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KC
KC@BOS
FIRST PITCH
BOS
Game 12 of 15 Sun · Sep 13, 7:05 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · KC vs Payton Tolle · BOS vs Noah Cameron

#1Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer AbreuLHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
BOS· RFvs KC LHP Cameron
🟢 Strong
Test
66
Ceil
73
Likely
62
kHR
73
Zone
50
Form
81%
EV
89.8
Brl%
12.6%
ISO
.210
xwOBA
.350
xwOBAc
.492
SwStr%
11.7%
PullBrl
4.5%
SwtSp%
36.3%
HH%
43.7%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .210, off-platoon but elite power+513MODEL
#2Matthew Lugo
Matthew LugoRHB#6 · Secondary Power
KC· RFvs BOS LHP Tolle
🟡 Viable
Test
64
Ceil
62
Likely
55
kHR
71
Zone
39
Form
93%
EV
91.8
Brl%
11.6%
ISO
.232
xwOBA
.332
xwOBAc
.464
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
4.9%
SwtSp%
33.5%
HH%
47.4%
strong Barrel 12%, power ISO .232 (matchup soft)+555MODEL
#3Jac Caglianone
Jac CaglianoneLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
KC· DHvs BOS LHP Tolle
🟡 Viable
Test
62
Ceil
67
Likely
56
kHR
72
Zone
34
Form
87%
EV
93.1
Brl%
13.7%
ISO
.211
xwOBA
.357
xwOBAc
.534
SwStr%
15.8%
PullBrl
6.3%
SwtSp%
33.4%
HH%
54.4%
strong Barrel 14%, power ISO .211 (matchup soft)+521MODEL
#4Bobby Witt Jr.
Bobby Witt Jr.RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
KC· SSvs BOS LHP Tolle
🟠 Longshot
Test
58
Ceil
65
Likely
55
kHR
68
Zone
40
Form
70%
EV
92.3
Brl%
12.1%
ISO
.171
xwOBA
.385
xwOBAc
.563
SwStr%
11.8%
PullBrl
3.6%
SwtSp%
38.0%
HH%
50.7%
strong Barrel 12% (matchup soft)+609MODEL
#5Salvador Perez
Salvador PerezRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
KC· 1Bvs BOS LHP Tolle
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
55
Likely
46
kHR
58
Zone
33
Form
64%
EV
89.0
Brl%
10.2%
ISO
.154
xwOBA
.311
xwOBAc
.462
SwStr%
14.1%
PullBrl
4.1%
SwtSp%
34.8%
HH%
42.7%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+816MODEL
#6Roman Anthony
Roman AnthonyLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
BOS· LFvs KC LHP Cameron
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
54
Likely
46
kHR
56
Zone
36
Form
59%
EV
90.3
Brl%
8.6%
ISO
.171
xwOBA
.412
xwOBAc
.523
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.6%
HH%
42.8%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+863MODEL
#7Trevor Story
Trevor StoryRHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power
BOS· SSvs KC LHP Cameron
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
52
Likely
45
kHR
56
Zone
36
Form
67%
EV
90.2
Brl%
8.5%
ISO
.170
xwOBA
.351
xwOBAc
.480
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.5%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.8%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+863MODEL
#8Jarren Duran
Jarren DuranLHB#7 · Secondary Power
BOS· CFvs KC LHP Cameron
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
51
Likely
44
kHR
57
Zone
30
Form
66%
EV
89.9
Brl%
9.7%
ISO
.159
xwOBA
.299
xwOBAc
.430
SwStr%
17.3%
PullBrl
3.8%
SwtSp%
31.7%
HH%
40.6%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+825MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — KC
vs Payton Tolle (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

KCKC
vs Payton Tolle (BOS)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — BOS
vs Noah Cameron (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

BOSBOS
vs Noah Cameron (KC)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
KC + BOS · Combined Hitter Matrix
Both lineups in one table · sticky HITTER + TEAM columns · filter to one side with the chips
KCvsBOS

