Clutch Algorithm
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MIL
MIL@ARI
IN PROGRESS
ARI
Game 1 of 8 Sat · Jul 4, 1:45 AM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · MIL vs Jose Cabrera · ARI vs Kyle Harrison

#1Corbin Carroll
Corbin CarrollLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
ARI· RFvs MIL LHP Harrison
🟢 Strong
Test
76
Ceil
85
Likely
66
kHR
79
Zone
42
Form
83%
EV
91.6
Brl%
12.2%
ISO
.246
xwOBA
.356
xwOBAc
.497
SwStr%
13.4%
PullBrl
5.7%
SwtSp%
30.0%
HH%
47.4%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .246, off-platoon but elite power+424MODEL
#2Ildemaro Vargas
Ildemaro VargasSHB#7 · Secondary Power
ARI· 1Bvs MIL LHP Harrison
🟢 Strong
Test
76
Ceil
87
Likely
71
kHR
81
Zone
56
Form
100%
EV
90.3
Brl%
14.7%
ISO
.240
xwOBA
.402
xwOBAc
.554
SwStr%
9.0%
PullBrl
6.4%
SwtSp%
41.3%
HH%
46.2%
elite Barrel 15%, power ISO .240, pull-side power+424MODEL
#3Jake Bauers
Jake BauersLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
MIL· 1Bvs ARI RHP Cabrera
🟢 Strong
Test
68
Ceil
57
Likely
55
kHR
75
Zone
41
Form
96%
EV
92.4
Brl%
13.3%
ISO
.228
xwOBA
.355
xwOBAc
.484
SwStr%
11.1%
PullBrl
5.1%
SwtSp%
34.1%
HH%
52.7%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .228+462MODEL
#4Ketel Marte
Ketel MarteSHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ARI· 2Bvs MIL LHP Harrison
🟡 Viable
Test
64
Ceil
65
Likely
56
kHR
70
Zone
41
Form
86%
EV
91.5
Brl%
11.4%
ISO
.222
xwOBA
.377
xwOBAc
.560
SwStr%
10.2%
PullBrl
5.9%
SwtSp%
33.6%
HH%
46.3%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .222 (matchup soft)+564MODEL
#5Christian Yelich
Christian YelichLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIL· DHvs ARI RHP Cabrera
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
52
Likely
49
kHR
62
Zone
40
Form
78%
EV
90.7
Brl%
9.4%
ISO
.188
xwOBA
.383
xwOBAc
.490
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
32.8%
HH%
44.1%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+720MODEL
#6Jackson Chourio
Jackson ChourioRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIL· LFvs ARI RHP Cabrera
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
52
Likely
49
kHR
62
Zone
40
Form
69%
EV
90.8
Brl%
9.7%
ISO
.193
xwOBA
.361
xwOBAc
.502
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.0%
SwtSp%
32.9%
HH%
44.5%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+706MODEL
#7Brice Turang
Brice TurangLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
MIL· 2Bvs ARI RHP Cabrera
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
51
Likely
48
kHR
61
Zone
41
Form
67%
EV
91.1
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.191
xwOBA
.348
xwOBAc
.475
SwStr%
9.6%
PullBrl
2.2%
SwtSp%
37.1%
HH%
43.9%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+735MODEL
#8Max Kepler
Max KeplerLHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
ARI· PHvs MIL LHP Harrison
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
60
Likely
48
kHR
56
Zone
35
Form
70%
EV
90.4
Brl%
8.8%
ISO
.175
xwOBA
.347
xwOBAc
.411
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.6%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
43.1%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+853MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — MIL
vs Jose Cabrera (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

MILMIL
vs Jose Cabrera (ARI)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — ARI
vs Kyle Harrison (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

ARIARI
vs Kyle Harrison (MIL)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
MIL vs Jose Cabrera
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
MIL

