Clutch Algorithm
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NYY
NYY@BOS
FIRST PITCH
BOS
Game 15 of 15 Sun · Jun 28, 11:20 PM
CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · NYY vs Sonny Gray · BOS vs Carlos Rodón

#1Ben Rice
Ben RiceLHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
NYY· DHvs BOS RHP Gray
🟢 Strong
Test
79
Ceil
76
Likely
67
kHR
83
Zone
52
Form
100%
EV
91.6
Brl%
14.4%
ISO
.302
xwOBA
.379
xwOBAc
.529
SwStr%
10.7%
PullBrl
6.7%
SwtSp%
39.4%
HH%
46.2%
elite Barrel 14%, elite ISO .302, off-platoon but elite power+424MODEL
#2Willson Contreras
Willson ContrerasRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
BOS· 1Bvs NYY LHP Rodón
🟢 Strong
Test
71
Ceil
69
Likely
59
kHR
77
Zone
41
Form
100%
EV
90.1
Brl%
13.3%
ISO
.244
xwOBA
.375
xwOBAc
.507
SwStr%
15.2%
PullBrl
6.5%
SwtSp%
32.0%
HH%
45.2%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .244, off-platoon but elite power+439MODEL
#3Austin Wells
Austin WellsLHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot
NYY· Cvs BOS RHP Gray
🟠 Longshot
Test
57
Ceil
53
Likely
50
kHR
65
Zone
39
Form
85%
EV
91.4
Brl%
10.8%
ISO
.217
xwOBA
.348
xwOBAc
.437
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.5%
SwtSp%
33.3%
HH%
46.3%
strong Barrel 11%, power ISO .217 (matchup soft)+649MODEL
#4Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.LHB#7 · Secondary Power
NYY· 2Bvs BOS RHP Gray
🟠 Longshot
Test
49
Ceil
48
Likely
43
kHR
58
Zone
28
Form
70%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.9%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.299
xwOBAc
.398
SwStr%
14.0%
PullBrl
4.8%
SwtSp%
28.0%
HH%
39.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+807MODEL
#5Anthony Volpe
Anthony VolpeRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
NYY· SSvs BOS RHP Gray
🟠 Longshot
Test
49
Ceil
49
Likely
45
kHR
58
Zone
36
Form
64%
EV
90.5
Brl%
8.9%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.330
xwOBAc
.407
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.7%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
43.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+807MODEL
#6Carlos Narváez
Carlos NarváezRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
BOS· Cvs NYY LHP Rodón
🟠 Longshot
Test
49
Ceil
47
Likely
44
kHR
58
Zone
34
Form
65%
EV
90.5
Brl%
8.9%
ISO
.178
xwOBA
.353
xwOBAc
.451
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.7%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
43.4%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+807MODEL
#7Amed Rosario
Amed RosarioRHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
NYY· 3Bvs BOS RHP Gray
🟠 Longshot
Test
45
Ceil
48
Likely
44
kHR
55
Zone
35
Form
59%
EV
90.0
Brl%
8.0%
ISO
.160
xwOBA
.347
xwOBAc
.494
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.3%
SwtSp%
32.4%
HH%
42.0%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+904MODEL
#8Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer AbreuLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
BOS· RFvs NYY LHP Rodón
🟠 Longshot
Test
45
Ceil
48
Likely
46
kHR
59
Zone
39
Form
67%
EV
89.8
Brl%
11.7%
ISO
.173
xwOBA
.342
xwOBAc
.493
SwStr%
11.1%
PullBrl
4.1%
SwtSp%
34.9%
HH%
41.5%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+782MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — NYY
vs Sonny Gray (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

NYYNYY
vs Sonny Gray (BOS)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — BOS
vs Carlos Rodón (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

BOSBOS
vs Carlos Rodón (NYY)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
NYY vs Sonny Gray
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
NYY

