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TEX
TEX@ARI
FIRST PITCH
ARI
Game 14 of 15 Sun · Sep 13, 8:10 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · TEX vs Eduardo Rodriguez · ARI vs Cal Quantrill

#1Corbin Carroll
Corbin CarrollLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
ARI· RFvs TEX RHP Quantrill
🟢 Strong
Test
76
Ceil
80
Likely
65
kHR
79
Zone
45
Form
78%
EV
91.8
Brl%
12.4%
ISO
.229
xwOBA
.342
xwOBAc
.470
SwStr%
12.5%
PullBrl
5.2%
SwtSp%
30.0%
HH%
48.0%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .229, off-platoon but elite power+424MODEL
#2Jake Burger
Jake BurgerRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
TEX· 1Bvs ARI LHP Rodriguez
🟢 Strong
Test
66
Ceil
82
Likely
62
kHR
72
Zone
40
Form
85%
EV
90.1
Brl%
12.3%
ISO
.194
xwOBA
.317
xwOBAc
.445
SwStr%
17.2%
PullBrl
5.4%
SwtSp%
30.0%
HH%
46.4%
strong Barrel 12%, off-platoon but elite power+517MODEL
#3Corey Seager
Corey SeagerLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
TEX· SSvs ARI LHP Rodriguez
🟠 Longshot
Test
58
Ceil
67
Likely
55
kHR
66
Zone
39
Form
87%
EV
91.4
Brl%
10.8%
ISO
.216
xwOBA
.415
xwOBAc
.514
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.5%
SwtSp%
33.2%
HH%
46.2%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .216 (matchup soft)+637MODEL
#4Wyatt Langford
Wyatt LangfordRHB#6 · Secondary Power
TEX· LFvs ARI LHP Rodriguez
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
64
Likely
52
kHR
62
Zone
37
Form
74%
EV
90.8
Brl%
9.5%
ISO
.190
xwOBA
.384
xwOBAc
.457
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
32.9%
HH%
44.2%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+713MODEL
#5Danny Jansen
Danny JansenRHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot
TEX· DHvs ARI LHP Rodriguez
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
63
Likely
51
kHR
62
Zone
37
Form
76%
EV
90.6
Brl%
9.2%
ISO
.184
xwOBA
.366
xwOBAc
.414
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
32.8%
HH%
43.8%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+720MODEL
#6Ketel Marte
Ketel MarteSHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ARI· 2Bvs TEX RHP Quantrill
🟠 Longshot
Test
54
Ceil
55
Likely
50
kHR
62
Zone
40
Form
74%
EV
90.2
Brl%
9.8%
ISO
.193
xwOBA
.347
xwOBAc
.506
SwStr%
9.9%
PullBrl
5.0%
SwtSp%
32.4%
HH%
41.9%
pull-side power (matchup soft)+706MODEL
#7Brandon Nimmo
Brandon NimmoLHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
TEX· RFvs ARI LHP Rodriguez
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
65
Likely
52
kHR
60
Zone
38
Form
55%
EV
92.2
Brl%
9.5%
ISO
.152
xwOBA
.348
xwOBAc
.502
SwStr%
11.5%
PullBrl
3.1%
SwtSp%
34.8%
HH%
51.3%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+758MODEL
#8James McCann
James McCannRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
ARI· Cvs TEX RHP Quantrill
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
55
Likely
47
kHR
56
Zone
36
Form
67%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.171
xwOBA
.362
xwOBAc
.476
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
42.8%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+863MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — TEX
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

TEXTEX
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — ARI
vs Cal Quantrill (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

ARIARI
vs Cal Quantrill (TEX)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
TEX + ARI · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
TEXvsARI

TEX + ARI hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
TEX Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
TEX hitters vsEduardo Rodriguez(ARI)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Justin FoscueJustin FoscueRHB
.281.538.25712%45%18%
.289.508.21910%46%17%
.247.473.22611%40%24%
.231.444.21311%40%29%
.219.408.18910%38%31%
.239.460.22111%39%26%
.239.435.19610%37%26%
.216.378.1629%34%31%
#2Corey SeagerCorey SeagerLHB
.236.460.22416%52%28%
.243.435.19213%53%27%
.207.405.19814%46%38%
.170.333.16312%40%53%
.161.306.14511%38%56%
.176.345.16913%39%47%
.220.408.18815%46%38%
.199.354.15513%43%45%