KC + BOS hitters

combined matrix · click any header to sort · click a row for detail
HitterTeamHandMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
KC Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
KC hitters vsPayton Tolle(BOS)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Nick LoftinNick LoftinRHB
.245.408.1635%30%15%
.252.386.1344%31%14%
.214.359.1454%27%20%
.201.337.1364%26%24%
.191.310.1194%25%26%
.208.349.1414%26%22%
.208.330.1224%24%22%
.188.287.0993%23%26%
#2Bobby Witt Jr.Bobby Witt Jr.RHB
.294.486.19213%55%21%
.302.459.15710%56%20%
.258.427.16911%48%29%
.241.402.16111%48%34%
.229.369.14010%45%37%
.250.416.16612%47%31%
.250.393.14311%44%32%
.226.342.11610%41%37%
#3Jac CaglianoneJac CaglianoneLHB
.296.532.23615%59%25%
.305.503.19812%60%23%
.259.468.20913%52%34%
.213.386.17311%45%46%
.202.354.15210%43%49%
.221.399.17812%44%41%
.276.472.19614%52%34%
.249.410.16112%48%39%
#4Salvador PerezSalvador PerezRHB
.243.415.17211%46%21%
.249.392.1439%47%20%
.213.365.15210%41%29%
.199.343.14410%40%34%
.189.314.1259%38%37%
.206.355.14910%39%31%
.206.336.1309%37%32%
.187.292.1058%34%37%
#5Michael MasseyMichael MasseyLHB
.295.474.1796%44%17%
.303.448.1455%45%16%
.259.417.1585%39%23%
.212.343.1315%34%31%
.202.315.1134%32%33%
.220.355.1355%33%28%
.275.420.1456%39%23%
.248.365.1175%36%27%
#6Matthew LugoMatthew LugoRHB
.191.197.0060%0%41%
.197.186.0000%0%38%
.167.173.0060%0%55%
.157.162.0050%0%66%
.149.149.0000%0%70%
.162.168.0060%0%59%
.163.159.0000%0%60%
.147.138.0000%0%70%
#7Isaac CollinsIsaac CollinsSHB
.233.365.1326%43%18%
.240.345.1054%44%17%
.204.321.1175%38%24%
.182.287.1055%36%31%
.173.264.0914%34%33%
.189.297.1085%35%28%
.209.311.1025%36%25%
.189.270.0814%34%30%
#8Luke MaileLuke MaileRHB
.150.278.1285%28%23%
.154.262.1084%29%21%
.132.244.1124%25%31%
.123.229.1064%25%37%
.117.210.0934%23%39%
.128.237.1094%24%33%
.128.225.0974%23%34%
.115.195.0804%21%39%
#9Tyler TolbertTyler TolbertRHB
.314.453.1393%28%25%
.323.427.1043%29%24%
.275.398.1233%25%34%
.257.374.1173%25%41%
.245.343.0983%23%43%
.267.387.1203%24%36%
.267.366.0993%23%37%
.241.318.0773%21%43%
BOS Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
BOS hitters vsNoah Cameron(KC)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Roman AnthonyRoman AnthonyLHB
.253.410.15714%54%25%
.260.388.12811%55%24%
.222.361.13912%48%34%
.182.297.11510%42%47%
.173.273.1009%39%50%
.188.308.12011%41%42%
.236.364.12813%48%34%
.213.316.10311%45%40%
#2Mickey GasperMickey GasperSHB
.278.527.24912%41%15%
.286.498.2129%42%14%
.244.464.22010%36%20%
.217.415.19810%34%25%
.207.381.1749%32%27%
.225.429.20410%33%22%
.249.449.20010%35%21%
.225.390.1659%32%24%
#3Adley RutschmanAdley RutschmanSHB
.251.456.2058%43%14%
.258.430.1726%44%13%
.220.401.1817%38%19%
.196.359.1637%36%24%
.186.329.1436%34%26%
.203.371.1687%35%22%
.225.388.1637%37%20%
.203.338.1356%34%24%
#4Wilyer AbreuWilyer AbreuLHB
.270.504.23414%48%21%
.278.476.19811%48%19%
.236.444.20812%42%28%
.194.365.17111%36%38%
.184.335.1519%34%41%
.201.378.17711%36%34%
.251.447.19613%42%28%
.227.389.16211%39%33%
#5Trevor StoryTrevor StoryRHB
.246.368.1225%41%26%
.253.348.0954%41%25%
.215.324.1095%36%36%
.201.304.1035%35%43%
.192.279.0874%34%46%
.209.315.1065%35%38%
.209.298.0895%33%39%
.189.259.0704%30%46%
#6Nick SogardNick SogardSHB
.280.441.1615%32%17%
.288.416.1284%33%16%
.246.388.1424%28%24%
.219.347.1284%27%30%
.208.318.1104%25%32%
.227.359.1324%26%27%
.251.375.1244%27%25%
.227.326.0994%25%29%
#7Jarren DuranJarren DuranLHB
.215.392.17711%44%29%
.221.370.1498%45%27%
.189.345.1569%39%39%
.155.284.1298%34%53%
.147.260.1137%32%57%
.160.294.1348%33%48%
.200.347.14710%39%39%
.181.302.1219%36%46%
#8Caleb DurbinCaleb DurbinRHB
.260.408.1483%27%14%
.268.386.1182%28%13%
.228.359.1313%24%19%
.214.337.1233%24%23%
.203.310.1072%23%24%
.221.349.1283%24%20%
.221.330.1093%22%21%
.200.287.0872%21%24%
#9Isiah Kiner-FalefaIsiah Kiner-FalefaRHB
.281.376.0953%30%14%
.289.355.0662%30%13%
.247.331.0842%26%19%
.231.311.0802%26%23%
.219.285.0662%25%25%
.239.322.0832%25%21%
.239.304.0652%24%21%
.216.264.0482%22%25%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHand★SpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Wilyer Abreu
LHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+513M50.000632N/A24N/A.257.337.467.210.34710.6%89.8
Matthew Lugo
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+555M39.00012N/AN/AN/A.182.250.182.232.2078.3%91.8
Jac Caglianone
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+521M34.000511N/A23N/A.282.331.493.211.3555.9%93.1
Bobby Witt Jr.