MIL hitters

vsJose Cabrera(ARIARI)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBMILvs ARI RHP Cabrera#5 · Premium RBI/Power+462M68.057.041.00096%75.21,174181.228.355.48411.1%5.1%92.413.3%34.1%29.7%52.7%10.155
LHBMILvs ARI RHP Cabrera#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+720M54.052.240.00078%61.82,512406.188.383.49011.3%3.9%90.79.4%32.8%31.8%44.1%15.449
RHBMILvs ARI RHP Cabrera#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+706M54.051.840.00069%62.22,297428.193.361.50211.3%4.0%90.89.7%32.9%31.9%44.5%15.549
LHBMILvs ARI RHP Cabrera#3 · Premium RBI/Power+735M54.051.141.00067%60.91,435216.191.348.4759.6%2.2%91.18.6%37.1%22.2%43.9%7.348
RHBMILvs ARI RHP Cabrera#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M32.048.842.00051%46.11,361265.125.347.5098.9%2.9%90.37.4%32.0%25.3%44.6%12.343
LHBMILvs ARI RHP Cabrera#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M32.045.436.00054%45.2757130.135.300.36511.3%2.7%89.46.8%32.0%30.7%40.1%14.440
LHBMILvs ARI RHP Cabrera#6 · Secondary Power+1329M30.042.033.00018%40.930443.088.300.35311.3%1.7%88.24.4%31.3%29.8%36.6%13.636
LHBMILvs ARI RHP Cabrera#7 · Secondary Power+1422M30.037.336.00023%38.01,096219.090.296.4214.5%0.9%86.02.3%29.1%19.3%27.0%9.634
RHBMILvs ARI RHP Cabrera#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1422M30.037.432.0006%37.720334.023.274.28411.3%0.8%86.62.0%30.3%28.5%31.7%12.433
ARI vs Kyle Harrison
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
ARI