NYY hitters

vsSonny Gray(BOSBOS)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBNYYvs BOS RHP Gray#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M78.976.052.000100%82.91,271206.302.379.52910.7%6.7%91.614.4%39.4%27.9%46.2%14.267
LHBNYYvs BOS RHP Gray#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+649M56.952.639.00085%65.41,747283.217.348.43711.3%4.5%91.410.8%33.3%32.3%46.3%15.950
LHBNYYvs BOS RHP Gray#7 · Secondary Power+807M48.947.728.00070%58.11,232191.179.299.39814.0%4.8%90.38.9%28.0%28.5%39.4%16.143
RHBNYYvs BOS RHP Gray#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+807M48.949.136.00064%58.12,324389.179.330.40711.3%3.7%90.58.9%32.7%31.6%43.4%15.245
RHBNYYvs BOS RHP Gray#3 · Premium RBI/Power+904M44.948.235.00059%54.5745150.160.347.49411.3%3.3%90.08.0%32.4%31.2%42.0%14.944
LHBNYYvs BOS RHP Gray#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1065M38.947.142.00064%50.41,342246.188.368.5118.5%3.2%89.07.7%40.2%31.5%36.8%18.743
RHBNYYvs BOS RHP Gray#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1229M30.945.933.00042%44.22,083389.129.347.47611.3%2.6%89.26.5%31.9%30.6%39.7%14.339
SHBNYYvs BOS RHP Gray#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1229M30.946.333.00047%44.31,673266.131.350.45111.3%2.7%89.36.6%32.0%30.6%39.8%14.439
RHBNYYvs BOS RHP Gray#6 · Secondary Power+1267M30.944.632.00035%42.91,443216.111.347.40911.3%2.2%88.85.5%31.7%30.2%38.3%14.038
BOS vs Carlos Rodón
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
BOS