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+609M40.000576N/A18N/A.280.359.450.171.34910.8%92.3
Salvador Perez
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+816M33.000582N/A19N/A.231.276.384.154.2864.0%89.0
Roman Anthony
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+863M36.000192N/A4N/A.241.344.380.171.32313.0%90.3
Trevor Story
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+863M36.000225N/A3N/A.234.262.341.170.2643.6%90.2
Jarren Duran
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+825M30.000577N/A20N/A.205.261.363.159.2716.4%89.9
Nick Loftin
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M33.000397N/A7N/A.233.318.378.149.3109.8%89.7
Luke Maile
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1229M31.00038N/A1N/A.143.211.257.112.2137.9%88.8
Tyler Tolbert
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1267M30.000135N/A3N/A.299.366.419.100.3488.9%88.5
Adley Rutschman
SHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M34.000367N/A12N/A.239.319.422.146.32410.4%89.7
Michael Massey
LHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1351M28.000402N/A11N/A.281.315.439.069.3265.2%87.7
Isaac Collins
SHB#7 · Secondary Power+1287M30.000484N/A6N/A.222.324.338.116.30112.0%88.4
Mickey Gasper
SHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1351M30.000202N/A9N/A.265.373.488.074.37612.4%87.8
Nick Sogard
SHB#6 · Secondary Power+1329M30.000225N/A4N/A.267.362.408.084.34312.4%88.1
Caleb Durbin
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1422M35.000538N/A12N/A.248.327.378.130.3148.4%83.3
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
RHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1351M30.000155N/A2N/A.268.344.348.072.31410.3%87.8
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Noah Cameron
Noah Cameron
KC · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season153.3645.236—.317.0811.23160.947.4%26.5%21.2%14.3%26.5%8.04——7.7%37.7%26.4%——
vs LHB36.3157.270.324.372.1021.3551.245.7%26.5%22.3%—26.5%8.67——7.7%37.7%26.4%——
vs RHB122.3512.217.273.287.0701.18110.818.2%26.5%21.5%—26.5%8.09——7.7%37.7%26.4%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3031.0118.157—.213.0560.8420.587.6%26.5%22.9%—26.5%7.84——7.7%37.7%26.4%——
L1517.069.222—.317.0951.1221.067.2%26.5%24.6%—26.5%9.00——7.7%37.7%26.4%——
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
BOS · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season137.0551.218—.306.0881.08150.996.7%27.6%28.9%20.3%27.6%10.45——6.6%35.0%27.9%——
vs LHB37.7157.242.307.362.1201.1761.435.1%27.6%20.4%—27.6%7.65——6.6%35.0%27.9%——
vs RHB98.0394.205.262.279.0741.0690.837.4%27.6%32.2%—27.6%11.66——6.6%35.0%27.9%——
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A————
L3030.0116.206—.262.0561.0020.606.9%27.6%30.2%—27.6%10.50——6.6%35.0%27.9%——
L1517.068.222—.317.0951.0621.065.9%27.6%36.8%—27.6%13.24——6.6%35.0%27.9%——
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Noah Cameron
Noah Cameron
KC · LHP · 7 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball24.3%—.250.332.371.121—0.0%17.7%12.9%10.1%0.0%92.5——0.0%49.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter21.1%—.291.348.440.149—0.0%21.6%11.0%19.8%0.0%89.8——0.0%36.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup20.9%—.200.281.333.133—0.0%35.9%21.6%19.1%0.0%81.0——0.0%24.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball16.5%—.152.211.250.098—0.0%30.1%38.7%22.0%0.0%81.8——0.0%34.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider12.7%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.2——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker4.5%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%91.5——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Eephus0.0%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%57.4——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
BOS · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball44.9%—.192.283.346.154—0.0%29.6%34.0%24.8%0.0%96.1——0.0%36.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker23.2%—.299.376.462.163—0.0%17.1%11.6%22.1%0.0%95.0——0.0%37.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Cutter19.5%—.224.268.347.123—0.0%28.5%23.3%20.7%0.0%88.6——0.0%28.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball9.5%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%83.0——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup3.0%—.000.000.000.000—0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.6——0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-09-13 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Sep 2026