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SD@ARI
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ARI
Game 1 of 15 Wed · Aug 5, 1:40 AM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · SD vs Eduardo Rodriguez · ARI vs Randy Vásquez

#1Corbin Carroll
Corbin CarrollLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ARI· RFvs SD RHP Vásquez
🔥 Elite
Test
84
Ceil
95
Likely
74
kHR
84
Zone
55
Form
79%
EV
91.8
Brl%
12.3%
ISO
.229
xwOBA
.345
xwOBAc
.471
SwStr%
12.9%
PullBrl
5.6%
SwtSp%
29.3%
HH%
49.3%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .229, on-platoon+424MODEL
#2Ketel Marte
Ketel MarteSHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
ARI· 2Bvs SD RHP Vásquez
🟢 Strong
Test
66
Ceil
90
Likely
68
kHR
70
Zone
59
Form
75%
EV
90.3
Brl%
10.1%
ISO
.195
xwOBA
.351
xwOBAc
.518
SwStr%
10.4%
PullBrl
5.1%
SwtSp%
32.2%
HH%
43.4%
strong Barrel 10%, on-platoon+579MODEL
#3Max Kepler
Max KeplerLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
ARI· LFvs SD RHP Vásquez
🟠 Longshot
Test
58
Ceil
89
Likely
65
kHR
63
Zone
56
Form
70%
EV
90.4
Brl%
8.8%
ISO
.175
xwOBA
.347
xwOBAc
.411
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.6%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
43.1%
on-platoon (matchup soft)+686MODEL
#4James McCann
James McCannRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
ARI· Cvs SD RHP Vásquez
🟠 Longshot
Test
58
Ceil
89
Likely
65
kHR
63
Zone
55
Form
67%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.171
xwOBA
.362
xwOBAc
.476
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
42.8%
on-platoon (matchup soft)+686MODEL
#5Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
SD· RFvs ARI LHP Rodriguez
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
61
Likely
50
kHR
61
Zone
36
Form
47%
EV
92.2
Brl%
10.5%
ISO
.115
xwOBA
.354
xwOBAc
.505
SwStr%
13.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
31.4%
HH%
52.9%
strong Barrel 10% (matchup soft)+735MODEL
#6Manny Machado
Manny MachadoRHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
SD· 3Bvs ARI LHP Rodriguez
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
57
Likely
50
kHR
61
Zone
38
Form
89%
EV
90.6
Brl%
10.9%
ISO
.216
xwOBA
.325
xwOBAc
.451
SwStr%
12.7%
PullBrl
4.7%
SwtSp%
34.1%
HH%
44.1%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .216 (matchup soft)+728MODEL
#7Jackson Merrill
Jackson MerrillLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
SD· CFvs ARI LHP Rodriguez
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
56
Likely
48
kHR
58
Zone
36
Form
67%
EV
90.1
Brl%
10.7%
ISO
.160
xwOBA
.322
xwOBAc
.477
SwStr%
14.9%
PullBrl
4.0%
SwtSp%
38.1%
HH%
46.9%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+798MODEL
#8Lars Nootbaar
Lars NootbaarLHB#6 · Secondary Power
ARI· DHvs SD RHP Vásquez
🟠 Longshot
Test
44
Ceil
85
Likely
59
kHR
52
Zone
52
Form
46%
EV
89.2
Brl%
6.3%
ISO
.127
xwOBA
.344
xwOBAc
.414
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
2.5%
SwtSp%
31.9%
HH%
39.5%
no standout edge+1010MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — SD
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

SDSD
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — ARI
vs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

ARIARI
vs Randy Vásquez (SD)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
SD + ARI · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
SDvsARI

SD + ARI hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
SD Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
SD hitters vsEduardo Rodriguez(ARI)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Fernando Tatis Jr.Fernando Tatis Jr.RHB
.297.431.13412%58%24%
.306.407.1019%59%23%
.260.379.11910%51%33%
.244.356.11210%51%39%
.232.327.0959%48%42%
.253.369.11610%49%35%
.253.349.09610%47%36%
.229.303.0749%43%42%
#2Luis RengifoLuis RengifoSHB
.249.335.0865%40%17%
.256.316.0604%41%16%
.218.294.0764%35%23%
.194.264.0704%34%29%
.185.242.0574%32%31%
.201.273.0724%33%26%
.223.285.0624%34%24%
