NBA Research Terminal
NBA Edge Terminal
Model projections vs the best price across your sportsbooks · edge % · expected value · line movement — refreshed continuously.
Updated 42s ago
Games: Team ratings (PF/PA per game, prior season regressed + current season) → normal win/cover/over probabilities, blended 45% model / 55% no-vig market. Props: Per-game player rates (prior season blended with current) → Poisson/normal over probabilities, blended 35% model / 65% no-vig market. Unpriced lines assume -110.
00 · Game Slate
Today's Games
16 games · tap a game for its full research view — markets by book, every player prop, AI read
Today + Next
Tue 6:30 PM CTDraft Kings
BKN0-3+500FD
BOS2-1-625DKSpread BOS -12.5O/U 222.562 propsTop EV +13.2%
Tue 7:00 PM CTDraft Kings
DET3-0+145BR
NY0-3-164365Spread NY -3.5O/U 218.565 propsTop EV +16.9%
Tue 7:00 PM CTDraft Kings
SAC0-3+1100FD
SA1-2-1650DKSpread SA -18.5O/U 232.560 propsTop EV +21.2%
Tue 10:00 PM CTDraft Kings
POR2-0+112FD
LAL3-0-125DKSpread LAL -1.5O/U 233.566 propsTop EV +25.3%
Wed 6:00 PM CTNo line
MIA0-4—
ATL2-2—0 props
Wed 6:00 PM CTNo line
WSH2-2—
CLE2-1—0 props
Wed 6:00 PM CTNo line
CHA3-1—DET3-0—0 props
Wed 6:00 PM CTDraft Kings
PHI3-1-139365
IND2-2+135CZRSpread IND +3.5O/U 238.50 propsTop EV +10.9%
Wed 6:30 PM CTNo line
ORL1-2—
TOR2-1—0 props
Wed 7:00 PM CTNo line
NY0-3—
CHI1-3—0 props
Wed 7:00 PM CTNo line
HOU4-0—
MIL1-3—0 props
Wed 7:00 PM CTNo line
GS1-3—
MIN3-1—0 props
Wed 7:00 PM CTNo line
DEN1-2—
NO0-3—0 props
Wed 8:00 PM CTNo line
SA1-2—
UTAH1-3—0 props
Wed 8:30 PM CTNo line
OKC4-0—
DAL2-2—0 props
Wed 9:30 PM CTNo line
LAL3-0—
LAC1-2—0 props
01 · +EV Edge Board
Best +EV Right Now
151 positive-EV opportunities · 11 game markets · 140 player props · best price across all books · ranked by EV
| Tier | Market / Player | Type | Game | Model Proj | Best Odds | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ELITE |  Quentin Grimes Assists · Over 2.5 | prop | POR @ LAL Tue 10:00 PM CT | Proj 3.19 | +135UD | 53.3 | 42.6 | -114 | +10.8% | +25.3% | -2.2pp | |
ELITE | SAC ML Moneyline | game | SAC @ SA Tue 7:00 PM CT | Win 10.1% | +1100FD | 10.1 | 8.3 | +890 | +1.8% | +21.2% | -0.4pp | |
ELITE |  Deni Avdija Assists · Over 5.5 | prop | POR @ LAL Tue 10:00 PM CT | Proj 6.41 | +129UD | 51.5 | 43.7 | -106 | +7.8% | +17.9% | +1 | |
ELITE |  Paul Reed Points · Under 12.5 | prop | DET @ NY Tue 7:00 PM CT | Proj 8.5 | -108UD | 60.7 | 51.9 | -154 | +8.8% | +16.9% | -4.1pp | |
ELITE |  Landry Shamet Threes · Over 1.5 | prop | DET @ NY Tue 7:00 PM CT | Proj 1.94 | +130UD | 50.8 | 43.5 | -103 | +7.3% | +16.8% | -1.1pp | |