ARI hitters

vsKyle Harrison(MILMIL)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBARIvs MIL LHP Harrison#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M76.085.342.00083%78.61,381231.246.356.49713.4%5.7%91.612.2%30.0%27.0%47.4%13.766
SHBARIvs MIL LHP Harrison#7 · Secondary Power+424M76.086.556.000100%81.31,443250.240.402.5549.0%6.4%90.314.7%41.3%36.1%46.2%19.571
SHBARIvs MIL LHP Harrison#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+564M64.065.441.00086%70.41,404280.222.377.56010.2%5.9%91.511.4%33.6%27.6%46.3%12.056
LHBARIvs MIL LHP Harrison#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+853M46.060.235.00070%56.21,849324.175.347.41111.3%3.6%90.48.8%32.6%31.5%43.1%15.248
RHBARIvs MIL LHP Harrison#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M32.058.833.00056%46.01,205224.148.372.50111.3%3.0%89.77.4%32.2%31.0%41.1%14.743
RHBARIvs MIL LHP Harrison#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M32.058.135.00032%45.31,357264.083.346.5009.3%2.5%90.16.7%29.4%18.2%44.2%7.643
RHBARIvs MIL LHP Harrison#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1351M32.053.332.00026%40.01,139211.123.332.48211.5%0.9%89.52.4%41.6%23.4%37.4%13.739
SHBARIvs MIL LHP Harrison#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1374M30.049.733.00032%39.31,365244.115.332.4274.7%1.5%87.13.2%34.8%22.5%30.6%13.438
RHBARIvs MIL LHP Harrison#6 · Secondary Power+1267M30.047.734.00054%42.91,209212.152.298.41710.8%2.8%85.36.5%35.3%26.0%31.8%18.439
MIL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
MIL hitters vsJose Cabrera(ARI)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Christian YelichChristian YelichLHB
.265.417.1528%45%27%
.272.394.1226%46%26%
.232.367.1357%40%37%
.217.345.1287%40%44%
.206.316.1106%37%47%
.225.357.1327%39%40%
.225.337.1127%37%40%
.203.293.0906%34%47%
#2Jackson ChourioJackson ChourioRHB
.310.567.25715%51%20%
.319.536.21712%52%18%
.271.499.22813%45%26%
.223.411.18811%39%36%
.212.377.16510%37%39%
.231.425.19412%38%32%
.288.502.21414%45%26%
.261.437.17612%42%31%
#3Brice TurangBrice TurangLHB
.272.486.21410%47%19%
.280.459.1797%48%18%
.238.427.1898%42%26%
.223.402.1798%42%31%
.212.369.1577%39%34%
.231.416.1858%41%28%
.231.393.1628%38%29%
.209.342.1337%35%34%
#4William ContrerasWilliam ContrerasRHB
.308.451.1438%48%16%
.316.426.1106%49%15%
.270.397.1277%42%22%
.221.327.1066%37%30%
.210.300.0905%35%32%
.229.338.1096%36%27%
.286.400.1147%43%22%
.259.348.0897%39%26%
#5Jake BauersJake BauersLHB
.277.531.25415%57%23%
.285.502.21711%58%22%
.243.467.22413%50%31%
.227.439.21213%50%37%
.216.403.18711%47%40%
.236.455.21913%49%33%
.236.430.19412%46%34%
.213.374.16111%43%40%
#6Garrett MitchellGarrett MitchellLHB
.278.488.21015%54%32%
.286.461.17512%55%30%
.244.429.18513%47%43%
.228.403.17513%47%52%
.217.370.15312%44%56%
.237.418.18114%46%47%
.237.395.15813%43%48%
.214.344.13011%40%55%
#7Sal FrelickSal FrelickLHB
.263.367.1043%29%9%
.270.347.0772%30%9%
.230.323.0932%26%12%
.215.303.0882%26%15%
.205.278.0732%24%16%
.223.314.0912%25%13%
.223.297.0742%24%14%
.202.258.0562%22%16%
#8Cooper PrattCooper PrattRHB
.191.221.0303%28%20%
.197.209.0123%28%18%
.167.195.0283%24%26%
.137.160.0233%21%36%
.131.147.0162%20%39%
.142.166.0243%21%33%
.178.196.0183%25%27%
.161.171.0103%23%31%
#9David HamiltonDavid HamiltonLHB
.247.353.1064%29%19%
.254.334.0803%30%18%
.216.311.0954%26%25%
.202.292.0904%25%31%
.192.268.0763%24%33%
.210.302.0924%25%27%
.210.286.0764%23%28%
.190.249.0593%22%33%
ARI Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
ARI hitters vsKyle Harrison(MIL)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Ketel MarteKetel MarteSHB
.280.528.24813%50%18%
.288.499.21110%51%17%
.246.465.21911%44%24%
.219.416.19710%42%30%
.208.381.1739%39%32%
.227.430.20311%41%27%
.251.450.19911%43%25%
.227.391.16410%39%29%
#2Geraldo PerdomoGeraldo PerdomoSHB
.256.388.1324%33%10%
.264.366.1023%34%10%
.224.341.1173%29%14%
.200.305.1053%28%17%
.190.280.0903%26%19%
.207.316.1093%27%16%
.229.330.1013%28%14%
.207.287.0803%26%17%
#3Corbin CarrollCorbin CarrollLHB
.282.556.27413%51%25%
.291.525.23410%52%23%
.247.489.24212%45%33%
.203.403.20010%39%45%
.193.370.1779%37%49%
.210.417.20710%38%41%
.263.493.23012%45%33%
.238.428.19011%42%39%
#4Gabriel MorenoGabriel MorenoRHB
.297.469.1729%48%15%
.306.443.1377%49%14%
.260.412.1528%43%20%
.244.387.1438%42%24%
.232.355.1237%40%25%
.253.401.1488%41%21%
.253.379.1268%39%22%
.229.330.1017%36%25%
#5Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Lourdes Gurriel Jr.RHB
.231.345.1146%35%21%
.238.325.0874%35%19%
.202.303.1015%31%28%
.189.285.0965%30%34%
.180.261.0814%29%36%
.196.295.0995%30%30%
.196.279.0835%28%31%
.178.242.0644%26%36%
#6Nolan ArenadoNolan ArenadoRHB
.255.427.1727%34%20%
.262.403.1416%35%19%
.224.375.1516%30%27%
.209.353.1446%30%32%
.199.324.1256%28%35%
.217.365.1486%29%29%
.217.345.1286%28%30%
