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PHI
PHI@ATL
FIRST PITCH
ATL
Game 3 of 15 Sun · Sep 13, 5:35 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · PHI vs Grant Holmes · ATL vs Andrew Painter

#1Kyle Schwarber
Kyle SchwarberLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
PHI· DHvs ATL RHP Holmes
🔥 Elite
Test
84
Ceil
104
Likely
81
kHR
89
Zone
64
Form
100%
EV
92.4
Brl%
17.0%
ISO
.284
xwOBA
.365
xwOBAc
.489
SwStr%
15.1%
PullBrl
9.3%
SwtSp%
39.0%
HH%
49.5%
elite Barrel 17%, elite ISO .284, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Matt Olson
Matt OlsonLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· 1Bvs PHI RHP Painter
🔥 Elite
Test
84
Ceil
118
Likely
83
kHR
87
Zone
58
Form
100%
EV
92.7
Brl%
14.8%
ISO
.257
xwOBA
.355
xwOBAc
.501
SwStr%
11.7%
PullBrl
5.8%
SwtSp%
32.9%
HH%
51.4%
elite Barrel 15%, power ISO .257, on-platoon+424MODEL
#3Ronald Acuña Jr.
Ronald Acuña Jr.RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ATL· DHvs PHI RHP Painter
🟢 Strong
Test
70
Ceil
117
Likely
78
kHR
75
Zone
54
Form
70%
EV
93.0
Brl%
12.4%
ISO
.167
xwOBA
.373
xwOBAc
.538
SwStr%
12.3%
PullBrl
4.3%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
54.0%
strong Barrel 12%, 93.0 EV, on-platoon+458MODEL
#4Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
ATL· Cvs PHI RHP Painter
🟢 Strong
Test
70
Ceil
114
Likely
78
kHR
75
Zone
56
Form
80%
EV
91.5
Brl%
12.5%
ISO
.174
xwOBA
.365
xwOBAc
.522
SwStr%
12.5%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
37.2%
HH%
50.8%
strong Barrel 12%, on-platoon+462MODEL
#5Austin Riley
Austin RileyRHB#7 · Secondary Power
ATL· 3Bvs PHI RHP Painter
🟢 Strong
Test
70
Ceil
112
Likely
75
kHR
75
Zone
50
Form
65%
EV
91.4
Brl%
12.3%
ISO
.146
xwOBA
.300
xwOBAc
.412
SwStr%
15.7%
PullBrl
4.8%
SwtSp%
33.7%
HH%
44.9%
strong Barrel 12%, on-platoon+465MODEL
#6Bryce Harper
Bryce HarperLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
PHI· RFvs ATL RHP Holmes
🟢 Strong
Test
68
Ceil
96
Likely
69
kHR
72
Zone
50
Form
85%
EV
90.5
Brl%
10.7%
ISO
.222
xwOBA
.387
xwOBAc
.521
SwStr%
15.0%
PullBrl
4.2%
SwtSp%
38.4%
HH%
44.8%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .222, on-platoon+533MODEL
#7Michael Harris II
Michael Harris IILHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
ATL· CFvs PHI RHP Painter
🟡 Viable
Test
62
Ceil
110
Likely
71
kHR
68
Zone
48
Form
76%
EV
90.4
Brl%
10.3%
ISO
.197
xwOBA
.337
xwOBAc
.519
SwStr%
14.0%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
30.7%
HH%
47.4%
strong Barrel 10%, on-platoon (matchup soft)+609MODEL
#8Brandon Marsh
Brandon MarshLHB#7 · Secondary Power
PHI· LFvs ATL RHP Holmes
🟠 Longshot
Test
58
Ceil
89
Likely
63
kHR
63
Zone
51
Form
59%
EV
89.3
Brl%
8.2%
ISO
.151
xwOBA
.305
xwOBAc
.459
SwStr%
13.0%
PullBrl
3.1%
SwtSp%
41.6%
HH%
43.6%
on-platoon (matchup soft)+699MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — PHI
vs Grant Holmes (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

PHIPHI
vs Grant Holmes (ATL)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — ATL
vs Andrew Painter (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

ATLATL
vs Andrew Painter (PHI)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
PHI + ATL · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
PHIvsATL

PHI + ATL hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
PHI Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
PHI hitters vsGrant Holmes(ATL)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Kyle SchwarberKyle SchwarberLHB
.248.559.31119%53%29%
.255.528.27314%54%27%
.217.492.27516%47%39%
.203.462.25916%47%47%
.193.424.23114%44%50%
.211.479.26816%46%42%
.211.453.24215%43%43%
.191.394.20314%40%50%
#2Trea TurnerTrea TurnerRHB
.251.415.1647%43%24%
.258.392.1346%43%22%
.220.365.1456%37%32%
.180.300.1205%33%44%
.172.276.1045%31%47%
.187.311.1246%32%39%
.234.367.1337%38%32%
.211.319.1086%35%37%
#3Bryce HarperBryce HarperLHB
.285.538.25312%48%26%
.293.508.2159%49%24%
.249.473.22410%43%35%
.233.444.21110%42%42%
.222.408.1869%40%45%
.242.460.21811%41%38%
.242.435.19310%39%39%
.219.378.1599%36%45%
#4Luis ArraezLuis ArraezLHB
.332.461.1291%20%6%
.341.436.0951%21%6%