ELITE |  Jrue Holiday Rebounds · Over 3.5 | prop | POR @ LAL Tue 10:00 PM CT | Proj 4.27 | +124UD | 52.0 | 44.6 | -108 | +7.4% | +16.5% | -0.4pp | |
ELITE | Quentin Grimes Points · Over 8.5 | prop | POR @ LAL Tue 10:00 PM CT | Proj 12.32 | +102UD | 57.6 | 49.5 | -136 | +8.1% | +16.4% | +1.7pp | |
ELITE |  Precious Achiuwa Rebounds · Under 7.5 | prop | SAC @ SA Tue 7:00 PM CT | Proj 6.8 | +118UD | 52.9 | 45.9 | -112 | +7.0% | +15.3% | -1.9pp | |
ELITE |  Walker Kessler Points · Over 12.5 | prop | POR @ LAL Tue 10:00 PM CT | Proj 14.58 | -114UD | 61.1 | 53.3 | -157 | +7.9% | +14.8% | +2 | |
ELITE |  Darius Acuff Jr. First Basket | prop | SAC @ SA Tue 7:00 PM CT | Proj 7.3 | +1460DK | 7.3 | 6.4 | +1262 | +0.9% | +14.5% | -0.7pp | |
ELITE |  Ja Morant Assists · Over 6.5 | prop | POR @ LAL Tue 10:00 PM CT | Proj 7.96 | +116UD | 52.6 | 46.3 | -111 | +6.3% | +13.6% | +1 | |
ELITE |  De'Andre Hunter Points · Over 8.5 | prop | SAC @ SA Tue 7:00 PM CT | Proj 11.82 | -130UD | 64.2 | 56.5 | -179 | +7.7% | +13.6% | -2 | |
ELITE |  Dylan Harper Rebounds · Under 4.5 | prop | SAC @ SA Tue 7:00 PM CT | Proj 3.76 | +112UD | 53.5 | 47.2 | -115 | +6.3% | +13.4% | -2.4pp | |
ELITE |  Michael Porter Jr. Rebounds · Over 5.5 | prop | BKN @ BOS Tue 6:30 PM CT | Proj 6.66 | -114UD | 60.3 | 53.3 | -152 | +7.0% | +13.2% | -1 | |
ELITE |  Zach LaVine First Basket | prop | SAC @ SA Tue 7:00 PM CT | Proj 8.2 | +1280DK | 8.2 | 7.2 | +1121 | +0.9% | +13.0% | +0.4pp | |
ELITE | DET ML Moneyline | game | DET @ NY Tue 7:00 PM CT | Win 46.1% | +145BR | 46.1 | 40.8 | +117 | +5.3% | +12.9% | +1.0pp | |
ELITE | DET +4.5 Spread | game | DET @ NY Tue 7:00 PM CT | Fair -1 | -110FD | 58.8 | 52.4 | -143 | +6.4% | +12.3% | -1 | |
ELITE | Jrue Holiday Assists · Over 3.5 | prop | POR @ LAL Tue 10:00 PM CT | Proj 5.81 | +111UD | 53.1 | 47.4 | -113 | +5.7% | +12.0% | -6.0pp | |
ELITE | Quentin Grimes PRA · Over 14.5 | prop | POR @ LAL Tue 10:00 PM CT | Proj 19.16 | -104UD | 57.0 | 51.0 | -133 | +6.0% | +11.8% | +2.0pp | |
ELITE |  Julius Randle First Basket | prop | BKN @ BOS Tue 6:30 PM CT | Proj 11.6 | +860DK | 11.6 | 10.4 | +762 | +1.2% | +11.4% | -0.1pp | |
ELITE | Under 239.5 Total | game | PHI @ IND Wed 6:00 PM CT | Proj 230.2 | -108DK | 57.6 | 51.9 | -136 | +5.7% | +10.9% | +2 | |
ELITE |  Noah Clowney Points · Over 7.5 | prop | BKN @ BOS Tue 6:30 PM CT | Proj 11.12 | +102DK | 54.7 | 49.5 | -121 | +5.2% | +10.5% | -0.2pp | |
ELITE |  Paul George Rebounds · Over 4.5 | prop | BKN @ BOS Tue 6:30 PM CT | Proj 5.38 | +112DK | 52.1 | 47.2 | -109 | +4.9% | +10.4% | -10.0pp | |
