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MIA
MIA@ATL
IN PROGRESS
ATL
Game 1 of 15 Tue · Aug 4, 11:15 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · MIA vs Grant Holmes · ATL vs Ryan Gusto

#1Kyle Stowers
Kyle StowersLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIA· 1Bvs ATL RHP Holmes
🟢 Strong
Test
78
Ceil
56
Likely
57
kHR
80
Zone
44
Form
86%
EV
92.0
Brl%
12.2%
ISO
.225
xwOBA
.329
xwOBAc
.449
SwStr%
18.8%
PullBrl
5.8%
SwtSp%
34.3%
HH%
54.5%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .225, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Matt Olson
Matt OlsonLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· 1Bvs MIA RHP Gusto
🟢 Strong
Test
78
Ceil
57
Likely
60
kHR
83
Zone
51
Form
100%
EV
92.6
Brl%
14.8%
ISO
.275
xwOBA
.360
xwOBAc
.506
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
5.7%
SwtSp%
31.8%
HH%
50.0%
elite Barrel 15%, elite ISO .275, park/wind suppresses+424MODEL
#3Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ATL· Cvs MIA RHP Gusto
🟡 Viable
Test
60
Ceil
39
Likely
49
kHR
72
Zone
45
Form
96%
EV
91.6
Brl%
14.8%
ISO
.195
xwOBA
.386
xwOBAc
.543
SwStr%
11.6%
PullBrl
4.3%
SwtSp%
36.0%
HH%
51.5%
elite Barrel 15%, park/wind suppresses (matchup soft)+521MODEL
#4Ronald Acuña Jr.
Ronald Acuña Jr.RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ATL· RFvs MIA RHP Gusto
🟠 Longshot
Test
48
Ceil
37
Likely
41
kHR
60
Zone
34
Form
47%
EV
92.2
Brl%
10.5%
ISO
.115
xwOBA
.354
xwOBAc
.505
SwStr%
13.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
31.4%
HH%
52.9%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+758MODEL
#5Michael Harris II
Michael Harris IILHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· CFvs MIA RHP Gusto
🟠 Longshot
Test
48
Ceil
36
Likely
41
kHR
61
Zone
34
Form
83%
EV
90.9
Brl%
11.7%
ISO
.201
xwOBA
.352
xwOBAc
.541
SwStr%
13.9%
PullBrl
4.3%
SwtSp%
28.9%
HH%
49.2%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+735MODEL
#6Griffin Conine
Griffin ConineLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
MIA· DHvs ATL RHP Holmes
🟠 Longshot
Test
44
Ceil
35
Likely
40
kHR
54
Zone
38
Form
53%
EV
90.1
Brl%
8.2%
ISO
.165
xwOBA
.353
xwOBAc
.462
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+914MODEL
#7Heriberto Hernández
Heriberto HernándezRHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
MIA· LFvs ATL RHP Holmes
🟠 Longshot
Test
44
Ceil
36
Likely
41
kHR
55
Zone
39
Form
66%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.172
xwOBA
.378
xwOBAc
.485
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
42.9%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+893MODEL
#8Austin Riley
Austin RileyRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
ATL· 3Bvs MIA RHP Gusto
🟠 Longshot
Test
44
Ceil
34
Likely
39
kHR
58
Zone
33
Form
59%
EV
90.9
Brl%
10.9%
ISO
.135
xwOBA
.293
xwOBAc
.393
SwStr%
15.6%
PullBrl
4.2%
SwtSp%
30.8%
HH%
44.0%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+816MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — MIA
vs Grant Holmes (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

MIAMIA
vs Grant Holmes (ATL)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — ATL
vs Ryan Gusto (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

ATLATL
vs Ryan Gusto (MIA)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
MIA + ATL · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
MIAvsATL

MIA + ATL hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
MIA Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
MIA hitters vsGrant Holmes(ATL)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Kyle StowersKyle StowersLHB
.246.496.25013%59%30%
.253.468.21510%60%29%
.215.436.22112%52%41%
.201.410.20912%52%49%
.192.376.18410%49%53%
.209.424.21512%50%44%
.209.401.19211%48%45%
.189.349.16010%44%53%
#2Griffin ConineGriffin ConineLHB
.284.592.30819%60%31%
.292.559.26714%61%29%
.248.521.27316%53%42%
.232.489.25716%52%51%