.291.406.1151%18%9%
.272.381.1091%18%10%
.259.350.0911%17%11%
.282.395.1131%17%9%
.282.373.0911%16%9%
.255.325.0701%15%11%
#5Alec BohmAlec BohmRHB
.258.419.1617%47%14%
.266.396.1305%48%14%
.226.369.1436%41%19%
.186.303.1175%36%27%
.177.278.1014%34%29%
.192.314.1225%35%24%
.240.371.1316%42%20%
.217.323.1065%39%23%
#6Bryson StottBryson StottLHB
.259.419.1607%40%16%
.267.396.1295%41%15%
.227.369.1426%35%22%
.213.346.1336%35%27%
.202.318.1165%33%29%
.220.359.1396%34%24%
.221.339.1186%33%24%
.199.295.0965%30%28%
#7Brandon MarshBrandon MarshLHB
.278.447.1699%47%21%
.286.422.1367%48%20%
.244.393.1498%41%29%
.228.369.1418%41%34%
.217.339.1227%39%37%
.237.383.1468%40%31%
.237.362.1258%38%32%
.214.315.1017%35%37%
#8J.T. RealmutoJ.T. RealmutoRHB
.229.372.1436%44%21%
.235.351.1164%44%19%
.201.327.1265%38%28%
.164.269.1054%33%38%
.156.247.0914%32%41%
.170.279.1094%33%34%
.213.329.1165%39%28%
.193.286.0935%36%32%
#9Justin CrawfordJustin CrawfordLHB
.278.383.1052%40%16%
.286.362.0761%40%15%
.244.337.0931%35%21%
.228.317.0891%35%25%
.217.291.0741%33%27%
.237.328.0911%34%23%
.237.310.0731%32%23%
.214.270.0561%30%27%
ATL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
ATL hitters vsAndrew Painter(PHI)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Michael Harris IIMichael Harris IILHB
.302.528.22611%51%21%
.311.499.1889%52%20%
.265.465.20010%45%29%
.248.436.18810%45%34%
.236.400.1649%43%37%
.257.452.19510%44%31%
.257.427.17010%42%31%
.233.372.1398%38%37%
#2Ronald Acuña Jr.Ronald Acuña Jr.RHB
.268.484.21614%49%25%
.275.457.18211%50%24%
.235.426.19112%43%34%
.192.350.15810%37%47%
.183.321.1389%35%50%
.199.363.16411%37%42%
.249.429.18013%43%34%
.225.373.14811%40%40%
#3Matt OlsonMatt OlsonLHB
.259.542.28316%56%22%
.267.512.24512%57%20%
.227.477.25014%49%29%
.213.448.23514%49%35%
.202.411.20912%46%38%
.220.464.24414%48%31%
.221.439.21813%45%32%
.199.382.18312%42%37%
#4Drake BaldwinDrake BaldwinLHB
.291.487.19614%55%21%
.299.460.16111%56%20%
.255.428.17312%48%29%
.238.403.16512%48%34%
.227.369.14211%45%37%
.247.417.17012%47%31%
.247.394.14712%44%31%
.224.343.11910%41%37%
#5Mauricio DubónMauricio DubónRHB
.277.413.1364%32%13%
.285.390.1053%32%12%
.243.363.1204%28%18%
.199.299.1003%24%24%
.189.274.0853%23%26%
.206.309.1033%24%22%
.258.365.1074%28%18%
.233.318.0853%26%21%
#6Ozzie AlbiesOzzie AlbiesSHB
.259.442.1834%30%17%
.267.417.1503%31%16%
.227.389.1624%27%24%
.203.348.1454%25%30%
.193.319.1263%24%32%
.210.360.1504%25%27%
.232.376.1444%26%25%
.210.327.1173%24%29%
#7Austin RileyAustin RileyRHB
.235.399.16413%49%27%
.242.376.13410%50%26%
.206.351.14512%43%37%
.169.289.12010%37%50%
.161.265.1049%35%54%
.175.299.12410%37%45%
.219.353.13412%43%37%
.198.307.10911%40%43%
#8Mike YastrzemskiMike YastrzemskiLHB
.243.407.1647%46%20%
.249.385.1366%47%18%
.213.358.1456%41%26%
.199.336.1376%41%32%
.189.309.1206%38%34%
.206.348.1427%40%28%
.206.329.1236%38%29%
.187.287.1005%35%34%
#9Ha-Seong KimHa-Seong KimRHB
.138.151.0133%27%18%
.141.143.0022%28%17%
.121.133.0123%24%24%
.099.109.0102%21%33%
.094.100.0062%20%35%
.102.113.0112%20%29%
.128.134.0063%24%24%
.116.116.0002%22%28%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHand★SpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Kyle Schwarber
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M64.000641N/A44N/A.236.350.518.284.37014.2%92.4
Matt Olson
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+424M58.000645N/A38N/A.247.321.502.257.3519.6%92.7
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+458M54.000421N/A17N/A.255.349.448.167.34811.6%93.0
Drake Baldwin
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+462M56.000559N/A23N/A.277.352.451.174.3529.1%91.5
Austin Riley
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+465M50.000582N/A17N/A.224.296.369.146.2957.6%91.4
Bryce Harper
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+533M50.000634N/A28N/A.271.386.498.222.38316.1%90.5
Michael Harris II
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+609M48.000570N/A25N/A.288.315.489.197.3453.7%90.4
Brandon Marsh
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+699M51.000534N/A17N/A.265.310.414.151.3136.0%89.3