ELITE | Noah Clowney Rebounds · Over 3.5 | prop | BKN @ BOS Tue 6:30 PM CT | Proj 4.1 | +118DK | 50.6 | 45.9 | -102 | +4.7% | +10.3% | +1.1pp | |
ELITE | Jrue Holiday Points · Over 10.5 | prop | POR @ LAL Tue 10:00 PM CT | Proj 15.27 | +100DK | 55.1 | 50.0 | -123 | +5.1% | +10.2% | -4.9pp |
Showing 25 of 151
02 · Full-Slate Projections
Moneyline · Spread · Total
Model win / cover / over probability vs the best price across all books · fair odds · edge % · tap a game to research it
| Time | Matchup | Proj Score · Total | Best ML · Model % | Fair ML | ML Edge | Spread · Cover % | Fair Line | ATS Edge | Total O / U | Total Edge | Best Bet | Line Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tue 6:30 PM CT Draft Kings | BKN0-3BOS2-1 | 102.6 117.9 | +500FD14.1% -625DK85.9% | +611 -611 | -2.6% -0.3% | +12.5-104FD46.4% -12.5-105DK53.6% | BOS -15.5 | -4.6% +2.4% | o222.5-108DK47.7% u222.5-106FD52.3% | -4.2% +0.8% | BOS -12.5 DK +4.7% | ML+1.0ppSPR-1TOT-0.4pp |
Tue 7:00 PM CT Draft Kings | DET3-0NY0-3 | 111.9 110.7 | +145BR46.1% -16436553.9% | +117 -117 | +5.3% -8.2% | +4.5-110FD58.8% -3.5-11236544.2% | NY +1 | +6.4% -8.6% | o218.5-110FD55.1% u219.5-11136547.1% | +2.7% -5.5% | DET ML BR +12.9% | ML+1.0ppSPR-1TOT+1 |
Tue 7:00 PM CT Draft Kings | SAC0-3SA1-2 | 108.3 122.8 | +1100FD10.1% -1650DK89.9% | +892 -892 | +1.8% -4.4% | +18.5-109BR56% -18.5-108DK44% | SA -14.5 | +3.9% -7.9% | o232.5-105UNI48.4% u232.5-110MGM51.6% | -2.8% -0.8% | SAC ML FD +21.2% | ML-0.4ppSPR+0.7ppTOT+2 |
Tue 10:00 PM CT Draft Kings | POR2-0LAL3-0 | 114.7 117.6 | +112FD43.9% -125DK56.1% | +128 -128 | -3.3% +0.5% | +2.5-114FD50.6% -1.5-114UNI52.7% | LAL -3 | -2.7% -0.6% | o233.5-108BR49% u233.5-105UNI51% | -2.9% -0.2% | LAL ML DK +1.0% | ML-3.1ppSPR+1TOT-3 |
Wed 6:00 PM CT No line | MIA0-4ATL2-2 | 115.8 121.8 | — — | +224 -224 | — — | — — | ATL -6 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 6:00 PM CT No line | WSH2-2CLE2-1 | 113.2 124.3 | — — | +463 -463 | — — | — — | CLE -11 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 6:00 PM CT No line | CHA3-1DET3-0 | 108.1 115.2 | — — | +261 -261 | — — | — — | DET -7 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 6:00 PM CT Draft Kings | PHI3-1IND2-2 | 116.2 114.0 | -13936556.8% +135CZR43.2% | -131 +131 | -1.4% +0.7% | -1.5-11736552.3% +3.5-110CZR54.3% | IND +2 | -1.6% +1.9% | o238.5-110FD44.4% u239.5-108DK57.6% | -8.0% +5.7% | Under 239.5 DK +10.9% | ML-3.1ppSPR+1TOT+2 |