.221.449.22814%49%54%
.241.506.26516%51%46%
.241.479.23815%48%47%
.218.416.19814%45%54%
#3Otto LopezOtto LopezRHB
.337.517.1807%46%17%
.347.489.1426%47%16%
.295.455.1606%40%23%
.242.375.1336%35%31%
.230.344.1145%33%33%
.251.388.1376%34%28%
.314.458.1447%41%23%
.284.399.1156%37%27%
#4Owen CaissieOwen CaissieLHB
.247.488.24118%51%31%
.254.461.20714%52%30%
.216.429.21315%45%43%
.202.403.20115%45%51%
.192.370.17813%42%55%
.210.418.20816%44%46%
.210.395.18515%41%47%
.190.344.15413%38%55%
#5Heriberto HernándezHeriberto HernándezRHB
.244.505.26114%54%29%
.251.477.22611%55%27%
.213.445.23212%48%39%
.175.366.19111%41%54%
.166.336.17010%39%57%
.181.379.19811%41%48%
.227.448.22113%48%39%
.205.389.18411%44%46%
#6Jakob MarseeJakob MarseeLHB
.207.323.1164%36%16%
.213.305.0923%36%15%
.181.284.1034%31%22%
.170.267.0974%31%26%
.161.245.0843%30%28%
.176.276.1004%31%23%
.176.261.0853%29%24%
.159.227.0683%27%28%
#7Leo JiménezLeo JiménezRHB
.215.310.0956%50%20%
.221.293.0725%50%19%
.189.273.0845%44%27%
.155.224.0694%38%36%
.147.206.0594%36%39%
.160.232.0725%37%33%
.200.275.0755%44%27%
.181.239.0585%41%31%
#8Agustín RamírezAgustín RamírezRHB
.242.373.1315%44%26%
.248.352.1044%45%25%
.212.328.1165%39%36%
.174.270.0964%34%49%
.165.248.0834%32%52%
.180.279.0994%33%44%
.225.330.1055%39%36%
.203.287.0844%36%42%
#9Javier SanojaJavier SanojaRHB
.277.428.1512%33%10%
.285.404.1192%34%9%
.243.376.1332%29%14%
.199.310.1112%26%18%
.189.284.0951%24%20%
.206.321.1152%25%17%
.258.379.1212%30%14%
.233.329.0962%27%16%
ATL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
ATL hitters vsRyan Gusto(MIA)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Drake BaldwinDrake BaldwinLHB
.286.504.21816%56%20%
.294.476.18213%57%19%
.250.444.19414%49%27%
.234.417.18314%49%33%
.223.382.15912%46%35%
.243.432.18914%48%29%
.243.408.16514%45%30%
.220.355.13512%42%35%
#2Ronald Acuña Jr.Ronald Acuña Jr.RHB
.252.449.19716%49%26%
.259.424.16512%50%24%
.221.395.17414%43%35%
.181.325.14412%37%47%
.172.299.12711%35%51%
.188.337.14912%37%43%
.235.398.16314%43%35%
.212.346.13413%40%41%
#3Matt OlsonMatt OlsonLHB
.279.584.30516%54%21%
.287.552.26513%55%20%
.245.514.26914%48%29%
.229.483.25414%47%34%
.218.443.22512%45%37%
.237.500.26314%46%31%
.238.473.23514%44%31%
.215.411.19612%40%37%
#4Michael Harris IIMichael Harris IILHB
.301.527.22613%53%21%
.310.498.18810%54%20%
.264.464.20011%47%29%
.247.436.18911%47%34%
.235.400.16510%44%37%
.256.451.19511%46%31%
.256.427.17111%43%32%
.232.371.1399%40%37%
#5Ozzie AlbiesOzzie AlbiesSHB
.276.470.1945%31%18%
.284.444.1604%31%17%
.242.413.1714%27%25%
.216.370.1544%26%31%
.205.339.1343%24%33%
.224.383.1594%25%28%
.247.400.1534%26%26%
.224.348.1244%24%30%
#6Mauricio DubónMauricio DubónRHB
.274.429.1555%33%14%
.282.405.1234%33%13%
.240.377.1374%29%19%
.197.310.1134%25%26%
.187.285.0983%24%28%
.204.321.1174%25%23%
.255.380.1254%29%19%
.231.330.0994%27%22%
#7Lane ThomasLane ThomasRHB
.244.424.1807%46%18%
.251.401.1506%47%17%
.213.373.1606%41%25%
.175.307.1326%35%34%
.166.282.1165%33%36%
.181.318.1376%35%30%
.227.376.1497%41%25%
.205.327.1226%38%29%
#8Austin RileyAustin RileyRHB
.227.379.15212%48%28%
.233.358.1259%48%26%
.199.333.13410%42%37%
.163.274.1119%36%51%
.155.252.0978%34%55%
.169.284.1159%36%46%
.211.336.12511%42%38%
.191.292.10110%39%44%
#9Jim JarvisJim JarvisLHB
.276.419.1435%41%13%
.284.396.1124%42%13%
.242.369.1274%36%18%
.226.346.1204%36%22%
.215.318.1034%34%23%
.235.359.1244%35%19%
.235.339.1044%33%20%
.212.295.0834%30%23%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Kyle Stowers
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M44.000374N/A16N/A.234.319.459.225.3369.4%92.0
Matt Olson
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M51.000491N/A31N/A.266.342.541.275.37510.2%92.6
Drake Baldwin
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+521M45.000397N/A20N/A.272.365.467.195.36411.1%91.6
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+758M34.000266N/A9N/A.240.361.416.115.34414.3%92.2
