	63.6	-171	-0.5%	-0.8%	+0.2pp
Frank Nazar CHI C · vs MTL	Goals	1+	0.29	-0.71	+330DK	—	1+ Goals	23.0	23.3	+335	-0.3%	-1.1%	-1.1pp
Zack Bolduc MTL RW · vs CHI	Goals	1+	0.26	-0.74	+370DK	—	1+ Goals	21.0	21.3	+376	-0.3%	-1.3%	-3.1pp
Roman Kantserov CHI RW · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.31	-0.19	+181UD	-228UD	Under 0.5	68.5	69.5	-217	-1.0%	-1.5%	+1.2pp
Ryan Donato CHI C · vs MTL	Goals	1+	0.2	-0.8	+500DK	—	1+ Goals	16.4	16.7	+510	-0.3%	-1.6%	-1.5pp
Juraj Slafkovsky MTL LW · vs CHI	Assists	0.5	0.54	+0.04	+110DK	-136UD	Under 0.5	56.7	57.6	-131	-0.9%	-1.6%	-0.9pp
Oliver Kapanen MTL C · vs CHI	Shots on Goal	1.5	1.7	+0.2	-148UD	+120DK	Under 1.5	44.7	45.5	+124	-0.8%	-1.7%	+1.1pp
Patrick Kane CHI RW · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.55	+0.05	+135UD	-164UD	Over 0.5	41.7	42.6	+140	-0.8%	-2.0%	+1.8pp
Chris Kreider MTL LW · vs CHI	Points	0.5	0.58	+0.08	-105UD	-118UD	Under 0.5	53.0	54.1	-113	-1.1%	-2.1%	0—
Teuvo Teravainen CHI C · vs MTL	Points	0.5	0.55	+0.05	-104UD	-120DK	Under 0.5	53.4	54.5	-115	-1.1%	-2.1%	+1.4pp
Cole Caufield MTL RW · vs CHI	Shots on Goal	3.5	3.32	-0.18	-102UD	-115DK	Under 3.5	52.3	53.5	-110	-1.2%	-2.2%	0
Roman Kantserov CHI RW · vs MTL	Goals	1+	0.33	-0.67	+249UD	—	1+ Goals	28.0	28.7	+257	-0.7%	-2.3%	+0.4pp
Chris Kreider MTL LW · vs CHI	Assists	0.5	0.36	-0.14	+219UD	-278UD	Over 0.5	30.6	31.3	+227	-0.8%	-2.4%	+1.9pp
Lane Hutson MTL D · vs CHI	Assists	0.5	0.79	+0.29	-129UD	+105DK	Over 0.5	54.8	56.3	-121	-1.5%	-2.7%	0
Juraj Slafkovsky MTL LW · vs CHI	Points	0.5	0.85	+0.35	-164UD	+132UD	Under 0.5	41.9	43.1	+139	-1.2%	-2.8%	0—
Anton Frondell CHI C · vs MTL	Shots on Goal	1.5	2.35	+0.85	-165DK	+137UD	Over 1.5	60.5	62.3	-153	-1.8%	-2.8%	-2.8pp
Cole Caufield MTL RW · vs CHI	Goals	1+	0.64	-0.36	+115DK	—	1+ Goals	44.9	46.5	+123	-1.6%	-3.5%	+3.0pp
Frank Nazar CHI C · vs MTL	Assists	0.5	0.31	-0.19	+204UD	-271UD	Under 0.5	70.3	73.0	-237	-2.8%	-3.8%	+0.9pp
Frank Nazar CHI C · vs MTL	Points	0.5	0.61	+0.11	+110DK	-134UD	Under 0.5	55.1	57.3	-123	-2.2%	-3.8%	0—

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