Wed 6:30 PM CT No line | ORL1-2TOR2-1 | 110.1 115.8 | — — | +215 -215 | — — | — — | TOR -5.5 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 7:00 PM CT No line | NY0-3CHI1-3 | 118.6 112.2 | — — | -237 +237 | — — | — — | CHI +6.5 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 7:00 PM CT No line | HOU4-0MIL1-3 | 116.9 110.5 | — — | -237 +237 | — — | — — | MIL +6.5 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 7:00 PM CT No line | GS1-3MIN3-1 | 111.9 119.7 | — — | +288 -288 | — — | — — | MIN -8 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 7:00 PM CT No line | DEN1-2NO0-3 | 121.9 119.4 | — — | -140 +140 | — — | — — | NO +2.5 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 8:00 PM CT No line | SA1-2UTAH1-3 | 122.9 114.6 | — — | -309 +309 | — — | — — | UTAH +8.5 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 8:30 PM CT No line | OKC4-0DAL2-2 | 117.8 108.8 | — — | -346 +346 | — — | — — | DAL +9 | — — | — — | — — | — | |
Wed 9:30 PM CT No line | LAL3-0LAC1-2 | 114.0 114.7 | — — | +110 -110 | — — | — — | LAC -0.5 | — — | — — | — — | — |
Showing 16 of 16
03 · Player Props
Projection vs Market
253 props modeled · best price across DraftKings + Underdog · tap a row for full research
| Player | Status | Prop | Line | Model Proj | Diff | Over / Yes | Under | Model Side | Model % | Implied | Fair | Edge | EV | Move | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luka Doncic LAL G · vs POR | Points | 31.5 | 33.68 | +2.18 | -115DK | u32.5-112UD | Over 31.5 | 53.3 | 53.5 | -114 | -0.2% | -0.3% | -1 | ||
Luka Doncic LAL G · vs POR | Threes | 3.5 | 4.21 | +0.71 | -123DK | +107UD | Over 3.5 | 54.8 | 55.2 | -121 | -0.4% | -0.7% | -2.5pp | ||
Luka Doncic LAL G · vs POR | Rebounds | 7.5 | 7.64 | +0.14 | +100UD | -122UD | Over 7.5 | 49.1 | 50.0 | +104 | -0.9% | -1.8% | -0.9pp | ||
Luka Doncic LAL G · vs POR | Assists | 7.5 | 8.22 | +0.72 | -124DK | +106UD | Over 7.5 | 54.2 | 55.4 | -118 | -1.2% | -2.1% | -0.3pp | ||
Luka Doncic LAL G · vs POR | PRA | 47.5 | 49.54 | +2.04 | -116DK | u48.5-114UD | Over 47.5 | 52.5 | 53.7 | -111 | -1.2% | -2.2% | -1 | ||
Luka Doncic LAL G · vs POR | First Basket | 1st | 16.3% | +1.1pp | +454DK | — | First Basket | 16.3 | 18.1 | +513 | -1.7% | -9.6% | -0.4pp |
Showing 6 of 6
04 · Market Movement
Line Movement Tracker
Opening → current · 75 up · 116 down · snapshots stored every refresh
| Market | Selection | Open | Current | Price | Δ | Δ Implied | Trend | Move Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
propAssists | D. Sharpe Assists BKN @ BOS | 2.5 | 2.5 | -146 | +13.0pp | +13.0pp | 20 snapshots | 5.2 |
