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LAA
LAA@BAL
FINAL
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Game 1 of 15 Tue · Aug 4, 10:35 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · LAA vs Cade Povich · BAL vs Grayson Rodriguez

#1Josh Lowe
Josh LoweLHB#7 · Secondary Power
LAA· RFvs BAL LHP Povich
🟢 Strong
Test
77
Ceil
64
Likely
60
kHR
79
Zone
45
Form
92%
EV
90.9
Brl%
12.2%
ISO
.231
xwOBA
.333
xwOBAc
.470
SwStr%
17.4%
PullBrl
5.9%
SwtSp%
35.5%
HH%
44.9%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .231, pull-side power+424MODEL
#2Pete Alonso
Pete AlonsoRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
BAL· 1Bvs LAA RHP Rodriguez
🟢 Strong
Test
75
Ceil
92
Likely
72
kHR
79
Zone
58
Form
90%
EV
94.0
Brl%
12.5%
ISO
.214
xwOBA
.377
xwOBAc
.528
SwStr%
11.9%
PullBrl
4.4%
SwtSp%
35.0%
HH%
55.1%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .214, 94.0 EV+424MODEL
#3Zach Neto
Zach NetoRHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
LAA· SSvs BAL LHP Povich
🟢 Strong
Test
71
Ceil
60
Likely
57
kHR
75
Zone
45
Form
80%
EV
89.3
Brl%
12.4%
ISO
.196
xwOBA
.306
xwOBAc
.401
SwStr%
16.8%
PullBrl
5.9%
SwtSp%
35.1%
HH%
39.6%
strong Barrel 12%, pull-side power, off-platoon but elite power+462MODEL
#4Mike Trout
Mike TroutRHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
LAA· CFvs BAL LHP Povich
🟢 Strong
Test
71
Ceil
69
Likely
65
kHR
81
Zone
56
Form
98%
EV
90.3
Brl%
17.2%
ISO
.209
xwOBA
.395
xwOBAc
.520
SwStr%
9.2%
PullBrl
6.7%
SwtSp%
36.5%
HH%
48.1%
elite Barrel 17%, power ISO .209, off-platoon but elite power+424MODEL
#5Colton Cowser
Colton CowserLHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
BAL· CFvs LAA RHP Rodriguez
🟢 Strong
Test
67
Ceil
82
Likely
65
kHR
70
Zone
56
Form
77%
EV
90.7
Brl%
9.4%
ISO
.189
xwOBA
.332
xwOBAc
.389
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.9%
SwtSp%
32.8%
HH%
44.2%
on-platoon+579MODEL
#6Carlos Narváez
Carlos NarváezRHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot
BAL· Cvs LAA RHP Rodriguez
🟡 Viable
Test
63
Ceil
82
Likely
64
kHR
67
Zone
56
Form
65%
EV
90.5
Brl%
8.9%
ISO
.178
xwOBA
.353
xwOBAc
.451
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.7%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
43.4%
on-platoon (matchup soft)+626MODEL
#7Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-StrandRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
BAL· 3Bvs LAA RHP Rodriguez
🟠 Longshot
Test
59
Ceil
79
Likely
62
kHR
64
Zone
55
Form
71%
EV
90.2
Brl%
8.5%
ISO
.169
xwOBA
.299
xwOBAc
.396
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.7%
on-platoon (matchup soft)+680MODEL
#8Coby Mayo
Coby MayoRHB#6 · Secondary Power
BAL· DHvs LAA RHP Rodriguez
🟠 Longshot
Test
59
Ceil
81
Likely
62
kHR
64
Zone
55
Form
68%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.171
xwOBA
.345
xwOBAc
.411
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
42.8%
on-platoon (matchup soft)+680MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — LAA
vs Cade Povich (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

LAALAA
vs Cade Povich (BAL)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — BAL
vs Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

BALBAL
vs Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
LAA + BAL · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
LAAvsBAL

LAA + BAL hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LAA Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
LAA hitters vsCade Povich(BAL)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Zach NetoZach NetoRHB
.242.460.21814%43%28%
.248.435.18711%44%26%
.212.405.19312%38%38%
.198.380.18212%37%45%
.188.349.16110%35%49%
.205.394.18912%37%41%
.205.372.16711%35%42%
.186.324.13810%32%49%
#2Mike TroutMike TroutRHB
.257.490.23319%52%20%
.265.463.19815%53%19%
.225.431.20616%46%27%
.211.405.19416%46%32%