#3Josh JungJosh JungRHB
.310.475.1657%52%16%
.319.449.1305%53%15%
.271.418.1476%46%21%
.254.393.1396%46%25%
.242.360.1185%43%27%
.263.407.1446%44%23%
.263.385.1226%42%23%
.238.334.0965%39%27%
#4Jake BurgerJake BurgerRHB
.247.463.21614%50%29%
.254.438.18411%51%27%
.216.408.19212%44%39%
.202.383.18112%44%47%
.192.351.15910%41%51%
.210.396.18612%43%43%
.210.375.16511%41%43%
.190.326.13610%38%51%
#5Brandon NimmoBrandon NimmoLHB
.274.446.17211%55%19%
.282.421.1398%56%18%
.240.392.1529%49%26%
.197.323.1268%43%36%
.187.296.1097%40%38%
.204.334.1308%42%32%
.255.395.14010%49%26%
.231.344.1138%45%30%
#6Wyatt LangfordWyatt LangfordRHB
.256.480.2248%40%21%
.264.453.1896%41%19%
.224.422.1987%35%28%
.210.396.1867%35%34%
.200.364.1646%33%36%
.218.410.1927%34%30%
.218.388.1707%33%31%
.197.337.1406%30%36%
#7Ezequiel DuranEzequiel DuranRHB
.281.475.1947%42%22%
.289.449.1605%43%21%
.247.418.1716%37%30%
.231.393.1626%37%37%
.219.360.1415%35%39%
.239.407.1686%36%33%
.239.385.1466%34%33%
.216.334.1185%31%39%
#8Elias DíazElias DíazRHB
.252.437.18510%45%24%
.259.413.1548%46%23%
.221.385.1649%40%33%
.207.361.1549%39%40%
.197.332.1358%37%42%
.214.374.1609%38%35%
.214.354.1408%36%36%
.194.308.1147%34%42%
#9Danny JansenDanny JansenRHB
.195.382.1878%35%23%
.201.361.1606%36%22%
.171.336.1657%31%31%
.160.316.1567%31%37%
.152.290.1386%29%40%
.166.327.1617%30%33%
.166.309.1436%28%34%
.150.269.1196%26%40%
ARI Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
ARI hitters vsCal Quantrill(TEX)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Lars NootbaarLars NootbaarLHB
.246.402.15611%54%15%
.253.379.1269%55%14%
.215.353.13810%47%21%
.201.332.13110%47%25%
.192.305.1139%44%27%
.209.344.13510%46%22%
.209.325.1169%43%23%
.189.283.0948%40%27%
#2Ketel MarteKetel MarteSHB
.263.478.21511%45%17%
.270.452.1828%46%16%
.230.421.1919%40%23%
.205.377.1729%38%29%
.195.346.1518%36%32%
.212.390.1789%37%26%
.235.408.1739%39%24%
.212.354.1428%36%28%
#3Gabriel MorenoGabriel MorenoRHB
.317.501.1849%46%13%
.326.473.1477%47%12%
.278.441.1637%40%18%
.228.363.1357%35%24%
.217.333.1166%33%26%
.236.376.1407%34%22%
.295.444.1498%41%18%
.267.386.1197%37%21%
#4Geraldo PerdomoGeraldo PerdomoSHB
.261.390.1293%33%10%
.269.368.0992%34%9%
.229.343.1143%29%14%
.204.307.1032%27%17%
.194.282.0882%26%18%
.212.318.1062%27%15%
.234.332.0983%28%14%
.212.289.0772%26%17%
#5Corbin CarrollCorbin CarrollLHB
.250.504.25414%52%24%
.257.476.21911%53%22%
.219.444.22512%46%32%
.205.417.21212%45%38%
.195.382.18710%43%41%
.212.432.22012%44%34%
.213.408.19511%42%35%
.192.355.16310%39%41%
#6Nolan ArenadoNolan ArenadoRHB
.250.472.2227%34%20%
.257.446.1895%34%19%
.219.415.1966%30%28%
.180.342.1625%26%38%
.171.314.1435%24%40%
.186.354.1685%25%34%
.233.418.1856%30%28%
.210.364.1546%28%32%
#7Tim TawaTim TawaRHB
.260.440.18011%49%24%
.268.415.1479%50%23%
.228.387.15910%43%33%
.187.318.1319%37%45%
.178.292.1148%35%48%
.194.330.1369%37%40%
.242.389.14710%43%33%
.219.339.1209%40%38%
#8James McCannJames McCannRHB
.304.477.17310%48%26%
.313.451.1388%49%25%
.267.420.1538%42%36%
.219.346.1277%37%49%
.208.317.1097%35%52%
.227.358.1317%36%44%
.284.423.1399%42%36%
.256.368.1128%39%42%
#9Jordan LawlarJordan LawlarRHB
.266.444.1787%28%21%
.273.419.1465%28%20%
.233.390.1576%25%28%
.191.321.1305%21%39%
.182.295.1135%20%41%
.198.333.1355%21%35%
.247.393.1466%25%28%
.224.342.1185%23%33%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHand★SpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Corbin Carroll
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+424M45.000616N/A20N/A.238.331.467.229.34411.2%91.8
Jake Burger
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+517M40.000566N/A26N/A.235.306.429.194.3218.7%90.1
Corey Seager
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+637M39.000379N/A17N/A.225.319.426.216.32311.6%91.4
Wyatt Langford
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+713M37.000417N/A17N/A.244.331.444.190.34010.6%90.8
Danny Jansen
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+720M37.000184N/A6N/A.186.276.354.184.2827.6%90.6
Ketel Marte
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+706M40.000565N/A22N/A.250.317.443.193.3288.1%90.2