.196.300.1045%26%35%
#7Ildemaro VargasIldemaro VargasSHB
.269.432.1634%34%12%
.276.408.1323%35%11%
.236.380.1444%30%16%
.210.340.1304%28%21%
.200.312.1123%27%22%
.218.352.1344%28%19%
.241.368.1274%29%17%
.218.320.1023%27%20%
#8Max KeplerMax KeplerLHB
.162.249.08710%49%15%
.166.236.0708%50%14%
.142.219.0779%43%21%
.116.181.0658%38%28%
.111.166.0557%36%30%
.120.187.0678%37%25%
.151.221.0709%44%21%
.136.192.0568%40%24%
#9Tommy TroyTommy TroyRHB
.247.408.16112%34%22%
.254.386.1329%34%20%
.216.359.14310%30%29%
.202.337.13510%29%35%
.192.310.1189%28%38%
.210.349.13910%29%31%
.210.330.12010%27%32%
.190.287.0979%25%37%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Corbin Carroll
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M42.000354N/A13N/A.269.356.515.246.37411.0%91.6
Ildemaro Vargas
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+424M56.000269N/A7N/A.256.300.400.240.3045.2%90.3
Jake Bauers
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+462M41.000301N/A15N/A.264.365.492.228.37113.0%92.4
Ketel Marte
SHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+564M41.000360N/A17N/A.267.322.489.222.3497.2%91.5
Christian Yelich
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+720M40.000228N/A5N/A.252.333.386.188.31810.1%90.7
Jackson Chourio
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+706M40.000238N/A12N/A.295.353.525.193.3778.0%90.8
Brice Turang
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+735M41.000368N/A12N/A.259.359.450.191.35313.6%91.1
Max Kepler
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+853M35.00013N/AN/AN/A.154.154.231.175.1660.0%90.4
William Contreras
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M42.000349N/A9N/A.293.358.418.125.3408.9%90.3
David Hamilton
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M36.000229N/A3N/A.235.312.327.135.2909.2%89.4
Gabriel Moreno
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M33.000232N/A6N/A.283.371.434.148.35511.6%89.7
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M35.000153N/A2N/A.220.268.319.083.2615.2%90.1
Tommy Troy
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1351M32.000108N/A3N/A.235.306.378.123.3039.3%89.5
Garrett Mitchell
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1329M33.000267N/A7N/A.265.361.452.088.35612.4%88.2
Sal Frelick
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1422M36.000281N/A3N/A.250.321.340.090.2968.9%86.0
Cooper Pratt
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1422M32.00051N/AN/AN/A.182.275.205.023.22911.8%86.6
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1374M33.000350N/A5N/A.244.358.359.115.32514.9%87.1
Nolan Arenado
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1267M34.000310N/A9N/A.243.316.395.152.3138.1%85.3
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Kyle Harrison
Kyle Harrison
MIL · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season79.7324.220.310.0901.0891.026.2%29.6%30.6%20.0%29.6%11.186.3%33.7%30.5%
vs LHB23.092.218.250.253.0351.0410.395.4%29.6%27.2%29.6%9.786.3%33.7%30.5%
vs RHB53.7217.207.282.325.1181.0481.346.5%29.6%32.7%29.6%11.916.3%33.7%30.5%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3022.395.256.422.1661.2152.014.2%29.6%27.4%29.6%10.486.3%33.7%30.5%
L1514.057.218.327.1091.0021.293.5%29.6%33.3%29.6%12.216.3%33.7%30.5%
Jose Cabrera
Jose Cabrera
ARI · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season13.360.296.463.1671.5832.028.3%27.5%16.7%27.5%6.759.7%38.7%25.8%
vs LHB5.723.273.339.409.1361.2411.594.3%27.5%17.4%27.5%6.359.7%38.7%25.8%
vs RHB4.018.235.333.412.1771.2512.255.6%27.5%16.7%27.5%6.759.7%38.7%25.8%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3013.360.296.463.1671.5832.028.3%27.5%16.7%27.5%6.759.7%38.7%25.8%
L1513.360.296.463.1671.5832.028.3%27.5%16.7%27.5%6.759.7%38.7%25.8%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Kyle Harrison
Kyle Harrison
MIL · LHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball58.7%.216.289.364.1480.0%31.9%36.5%24.3%0.0%95.00.0%38.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slurve30.4%.144.205.222.0780.0%26.5%28.4%18.9%0.0%82.20.0%23.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup9.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker1.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%94.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Jose Cabrera
Jose Cabrera
ARI · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Cutter28.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam27.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper16.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball12.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup8.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker7.3%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-07-03 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jul 2026