.201.372.17114%43%34%
.219.419.20017%44%29%
.219.397.17816%42%29%
.198.345.14714%39%34%
#3Nolan SchanuelNolan SchanuelLHB
.287.411.1243%36%14%
.295.389.0942%36%13%
.251.362.1112%31%19%
.206.298.0922%27%27%
.196.273.0772%26%28%
.213.308.0952%27%24%
.267.365.0982%32%19%
.241.317.0762%29%23%
#4Vaughn GrissomVaughn GrissomRHB
.274.440.1668%45%19%
.282.415.1336%46%17%
.240.387.1477%39%25%
.225.363.1387%39%30%
.214.333.1196%37%32%
.233.376.1437%38%27%
.233.356.1236%36%28%
.211.309.0986%33%32%
#5Denzer GuzmanDenzer GuzmanRHB
.248.397.1496%37%20%
.255.375.1205%38%19%
.217.350.1335%33%27%
.203.328.1255%32%32%
.193.301.1085%31%35%
.211.340.1296%32%29%
.211.322.1115%30%30%
.191.280.0895%28%35%
#6Moisés BallesterosMoisés BallesterosLHB
.243.416.17310%50%23%
.249.393.1448%51%22%
.213.366.1539%44%31%
.174.301.1278%39%42%
.166.276.1107%37%45%
.181.312.1318%38%38%
.226.368.1429%45%31%
.204.320.1168%41%36%
#7Josh LoweJosh LoweLHB
.208.372.16410%41%26%
.214.351.1378%42%24%
.182.327.1459%36%35%
.149.269.1208%32%48%
.142.247.1057%30%51%
.155.279.1248%31%43%
.194.329.1359%37%35%
.175.286.1118%34%41%
#8Tyler HeinemanTyler HeinemanSHB
.183.254.071110%13%17%
.188.240.05285%13%16%
.160.223.06395%12%23%
.143.200.05790%11%29%
.136.183.04780%10%31%
.148.207.05992%11%26%
.164.216.05296%11%24%
.148.188.04085%10%28%
#9Wade MecklerWade MecklerLHB
.310.449.1395%34%21%
.319.424.1054%34%20%
.271.395.1244%30%29%
.223.325.1024%26%39%
.212.299.0873%25%42%
.231.337.1064%25%35%
.288.398.1105%30%29%
.261.346.0854%28%33%
BAL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
BAL hitters vsGrayson Rodriguez(LAA)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Leody TaverasLeody TaverasSHB
.230.364.1345%33%22%
.237.344.1074%34%20%
.201.320.1194%29%29%
.180.286.1064%28%37%
.171.263.0924%26%40%
.186.297.1114%27%33%
.206.310.1044%28%31%
.186.270.0844%26%36%
#2Pete AlonsoPete AlonsoRHB
.264.502.23814%60%23%
.271.474.20311%61%22%
.231.442.21112%52%31%
.189.364.17510%46%42%
.180.334.1549%43%45%
.196.376.18011%45%38%
.245.445.20013%53%31%
.222.387.16511%49%36%
#3Gunnar HendersonGunnar HendersonLHB
.230.428.1988%48%21%
.237.404.1676%49%19%
.201.376.1757%42%28%
.189.353.1647%42%33%
.179.324.1456%40%36%
.195.366.1717%41%30%
.196.346.1506%39%31%
.177.301.1246%36%36%
#4Christian Encarnacion-StrandChristian Encarnacion-StrandRHB
.303.625.32218%42%19%
.312.591.27914%43%18%
.266.550.28415%37%26%
.218.453.23513%32%35%
.207.415.20812%30%38%
.226.469.24314%31%32%
.283.554.27116%37%26%
.255.482.22714%34%30%
#5Jackson HollidayJackson HollidayLHB
.265.418.1539%40%26%
.272.395.1237%41%24%
.232.368.1367%35%35%
.217.345.1287%35%42%
.206.317.1117%33%45%
.225.358.1337%34%38%
.225.338.1137%32%38%
.203.294.0916%30%45%
#6Coby MayoCoby MayoRHB
.209.443.23413%54%28%
.215.418.20310%55%26%
.183.389.20611%48%37%
.150.321.17110%41%51%
.143.294.1519%39%55%
.156.332.17610%41%46%
.195.392.19712%48%38%
.176.341.16510%44%44%
#7Christian FranklinChristian FranklinRHB
#8Colton CowserColton CowserLHB
.214.350.13611%39%29%
.220.330.1109%40%27%
.188.308.12010%34%39%
.176.289.11310%34%46%
.167.265.0989%32%50%
.182.299.11710%33%42%
.182.283.1019%32%42%
.165.246.0818%29%50%
#9Carlos NarváezCarlos NarváezRHB
.196.297.1018%41%29%
.202.281.0796%42%27%
.172.261.0897%36%39%
.141.215.0746%32%54%
.134.197.0635%30%57%
.146.223.0776%31%48%
.183.263.0807%37%39%
.165.229.0646%34%46%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Josh Lowe
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+424M45.000209N/A8N/A.198.251.344.231.2606.2%90.9
Pete Alonso
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M58.000486N/A23N/A.251.346.465.214.35211.5%94.0
Zach Neto
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+462M45.000488N/A19N/A.230.320.426.196.32710.0%89.3
Mike Trout
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M56.000417N/A18N/A.245.391.454.209.36818.2%90.3