Michael Harris II
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+735M34.000425N/A20N/A.287.315.488.201.3453.8%90.9
Griffin Conine
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+914M38.000143N/A10N/A.270.357.548.165.38910.5%90.1
Heriberto Hernández
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+893M39.000292N/A16N/A.232.305.468.172.3329.2%90.3
Austin Riley
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+816M33.000449N/A12N/A.216.294.351.135.2897.8%90.9
Agustín Ramírez
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M43.000129N/A2N/A.230.318.345.155.29510.1%89.2
Ozzie Albies
SHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1287M30.000484N/A18N/A.263.312.435.172.3226.4%86.8
Otto Lopez
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1229M40.000472N/A9N/A.321.354.479.158.3584.9%89.4
Owen Caissie
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M38.000249N/A12N/A.235.293.452.154.3187.2%89.8
Leo Jiménez
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1287M34.000141N/A2N/A.205.305.287.103.2758.5%88.6
Javier Sanoja
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M38.000298N/A4N/A.264.303.396.153.3065.4%89.8
Lane Thomas
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1267M32.000328N/A10N/A.232.326.393.112.32011.9%88.8
Jim Jarvis
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1248M33.00089N/A1N/A.263.314.388.125.3095.6%89.1
Jakob Marsee
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1397M34.000431N/A6N/A.197.317.299.102.28612.8%86.9
Mauricio Dubón
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1374M36.000437N/A10N/A.261.309.397.136.3106.2%86.7
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto
MIA · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season35.7161.274.377.1031.4851.268.1%20.7%18.6%5.5%20.7%7.577.9%45.2%24.6%
vs LHB22.0104.290.340.355.0651.7320.8210.6%20.7%15.4%20.7%6.557.9%45.2%24.6%
vs RHB17.071.232.270.319.0871.0621.062.8%20.7%25.4%20.7%9.537.9%45.2%24.6%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3020.791.277.386.1091.4031.316.6%20.7%19.8%20.7%7.847.9%45.2%24.6%
L1514.360.281.386.1051.3321.265.0%20.7%20.0%20.7%7.537.9%45.2%24.6%
Grant Holmes
Grant Holmes
ATL · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season104.0453.243.376.1331.38181.5610.2%26.7%19.4%12.5%26.7%7.629.8%42.9%27.9%
vs LHB59.0257.233.347.392.1591.41121.8311.7%26.7%19.5%26.7%7.639.8%42.9%27.9%
vs RHB42.7186.240.310.345.1051.3161.278.1%26.7%19.9%26.7%7.809.8%42.9%27.9%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3025.7110.257.347.0901.3231.057.3%26.7%19.1%26.7%7.369.8%42.9%27.9%
L1515.766.262.410.1481.3431.727.6%26.7%21.2%26.7%8.049.8%42.9%27.9%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto
MIA · RHP · 7 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball28.2%.217.322.385.1680.0%27.6%28.3%19.7%0.0%94.30.0%48.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup16.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter13.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker12.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper12.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider9.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball6.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Grant Holmes
Grant Holmes
ATL · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Slider36.2%.216.289.364.1480.0%40.1%34.1%25.4%0.0%85.40.0%39.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball29.7%.272.375.500.2280.0%15.1%10.3%11.2%0.0%94.20.0%48.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker11.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter8.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball7.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup6.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-08-04 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Aug 2026