.201.248.0474%32%28%
#3Manny MachadoManny MachadoRHB
.221.462.24112%47%22%
.227.437.2109%48%21%
.193.407.21410%42%30%
.181.382.20110%41%37%
.172.351.1799%39%39%
.187.395.20811%41%33%
.188.374.18610%38%33%
.170.325.1559%35%39%
#4Ty FranceTy FranceRHB
.312.582.27012%54%24%
.321.550.22910%55%22%
.273.512.23911%48%32%
.256.481.22511%47%39%
.243.441.19810%45%41%
.265.498.23311%46%35%
.265.471.20610%44%35%
.240.410.1709%41%41%
#5Jackson MerrillJackson MerrillLHB
.249.430.18112%51%23%
.256.406.1509%52%22%
.218.378.16010%45%31%
.179.311.1329%39%42%
.170.286.1168%37%45%
.185.322.1379%38%38%
.232.381.14911%45%31%
.210.331.12110%42%36%
#6Xander BogaertsXander BogaertsRHB
.231.347.1166%42%20%
.238.327.0895%43%18%
.202.305.1036%37%26%
.189.286.0976%37%32%
.180.263.0835%35%34%
.196.297.1016%36%28%
.196.281.0855%34%29%
.178.244.0665%31%34%
#7Freddy FerminFreddy FerminRHB
.188.326.1384%29%20%
.193.308.1153%29%19%
.165.287.1224%25%27%
.154.270.1164%25%33%
.147.247.1003%24%35%
.160.279.1194%25%29%
.160.264.1044%23%30%
.145.230.0853%21%35%
#8Jake CronenworthJake CronenworthLHB
.225.309.0845%35%19%
.231.292.0614%36%18%
.197.272.0755%31%26%
.161.224.0634%27%36%
.154.205.0514%25%38%
.167.232.0654%26%32%
.209.274.0655%31%26%
.189.238.0494%29%30%
#9Jase BowenJase BowenRHB
.164.253.08912%39%30%
.168.239.0719%40%29%
.144.222.07810%34%41%
.134.209.07510%34%49%
.128.192.0649%32%53%
.139.216.07710%33%44%
.139.205.06610%31%45%
.126.178.0529%29%53%
ARI Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
ARI hitters vsRandy Vásquez(SD)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Corbin CarrollCorbin CarrollLHB
.259.517.25814%53%24%
.267.489.22211%54%23%
.227.455.22812%47%32%
.213.428.21512%47%39%
.202.392.19011%44%42%
.220.443.22312%46%35%
.221.419.19811%43%36%
.199.364.16510%40%42%
#2Geraldo PerdomoGeraldo PerdomoSHB
.251.395.1444%31%11%
.258.373.1153%32%10%
.220.348.1283%28%14%
.196.311.1153%26%18%
.186.285.0993%25%19%
.203.322.1193%26%16%
.225.337.1124%27%15%
.203.293.0903%25%17%
#3Max KeplerMax KeplerLHB
.240.403.16310%51%20%
.247.380.1338%52%19%
.211.354.1439%45%27%
.197.333.1369%44%32%
.188.305.1178%42%34%
.204.345.1419%43%29%
.204.326.1228%41%29%
.185.283.0987%38%34%
#4Ketel MarteKetel MarteSHB
.264.482.21811%47%18%
.271.455.1849%48%17%
.231.424.19310%41%25%
.206.379.1739%39%31%
.196.348.1528%37%33%
.213.392.1799%38%28%
.236.410.17410%40%26%
.213.357.1449%37%30%
#5Nolan ArenadoNolan ArenadoRHB
.255.457.2028%36%20%
.262.431.1696%36%19%
.224.402.1787%31%28%
.183.331.1486%27%38%
.174.304.1305%26%40%
.190.342.1526%27%34%
.238.405.1677%32%28%
.215.352.1376%29%32%
#6Lars NootbaarLars NootbaarLHB
.246.382.13610%55%16%
.253.361.1088%56%15%
.215.336.1219%49%22%
.201.316.1159%49%27%
.192.290.0988%46%29%
.209.327.1189%47%24%
.209.309.1008%45%24%
.189.269.0807%41%28%
#7Tim TawaTim TawaRHB
.219.381.1628%44%23%
.226.360.1346%45%22%
.192.335.1437%39%31%
.158.276.1186%34%42%
.150.253.1035%32%45%
.163.286.1236%33%38%
.204.338.1347%39%31%
.185.294.1097%36%36%
#8James McCannJames McCannRHB
.326.497.1718%46%25%
.335.469.1347%47%23%
.285.437.1527%40%34%
.234.360.1266%35%46%
.222.330.1086%33%49%
.242.372.1306%34%41%
.303.440.1378%41%34%
.274.383.1097%38%39%
#9Ryan WaldschmidtRyan WaldschmidtRHB
.306.444.1389%37%29%
.314.419.1057%37%27%
.268.390.1228%32%39%
.220.321.1017%28%53%
.209.295.0866%27%57%
.228.333.1057%28%48%
.284.393.1098%33%39%
.257.342.0857%30%45%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Corbin Carroll
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M55.000469N/A16N/A.247.343.479.229.35411.7%91.8
Ketel Marte
SHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+579M59.000475N/A19N/A.251.305.446.195.3236.7%90.3
Max Kepler
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+686M56.00093N/A2N/A.229.290.373.175.2868.6%90.4
James McCann
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+686M55.00092N/A3N/A.310.333.460.171.3452.2%90.3
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+735M36.000487N/A8N/A.283.354.399.115.3319.2%92.2
