Clutch Algorithm
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STL
STL@CHC
FINAL
CHC
Game 1 of 15 Fri · Jul 3, 8:05 PM
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CLUTCH HR Matchup
Verdict cards sorted by Test Score · tap a star to favorite

CLUTCH HR Matchup Table

18 batters · STL vs David Peterson · CHC vs Andre Pallante

#1Jordan Walker
Jordan WalkerRHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
STL· RFvs CHC LHP Peterson
🟢 Strong
Test
68
Ceil
57
Likely
54
kHR
76
Zone
34
Form
97%
EV
93.7
Brl%
13.4%
ISO
.228
xwOBA
.361
xwOBAc
.530
SwStr%
16.2%
PullBrl
5.2%
SwtSp%
34.5%
HH%
50.9%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .228, 93.7 EV+455MODEL
#2Blaze Jordan
Blaze JordanRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
STL· 3Bvs CHC LHP Peterson
🟢 Strong
Test
68
Ceil
57
Likely
54
kHR
76
Zone
34
Form
97%
EV
93.7
Brl%
13.4%
ISO
.228
xwOBA
.361
xwOBAc
.530
SwStr%
16.2%
PullBrl
5.2%
SwtSp%
34.5%
HH%
50.9%
strong Barrel 13%, power ISO .228, 93.7 EV+455MODEL
#3Michael Busch
Michael BuschLHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power
CHC· 1Bvs STL RHP Pallante
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
56
Likely
48
kHR
61
Zone
34
Form
67%
EV
88.5
Brl%
11.3%
ISO
.162
xwOBA
.348
xwOBAc
.438
SwStr%
10.6%
PullBrl
4.2%
SwtSp%
33.0%
HH%
41.7%
strong Barrel 11% (matchup soft)+728MODEL
#4Seiya Suzuki
Seiya SuzukiRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
CHC· RFvs STL RHP Pallante
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
55
Likely
46
kHR
58
Zone
32
Form
75%
EV
89.4
Brl%
8.4%
ISO
.192
xwOBA
.331
xwOBAc
.464
SwStr%
10.9%
PullBrl
3.7%
SwtSp%
37.9%
HH%
41.1%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+807MODEL
#5Carson Kelly
Carson KellyRHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot
CHC· Cvs STL RHP Pallante
🟠 Longshot
Test
50
Ceil
58
Likely
48
kHR
59
Zone
34
Form
73%
EV
90.5
Brl%
8.9%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.372
xwOBAc
.463
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.7%
SwtSp%
32.7%
HH%
43.4%
borderline · only at +500 odds or better+790MODEL
#6Nelson Velázquez
Nelson VelázquezRHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power
STL· DHvs CHC LHP Peterson
🟠 Longshot
Test
46
Ceil
46
Likely
43
kHR
56
Zone
35
Form
64%
EV
90.2
Brl%
8.3%
ISO
.166
xwOBA
.325
xwOBAc
.383
SwStr%
11.3%
PullBrl
3.4%
SwtSp%
32.5%
HH%
42.5%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+873MODEL
#7Pedro Ramírez
Pedro RamírezSHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot
CHC· 2Bvs STL RHP Pallante
🟠 Longshot
Test
36
Ceil
56
Likely
45
kHR
48
Zone
39
Form
61%
EV
90.3
Brl%
6.6%
ISO
.179
xwOBA
.355
xwOBAc
.502
SwStr%
8.1%
PullBrl
3.2%
SwtSp%
36.1%
HH%
43.8%
off-platoon · skip unless props are cheap+1141MODEL
#8JJ Wetherholt
JJ WetherholtLHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)
STL· 2Bvs CHC LHP Peterson
🔴 Fade
Test
32
Ceil
46
Likely
40
kHR
46
Zone
37
Form
59%
EV
90.0
Brl%
7.0%
ISO
.140
xwOBA
.351
xwOBAc
.479
SwStr%
8.9%
PullBrl
2.8%
SwtSp%
35.5%
HH%
44.4%
off-platoon+1192MODEL
Top 5 HR Threats — STL
vs David Peterson (LHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