BOS hitters

vsCarlos Rodón(NYYNYY)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBBOSvs NYY LHP Rodón#4 · Premium RBI/Power+439M70.968.841.000100%76.51,268194.244.375.50715.2%6.5%90.113.3%32.0%25.9%45.2%17.359
RHBBOSvs NYY LHP Rodón#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+807M48.947.234.00065%58.11,739292.178.353.45111.3%3.7%90.58.9%32.7%31.6%43.4%15.244
LHBBOSvs NYY LHP Rodón#3 · Premium RBI/Power+782M44.947.539.00067%58.91,314237.173.342.49311.1%4.1%89.811.7%34.9%35.7%41.5%18.046
LHBBOSvs NYY LHP Rodón#5 · Premium RBI/Power+816M44.944.830.00070%57.81,271203.164.291.41817.6%4.6%89.510.8%32.0%19.9%38.3%13.342
LHBBOSvs NYY LHP Rodón#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M30.936.432.00015%45.5274.000.065.00011.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.736
RHBBOSvs NYY LHP Rodón#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1351M28.940.328.00027%40.135162.087.343.48711.3%1.7%88.24.3%31.3%29.7%36.5%13.634
RHBBOSvs NYY LHP Rodón#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1308M28.936.328.00047%41.21,182220.160.287.41813.2%2.0%86.15.5%36.7%24.4%35.3%10.833
RHBBOSvs NYY LHP Rodón#6 · Secondary Power+1422M28.933.331.00042%37.91,010199.157.281.4047.3%1.3%85.03.0%26.6%16.3%30.5%10.332
SHBBOSvs NYY LHP Rodón#7 · Secondary Power+1447M28.934.427.0006%37.028546.016.273.29911.3%0.8%86.42.0%30.2%28.3%31.2%12.331
NYY Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
NYY hitters vsSonny Gray(BOS)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Paul GoldschmidtPaul GoldschmidtRHB
.316.617.30114%43%21%
.325.582.25711%44%19%
.277.542.26512%38%28%
.227.447.22010%33%38%
.216.410.1949%31%41%
.235.462.22711%32%34%
.294.546.25212%38%28%
.266.475.20911%35%33%
#2Ben RiceBen RiceLHB
.295.631.33616%50%21%
.303.596.29312%51%20%
.259.555.29614%44%29%
.242.521.27914%44%34%
.230.478.24812%41%37%
.251.540.28914%43%31%
.251.510.25913%41%31%
.227.444.21712%38%37%
#3Amed RosarioAmed RosarioRHB
.260.509.24913%43%22%
.268.480.21210%44%21%
.228.447.21911%38%30%
.187.368.18110%33%41%
.178.338.1609%31%44%
.194.381.18710%32%37%
.242.451.20912%38%30%
.219.392.17310%35%35%
#4Cody BellingerCody BellingerLHB
.280.495.2159%40%16%
.288.467.1797%41%15%
.246.435.1897%35%22%
.230.409.1797%35%26%
.219.375.1567%33%28%
.238.423.1858%34%23%
.238.400.1627%32%24%
.216.348.1326%30%28%
#5Jasson DomínguezJasson DomínguezSHB
.242.467.2254%42%26%
.248.441.1933%43%25%
.212.410.1983%37%35%
.189.367.1783%35%44%
.179.337.1583%33%47%
.196.380.1843%34%40%
.216.397.1813%36%37%
.196.346.1503%33%43%
#6José CaballeroJosé CaballeroRHB
.272.444.1724%28%23%
.280.419.1393%28%22%
.238.390.1523%24%31%
.195.321.1263%21%42%
.186.295.1093%20%45%
.203.333.1303%21%38%
.253.393.1403%25%31%
.229.342.1133%23%36%
#7Jazz Chisholm Jr.Jazz Chisholm Jr.LHB
.239.442.20310%42%27%
.246.417.1718%43%26%
.210.389.1799%37%37%
.196.365.1698%37%44%
.187.335.1488%35%47%
.203.378.1759%36%40%
.204.357.1538%34%40%
.184.311.1277%32%47%
#8Anthony VolpeAnthony VolpeRHB
.273.384.1114%39%23%
.281.363.0823%40%21%
.239.338.0994%35%31%
.196.278.0823%30%42%
.187.255.0683%29%45%
.203.288.0853%30%38%
.254.341.0874%35%31%
.230.296.0663%32%36%
#9Austin WellsAustin WellsLHB
.173.273.1007%48%25%
.178.258.0805%48%24%
.152.240.0886%42%34%
.142.226.0846%42%41%
.135.207.0725%39%44%
.147.234.0876%41%37%
.147.221.0746%39%37%
.133.192.0595%36%44%
BOS Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
BOS hitters vsCarlos Rodón(NYY)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Nate EatonNate EatonRHB
.263.608.34517%50%23%
.270.574.30413%51%21%
.230.535.30515%44%31%
.215.502.28715%44%37%
.205.461.25613%41%39%
.223.520.29715%43%33%
.223.492.26914%40%34%
.202.428.22612%37%39%
#2Ceddanne RafaelaCeddanne RafaelaRHB
.299.484.1856%39%21%
.308.457.1495%40%20%
.262.426.1645%34%29%
.245.400.1555%34%34%
.233.367.1345%32%37%
.254.414.1605%33%31%
.255.392.1375%31%32%
.230.340.1105%29%37%
#3Wilyer AbreuWilyer AbreuLHB
.286.475.18913%45%19%
.294.449.15510%45%18%
.250.418.16811%39%26%
.205.344.1399%34%36%
.195.316.1218%32%38%
.213.356.14310%33%32%
.266.421.15511%39%26%
.240.366.12610%36%30%
#4Willson ContrerasWillson ContrerasRHB
.290.554.26414%49%26%
.298.523.22511%50%24%
.254.487.23312%43%35%
.238.458.22012%43%42%
.226.420.19411%40%45%
.246.474.22813%42%38%
.246.448.20212%39%38%
.223.390.16711%36%45%
#5Jarren DuranJarren DuranLHB
.210.395.18512%42%30%
.216.373.1579%43%28%
.184.348.16410%37%41%
.151.286.1359%32%56%
.144.263.1198%30%60%
.156.296.1409%31%50%
.196.350.15411%37%41%
.177.305.12810%34%48%
#6Caleb DurbinCaleb DurbinRHB
.235.409.1743%32%13%
.242.387.1453%33%13%
.206.360.1543%29%18%
.193.338.1453%28%22%
.183.310.1273%27%23%
.200.350.1503%28%20%
.200.331.1313%26%20%
.181.288.1072%24%23%
#7Anthony SeiglerAnthony SeiglerSHB
.350.495.1450%45%28%
.360.467.1070%45%26%
.306.435.1290%39%37%
.273.389.1160%37%47%
.260.357.0970%35%50%
.283.403.1200%36%42%
.313.421.1080%38%39%
.283.366.0830%35%46%
#8Carlos NarváezCarlos NarváezRHB
.215.319.1049%43%26%
.221.301.0807%44%25%
.189.280.0918%38%35%