Manny Machado
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+728M38.000463N/A23N/A.210.294.428.216.31111.0%90.6
Jackson Merrill
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+798M36.000457N/A16N/A.237.289.398.160.2996.6%90.1
Lars Nootbaar
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1010M52.000183N/A3N/A.234.333.354.127.30813.1%89.2
Tim Tawa
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+960M54.000158N/A4N/A.209.268.353.146.2737.6%89.7
Ryan Waldschmidt
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1023M52.000165N/A1N/A.291.335.411.117.3265.5%88.9
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1158M52.000468N/A9N/A.239.356.366.127.32714.7%87.1
Nolan Arenado
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1050M54.000410N/A15N/A.243.324.423.178.3269.3%85.3
Ty France
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1248M33.000298N/A16N/A.297.350.539.103.3794.7%88.6
Jake Cronenworth
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1210M35.000224N/A3N/A.214.306.286.131.2749.8%89.3
Luis Rengifo
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1308M32.000268N/A2N/A.237.325.310.097.28910.4%88.4
Xander Bogaerts
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1267M32.000425N/A9N/A.220.315.321.100.28911.8%88.2
Freddy Fermin
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1329M32.000188N/A4N/A.179.266.302.088.2589.0%88.2
Jase Bowen
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1351M31.00067N/A1N/A.156.194.234.078.1933.0%88.0
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Randy Vásquez
Randy Vásquez
SD · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season83.3360.280.390.1101.44121.307.8%19.8%16.4%6.8%19.8%6.3711.7%45.9%29.7%
vs LHB50.7239.312.362.407.0951.7271.247.5%19.8%16.3%19.8%6.9311.7%45.9%29.7%
vs RHB43.3175.252.327.380.1281.2271.456.9%19.8%14.3%19.8%5.1911.7%45.9%29.7%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3018.091.375.487.1122.2231.5011.0%19.8%9.9%19.8%4.5011.7%45.9%29.7%
L159.047.400.475.0752.4411.0012.8%19.8%2.1%19.8%1.0011.7%45.9%29.7%
Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez
ARI · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season130.7533.232.311.0791.21130.908.4%20.1%16.5%10.6%20.1%6.068.8%35.3%28.0%
vs LHB39.7156.231.269.293.0621.0830.685.8%20.1%17.9%20.1%6.358.8%35.3%28.0%
vs RHB91.0377.232.301.320.0881.26100.999.5%20.1%15.9%20.1%5.938.8%35.3%28.0%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3028.7119.277.384.1071.3241.265.9%20.1%14.3%20.1%5.348.8%35.3%28.0%
L1516.771.292.338.0461.5010.548.5%20.1%12.7%20.1%4.868.8%35.3%28.0%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Randy Vásquez
Randy Vásquez
SD · RHP · 7 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball32.1%.220.275.331.1110.0%20.8%18.6%12.9%0.0%95.00.0%44.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter23.5%.382.481.737.3550.0%19.7%8.1%11.5%0.0%90.50.0%45.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker12.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%94.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball10.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%84.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup7.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper6.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%84.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider5.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez
ARI · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball39.2%.194.276.329.1350.0%21.4%25.9%18.4%0.0%92.00.0%41.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup26.7%.203.274.327.1240.0%23.5%12.9%12.6%0.0%85.80.0%24.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball12.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter12.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker8.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-08-04 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Aug 2026