STLSTL
vs David Peterson (CHC)LHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
Top 5 HR Threats — CHC
vs Andre Pallante (RHP)

Top 5 HR Threats

CHCCHC
vs Andre Pallante (STL)RHP
#PlayerHRScTRUEOddsImplEDGEGradeTagNotes
STL vs David Peterson
9 hitters · primary stack for the away offense
STL

STL hitters

vsDavid Peterson(CHCCHC)LHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
RHBSTLvs CHC LHP Peterson#3 · Premium RBI/Power+455M68.057.134.00097%75.61,365230.228.361.53016.2%5.2%93.713.4%34.5%25.4%50.9%11.954
RHBSTLvs CHC LHP Peterson#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+455M68.057.134.00097%75.61,365230.228.361.53016.2%5.2%93.713.4%34.5%25.4%50.9%11.954
RHBSTLvs CHC LHP Peterson#4 · Premium RBI/Power+873M46.046.235.00064%55.6897144.166.325.38311.3%3.4%90.28.3%32.5%31.3%42.5%15.043
LHBSTLvs CHC LHP Peterson#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1192M32.045.937.00059%45.61,420257.140.351.4798.9%2.8%90.07.0%35.5%30.5%44.4%13.840
LHBSTLvs CHC LHP Peterson#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1248M32.038.931.00040%43.617928.111.218.25511.3%2.2%88.85.5%31.7%30.2%38.3%14.036
RHBSTLvs CHC LHP Peterson#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M32.043.232.00051%45.11,517254.133.310.41111.3%2.7%89.36.7%32.0%30.7%40.0%14.438
RHBSTLvs CHC LHP Peterson#7 · Secondary Power+1192M32.045.632.00040%45.127350.134.383.49111.3%2.7%89.36.7%32.0%30.7%40.0%14.439
LHBSTLvs CHC LHP Peterson#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1351M30.037.929.00028%39.825438.071.271.30411.3%1.4%87.83.5%31.1%29.4%35.3%13.333
LHBSTLvs CHC LHP Peterson#6 · Secondary Power+1900M0.00.0.0000%0.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.00
CHC vs Andre Pallante
9 hitters · primary stack for the home offense
CHC