.177.263.0868%38%42%
.168.242.0747%36%45%
.183.273.0908%37%38%
.183.258.0757%35%39%
.166.224.0587%32%45%
#9Tsung-Che ChengTsung-Che ChengLHB
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Ben Rice
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+424M52.000325N/A22N/A.281.372.584.302.40512.3%91.6
Willson Contreras
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+439M41.000321N/A16N/A.276.371.513.244.3829.0%90.1
Austin Wells
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+649M39.000182N/A4N/A.165.269.253.217.24012.6%91.4
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+807M28.000313N/A12N/A.228.313.409.179.31910.9%90.3
Anthony Volpe
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+807M36.000121N/A1N/A.260.364.356.179.32814.0%90.5
Carlos Narváez
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+807M34.000149N/A2N/A.205.279.295.178.2627.4%90.5
Amed Rosario
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+904M35.000132N/A7N/A.248.288.471.160.3236.1%90.0
Wilyer Abreu
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+782M39.000333N/A10N/A.272.335.440.173.3389.0%89.8
Jarren Duran
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+816M30.000322N/A12N/A.200.258.366.164.2746.5%89.5
Cody Bellinger
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+1065M42.000340N/A11N/A.267.365.458.188.36013.8%89.0
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1229M33.000216N/A14N/A.301.361.571.129.3997.4%89.2
Jasson Domínguez
SHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1229M33.00078N/A3N/A.230.260.432.131.2992.6%89.3
José Caballero
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1267M32.000246N/A8N/A.259.317.411.111.3216.1%88.8
Tsung-Che Cheng
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1192M32.000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A.000N/AN/A89.8
Nate Eaton
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1351M28.00021N/A1N/A.250.429.563.087.42919.0%88.2
Ceddanne Rafaela
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1308M28.000299N/A7N/A.285.336.448.160.3435.0%86.1
Caleb Durbin
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1422M31.000255N/A6N/A.224.281.379.157.2905.9%85.0
Anthony Seigler
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+1447M27.00026N/AN/AN/A.333.385.458.016.3717.7%86.4
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Carlos Rodón
Carlos Rodón
NYY · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season41.3173.207.267.0601.2830.6512.7%27.8%26.6%9.0%27.8%10.025.8%38.5%24.0%
vs LHB10.747.238.338.381.1431.4121.6910.6%27.8%23.4%27.8%9.285.8%38.5%24.0%
vs RHB30.7126.193.258.220.0271.2410.2913.5%27.8%27.8%27.8%10.275.8%38.5%24.0%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3028.3114.223.311.0881.2030.959.6%27.8%25.4%27.8%9.215.8%38.5%24.0%
L1516.369.270.365.0951.4121.108.7%27.8%27.5%27.8%10.475.8%38.5%24.0%
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray
BOS · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season76.3313.245.338.0931.1991.066.4%22.4%21.1%10.1%22.4%7.787.3%36.6%20.1%
vs LHB45.3191.250.316.352.1021.3061.197.9%22.4%21.5%22.4%8.147.3%36.6%20.1%
vs RHB30.3122.231.270.308.0771.0530.894.1%22.4%20.5%22.4%7.427.3%36.6%20.1%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3032.3131.238.361.1231.1851.396.9%22.4%24.4%22.4%8.917.3%36.6%20.1%
L1520.080.224.342.1181.0531.355.0%22.4%27.5%22.4%9.907.3%36.6%20.1%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Carlos Rodón
Carlos Rodón
NYY · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball44.3%.157.324.255.0980.0%24.5%21.1%20.3%0.0%94.40.0%55.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider24.9%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker15.0%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%93.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup14.5%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball1.4%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray
BOS · RHP · 8 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Cutter20.8%.298.349.421.1230.0%15.2%1.6%5.9%0.0%88.40.0%26.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball20.1%.304.400.482.1780.0%13.4%7.7%21.7%0.0%91.80.0%31.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sweeper19.1%.122.169.257.1350.0%40.5%48.0%23.8%0.0%84.90.0%52.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker17.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%92.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball16.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%79.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup5.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%86.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slow Curve0.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%72.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider0.1%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%84.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-06-28 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jun 2026