Brandon Nimmo
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+758M38.000606N/A14N/A.261.327.413.152.3247.9%92.2
James McCann
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+863M36.000148N/A5N/A.290.322.442.171.3334.1%90.3
Nolan Arenado
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1141M34.000545N/A24N/A.238.318.437.199.3299.2%85.0
Elias Díaz
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1109M38.000216N/A7N/A.240.272.405.163.2913.7%91.0
Justin Foscue
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1248M32.000225N/A11N/A.268.329.498.111.3577.1%88.8
Ezequiel Duran
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1210M30.000546N/A17N/A.268.328.440.172.3357.7%89.0
Lars Nootbaar
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1210M33.000282N/A6N/A.234.342.372.127.31714.2%89.2
Gabriel Moreno
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1158M41.000494N/A12N/A.302.379.464.162.36810.9%89.2
Tim Tawa
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1175M35.000303N/A10N/A.248.306.407.146.3127.9%89.7
Jordan Lawlar
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M32.000105N/A4N/A.253.317.411.106.3233.8%88.7
Josh Jung
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1397M37.000401N/A9N/A.295.362.440.125.3538.2%87.7
Geraldo Perdomo
SHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1397M35.000621N/A9N/A.249.356.361.112.32413.7%87.4
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Cal Quantrill
Cal Quantrill
TEX · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season69.3275.210—.313.1030.9791.174.4%19.7%20.7%4.6%19.7%7.40——7.8%36.2%28.2%——
vs LHB54.7233.230.300.329.0991.2671.158.6%19.7%21.5%—19.7%8.23——7.8%36.2%28.2%——
vs RHB48.0184.196.250.279.0830.8350.942.7%19.7%14.7%—19.7%5.06——7.8%36.2%28.2%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3032.0119.181—.259.0780.7530.842.5%19.7%23.5%—19.7%7.88——7.8%36.2%28.2%——
L1519.070.164—.299.1350.7431.424.3%19.7%24.3%—19.7%8.05——7.8%36.2%28.2%——
Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez
ARI · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season173.0710.232—.301.0691.20150.788.0%21.5%18.0%10.7%21.5%6.66——7.4%33.0%28.4%——
vs LHB51.3210.254.290.315.0611.2340.706.2%21.5%18.6%—21.5%6.84——7.4%33.0%28.4%——
vs RHB121.7500.221.281.294.0731.19110.818.8%21.5%17.8%—21.5%6.58——7.4%33.0%28.4%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3029.7120.202—.257.0551.0820.618.3%21.5%22.5%—21.5%8.19——7.4%33.0%28.4%——
L1518.075.197—.242.0451.1710.5010.7%21.5%24.0%—21.5%9.00——7.4%33.0%28.4%——
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Cal Quantrill
Cal Quantrill
TEX · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sinker25.4%—.218.275.318.100—0.0%14.9%17.1%18.2%0.0%94.0——0.0%34.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam23.3%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.8——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Splitter22.9%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%84.7——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter20.5%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.7——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball4.4%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.3——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider3.5%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.0——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez
ARI · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball39.6%—.200.275.326.126—0.0%21.3%25.9%17.1%0.0%92.0——0.0%38.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup26.9%—.206.277.333.127—0.0%27.9%16.7%14.6%0.0%85.4——0.0%21.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter13.1%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.7——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball12.0%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.6——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker8.5%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.5——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-09-13 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Sep 2026