propPoints | D. Hunter Points SAC @ SA | 11.5 | 9.5 | -104 | -2 | line moved | 15 snapshots | 4 |
propRebounds | P. George Rebounds BKN @ BOS | 4.5 | 4.5 | +112 | -10.0pp | -10.0pp | 18 snapshots | 3.99 |
propThrees | Z. Williams Threes POR @ LAL | 1.5 | 1.5 | +153 | -9.5pp | -9.5pp | 18 snapshots | 3.82 |
propAssists | D. White Assists BKN @ BOS | 5.5 | 5.5 | +107 | -9.3pp | -9.3pp | 20 snapshots | 3.71 |
propThrees | S. Henderson Threes POR @ LAL | 1.5 | 1.5 | +129 | -8.4pp | -8.4pp | 18 snapshots | 3.36 |
gameTotal | O/U 233.5 POR @ LAL | 236.5 | 233.5 | -112 | -3 | line moved | 18 snapshots | 3 |
propPoints | W. Kessler Points POR @ LAL | 11.5 | 13.5 | -107 | +2 | line moved | 21 snapshots | 2.96 |
propFirst Basket | V. Wembanyama First Basket SAC @ SA | 1 | 1 | +245 | +7.0pp | +7.0pp | 18 snapshots | 2.78 |
propPRA | J. Holiday PRA POR @ LAL | 18.5 | 16.5 | -128 | -2 | line moved | 23 snapshots | 2.42 |
propAssists | J. Holiday Assists POR @ LAL | 3.5 | 3.5 | +103 | -6.0pp | -6.0pp | 18 snapshots | 2.41 |
propAssists | A. Thompson Assists DET @ NY | 3.5 | 3.5 | -117 | +6.0pp | +6.0pp | 16 snapshots | 2.4 |
propThrees | J. Hart Threes DET @ NY | 1.5 | 1.5 | -116 | +5.6pp | +5.6pp | 14 snapshots | 2.25 |
propThrees | Q. Grimes Threes POR @ LAL | 1.5 | 1.5 | +161 | -5.6pp | -5.6pp | 16 snapshots | 2.24 |
propSteals | P. George Steals BKN @ BOS | 1.5 | 1.5 | +114 | -5.4pp | -5.4pp | 14 snapshots | 2.15 |
propThrees | J. Collins Threes DET @ NY | 1.5 | 1.5 | +111 | +5.3pp | +5.3pp | 14 snapshots | 2.14 |
propRebounds | J. Morant Rebounds POR @ LAL | 3.5 | 3.5 | +129 | -5.2pp | -5.2pp | 14 snapshots | 2.08 |
propThrees | C. Sexton Threes POR @ LAL | 0.5 | 1.5 | +124 | +1 | line moved | 27 snapshots | 2 |
propThrees | D. Lillard Threes POR @ LAL | 3.5 | 2.5 | -161 | -1 | line moved | 19 snapshots | 2 |
propRebounds | Z. Williams Rebounds POR @ LAL | 3.5 | 2.5 | -158 | -1 | line moved | 16 snapshots | 2 |
propRebounds | T. Camara Rebounds POR @ LAL | 4.5 | 3.5 | -133 | -1 | line moved | 21 snapshots | 2 |
propRebounds | S. Mamukelashvili Rebounds POR @ LAL | 3.5 | 4.5 | +122 | +1 | line moved | 18 snapshots | 2 |
propRebounds | A. Reaves Rebounds POR @ LAL | 4.5 | 3.5 | -160 | -1 | line moved | 20 snapshots | 2 |
propRebounds | R. Williams III Rebounds POR @ LAL | 7.5 | 6.5 | -116 | -1 | line moved | 24 snapshots | 2 |
propAssists | D. Avdija Assists POR @ LAL | 4.5 | 5.5 | +109 | +1 | line moved | 23 snapshots | 2 |
Showing 25 of 191