CHC hitters

vsAndre Pallante(STLSTL)RHP9 hitters · ranked by Test Score
HitterHandTmMtchSpotOddsTestCeilZoneFormkHRPchBIPISOxwOBAxwOBAcSwStPBr%EVBrl%Swt%FBHHLALk
LHBCHCvs STL RHP Pallante#3 · Premium RBI/Power+728M50.055.634.00067%61.31,505227.162.348.43810.6%4.2%88.511.3%33.0%36.1%41.7%15.548
RHBCHCvs STL RHP Pallante#4 · Premium RBI/Power+807M50.054.532.00075%58.01,190187.192.331.46410.9%3.7%89.48.4%37.9%27.4%41.1%18.146
RHBCHCvs STL RHP Pallante#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+790M50.058.434.00073%58.81,642289.179.372.46311.3%3.7%90.58.9%32.7%31.6%43.4%15.248
SHBCHCvs STL RHP Pallante#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1141M36.055.739.00061%47.61,225224.179.355.5028.1%3.2%90.36.6%36.1%30.8%43.8%19.545
RHBCHCvs STL RHP Pallante#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M32.045.532.00015%46.281.000.065.00011.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.739
RHBCHCvs STL RHP Pallante#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M32.055.432.00015%46.2477.000.353.54611.3%3.1%89.87.5%32.2%31.0%41.2%14.742
LHBCHCvs STL RHP Pallante#7 · Secondary Power+1192M32.053.231.00050%45.11,895297.134.333.36611.3%2.7%89.36.7%32.0%30.7%40.0%14.441
RHBCHCvs STL RHP Pallante#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1308M30.048.733.00036%41.21,525273.101.317.4257.0%2.3%87.84.7%32.1%22.7%37.5%17.438
RHBCHCvs STL RHP Pallante#6 · Secondary Power+1499M30.042.735.00021%36.31,502312.097.322.4654.9%0.3%85.51.0%35.8%21.2%28.2%13.235
STL Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
STL hitters vsDavid Peterson(CHC)LHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1JJ WetherholtJJ WetherholtLHB
.274.433.1598%48%18%
.282.409.1276%49%17%
.240.381.1417%42%24%
.197.314.1176%37%33%
.187.288.1015%35%35%
.204.325.1216%36%29%
.255.384.1297%43%24%
.231.334.1036%39%28%
#2Jimmy CrooksJimmy CrooksLHB
.172.275.1036%54%27%
.177.260.0835%55%25%
.151.242.0915%48%37%
.124.199.0755%41%50%
.118.183.0654%39%54%
.128.206.0785%41%45%
.160.244.0846%48%37%
.145.212.0675%44%43%
#3Jordan WalkerJordan WalkerRHB
.306.561.25515%55%27%
.314.529.21511%56%25%
.268.493.22513%48%36%
.251.463.21213%48%43%
.238.425.18711%45%46%
.260.480.22013%47%39%
.260.454.19412%45%40%
.235.394.15911%41%46%
#4Nelson VelázquezNelson VelázquezRHB
.323.637.31416%69%31%
.333.602.26912%71%29%
.283.560.27714%61%42%
.265.527.26214%61%51%
.252.483.23112%57%54%
.275.545.27014%59%45%
.275.516.24113%56%46%
.249.448.19912%52%54%
#5Pedro PagésPedro PagésRHB
.235.387.1526%41%23%
.242.365.1235%42%22%
.206.340.1346%36%32%
.193.320.1276%36%38%
.183.293.1105%34%40%
.200.331.1316%35%34%
.200.313.1135%33%35%
.181.272.0915%31%40%
#6Bryan TorresBryan TorresLHB
.246.505.2599%30%17%
.253.477.2247%30%16%
.215.445.2307%26%23%
.177.366.1896%23%31%
.168.336.1686%22%33%
.183.379.1967%22%28%
.229.448.2198%26%23%
.207.389.1827%24%26%
#7José FermínJosé FermínRHB
.279.418.1392%32%12%
.287.395.1082%33%11%
.245.368.1232%28%16%
.229.345.1162%28%19%
.218.317.0992%27%21%
.237.358.1212%28%17%
.238.338.1002%26%18%
.215.294.0792%24%21%
#8Blaze JordanBlaze JordanRHB
.225.386.1618%45%16%
.231.364.1336%46%15%
.197.339.1427%39%22%
.184.319.1357%39%26%
.175.292.1176%37%28%
.191.330.1397%38%23%
.191.312.1217%36%24%
.173.271.0986%34%28%
#9Nathan ChurchNathan ChurchLHB
.267.443.17610%35%20%
.274.418.1447%36%19%
.234.389.1558%31%27%
.192.321.1297%27%37%
.182.294.1126%25%39%
.199.332.1337%26%33%
.248.392.1449%31%27%
.225.341.1168%29%32%
CHC Pitch-Mix Matrix
BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% vs each pitch type