Mike Yastrzemski
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+693M51.000367N/A9N/A.231.316.377.170.30910.1%90.2
Ozzie Albies
SHB#6 · Secondary Power+1079M52.000632N/A21N/A.247.302.409.162.3097.0%87.2
Alec Bohm
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1010M54.000574N/A15N/A.246.308.388.144.3077.0%90.4
Bryson Stott
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1010M52.000553N/A10N/A.247.324.388.142.3159.8%89.2
J.T. Realmuto
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1010M48.000420N/A10N/A.218.293.344.127.2857.6%89.2
Ha-Seong Kim
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1050M47.000119N/AN/AN/A.131.218.140.111.1799.2%88.8
Trea Turner
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1050M44.000640N/A19N/A.239.291.384.146.2966.3%88.4
Luis Arraez
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1229M53.000612N/A6N/A.316.348.427.112.3354.7%86.3
Justin Crawford
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1125M46.000428N/A3N/A.265.312.355.090.2965.8%88.2
Mauricio Dubón
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1158M50.000568N/A11N/A.264.309.382.119.3055.5%86.4
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Andrew Painter
Andrew Painter
PHI · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season100.3440.270—.405.1351.43181.618.0%24.5%19.8%3.4%24.5%7.80——8.5%35.7%26.6%——
vs LHB62.0278.285.352.412.1271.48111.606.5%24.5%18.3%—24.5%7.40——8.5%35.7%26.6%——
vs RHB48.0205.234.327.364.1301.3381.5010.2%24.5%22.4%—24.5%8.62——8.5%35.7%26.6%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3030.0123.219—.325.1061.1041.206.5%24.5%22.8%—24.5%8.40——8.5%35.7%26.6%——
L1518.073.206—.294.0881.0621.006.8%24.5%24.7%—24.5%9.00——8.5%35.7%26.6%——
Grant Holmes
Grant Holmes
ATL · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season133.7570.233—.345.1121.32191.2810.0%27.5%18.6%12.0%27.5%7.14——8.5%44.6%26.4%——
vs LHB84.0352.217.309.332.1151.27121.2911.1%27.5%18.2%—27.5%6.86——8.5%44.6%26.4%——
vs RHB53.3231.244.309.343.0991.3171.187.8%27.5%19.9%—27.5%7.76——8.5%44.6%26.4%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3023.796.207—.241.0341.1410.389.4%27.5%16.7%—27.5%6.08——8.5%44.6%26.4%——
L1514.054.216—.216.0001.0000.005.6%27.5%18.5%—27.5%6.43——8.5%44.6%26.4%——
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Andrew Painter
Andrew Painter
PHI · RHP · 7 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball32.0%—.355.435.582.227—0.0%14.8%10.6%10.5%0.0%96.5——0.0%37.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider18.4%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.0——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper16.5%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.7——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker9.3%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%95.1——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Splitter8.8%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%87.4——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup8.6%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%90.5——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball6.3%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%81.2——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Grant Holmes
Grant Holmes
ATL · RHP · 6 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Slider36.7%—.204.274.351.147—0.0%39.3%31.0%23.9%0.0%85.3——0.0%39.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball29.0%—.248.351.445.197—0.0%16.7%10.4%11.3%0.0%94.2——0.0%49.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker11.5%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.0——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter8.5%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.1——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball7.7%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%82.8——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup6.7%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%89.3——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-09-13 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Sep 2026