05 · Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Model offense / defense in pts per game vs league average (115.61) · 2027 season, prior season regressed in
| # | Team | Record | Net pts/g | Off | Def | Win% vs Avg | L10 | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  OKCOklahoma City Thunder | 4-0 | +7.79 | +1.12 | +6.66 | 74.2% | 4-0 | W4 |
| 2 |  DETDetroit Pistons | 3-0 | +6.26 | +1.58 | +4.69 | 69.9% | 3-0 | W3 |
| 3 |  BOSBoston Celtics | 2-1 | +5.70 | -0.11 | +5.81 | 68.3% | 2-1 | W2 |
| 4 |  SASan Antonio Spurs | 1-2 | +4.69 | +1.92 | +2.78 | 65.2% | 1-2 | W1 |
| 5 |  MINMinnesota Timberwolves | 3-1 | +4.65 | +2.36 | +2.29 | 65.1% | 3-1 | L1 |
| 6 |  HOUHouston Rockets | 4-0 | +4.45 | +0.65 | +3.80 | 64.5% | 4-0 | W4 |
| 7 |  TORToronto Raptors | 2-1 | +2.90 | -0.80 | +3.71 | 59.6% | 2-1 | L1 |
| 8 |  ATLAtlanta Hawks | 2-2 | +2.85 | +2.45 | +0.40 | 59.4% | 2-2 | L2 |
| 9 |  NYNew York Knicks | 0-3 | +2.75 | -1.34 | +4.09 | 59.1% | 0-3 | L3 |
| 10 |  LALLos Angeles Lakers | 3-0 | +2.70 | +2.03 | +0.66 | 58.9% | 3-0 | W3 |
| 11 |  CLECleveland Cavaliers | 2-1 | +2.23 | +2.69 | -0.46 | 57.4% | 2-1 | W2 |
| 12 |  PORPortland Trail Blazers | 2-0 | +2.05 | +0.87 | +1.19 | 56.8% | 2-0 | W2 |
| 13 |  DENDenver Nuggets | 1-2 | +1.79 | +3.31 | -1.53 | 55.9% | 1-2 | L1 |
| 14 |  CHACharlotte Hornets | 3-1 | +1.45 | -1.71 | +3.16 | 54.8% | 3-1 | W2 |
| 15 |  LACLA Clippers | 1-2 | +1.08 | -1.38 | +2.46 | 53.6% | 1-2 | L2 |
| 16 |  PHIPhiladelphia 76ers | 3-1 | +0.40 | -0.79 | +1.19 | 51.3% | 3-1 | L1 |
| 17 |  ORLOrlando Magic | 1-2 | -0.51 | -0.70 | +0.19 | 48.3% | 1-2 | W1 |
| 18 |  MIAMiami Heat | 0-4 | -0.86 | +1.75 | -2.61 | 47.1% | 0-4 | L4 |
| 19 |  GSGolden State Warriors | 1-3 | -0.89 | -0.27 | -0.62 | 47.1% | 1-3 | W1 |
| 20 |  PHXPhoenix Suns | 1-2 | -1.04 | -2.53 | +1.48 | 46.5% | 1-2 | L1 |
| 21 |  MEMMemphis Grizzlies | 4-0 | -1.63 | -0.32 | -1.32 | 44.6% | 4-0 | W4 |
| 22 |  NONew Orleans Pelicans | 0-3 | -2.98 | +1.14 | -4.11 | 40.2% | 0-3 | L3 |
| 23 |  DALDallas Mavericks | 2-2 | -3.57 | -1.32 | -2.25 | 38.3% | 2-2 | W1 |
| 24 |  INDIndiana Pacers | 2-2 | -4.08 | -1.57 | -2.50 | 36.7% | 2-2 | L1 |
| 25 |  MILMilwaukee Bucks | 1-3 | -4.28 | -2.50 | -1.78 | 36.1% | 1-3 | W1 |
| 27 |  UTAHUtah Jazz | 1-3 | -5.95 | +0.59 | -6.54 | 31% | 1-3 | L2 |
| 26 |  CHIChicago Bulls | 1-3 | -5.95 | -0.43 | -5.51 | 31% | 1-3 | L2 |
| 28 |  WSHWashington Wizards | 2-2 | -6.53 | -1.69 | -4.84 | 29.3% | 2-2 | L1 |
| 29 |  BKNBrooklyn Nets | 0-3 | -7.30 | -6.07 | -1.23 | 27.2% | 0-3 | L3 |
| 30 |  SACSacramento Kings | 0-3 | -7.57 | -3.42 | -4.14 | 26.4% | 0-3 | L3 |
Showing 30 of 30