CHC hitters vsAndre Pallante(STL)RHP·BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf% per cell
BatterFastballSinkerCutterSliderSweeperCurveballChangeupSplitter
StatBA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%BA / SLG / ISO / Brl% / HH% / Whf%
#1Justin DeanJustin DeanRHB
.5251.080.5000%36%13%
.5401.020.4800%37%12%
.460.950.4900%32%18%
.377.782.4050%28%24%
.359.718.3590%26%26%
.391.810.4190%27%22%
.489.957.4680%32%18%
.442.832.3900%29%21%
#2Alex BregmanAlex BregmanRHB
.252.368.1165%41%15%
.259.348.0894%41%14%
.221.324.1035%36%20%
.181.267.0864%31%27%
.172.245.0734%29%29%
.188.276.0884%30%24%
.235.326.0915%36%20%
.212.284.0724%33%23%
#3Michael BuschMichael BuschLHB
.247.429.18212%45%22%
.254.405.15110%46%21%
.216.377.16111%40%30%
.202.354.15211%39%36%
.192.325.13310%37%38%
.210.367.15711%39%32%
.210.347.13710%36%33%
.190.302.1129%34%38%
#4Seiya SuzukiSeiya SuzukiRHB
.288.503.2159%44%22%
.296.475.1797%45%21%
.252.443.1918%39%30%
.207.364.1577%34%42%
.197.334.1376%32%45%
.214.377.1637%33%37%
.268.446.1788%39%31%
.242.388.1467%36%36%
#5Kevin AlcántaraKevin AlcántaraRHB
.263.270.0070%15%26%
.270.255.0000%16%24%
.230.237.0070%14%35%
.189.196.0070%12%47%
.179.179.0000%11%51%
.196.202.0060%12%42%
.244.239.0000%14%35%
.221.208.0000%13%40%
#6Nico HoernerNico HoernerRHB
.252.364.112110%31%10%
.259.344.08585%31%9%
.221.320.09995%27%13%
.181.264.08383%23%18%
.172.242.07074%22%19%
.188.273.08585%23%16%
.235.322.087100%27%13%
.212.280.06888%25%15%
#7Michael ConfortoMichael ConfortoLHB
.260.544.28416%53%26%
.268.514.24612%54%25%
.228.479.25114%46%35%
.214.450.23614%46%42%
.203.413.21012%44%45%
.221.466.24514%45%38%
.221.440.21913%43%39%
.200.383.18312%39%45%
#8Carson KellyCarson KellyRHB
.295.424.1297%41%18%
.303.401.0985%42%17%
.259.373.1146%36%24%
.212.307.0955%31%33%
.202.282.0805%30%36%
.220.318.0985%31%30%
.275.376.1016%36%25%
.248.327.0796%34%29%
#9Pedro RamírezPedro RamírezSHB
.263.394.1315%44%16%
.270.372.1024%45%15%
.230.347.1174%39%22%
.205.310.1054%37%27%
.195.285.0904%35%29%
.212.321.1094%36%25%
.235.336.1014%38%23%
.212.292.0804%35%27%
Batter Intelligence
Full Stats · Strikes · Statcast — every batter in the game
BatterHandSpotOddsZonePAL5HRNrHRBAOBPSLGISOwOBABB%EV
Jordan Walker
RHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+455M34.000350N/A19N/A.291.346.519.228.3727.4%93.7
Blaze Jordan
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+455M34.00063N/A1N/A.214.238.357.228.2504.8%93.7
Michael Busch
LHB#3 · Premium RBI/Power+728M34.000386N/A11N/A.235.368.397.162.34415.5%88.5
Seiya Suzuki
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+807M32.000305N/A13N/A.274.357.466.192.35710.8%89.4
Carson Kelly
RHB#8 · Low-Lineup Longshot+790M34.000223N/A4N/A.281.368.393.179.34210.8%90.5
Nelson Velázquez
RHB#4 · Premium RBI/Power+873M35.00044N/A3N/A.308.386.590.166.4199.1%90.2
Pedro Ramírez
SHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1141M39.00056N/A1N/A.250.291.365.179.2905.4%90.3
JJ Wetherholt
LHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1192M37.000364N/A12N/A.261.357.401.140.33810.2%90.0
Jimmy Crooks
LHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1248M31.00061N/A1N/A.164.246.255.111.2328.2%88.8
Pedro Pagés
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1192M32.000148N/A4N/A.224.264.358.133.2734.1%89.3
José Fermín
RHB#7 · Secondary Power+1192M32.000136N/A3N/A.266.319.387.134.3127.4%89.3
Justin Dean
RHB#1 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1175M32.0005N/AN/AN/A.500.6001.000.000.63720.0%89.8
Kevin Alcántara
RHB#5 · Premium RBI/Power+1175M32.00013N/AN/AN/A.250.308.250.000.2597.7%89.8