Colton Cowser
LHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+579M56.000265N/A8N/A.204.314.324.189.29213.6%90.7
Carlos Narváez
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+626M56.000197N/A3N/A.187.260.275.178.2447.1%90.5
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+680M55.00043N/A3N/A.289.357.579.169.3929.3%90.2
Coby Mayo
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+680M55.000281N/A14N/A.199.267.410.171.2957.5%90.3
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+774M39.000175N/A6N/A.231.303.385.176.3039.7%90.4
Denzer Guzman
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+863M38.000155N/A5N/A.236.286.368.167.2895.8%90.2
Leody Taveras
SHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1050M50.000342N/A5N/A.219.300.337.099.2869.9%88.5
Gunnar Henderson
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+948M51.000506N/A18N/A.219.291.396.177.3007.7%89.5
Jackson Holliday
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+960M52.000194N/A5N/A.252.356.387.133.33014.4%89.3
Christian Franklin
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+925M54.000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A.000N/AN/A89.8
Tyler Heineman
SHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M36.000129N/A1N/A.174.228.235.127.2123.9%89.2
Nolan Schanuel
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1397M40.000383N/A6N/A.273.345.381.108.3248.6%87.4
Vaughn Grissom
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1422M32.000272N/A7N/A.261.328.407.029.3237.7%86.7
Wade Meckler
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1287M33.000165N/A3N/A.295.364.416.092.3469.1%88.3
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Grayson Rodriguez
Grayson Rodriguez
LAA · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season51.0234.285.415.1301.5991.599.4%22.1%17.9%6.2%22.1%7.4111.6%52.4%30.6%
vs LHB25.3126.321.389.429.1081.9741.4211.1%22.1%14.3%22.1%6.3911.6%52.4%30.6%
vs RHB25.7108.230.322.380.1501.2151.757.4%22.1%22.2%22.1%8.4211.6%52.4%30.6%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3025.3111.270.420.1501.3451.786.3%22.1%16.2%22.1%6.3911.6%52.4%30.6%
L1516.066.233.433.2001.1942.257.6%22.1%22.7%22.1%8.4411.6%52.4%30.6%
Cade Povich
Cade Povich
BAL · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season19.781.293.413.1201.3731.376.2%26.1%21.0%12.9%26.1%7.789.7%45.2%32.3%
vs LHB7.738.378.484.622.2441.9633.522.6%26.1%13.2%26.1%5.879.7%45.2%32.3%
vs RHB17.067.200.260.250.0501.1210.5310.4%26.1%20.9%26.1%7.419.7%45.2%32.3%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3019.781.293.413.1201.3731.376.2%26.1%21.0%26.1%7.789.7%45.2%32.3%
L1513.057.333.510.1771.6932.088.8%26.1%21.1%26.1%8.319.7%45.2%32.3%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Grayson Rodriguez
Grayson Rodriguez
LAA · RHP · 4 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball53.4%.343.445.638.2950.0%15.1%13.0%11.6%0.0%96.20.0%59.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup23.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball12.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%80.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider10.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%84.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cade Povich
Cade Povich
BAL · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball42.6%.268.352.444.1760.0%18.6%22.9%21.9%0.0%91.90.0%52.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball21.4%.309.394.485.1760.0%29.0%24.5%16.7%0.0%76.20.0%37.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider15.6%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup11.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker9.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-08-04 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Aug 2026