Michael Conforto
LHB#7 · Secondary Power+1192M31.000140N/A7N/A.248.343.504.134.36312.9%89.3
Nathan Church
LHB#9 · Low-Lineup Longshot+1351M29.000220N/A7N/A.254.295.410.071.3075.0%87.8
Alex Bregman
RHB#2 · Table Setter (Extra PA)+1308M33.000391N/A7N/A.240.340.341.101.30911.8%87.8
Nico Hoerner
RHB#6 · Secondary Power+1499M35.000385N/A4N/A.240.317.337.097.2959.1%85.5
Bryan Torres
LHB#6 · Secondary Power+1900M.00053N/A3N/A.234.308.468.000.3369.4%0.0
Pitcher Intelligence
Season · vs LHB · vs RHB · Home · Away · L30 · L15
Andre Pallante
Andre Pallante
STL · RHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season95.0398.244.318.0741.2290.856.8%21.6%17.6%11.6%21.6%6.635.9%35.4%18.2%
vs LHB50.3212.254.302.330.0761.2950.897.1%21.6%16.5%21.6%6.265.9%35.4%18.2%
vs RHB44.3186.224.270.293.0691.1540.816.5%21.6%18.8%21.6%7.115.9%35.4%18.2%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3031.3124.246.271.0251.0510.293.2%21.6%15.3%21.6%5.465.9%35.4%18.2%
L1518.376.301.301.0001.3100.002.6%21.6%10.5%21.6%3.935.9%35.4%18.2%
David Peterson
David Peterson
CHC · LHP · 7 split rows
SplitIPBFBAAwOBASLGISOWHIPHRHR/9BB%WhfK%PA%SwSK/91stPSMB%Brl%HHFBHRFBPAir
Season46.7227.327.386.0591.9340.7710.6%21.6%18.9%16.1%21.6%8.296.7%40.7%19.5%
vs LHB25.3116.264.320.373.1091.3841.425.2%21.6%28.4%21.6%11.726.7%40.7%19.5%
vs RHB51.7246.306.350.361.0551.8240.7011.0%21.6%14.2%21.6%6.106.7%40.7%19.5%
HomePhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
AwayPhase 3N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
L3023.3111.350.440.0901.9731.169.9%21.6%15.3%21.6%6.566.7%40.7%19.5%
L1513.363.345.500.1551.8832.027.9%21.6%15.9%21.6%6.756.7%40.7%19.5%
Pitcher Arsenal
Full pitch-by-pitch attack matrix · 23 columns
Andre Pallante
Andre Pallante
STL · RHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
4-Seam Fastball30.3%.301.370.466.1650.0%13.5%6.2%8.5%0.0%95.20.0%43.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider30.2%.190.256.314.1240.0%31.6%30.4%21.7%0.0%87.70.0%35.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Sinker19.0%.254.336.324.0700.0%14.5%11.9%12.8%0.0%95.40.0%22.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Knuckle Curve17.7%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%78.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Splitter2.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%88.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
David Peterson
David Peterson
CHC · LHP · 5 pitches
PitchUseBBEBAwOBASLGISOHRBB%WhfK%PA%SwSVeloEVLABrl%HHPBr%PAirFBLDGB
Sinker28.7%.293.411.478.1850.0%11.8%7.0%22.9%0.0%92.10.0%52.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Slider24.0%.221.238.302.0810.0%33.1%33.7%27.3%0.0%86.20.0%41.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4-Seam Fastball23.4%.370.428.537.1670.0%13.6%13.1%12.7%0.0%92.20.0%23.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Curveball12.2%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%80.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Changeup11.8%.000.000.000.0000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%85.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Game Intelligence · ALGO HR Engine™Slate 2026-07-03 CT
Clutch AlgorithmClutch.Algorithm

Sharp MLB HR research built on the CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 edge engine. Cross-team enforced. Cross-validated against The Odds API, MLB StatsAPI, Savant, and Open-Meteo.

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Model 11.12 · CLUTCHMASTER V4.2 · Updated Jul 2026